Fighting a Second Falklands War

[riksavage]

I’ m going to have to throw a spanner in the works reference the following statement:

"For the 4th or 5th time the air landing is timed to happen just before a commercial flight from Chile is due in (1:30pm every Saturday)."

Because Mount Pleasant is a military base, which supports a resident F3 Flight, HERC, Refueler and Helo SAR function it is run under military operating procedures. Now taking into consideration most of the activity is military, any none-military flights scheduled to land are subject to additional scrutiny, particularly those (scheduled or not), which have taken off from an embarkation point not controlled by UK flagged personnel (Chile for example), for the following reasons:


1.May have been hijacked, flown under duress (9-11 scenario);
2.May have been substituted for a similar airframe, and
3.May contain unauthorised military personnel (armed or not) from a foreign flag state.


For this reason during the scheduled arrivals ALL airfield defence systems are activated (Rapier included).

Also it is not uncommon for one of the F3’s to undertake a ‘meet and greet’ of any non-UK flagged aircraft scheduled to land at Mount Pleasant. This will definitely pick up your gaggle of inbound HERCs.

Any doubt the scheduled plane will be told to abort the landing and take up a holding pattern or return to home base (depending on fuel load).

It would appear the coco drinkers on the ground have already considered your dramatic Entebbe raid. Unfortunately the only thing we will witness is the splashes as they hit the surf in a ball of fire!

Also you have not yet explained how you would mitigate the threat represented by the Starstreak posts (2 seconds to 2 minutes activation time depending on whether it is a single or multiple launcher) assuming the Rapiers are US?

Finally I've had the personal experience of taking part in a full battalion drop (last time in 87), which involved flying across the English Channel in formation complete with fighter escort. The full bag of mashings - containers, weapon pallets and a 650ft drop at the end near Hamelberg. I know just how difficult it is to unpack your heavy weapons, assemble your platoons before finally advancing to target. The practice of undertaking an air-mobile landing at speed from HERCS (land, taxi, disembark troops and take off) is quite common and practiced amongst most Western armies. I've never however seen it done without the landing zone being secured first by Pathfinders and/or a Para Company.

 

[Marc 1]

Abraham, I think your plan is workable if risky. I have done a RCB deployment - even in the days before they took away the live rounds, it would take the RRF guys (under Platoon strength) minutes to respond. Add poor visibility, and the balloon commander on the spot is not likely to open fire at even an Argentinian Herc landing on the runway without instructions. Instructions that will take time to receive. It would be become obvious that there was a problem as soon as the ramp came down, but by that stage you have 80 heavily armed men on the tarmac with further plane loads arriving.

The one flaw in the logic though, why does it shut down the UK ambitions to retake the islands if you take away the 3000 islanders? What if New Zealand invaded and Tasmania and rounded up the taswegians and shipped them off the island. Tasmania is Tasmania - even without the pointy heads, we would want to retake our land and our resources. If nothing else it would be a matter of principle, besides those Tasmanians would need somewhere to live once they were returned to mainland Australia, what better place than their own homes? In some ways it would make retaking the islands easier, in that there would only be Argentinian 'patriots' on the island - a harsh reality perhaps, but I'm sure the UK MOD would be less worried about killing these 'patriots' than UK citizens. The UK is not just defending the 3000 islanders, they are retaking the islands because of the potential for gas and oil, the fishing rights etc. In the future as resources become more scarce, the Falklands will only become more valuable to the UK.

 

[citizen578]

Before this thread goes any further.

It is going to be contained to existing capabilities.

We're not going to wander down some distracting path of Argentina having Sukhois, the UK using F-22's and the Klingons joining sides with whoever takes their fancy.

This is not going to wander down the nonsensical path where every man and his dog offers up his or her weapon system of choice just because they want to.

haha... thank God for that!

To reflect on some of the more realitstic posts of the past couple of days...

MI6

In 1982, MI6 had one (yes - ONE) agent to cover the entirety of South America. At the time, our red friends were slightly more important than a couple of genocidal generals in the southern cone region. That agent was nowhere near Argentina, and knew about the invasion just a few hours before the Junta themslves started to talk openly about it.

(source: Nigel West - The Secret War for the Falklands)

Today we can credibly assume that the situation is very different. The Cold War is over, and the priorities of the secret services have change. Also, GCHQ will no-doubt be listening quite intently to any Argentine chitter-chatter.

We also have our own more capable satelite surveillance measures, no longer preoccupied with staring at Siberia.

So is a build-up for a surprise attack going to go unnoticed by the spooks? I highly doubt it.

Another reason I highly doubt it is because of what happened in 2005. The massive reinforcement of BFSA was undoubtedly sparked by something it was believed was credible. This would imply the there are ears on the ground.

but let's suppose that by some miracle Argentina does get a plan in action without being noticed...

Getting to the FI unnoticed

Firstly it isn't a para drop, its an airlanding. The Hercs land drop their ramps and out go the troops. If in the highly unlikely event that Hercs aren't used (just to satisfy the onerous demand that only Argentinean aircraft airworthy tomorrow can be used) Merlins or F28s are used then its kind of the same but everyone down ladders from the escape doors.

(Ignoring the fact that Argentina has no merlins, or anything comparable)
You are right in saying that the airworthiness of Argentine aircraft are poor at best. Let's assume that they load up their two remaining airworthy hercs (how would they support their fighters with AAR, in the event of any future conflict, btw? A commander would have to be extremely fool-hardy to risk such assets) and that they fly to MPA with a load full of Argentina's best troops, either for airdrop or an entebbe-style raid.
1) How does it get to the FI unnoticed by surveillance radars?

http://new.edp24.co.uk/content/news...gory=News&itemid=NOED02 Jun 2008 15:14:47:993

MPA alone has a surveillance radar transferred from RAF Coltishall. I'm not an expert on the performance of ground based radars, but am highly suspicious of the accuracy of your data about the radar surveillance net on the islands.

MPA is on East Falkland, in a position deliberately designed to make it as hard to attack as possible (while providing services for Stanley).

There are 3 radar sites in the Falklands (excluding MPA, the rapier units, and any warships in the area), all designed for the sole purpose of spotting an incoming aircraft. A herc (or a helicopter for that matter) is not especially hard to find. Let's assume for argument's sake that they detect a herc, going 200kts at low level, at a range of 50 miles (this is prosterously close, but was the range at which HMS Coventry detected a low-level herc making the run into Stanley during the war).

50 miles, 200 kts = 15mins flying.

Tornadoes at MPA are at Alert 15, 24/7
However, that's excluding the fact that it would be Mount Alice or Byron Heights which would spot them. So in reality, they would be spotted (remember this is according to having an old Type 965 radar... at sea level) at a range of 150 miles from MPA)

150 miles, 200 kts = 45mins flying.

They'd get an AMRAAM up the chuff before they even reached the sound.

however, let's assume the radar station is crewed by spaniards, who are having a ciesta at the critical moment...

the herc reaches MPA

This herc, or two hercs, approcahes MPA. It is quite obviously not either a the scheduled LAN Chile flight, or a British flight. More than likely, it's going to get interrogated by the GBAD units, and eventually get a rapier up the chuff.
However, let's assume it manages to land or air-drop it's troops

the Arg troops begin to attack MPA

These ~120 (max) troops would be facing a garrison of between 1500 and 2000. If those, all would be trained in basic airfield defence, and some would be from the RAF Regt, arguably the most qualified airfield defence troops in the world. These would be reinforced with the roulement infantry company (currently Nijmagen Company, the Grenadier Guards - just returned from fighting the Taleban) and the FIDF.
All of whom are practiced in defending the airfield, know the ground intimately, are well equipped, and enjoy organic air support, with the knowledge that by the time they fire a round, Britain's Rapid Reaction Force is already on it's way to Brize Norton.

So here we have a few Argentine Commandos, on a British base, facing troops who know the ground, have trained for this scenario, have local air support, have a massive arsenal, and have reinforcement inbound.

Which side would you bet your five quid on?

And then the Klingons arrive...

The reality is this:
1) Given the current military imbalance, the Argentines would never be stupid or suicidal enough to try such a thing.
2) If they did, they would be intercepted by F3s before they could even spot a Falklands beach.

[ame="http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=QI-U3-9UO0w"]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=QI-U3-9UO0w[/ame]

 

[citizen578]

Problem is even if Argentina initiate crises. UK does not have support in international community and i highly doubt they are going to spend money on bankrupt adventure.
UK military is quite weak for independent operations so far away and if other countries from Latin American joined into conflict. UK virtually has no chance.

I fully realise that you are attempting to turn this into a political discussion, however...

Your statement is fundamentally wrong.
http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14968&formato=HTML

In an age of military-humanitarianism, it is highly unlikely that either the UN, or the world'd leading nations would encourage any kind of Argentine aggression against a group of farmers and fishermen who have been peacefully going about their business for 175 years.

A history of inter-operation with foreign powers does not mean that the UKs military is ''weak''. The British armed forces are entirely streamlined for expeditionary operations, in contrast for being centred on anti-submarine warfare in the GIUK Gap and armoured warfare on the German plains, as was the case in 1982.

Despite the pathetic ramblings of Chavez, the liklihood of any latin-american partnership to retake the islands is fairly laughable.

 

[Marc 1]

Citizen 578, AG's proposed force is 6 aircraft, Herc sized. I think you are giving too much credence to Intelligence assets. Sure a satelite would spot the mass mobilisation for say North Korea Vs the south, the hundreds of thousands of men and equipment shuffling to their starting positions is going to be noticed. In this scenario, AB is talking about a couple of battalions being moved, and six aircraft before the main show. Given that AB's scenario is 'game over' once the civvies are evacuated (I don't agree), the gearing up of the rest of the Argentine military could begin after the attack was launched. A deception plan could be put into place in the months before or years before - deploying the 6 Hercs in squadron exercises to different airbases, practicing low level flying, deploying troops on exercise. Just one day, the herc's don't land again in Argentina, they pop up in the FI... That wouldn't work of course if the satelites can track aircraft in real time in flight. But does this capability exist over in that AO?

Realistically, the only way an intelligence asset could know before an attack was launched is if they had a high level source within the military high command or government.

Extra Radar. If this extra radar installation is able to cover the siting blind spots that AB's scenario relies on for the element of surprise, then the odds of this mission succeeding drop still further.

Roberto. Whilst the UK armed forces are numerically smaller than in 1982, don't kid yourself that they are not capable of taking on Argentina. Your point that other latin american nations would assist is ambitious to say the least. What is in it for say Brazil to assist? Their defence force would receive a mauling, their economy would suffer - sanctions would hurt Embraer for example and for what? A small piece of some windswept rock thousands of miles from their coast? I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[citizen578]

Hi Marc,

I would refer you to GF's instructions:

Before this thread goes any further.

It is going to be contained to existing capabilities.

We're not going to wander down some distracting path of Argentina having Sukhois, the UK using F-22's and the Klingons joining sides with whoever takes their fancy.

This is not going to wander down the nonsensical path where every man and his dog offers up his or her weapon system of choice just because they want to.

It might (on a cold day in hell) just about work... if Argentina actually possessed 6 airworthy hercules'!!

Current assessment (see my post on page 4) is that only 4 of Argentina's entire transport fleet is actually airworthy. If that includes more than 1 or at a push 2 of the FAAs herc fleet, i'd be surprised.

I take your point on the fact that MI6, GCHQ etc may or may not notice an imminent action. However, i'd reiterate my previous comment that the reforger op was put in to action before, precisely because these spooks noticed something untoward. Also, AG's implication that British Forces were going to be caught off-guard because the attack was going to be organised by hand-passed-notes (and perhaps carrier-pidgeons?) is simply ridiculous.

For a Herc to approach MPA, it would have to pass within sight of at least one radar station.

I would pose the question again... when Argentina has sent it's one or two hercs on a one-way suicide mission to MPA, how does it then support this battalion+ sized attack on the British?

 

[roberto]

Roberto. Whilst the UK armed forces are numerically smaller than in 1982, don't kid yourself that they are not capable of taking on Argentina. Your point that other latin american nations would assist is ambitious to say the least. What is in it for say Brazil to assist? Their defence force would receive a mauling, their economy would suffer - sanctions would hurt Embraer for example and for what? A small piece of some windswept rock thousands of miles from their coast? I wouldn't bet on it.

Brazil has alot more sophisticated leadership and consider itself leader of latin america. and counter weight to US. they have signed on Mercusor declaration.
Brazil has found world largest Oil discovery. Its economic in few years is very different. it is already leader in so many technologies.
Alot of countries are customers of its natural resources. Russia/France are competing to give it the best of Aviation/Space/Nuclaer technologies. Who will stop buying Embarer. Chinese?Indians?US airlnes?Opec Countries? and why would France(EADS) stop cooperating with Brazil when it consider it future economic giant. or do u think Germany will stop selling VW there to protest when it is facing crumbling sales in EU.
Fact of matter is UK importance in world is decreasing. No other country will care about it. It just lacks the natural resources/market strength to effect anything. It is not 1982.

 

[Marc 1]

Hi Marc,

I would refer you to GF's instructions:



It might (on a cold day in hell) just about work... if Argentina actually possessed 6 airworthy hercules'!!

Current assessment (see my post on page 4) is that only 4 of Argentina's entire transport fleet is actually airworthy. If that includes more than 1 or at a push 2 of the FAAs herc fleet, i'd be surprised.

I take your point on the fact that MI6, GCHQ etc may or may not notice an imminent action. However, i'd reiterate my previous comment that the reforger op was put in to action before, precisely because these spooks noticed something untoward. Also, AG's implication that British Forces were going to be caught off-guard because the attack was going to be organised by hand-passed-notes (and perhaps carrier-pidgeons?) is simply ridiculous.

For a Herc to approach MPA, it would have to pass within sight of at least one radar station.

I would pose the question again... when Argentina has sent it's one or two hercs on a one-way suicide mission to MPA, how does it then support this battalion+ sized attack on the British?

Yes, I understand existing capabilities, I viewed the intent of GF's instructions as preventing some fanboy from popping up with a proposal that Argentina acquired some brand new supercruising AN-124's fitted with 8 engines. Argentina, according to Wiki (yes, I realise its not that reputable a source) took delivery of 7 x C 130's of various types. One or two might be airworthy now, but what if some of these other airframes were refurbished and made airworthy again? Argentina is not exactly in the same position as Iran with its F-14's - Herc's are everywhere as are mechanics trained on the type and parts would be easier to obtain than for a fast jet type. It would not be suspicious for a country to get some of its defence assets flying again for humanitarian assistance reasons. Do you know the specific problems of each aircraft in their fleet? Hell, as Hercs are so damn useful and many airforces are upgrading their E's to J's (Australia for example) they should be able to purchase more second hand without raising too many eyebrows (although this would probably infringe GF's edict).

Perhaps they could use the 4 x F28's or even some of their F27's. The C-130's are only really needed in there ability to rapidly land buggies and the initial assault force. There are two runways one quite long. You would need quite a few vehicles to prevent a C130 using a piece of one of these runways or taxiways. Remember, the airframe only needs to make a one way trip, so even if some damage was sustained by the need to land somewhere dodgy it would be worthwhile to get the troops and vehicles in. Once the 140 or so blokes on the hercs have cleared the platoon at the airport the runways could be cleared to allow the F28's and F27's in. The main thrust of my post above was that because AB was talking about a very small force and not the entire military, satelite photos and intel may not be the panacea you believe.

If I were organising this attack, yes I would co-ordinate all planning and actions and orders by face to face means - using electronic means to pass this info would be stupid with your potential adversary having far superior elint capabilities.

The radar? No suggestion other than a raiding party deployed by TR1700 submarine. That would have to be made to look like an equipment failure with no alert being issued to provide that hole in the radar coverage that GF needs for his plan to be workable (but now things are getting a tad 'hollywood'). So this alone makes his plan even riskier.

In answer to your question about supporting the forces after the initial assault, I believe GF's plan was to evacuate the 3000 or so FI citizens, therefore the need to defend against a task force would be nullified. Me? I believe that the poms would want to retake the islands regardless, and that's where GF's plan founders.

Admin: GF Edit. I think you're talking about someone else as I haven't set a scenario - unless GF stands for "Ground Forces"

 

[Marc 1]

Brazil has alot more sophisticated leadership and consider itself leader of latin america. and counter weight to US. they have signed on Mercusor declaration.
Brazil has found world largest Oil discovery. Its economic in few years is very different. it is already leader in so many technologies.
Alot of countries are customers of its natural resources. Russia/France are competing to give it the best of Aviation/Space/Nuclaer technologies. Who will stop buying Embarer. Chinese?Indians?US airlnes?Opec Countries? and why would France(EADS) stop cooperating with Brazil when it consider it future economic giant. or do u think Germany will stop selling VW there to protest when it is facing crumbling sales in EU.
Fact of matter is UK importance in world is decreasing. No other country will care about it. It just lacks the natural resources/market strength to effect anything. It is not 1982.

Question for you - what will hurt these two company's more: VW stops selling vehicles in one market? Or Embraer stops selling to 80 or 90% of it's markets?

I have no doubt that Brazil is quite strong, but a question for you, this Mercusor agreement - all I get when I've searched is that it is a 4 nation trade agreement. Even if there is some involvement on the military side, I'm guessing it's a defence pact of some sort yeah? So if another country tried to invade Argentina, Brazil would come to their aid. I realise that Argentina has had a 'claim' over the FI for centuries, but I think Brazil will see any attack by Argentina on FI as an agression against another nation (UK) and would therefore back away from supporting such action as it would not rate as a defensive matter. It would not be in the blocks' trade interests for Brazil to join military action against the UK. Do you have more info on the parameters of the defence side of the agreement?

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Even if a British radar station at the Falklands has 20-30 minutes notice of unexpected low flying aircraft or aircrafts coming into to Mount Pleasant it is going to be very difficult to organise their defences from a low readiness posture in this time. This expectation that the British garrison is fully staffed and ready for action or close to it is totally crazy and doesn't even take into account the command cycle. The radar centre would have to work out that the incoming aircraft are a threat - not so clear cut without intelligence warning - and then notify the overall commander. This is the person who can order higher readiness. Then of course this needs to be responded too.

Mod edit: Text deleted. I think its clear that all of the particpants with open minds and reasonable military knowledge have accepted the validity of this scenario and I hope its been enjoyable for them.

 

[riksavage]

Even if a British radar station at the Falklands has 20-30 minutes notice of unexpected low flying aircraft or aircrafts coming into to Mount Pleasant it is going to be very difficult to organise their defences from a low readiness posture in this time. This expectation that the British garrison is fully staffed and ready for action or close to it is totally crazy and doesn't even take into account the command cycle. The radar centre would have to work out that the incoming aircraft are a threat - not so clear cut without intelligence warning - and then notify the overall commander. This is the person who can order higher readiness. Then of course this needs to be responded too.

Anyway its clear that some of the posters are just a bunch of web-lawyers and aren't interested in a serious discussion on this so I've had enough. I think its clear that all of the particpants with open minds and reasonable military knowledge have accepted the validity of this scenario and I hope its been enjoyable for them.

There remains gaping holes in your scenario, and questions you still have not answered. You entire argument is based on a lazy posture by the garrison. If anyone lacks knowledge of Special Forces best practice doctrine its you, not surprising considering you spent or spend most of your time hunkered down in tank!

I detect a case of very sour grapes?

If you seriously insist on continueing with the 6 x HERC Air-landing option you are going to have to look at dramatically improving your odds of survival. You MUST assume that the UK is able to activate it's ground defenses and launch CAP in time. Not making that assumption would be foolhardy and asking for disaster.

Buying additional HERC airframes is just the beginning. You then have to build a dedicated SF flight, who train night and day to perfect their low level NVG flying skills. Both the UK & US (TF160) have such dedicated flights who receive additional training, money and flight hours to perfect the complex flying skills required for such low level missions over unfamiliar hostile ground.

Next - There is NO WAY the Argentine SF Command will commit to a mission without having eyes-on first on the ground. Relying on commercially obtained satellite surveillance is not enough. They will need to insert at least 3-4 x four man teams in by Submarine (likely) or HALO (unlikely - weather to unpredictable). These small self-contained units will have two roles - first to gather intelligence, including, but not limited to: ground unit make-up, daily routine, patrol patterns and weapon system layout reporting such information back via HF to allow for micro adjustments in the planning. Secondly they will have a role of causing maximum disruption prior to HERC's getting within radar range. This will be done by including within each teams weapons cache at least one anti-material rifle. A 50. using HE rounds will cause absolute mayhem targeting F3 nose cones, radar installations and any sensitive equipment identified during the recce phase. This will not only cause irreparable damage preventing an effective CAP response, but also cause the resident infantry company to be deployed to hunt down the aggressors (leaving the RAF Reg to focus on local area defence). The OP's can then withdraw West drawing out the defensive units (they would have no choice to prevent further damage to critical assets). I would also dedicate at least one SF team to causing a major diversionary action utilising explosives to attack targets in and around the Stanley port area, thus confusing the limited garrison in to believing they could also be witnessing an SF seaborne attack, which has arrived undetected (clepper canoes deployed from submarines). ONLY THEN would I consider giving the go-ahead for the airborne landing.

All of the above still doesn't mitigate the threat of a hand-held StarStreak MAN-PAD in the hands of capable operator directed against the incoming HERCS.

Any 'professional' military commander worth his salt plans for a worst case scenario, not a best case scenario. Relying on the latter is amateurish and is doomed to fail.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

There remains gaping holes in your scenario, and questions you still have not answered. You entire argument is based on a lazy posture by the garrison. If anyone lacks knowledge of Special Forces best practice doctrine its you, not surprising considering you spent or spend most of your time hunkered down in tank!

The scenario is valid and has been used multiple times to seize an airflied. Ask the Afghans, Ugandans, Czechs, Dutch, Belgians, Norwegians and Danes who have all had this happen to them. The posture of the garrison is not lazy just realistic. You can not expect such a small force to maintain a perpetual high readiness posture.

Mod edit: Text deleted.

I detect a case of very sour grapes?

Mod edit: Text deleted. If you note all the people who have joined this discussion have actually agreed with and accepted the validity of the points I have made thought some have disagreed with the political level conclusions. Mod edit: Text deleted.

Of course anyone really concerned about the UK holding onto the Falklands should be more interested in raising force readiness rather than finding a mass of excuses for the cost cutting of defence capability. but that's your call to make and you quite clearly firmly stand behind it.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Good grief.

Post Closed after being reported by a Senior Forum Member.

We have asked that people play the ball and not the man as this could be dealt with at a technical level - not an invective level.

As before, we asked that people clean up any posts that strayed from the civil to the personal.

All Mods will now be given the opportunity to edit out the ones that are less than helpful. You will be able to edit your own posts, but the Mods will exercise discretion when they go through themselves.

Seriously, this is completely unnecessary as there are obviously individuals who do have a degree of expertise that is beyond being an internet warrior or magazine collector - all the more reason for people to argue with merit and not against the other party.

This is a useful thread and should be treated as an academic opportunity for everyone to learn something. If you disagree, then disagree. Getting amped up about someone having an opposing view serves no one well.

 

[Preceptor]

Editing of posts

Moderators have begun the process of reviewing the posts present in this thread and editing the content. It is likely that a number of moderators will be involved, editing different members posts. Once the Mod staff is satisfied with the tone and language, then the thread will be re-opened for participation. However, in order for the discussion to continue and the thread to stay open, members need to remember to keep language and tone cordial. A repeat or return to insulting posts, calling other members "fools" or that their ideas are "fantasy", will only result in the thread being closed again and possibly action taken against the offenders.
-Preceptor