Venezuelan F16s

[shrubage]

The Wikipedia page on the venezualan military states that only 8 of the venezuelan F16s are operational due to a united states weapons embargo. It also refers to remarks that Hugo Chavez's made where he threatens to sell the F16s to a third country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Venezuela#U.S._military_embargo

I imagine that when the venezualens purchased the aircraft they signed an end user agreement with the United States, does the US refusing to supply spares invalidate this? An old article I found on the net from 2005 refers to the US maintaining that the US is living up to its spares agreement. Later in the article they refer to the various legal justifications the Americans are using, perhaps in a bid to protect the end user agreement?.
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/1474

So what are the implications of 21 F16s even unservicable ones being offered up for sale to the highest bidder?

 

[Feanor]

Who would buy them? They're unoperational, no training or maintenance package is being offered with them. There's also only 21 of them. The only countries interested in buying them would be places like Indonesia which already operate them, and would either cannibalize them for maintenance, or have a much easier time bringing at least some of them to operational status.

 

[momo]

correction, there are about 12 of them flying and there is no indication that the venezuelan air force wants to sale them. These are still good aircrafts, whoever buys them has the option of doing a mid life upgrade. For instance, Chile aquired a number of f-16's (i don't know how many) from the Netherlands. I think some middle eastern countries have done it as well.

 

[Salty Dog]

Who would buy them? They're unoperational, no training or maintenance package is being offered with them. There's also only 21 of them. The only countries interested in buying them would be places like Indonesia which already operate them, and would either cannibalize them for maintenance, or have a much easier time bringing at least some of them to operational status.

Roger that. There are plenty of used F-16s that are or will become available from various countries (USA, etc. )and most likely were maintained in far better condition than FAV.

 

[ROCK45]

Venezuela

Basically because of the situation it seems Venezuela's stuck with them. Any country who takes them on without US permission would have a tough time supporting them that's for sure.

 

[shrubage]

So if the US has failed to honour its maintainance agreements does that invalidate the end user agreement?

Also even though they're early model F16s what are the security implications for the US, if they're sold to a country like Iran which has a track record of reverse engineering US equipment. After all they did it with the F5, surely 21 examplesof the F16, some of them airworthy, would enable the Iranians to repeat the process.

 

[Feanor]

I'm sure the Iranians could learn something from it, just like I'm sure they're learning all they can from the MiG-29A, Su-24, and Su-25 that crossed over from Iraq. Would it be helpful to them? Probably somewhat. Would it be major, or even be worthwhile to reverse engineer? Doubtful.

 

[ROCK45]

maintenance agreement

shrubage
So if the US has failed to honor its maintenance agreements does that invalidate the end user agreement?

You make it sound like the US for no reason decided not to sell Chavez F-16 parts and services? Chavez isn't Mr. Perfect thus helping himself and putting his AF in the situation there in currently. I don't know the whole breakdown of the situation I'm sure you can Google it and make up your own mind on the topic.

Since nothing short of seizing the aircraft in travel the US can't really stop Chavez from selling or giving them away. Chavez could care less what security implications for the US he causes, in fact he may get enjoyment at of it.

At that point the buyer has the problem and that opens another can of worms. I guess in theory since there are so many Viper users around the world I assume one may be able to use the Black Market up to a point to get parts. How long that lasts is another matter.

 

[Twister]

Look like Venezuela AF can retires all their F-16s.

As long as Chavez in power, US will not allowing any sale of the spare part. It's better for Venezuela AF focus on their new SU-30MKVs and search for another aircraft to replace their aging asset such as CF-5, Mirage III and F-16s.

 

[ROCK45]

Focus

You sum it up pretty well not much going on for Venezuela on the other types they have. I wonder in what direction Chavez will go in the future for aircraft and what types. I assumed long before this point and time that some sort of a second or follow up order would have been placed. The (24) Su-30 MK2V are powerful fighter platforms capable of performing many types of missions but are they enough?

 

[shrubage]

For all Hugo chavez's many faults I think he is at least trying to make the appearance of staying within the law. So does the US switching off the supply of spares for the F16s invalidate the end user agreement? Legally can he sell the aircraft to Iran if he wants.

I'm sure the Iranians could learn something from it, just like I'm sure they're learning all they can from the MiG-29A, Su-24, and Su-25 that crossed over from Iraq. Would it be helpful to them? Probably somewhat. Would it be major, or even be worthwhile to reverse engineer? Doubtful.

As the Iranians are making their own version of the F5 now, surely the F16 is the logical next step. Their military industrial base is still western orientated. Stealing the intellectual properties of the russian and chinese and reverse engineering equipment they've purchased from the few countries that will supply them with weapons might not be an option.

 

[Twister]

I don't think Venezuela will sell their F-16 to Iran. The F-16 still needed before Chavez government can decided which aircraft they wanted to buy for replacement. In current situation, the result seem will taken a long way to fullfill.

Even if Venezuela sell or transfer on free their F-16 to Iran, still take time for Iranian to reverse engineer it.

 

[momo]

i heard that the US never stop selling spare parts for the f-16, they kept them coming but delayed them. However, for 2009 the contract is going to be over and I don't think we are going to be able to keep them in the air.

As long as Chavez in power, US will not allowing any sale of the spare part. It's better for Venezuela AF focus on their new SU-30MKVs and search for another aircraft to replace their aging asset such as CF-5, Mirage III and F-16s.

yep that's the hope, to keep them in storage to see if the political situation changes, that's why I don't think they are going to be given to Iran. But for now is going to be hard because we have to keep changing all our equipment

 

[ROCK45]

shrubage
For all Hugo chavez's many faults I think he is at least trying to make the appearance of staying within the law

There are many in Venezuela who would not agree with you and have seen many laws change. Too much is made of the end user agreement and what it means and so forth no country or government supports end user agreements after there is a breakdown or falling out period. Do you think France or Russia still supplies parts and support after a complete falling out or breakdown?

Could a country like Iran learn something from getting their hands on early model Block Vipers, yes they could. Lets face it the F-16 is a great design but it's only slightly newer then there F-14s they have. Would they want to go down a 25 year old design route is a better question?

 

[Twister]

While most of us focus on Venezuela unservicable F-16, i think Chavez government silently eveluate its replacement.

While looking on current situation, more likely MiG-29SMT or MiG 35 will be the best candidate.

Also Dassault Rafale, JF-17 and HAL LCA can e consider as a potential candidate too...

 

[ROCK45]

Options

With the JF-17 that's a Chinese/Pakistan joint venture you probably mean FC-1, could be. Venezuela has placed an order for K-8 trainers so there is some connection. I always felt that a big Chinese-Venezuelan arms contract will happen but I seem to be alone on this.

HAL LCA - Not possible really one for political reason India and the US are getting close now so dealing with Venezuela would be a no,no. Second the LCA isn't in production so India is in position to offer it for sale.

The Rafale well it's political but I guess possible

 

[Salty Dog]

i heard that the US never stop selling spare parts for the f-16, they kept them coming but delayed them. However, for 2009 the contract is going to be over and I don't think we are going to be able to keep them in the air.

yep that's the hope, to keep them in storage to see if the political situation changes, that's why I don't think they are going to be given to Iran. But for now is going to be hard because we have to keep changing all our equipment

AFAIK there were FMS contracts for FAV F-16 maintenance which stated about 1982. These contracts each have a pool of funds to be drawn on for spare parts, technical services, and training. Once these funds ran out the contracts can be renewed and topped up with more funds. In 2005 the US Congress placed “People Trafficking of Persons sanctions” on Venezuela. Therefore, the FMS maintenance contracts were not allowed to be renewed and the funds dried up, e.g. no more spare parts. This means the US fulfilled the FMS maintenance contract obligations until the funds ran out.

Any transfer of the FAV F-16s to another country will require approval by the US Congress for a "third party transfer". This was done in the case of the Dutch F-16s to Chile, Kuwait A-4s to Brazil, etc. It has not a question of sovereignty, it is contractual and Pres Chavez is not dumb enough to disregard that.

I feel too much of a fuss is made on "end user agreements" and "end use monitoring". These are boilerplate sections put into all FMS contracts. The main reason why these are in place is to prevent military hardware and training to be used against civilians and to appease US lawmakers approving FMS contacts.

If anyone has questions on how FMS works, I refer you to the Security Assistance Management Manual

 

[Salty Dog]

While most of us focus on Venezuela unservicable F-16, i think Chavez government silently eveluate its replacement.

While looking on current situation, more likely MiG-29SMT or MiG 35 will be the best candidate.

Also Dassault Rafale, JF-17 and HAL LCA can e consider as a potential candidate too...

FAV also has VF-5s (CF-5) that will need replacements. However, with a huge reliance on oil revenues and the current oil price in the basement, Venezuela will be in for some tough times ahead.

 

[wimpymouse]

i heard that the US never stop selling spare parts for the f-16, they kept them coming but delayed them. However, for 2009 the contract is going to be over and I don't think we are going to be able to keep them in the air.

yep that's the hope, to keep them in storage to see if the political situation changes, that's why I don't think they are going to be given to Iran. But for now is going to be hard because we have to keep changing all our equipment

As Chavez is well aware of Latin America being constantly intervened by the US, including his own experiances with US funding and advising democracy destabilizating movements in his own country, isn't he in need of those F16's in case they attack?

The SU-30MKV's are are superiority planes, I belive, or do they have (naval) strike capabilities too? Any attack against VE is also going to involve Colombia, they will need to strike there too.

With the JF-17 that's a Chinese/Pakistan joint venture you probably mean FC-1, could be. Venezuela has placed an order for K-8 trainers so there is some connection. I always felt that a big Chinese-Venezuelan arms contract will happen but I seem to be alone on this.

HAL LCA - Not possible really one for political reason India and the US are getting close now so dealing with Venezuela would be a no,no. Second the LCA isn't in production so India is in n position to offer it for sale.

The Rafale well it's political but I guess possible

And the Frensch are desperate for a foreign sell...
Is the Rafale multi-role or does it excell in something?

For all Hugo chavez's many faults I think he is at least trying to make the appearance of staying within the law. So does the US switching off the supply of spares for the F16s invalidate the end user agreement? Legally can he sell the aircraft to Iran if he wants.

As the Iranians are making their own version of the F5 now, surely the F16 is the logical next step. Their military industrial base is still western orientated. Stealing the intellectual properties of the russian and chinese and reverse engineering equipment they've purchased from the few countries that will supply them with weapons might not be an option.

Tacticly, he's got everything to lose by not staying within the law, as long as he does that he can always point at the faults/violations of others. His neighbours wouldn't back him like they now do if he wasn't.

i heard that the US never stop selling spare parts for the f-16, they kept them coming but delayed them. However, for 2009 the contract is going to be over and I don't think we are going to be able to keep them in the air.

yep that's the hope, to keep them in storage to see if the political situation changes, that's why I don't think they are going to be given to Iran. But for now is going to be hard because we have to keep changing all our equipment

Sneaky stylie, that could be. Not what I've read, though.

FAV also has VF-5s (CF-5) that will need replacements. However, with a huge reliance on oil revenues and the current oil price in the basement, Venezuela will be in for some tough times ahead.

The OPEC has already cut their production twice this fall, with an unprecedented amount, that will help some. Also, don't forget that Russia has granted VE a $1bn loan for arms purchases that, as far as I know, hasn't been touched yet.

 

[Salty Dog]

As Chavez is well aware of Latin America being constantly intervened by the US, including his own experiances with US funding and advising democracy destabilizating movements in his own country, isn't he in need of those F16's in case they attack?

The SU-30MKV's are are superiority planes, I belive, or do they have (naval) strike capabilities too? Any attack against VE is also going to involve Colombia, they will need to strike there too.

The OPEC has already cut their production twice this fall, with an unprecedented amount, that will help some. Also, don't forget that Russia has granted VE a $1bn loan for arms purchases that, as far as I know, hasn't been touched yet.

Well what makes you think Venezuela may be open for attack?

Despite OPEC production costs, oil is still below $40 a barrel. Demand is decreasing, driving the price down even further.

By the way, Russia is highly dependent on oil and gas revenues which also puts them in a bind and the Russian Rouble has been in steady depreciation. Hard times ahead.