Venezuelan F16s

[momo]

the k-8's are also meant to replace the f-5's, these are being used right know for training.

Also, don't forget that Russia has granted VE a $1bn loan for arms purchases that, as far as I know, hasn't been touched yet.

yes but this loan is going to be used for the army. They want to replace the amx-30 and 13 because they are already obsolete

 

[momo]

While most of us focus on Venezuela unservicable F-16, i think Chavez government silently eveluate its replacement.

While looking on current situation, more likely MiG-29SMT or MiG 35 will be the best candidate.

the mig-29 SMT came to Venezuela years ago. They had them tested against the f-16's but the FAV didn't like them. That's why the FAV chose the Su-30

 

[wimpymouse]

Well what makes you think Venezuela may be open for attack?

Despite OPEC production costs, oil is still below $40 a barrel. Demand is decreasing, driving the price down even further.

By the way, Russia is highly dependent on oil and gas revenues which also puts them in a bind and the Russian Rouble has been in steady depreciation. Hard times ahead.

Sertainly hard times ahead, but one shouldn't look at the price of the barrel over such a short time. It's the median price over one full year that is interesting, and the Venezuelan government has calculated their 2009 budget after a $60 median price.

Everything in the actions of the US is pointing towards that; they're "softening" the public up with rethorics; their actual involvment in VE so far, etc, it's all following how they do before it happens. If they wasn't involved up to their necks in two wars already they would probably already have moved to secure "US interests".

the k-8's are also meant to replace the f-5's, these are being used right know for training.

yes but this loan is going to be used for the army. They want to replace the amx-30 and 13 because they are already obsolete

I don't know if and how they are going to use up that loan. However, T-72 will probably be replacing the AMX's.

 

[Salty Dog]

Sertainly hard times ahead, but one shouldn't look at the price of the barrel over such a short time. It's the median price over one full year that is interesting, and the Venezuelan government has calculated their 2009 budget after a $60 median price.

Everything in the actions of the US is pointing towards that; they're "softening" the public up with rethorics; their actual involvment in VE so far, etc, it's all following how they do before it happens. If they wasn't involved up to their necks in two wars already they would probably already have moved to secure "US interests".

I agree on your assessment of the oil price. I feel it should be about $90.

This is going a bit off topic, . . please elaborate on your response.
1) What involvement does the USA have in Venezuela to warrant conflict?
2) What are the US interests and objectives for a conflict with Venezuela?
3) Why do you believe the USA would have already gone into Venezuela?

 

[shrubage]

If Venezuela was seriously expecting a US invasion they’d be investing every cent they have into man portable weapon systems. To be honest I don’t understand Hugo Chavez’s thinking. His new Air force isn’t justified by any threat from his neighbours and it would be a mornings work for the US to destroy.

Sure it makes him somewhat of a regional power but so what? If he ever threatened to use it against a neighbour, the US would jump at the chance to put him back in his box. Basically he’s stealing money from his much vaunted social projects for an ego trip. One which the cash hungry Russians are only too happy to oblige.

 

[Feanor]

The replacement will most likely be the Su-35BM. Venezuelan gov. has stated their interest in it, and there have been negotiations on going about purchasing it. I'm guessing they're waiting for it to complete testing.

I don't know if and how they are going to use up that loan. However, T-72 will probably be replacing the AMX's.

It'll be the T-90A. The T-72 is out of production, and Russia prefers to sell new weapons instead of the left over war stocks. Morever the two articles I read, the first one mentioned Venezuela being interested in T-72 tanks, and the second mentioned Russia being willing to offer T-72 or T-90A. I doubt that they will go for second-hand T-72s.

 

[momo]

His new Air force isn’t justified by any threat from his neighbours and it would be a mornings work for the US to destroy.

If it wasn't for those 24 su-30's we wouldn't have an air force. The f-16's are soon going to be out, the mirages are already retired, and the f-5's are used for training and only 5 of them fly. I think, 24 is not a big number of aircrafts it's not like if we were buying 72 or 100, so I don't know why you say it is not justified. Believe me we know we are not a match for the US and we don't want to be but we want to at least have something.( I also don't think it is appropiate to get into these type of discussions)
You also say it is not justified by our neighbors, i think you have to take into account that our army is small and it is not even half the size of our neighbors army's

 

[momo]

Hey I'm sorry I think I went too far with the off-topic but I'm leaving a link so that you guys could check some pictures

http://fav-club.com/galeria/main.php?g2_itemId=117

 

[Twister]

Venezuela AF should focus strenghtern their Air Defense at first before continuing thinking for F-16s replacement.

They should acquired at least 6 unit S-300PMU, 12 unit Medium Range SAM (Tor & Panshr), Tunguska M1 & more Iglas MANPADS.

In current situation, with weak oil price, Venezuela must put their spending wisely.

 

[Todjaeger]

Venezuela AF should focus strenghtern their Air Defense at first before continuing thinking for F-16s replacement.

They should acquired at least 6 unit S-300PMU, 12 unit Medium Range SAM (Tor & Panshr), Tunguska M1 & more Iglas MANPADS.

In current situation, with weak oil price, Venezuela must put their spending wisely.

I agree that Venezuela could likely benefit from a strengthened Air Defence. However, I do not believe that a primarily GBAD system is the best option. GBAD has significantly less flexibility vs. airborne units. If a defence force has the choice between one or the other, a unit of fighters would be better than a SAM unit. GBAD (IMO) only really comes into its own either when using manpads, or if the level of available funding is insufficient to support a fighter squadron (or larger) formation.

As for an aircraft replacement program for Venezuela... Given the economic conditions, not sure of viable or sustainable such a program would be. IIRC the 2009 budget for Venezuela was using an assumption of oil at an avg price of $100/barrel, not $60/barrel. Also, given the current world economic situation, I doubt that would help as it would likely depress other Venezuelan economic activities, apart from petroleum exports.

-Cheers

 

[Twister]

With a decision to cut oil production came to be materialise on Jan 2009 by OPEC & Russian, Venezuela AF will gain back their budget.

It's true GBAD not enough since it's not flexible as the airborne air defense but still given good protection if manage wisely and in large number.

So, if the Venezuela AF has a budget to replace their F-16s, which aircraft will be suitable since US & some European Aircraft are not available?

a. MiG-35
b. Su-30MKV (additional)
c. Su-35
d. Dassault Rafale
e. JF-17/FC-1
f. Dassault Mirage 2000
g. CAC J-10

 

[Feanor]

The Su-35 or additional MKV's are their only real options. It would be ridiculous to have 24 of one aircraft type and 24 of another, not to mention that the J-10 is not for sale, the MiG-35 is not ready for production (and a small order would not suffice), Mirages are out of production, and the Rafale does not compare favorably cost wise. The FC-1 is the only other competitor, but then maintenance reasons become a concern.

 

[Twister]

We can't excluded the Mirage 2000, Rafale and CAC J-10 from list.

For now, Dassault are in hard to sales their Rafale which result the cost are slightly high even for domestics used.

With France AF now actively restructure, with Rafale will become main combat aircraft, Mirage 2000 will be phased out and it's good for France if there's nation interested to buy them. Brazil has giving the proof that Mirage 2000 still have value.

For CAC J-10, there's are rumours that the plane has been offer to Pakistan and some says to Iran. With PRC are needed a large volume of Petroleum & Gases, it's not possible to sell it to Venezuela in exchange of its if offer of JF-17/FC-1 failed.

 

[Salty Dog]

Brazil has giving the proof that Mirage 2000 still have value.

The Mirage 2000 is good fighter, but in Brazil's case it was forced to acquire the Mirage 2000s due to extremis. Brazil had deactivated all their Mirage III and were using F-5s and A-1s in their place and Brazil had not resolved F-X. The Mirage 2000s are very temporary and will be phased out with F-X2. The bright side is the Mirage 2000 gave FAB a BVR capability.

 

[Feanor]

We can't excluded the Mirage 2000, Rafale and CAC J-10 from list.

For now, Dassault are in hard to sales their Rafale which result the cost are slightly high even for domestics used.

So yes, the Rafale is rather expensive. There is no record of post-sale support. There aren't particularly close ties between Venezuela and France, and Venezuela does not currently fly anything similar to the Rafale (as opposed to similarities between the Su-30MKV and Su-35BM).

With France AF now actively restructure, with Rafale will become main combat aircraft, Mirage 2000 will be phased out and it's good for France if there's nation interested to buy them. Brazil has giving the proof that Mirage 2000 still have value.

Not at this point. The Mirage 2000 is just too outdated. Not to mention that they're used. Again looks rather unlikely, especially when you factor in the political side.

For CAC J-10, there's are rumours that the plane has been offer to Pakistan and some says to Iran. With PRC are needed a large volume of Petroleum & Gases, it's not possible to sell it to Venezuela in exchange of its if offer of JF-17/FC-1 failed.

There are also rumors of UFOs. Regularly. Yet we're not worried about alien laser guns appearing on the black market any time soon. China is in need of J-10 production for itself. I doubt they will put the PLAF order on stand-by so they can export some to Venezuela. Not to mention that none have actually been offered. Only rumors that they may be offered.

 

[ASFC]

I would also add that the US would probably place sanctions against Dassault (much as it did against Russian Companies) if France sold Rafale to Venezuela.

Su-30MKV or Su-35BM would be the way for Venezeula to continue.

 

[ROCK45]

Other

You might be right about the sanctions but France doesn't always follow the US. Wasn't there a French national being held by the FARC and Chavez was accused of not being against the FARC? I thought that's where the French not so friendly toward Venezuela trend started, somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Feanor]

Maybe tphuang can comment on the J-10 export potential within a 5-year timeframe.

 

[Twister]

Look like Venezuela AF does'nt have much choice.

The only suitable candidate is from Sukhoi. But i suggest Venezuela AF built it's own aircraft or just buy the cancel Soviet/Russian combat aircraft project such as Yak-43.

 

[shrubage]

My original post queried how the venezuelans would dispose of their F16's once maintainance becomes impossible. Once the 24 SU 30s come into service won't they essentially be a replacement for the F16s, why would a small air force operate 2 types Jet fighter (3 if you include the F5s). And what possible role would they have? Especially in country with the massive social problems that brought Chavez to power.

They don't face any credible threats from their neighbours. Even if you accept Hugo Chavez's belief in a possible US invasion what good would a 100 SU 30s do?.