According to some reports, they are already doing that. For example, Mombasa is reported to have had an influx of Somalis investing in property.
Pirates
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Look like our defense force has thwarts another piracy attempt.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_369630.html
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_369630.html
Please see the 7 recommendations written by Robert Beckman* and Tommy Koh** to President Obama and published in the NY Times. The two authors of the OP-ED recommend the following measures:
The SUA and Hostages Conventions are potentially useful tools because they are broadly accepted. If alleged offenders are present in the territory of a state party, the state has an obligation to take them into custody and to either extradite them or prosecute them.
In conclusion, we urge President Obama and Secretary Clinton to show decisive leadership in leading the international community to defeat the Somali pirates. They will have both the law and world public opinion on their side. In the 21st century, it is unacceptable for the world’s shipping to be helpless and continue to be preyed upon by the Somali pirates."
Notes:
*Robert Charles Beckman is the director of the Center for International Law at the National University of Singapore.
**Tommy Koh is ambassador-at-large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore and was president of the UN Conference on the Law of the Sea from 1980 to 1982.
"...First, the United States and other states with warships in the area should review their rules of engagement when confronting pirate ships. Warships should have the authority to use lethal force against small speed boats or skiffs with high horsepower engines carrying men armed with AK-47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers as well as piracy equipment such as ladders and grappling hooks. If warships come across such boats attempting to hijack a ship, the small boats should not simply be chased off. They should be attacked and sunk.
Second, because the small speed boats and skiffs operate from larger “mother ships,” they are able to attack ships far from the coast. The mother ships are often dhows or fishing vessels which have themselves been hijacked. More steps should be taken by the U.S. Navy and its partners to locate and neutralize these “mother ships.”
Third, the United States should consider imposing a naval blockade on the major ports which are supporting the pirate activities. Only humanitarian aid should be allowed into such ports. This will send a message to the local communities that they will pay a price for supporting the actions of the pirates. If necessary, the international community should not hesitate to attack the pirates in their land bases, which is authorized both by the UN Security Council and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.
Fourth, to gain support from the local communities, the United States should push for the U.N. Security Council to order all foreign fishing vessels to stay out of the exclusive economic zone of Somalia. This is important because one reason some local fishing communities support the pirates is that they believe foreign fishing vessels have been plundering their fishing resources.
Fifth, the United States and its allies should give aid and assistance to states in the region, such as Kenya, that are willing to prosecute pirates apprehended by foreign warships.
Sixth, the international community should use other relevant international conventions to combat Somali piracy. These include including the 1988 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA Convention) and the 1979 International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages (Hostages Convention).
Seventh, we urge the shipping community to reconsider taking armed marshals on board.
Second, because the small speed boats and skiffs operate from larger “mother ships,” they are able to attack ships far from the coast. The mother ships are often dhows or fishing vessels which have themselves been hijacked. More steps should be taken by the U.S. Navy and its partners to locate and neutralize these “mother ships.”
Third, the United States should consider imposing a naval blockade on the major ports which are supporting the pirate activities. Only humanitarian aid should be allowed into such ports. This will send a message to the local communities that they will pay a price for supporting the actions of the pirates. If necessary, the international community should not hesitate to attack the pirates in their land bases, which is authorized both by the UN Security Council and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.
Fourth, to gain support from the local communities, the United States should push for the U.N. Security Council to order all foreign fishing vessels to stay out of the exclusive economic zone of Somalia. This is important because one reason some local fishing communities support the pirates is that they believe foreign fishing vessels have been plundering their fishing resources.
Fifth, the United States and its allies should give aid and assistance to states in the region, such as Kenya, that are willing to prosecute pirates apprehended by foreign warships.
Sixth, the international community should use other relevant international conventions to combat Somali piracy. These include including the 1988 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA Convention) and the 1979 International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages (Hostages Convention).
Seventh, we urge the shipping community to reconsider taking armed marshals on board.
The SUA and Hostages Conventions are potentially useful tools because they are broadly accepted. If alleged offenders are present in the territory of a state party, the state has an obligation to take them into custody and to either extradite them or prosecute them.
In conclusion, we urge President Obama and Secretary Clinton to show decisive leadership in leading the international community to defeat the Somali pirates. They will have both the law and world public opinion on their side. In the 21st century, it is unacceptable for the world’s shipping to be helpless and continue to be preyed upon by the Somali pirates."
Notes:
*Robert Charles Beckman is the director of the Center for International Law at the National University of Singapore.
**Tommy Koh is ambassador-at-large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore and was president of the UN Conference on the Law of the Sea from 1980 to 1982.
John Sansom
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Hello, OPSSG, Feanor, et al....
I'm tempted to suggest that striking at the pirates' finances might best be effected by persuading them to let Bernie Madoff handle their funds. Or for that matter, any of the largeish clique involved in tipping the world into fiscal woe-dom.
More to the point, I rather suspect a scorched earth approach to shore installatiions and communities might work, if one can figure out how to assure the safety of current hostages as well as that of women and children. The best, and perhaps only, bet would probably involve advance warnings followed by a demonstration...followed by the real thing. The demonstration would be pour encourager tout le monde and, hopefully, to inhibit the natural tendency to shelter behind the hostages.
The problem remains that such an effort would also involve the destruction of a considerable amount of expensive equipment--pirate booty, as it were--so somebody should probably check with Lloyds first.
Odds of success would probably be improved by some quick in-and-out boots on the ground. By :"quick", I mean long enough to hang onto some territtory while hostages were freed and/or exchanged and captured vessels flashed up for exit purposes.
I know this sounds a wee bit frivolous, but.......
I'm tempted to suggest that striking at the pirates' finances might best be effected by persuading them to let Bernie Madoff handle their funds. Or for that matter, any of the largeish clique involved in tipping the world into fiscal woe-dom.
More to the point, I rather suspect a scorched earth approach to shore installatiions and communities might work, if one can figure out how to assure the safety of current hostages as well as that of women and children. The best, and perhaps only, bet would probably involve advance warnings followed by a demonstration...followed by the real thing. The demonstration would be pour encourager tout le monde and, hopefully, to inhibit the natural tendency to shelter behind the hostages.
The problem remains that such an effort would also involve the destruction of a considerable amount of expensive equipment--pirate booty, as it were--so somebody should probably check with Lloyds first.
Odds of success would probably be improved by some quick in-and-out boots on the ground. By :"quick", I mean long enough to hang onto some territtory while hostages were freed and/or exchanged and captured vessels flashed up for exit purposes.
I know this sounds a wee bit frivolous, but.......
OPSSG,
most of those points seem very sensible. The big exception is the third: AFAIK the pirates do not operate from any major ports. Eyl & the like are very small ports indeed, which is why hijacked ships are always pictured at anchor. The third provision is irrelevant to them. Their traffic is dhows & fishing boats, which beach. Even Bossasso, which does have a harbour (& which stories I've heard suggest is only used by pirates indirectly, i.e. that they live there but do not take hijacked ships back to it) has too small a port for the international shipping mentioned. See the satellite pictures here.
most of those points seem very sensible. The big exception is the third: AFAIK the pirates do not operate from any major ports. Eyl & the like are very small ports indeed, which is why hijacked ships are always pictured at anchor. The third provision is irrelevant to them. Their traffic is dhows & fishing boats, which beach. Even Bossasso, which does have a harbour (& which stories I've heard suggest is only used by pirates indirectly, i.e. that they live there but do not take hijacked ships back to it) has too small a port for the international shipping mentioned. See the satellite pictures here.
John and swerve, many thanks for the posts and please accept my apologies for my belated reply (I just recovered from a strained my neck/back and was reluctant to spend too much time in front of a computer earlier).
John, ideally, striking at the pirates' finances or land bases would work provided the patrolling navies had good actionable intelligence, coupled with political will by the respective political establishments. In this case, good quality intelligence seems to be lacking and no major western nation is keen to get involved in major ground action in Somalia.
swerve, I would say that Professors Koh and Beckman are law professors by training and may not have the most accurate ground intelligence picture of the pirate bases in Somalia. They may not have gotten the details right but there may be some merit to their idea if correctly adapted to local conditions (i.e. create disincentives to wean pirates from their local support). IMHO, there must be some sticks and carrots that the world at large can apply to getting the pirates to release the current hostages/crew held by the pirates. I'm just not sure of what they are at the moment and would welcome suggestions.
John, ideally, striking at the pirates' finances or land bases would work provided the patrolling navies had good actionable intelligence, coupled with political will by the respective political establishments. In this case, good quality intelligence seems to be lacking and no major western nation is keen to get involved in major ground action in Somalia.
swerve, I would say that Professors Koh and Beckman are law professors by training and may not have the most accurate ground intelligence picture of the pirate bases in Somalia. They may not have gotten the details right but there may be some merit to their idea if correctly adapted to local conditions (i.e. create disincentives to wean pirates from their local support). IMHO, there must be some sticks and carrots that the world at large can apply to getting the pirates to release the current hostages/crew held by the pirates. I'm just not sure of what they are at the moment and would welcome suggestions.
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John Sansom
New Member
OPSSG, you're right, of course, but, on the money side, all funds tend to leave a trail which can be followed. If somebody hands over $$$ millions on a hostage deal, that money will not simply sit in some remote coastal village. One way or another, it will "go somewhere", and, of course, pirate spokesmen have boasted of their international "money management" contacts and agents.
I cannot believe that the intelligence services of the countries currently involved in all his have not connected the dots, and are operating in some kind of whimsical ignorance of the money trail. Not likely at all.
If that's a given, then it seems logical that making the "administrative" end of the piracy problem horrendously perilous would provide an important part of the long-term solution. Now, I have no doubt that this avenue is being pursued and that--for good reason--not a lot is being said about it. But I get a somewhat unsettling feeling that something within the process is not working and that the pursuit of a different agenda may be the cause.
Oh, dear. Now I'm slipping into the conspiracy camp.
I cannot believe that the intelligence services of the countries currently involved in all his have not connected the dots, and are operating in some kind of whimsical ignorance of the money trail. Not likely at all.
If that's a given, then it seems logical that making the "administrative" end of the piracy problem horrendously perilous would provide an important part of the long-term solution. Now, I have no doubt that this avenue is being pursued and that--for good reason--not a lot is being said about it. But I get a somewhat unsettling feeling that something within the process is not working and that the pursuit of a different agenda may be the cause.
Oh, dear. Now I'm slipping into the conspiracy camp.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaBqHyPu9II"]Ross Kemp in Search of Pirates[/ame]
It shows just how difficult the task for the naval forces are. On the other hand it reinforces my perception that helicopters are a supreme asset under such cirumstances. TUAV should also be an immense help to get an eye on suspected pirate ships.
On a sidenote the pirate problem in this huge area reminds me a lot on the challanges posed by a capable submarine to ASW forces.
It shows just how difficult the task for the naval forces are. On the other hand it reinforces my perception that helicopters are a supreme asset under such cirumstances. TUAV should also be an immense help to get an eye on suspected pirate ships.
On a sidenote the pirate problem in this huge area reminds me a lot on the challanges posed by a capable submarine to ASW forces.
Adm McMullen estimated that they're covering over 1.5million sq miles of water with 70 or so military vessels. He considered that they could not get adequate coverage even if they had 1000 vessels in that loc.
The correct estimate of coverage is closer to 2million sq miles of effected "water"
its why rotors and fixed wing are crucial to coverage and interception. once only has to consider how much real estate a maritime asset covers in one pass with downward looking sensors to appreciate the difference.
speed to intercept, position and persistence on station are why everyone was screaming for ships with fantails or a carrier - and hence why the US put a carrier in that locale in the end.
the ISR benefits alone are enormous.
The correct estimate of coverage is closer to 2million sq miles of effected "water"
its why rotors and fixed wing are crucial to coverage and interception. once only has to consider how much real estate a maritime asset covers in one pass with downward looking sensors to appreciate the difference.
speed to intercept, position and persistence on station are why everyone was screaming for ships with fantails or a carrier - and hence why the US put a carrier in that locale in the end.
the ISR benefits alone are enormous.
2 million sq mi only due to the more recent expansion of piracy into the Indian Ocean. The "primary area" along Somalia's and Yemen's coast is around 500.000 km², within the EEZ of these two.
More MPA would probably be helpful. Say 50 or so P-3 instead of the current 4-6 would already go a long way. Station 'em in Djibouti, Kenya, perhaps Oman and India. Get the USN and JMSDF to provide the aircraft, they have plenty. And consider mounting a couple Mavericks on all of them, can't have helos everywhere.
More MPA would probably be helpful. Say 50 or so P-3 instead of the current 4-6 would already go a long way. Station 'em in Djibouti, Kenya, perhaps Oman and India. Get the USN and JMSDF to provide the aircraft, they have plenty. And consider mounting a couple Mavericks on all of them, can't have helos everywhere.
IMB regards the somali and yemeni coasts as being close to 1million sq's of observation
the 2.5million sqm also includes north western and western africa
true, but its easier for helos to stand off and observe. the rules of engagement make it difficult for a Maverick armed Orion to keep the operators out of prison for an unlawful.....
I really wonder to which extent are the pirates able to "monitor" the movements of the task force. They certainly receive the radio messages from them, and the more endurant motherships as well as paid fishermen should be able to get a rather good picture about their positions. Rudimentary direction finding would work very well with some other receivers and is certainly no great difficulty. Still I think that visual tracking (with binoculars) and identification is the key.
Radio traffic between informants and pirates can be intercepted but on the other hand I doubt about the ability of the naval forces to speak and understand the somali language and dialects.
So I think that the Naval forces have a great problem to tap into the communication and intelligence net of the pirates even at sea.
Radio traffic between informants and pirates can be intercepted but on the other hand I doubt about the ability of the naval forces to speak and understand the somali language and dialects.
So I think that the Naval forces have a great problem to tap into the communication and intelligence net of the pirates even at sea.
how do pirates receive or monitor digitised military systems? they can't. they can only hear military vessels if they are on open comms to communicate with merchant/civilian traffic
the best tracking is OTHR or BVR using long range capability on aircraft.
actually, I can think of 4-5 militaries that have got somali speakers in their midst. - those countries that had ground forces in somalia are some of them
Hardly, the Middle East would be one of the most heavily satellite managed lanes on the planet. Certainly any NATO or US allied navy is capable of receiving traffic from the US once they choose to open the gates.
The issue is not monitoring, it's responding in an approp time frame against a declared threat. Thats why the preference has been for countries to provide either ships with a rotor, fantail, or flight deck. Air assets can cover real estate faster than any ship can. They can loiter, prosecute and harass at range. They can standoff and take happy snaps all day long as judicial prosecution evidence.
The intel that is critical is the money train - and you'll note that pirate attacks are tapering off ever since robust rules of engagement were selected. The big wins will be tracking the money to source - and thats not going to hit the media as its a protracted but necessary process. The kinetic stuff is but a small subset of what needs to be done.
All these shipping movements are tracked - and where a track does not coincide with known port/shipping movements, then the attention levels go up. eg, I've seen tracking solutions that allow us to view over 1300 concurrent platform movements - and thats tracking aircraft in real time. the same tech can be and is overlayed for shipping. The feed is taken from sats, from port authorities, from signals sent by ships. from overflights etc... its the ships that aren't tagged that stand out like the proverbial gonads...
I would hazard a guess that Alexas has similar software under his purview (esp as his org works with a number of other senior agencies as well)
Thanks for the interesting reply
Hardly, the Middle East would be one of the most heavily satellite managed lanes on the planet. Certainly any NATO or US allied navy is capable of receiving traffic from the US once they choose to open the gates.
Actually I was referring to the open comms, as also shown on the Ross Kemp videos. Open to hear to all as most of the chatter between the civilian ships in distress and the military vessels. An excellent medium of intelligence for the pirates.
This is actually excellent news and absolutely a key factor. However once again it seems to me that their numbers are of course rather small.
Hardly, the Middle East would be one of the most heavily satellite managed lanes on the planet. Certainly any NATO or US allied navy is capable of receiving traffic from the US once they choose to open the gates.
Actually I agree with your statements, that is why I also thought that the RSS Persistence and LHDs in general are excellent assets in such operations. A large amount of inaudible and invisible ISR (T)UAV with long endurance are also brilliant in collecting covertly intelligence, to prevent an attack or for the judicial process. They should also help to decrease the heavy workload on the helicopters, the aces of coalition.The issue is not monitoring, it's responding in an approp time frame against a declared threat. Thats why the preference has been for countries to provide either ships with a rotor, fantail, or flight deck. Air assets can cover real estate faster than any ship can. They can loiter, prosecute and harass at range. They can standoff and take happy snaps all day long as judicial prosecution evidence.
The intel that is critical is the money train - and you'll note that pirate attacks are tapering off ever since robust rules of engagement were selected. The big wins will be tracking the money to source - and thats not going to hit the media as its a protracted but necessary process. The kinetic stuff is but a small subset of what needs to be done.
All these shipping movements are tracked - and where a track does not coincide with known port/shipping movements, then the attention levels go up. eg, I've seen tracking solutions that allow us to view over 1300 concurrent platform movements - and thats tracking aircraft in real time. the same tech can be and is overlayed for shipping. The feed is taken from sats, from port authorities, from signals sent by ships. from overflights etc... its the ships that aren't tagged that stand out like the proverbial gonads...
I would hazard a guess that Alexas has similar software under his purview (esp as his org works with a number of other senior agencies as well)
Good job CTF-151! According to Information Dissemination, one month has passed since the last hijack off the coast of Somalia. While the drop in hijacking incidents has been aided by the weather (the southwest monsoon), I hope that there will be more good months and good news to come.
Further, I note that the above news was reported by a CTF-151 public affairs officer (PAO) (who provides CTF-151 news). Unlike most USN ships who have a PAO onboard, the RSS Persistence (commanded by Lt. Col. Richard Lim) does not deploy with a PAO.
On a side note, recently the following CTF-151 ships, RSS Persistence, TCG Giresun, HMS Portland and Munmu the Great were visited by Turkish Rear Adm. Caner Bener, commander of CTF-151 (who is embarked on USS Gettysburg). The task force has undergone significant changes since January 2009. "From the early days, when CTF 151 was comprised of two nations and three ships, it has grown to become a true reflection of the international community's desire to address the problem of piracy" said Cmdr. Timothy Henry, HMS Portland's commanding officer.Galrahn said:
Further, I note that the above news was reported by a CTF-151 public affairs officer (PAO) (who provides CTF-151 news). Unlike most USN ships who have a PAO onboard, the RSS Persistence (commanded by Lt. Col. Richard Lim) does not deploy with a PAO.
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VHF voice comms would be an excellent source of info for the pirates. I recall in the Iran-Iraq war, Iran routinely used VHF bridge-to-bridge comms to cue their recce aircraft to an eventual airstrike on the oil tankers transitting the Persian Gulf.
Another tool for the pirates are each ship's Automatic Identification System (AIS) which will give in real time a ship's posit, course, and speed as well as flag and cargo, amongst other items. The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) requires AIS to be fitted aboard international voyaging ships with gross tonnage (GT) of 300 or more tons, and all passenger ships regardless of size. I wonder if ship masters would turn their AIS systems off as they transit the Somalia hot areas.
Another tool for the pirates are each ship's Automatic Identification System (AIS) which will give in real time a ship's posit, course, and speed as well as flag and cargo, amongst other items. The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) requires AIS to be fitted aboard international voyaging ships with gross tonnage (GT) of 300 or more tons, and all passenger ships regardless of size. I wonder if ship masters would turn their AIS systems off as they transit the Somalia hot areas.
Oops - Information Dissemination has declared that Galrahn "Spoke Too Soon: Cargo Ship Hijacked Off Oman".
We already know that they pick up their primary intel from tame port authorities and coast watchers at ports of exit.
there would be minimal advantage in monitoring VHF IMO as very few of their vessels have had the capacity to do so anyway. the runners are generally only carrying "2 ways" back to mother and they don't have any sophisticated capacity to track and monitor in real time outside of what they've been fed from either mother or land based repeating stations.
in fact, any of the TF controlling assets in that area could actually shutdown their comms if there was a need.
Bugger.
To add to what gf0012-aust says: we also know that they use internet reports of ship movements. Ship-spotters who log sightings are inadvertently helping pirates. Fortunately, there's not much of that around the critical areas, so the assistance is minor.
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