What everybody personally thinks about where the Dutch military must grow to is his or her opinion. However, let's take a threat and capability assessment:
Threats:
None in the EU, except against terrorism and civil defence activities
There is a small threat that Venezuela will act against the Antilles, but with US ANG units flying from Hato, I think Chavez will think twice then to give the US a reason to attack him if he invades the Antilles.
Requested capabilities:
Civil defence
counter-terrorism
participation in peacekeeping and peace-enforcement in multinational environments
So, what do we need for this?
Do we need an expensive carrier battle group including aircraft? Heck no, way to expensive for such a small nation. We can operate together with partner countries should the need for carrier-based aviation arise during an operation. Maybe we can even buy some F35Bs and operate them off the British CVFs ;-)
Seriously though, we do not need 400 Leo's, as we do not have a threat to use them against, maybe some Taleban in Afghanistan as the Danish are doing. We do not need 2 types of aircraft in huge numbers, we do need however higher retention rates and more personnel. We need more rounded-out brigades with organic artillery and tacyical UAVs, no single rented UAV and a few guns.
We need more infrastructure in the Antilles and in my opinion a standard rotational deployment of a few fighters and a battlion-sized unit there. It will also be good training. And we need a good amphibious capability, the two LPDs are good, together with the JSS, but we need something like HMS Ocean too. So we can transport a Battalion taskforce in combat load in one single push and support them via amphibious and helicopter capability in the field. And of course we need the helicopters and the transport aircraft to support our operations.
To buy some extra kit is good for the economy now, just as raising the salaries to beef up force numbers and keep good people in the armed forces.
Personally I believe the Gripen a great plane to have, but I has have to admit the JSF has had no chance to prove itself. We do not need more than one type of aircraft for logistics reasons, although I think 130 aircraft is better then the current levels. We do not need the F16 Block 60, what will it bring additional except the AESA radar? Nothing more a Gripen cannot bring in my opinion.
Cheers