If you wanted to rebuild the combat force and were willing to spend the money to get modern equipment, the best idea would probably be to enlarge the australian JSF order by adding the RNZAF order to it, keep pilots current either by exchange to the RAAF F-18 units or by reactivating the A4's. Once the JSF arrive training could be carried out through a joint program.
Hypothetically, I'd say this would be the most "sensible and practical" way to go about reinstating a "first class" ACF.
Say NZ orders 8 or 10 or 12 JSF's at approx NZ$1.2-$1.5B and these aircraft form the air combat force. Conduct JSF training and conversion in Australia via a contract, and NZ itself wouldn't need to have additional JSF's for training etc. Perhaps higher level maintenance is also carried out in Australia as a cost saving measure (on personnel, spares, tool sets etc).
Whilst the RNZAF top brass may not be entirley comfortable with this idea, the reality is NZ can't afford to go it alone with the costs and complexities of this level of leading edge sophisticated technology, so with that in mind, perhaps there wouldn't be any other option.
Back to earth now. The trouble is however, NZ Governments can't justify the expense of having the top of the line strike aircraft (eg the A-4 was the RNZAF's third choice when the Canberra replacement was whittled down to three types back in the late 1960's - the F-4 & Mirage were the first two choices after the then Govt ruled out the RNZAF following in step with Australia and procurring the F-111). Although that was then and this is now, I believe the same logic would still apply, because to justify the JSF, NZ would need to be certain that investing so heavily in the JSF would be absolutely vital to NZ's interests which would include defence of Australia, for Australia to fall would result in NZ being under direct threat also. But with no imminent threat of invasion of Australia by anyone (certainly not Malaysia for goodness sake, and surely not Indonesia) in the foreseeable future, this makes justification for the JSF really difficult over here in NZ.
(On the other hand, with the geo-political situation changing in S/SE Asia, I have some questions which I will pose on another thread after I post this eg perhaps on the Aus-NZ relations thread etc).
After going from optimistic to pessimistic, I'll go back to optimisic again (after Stuart's following quote) ....
If a National government white paper does recommend the re-establishment of an airstrike capability it must be a recommendation that is based on sound reasoning and logic and must avoid all the stupidity that led to its scrapping in the first place, that is to say no rational or logical reasons presented to keep it.
Of course, National has said its does not intend to reinstate the strike arm and I have no doubt that who ever is appointed to the job of writing the white paper will be considered 'Sound', and will produce exactly what is required (nothing to scare the horses).
A National Defence Whitepaper is vital to
dispel the foundations of Labour's defence policy, the Defence Beyond 2000 inquiry from what 10 years ago now. But I think one has to be realistic that expecting the Whitepaper to recommend restoring a full-on ACF capability isn't something that should be assumed, as you say Stuart in your last sentance above, you may very well be right.
Personally I would expect restoring the Macchi's for advanced training should happen regardless of a Whitepaper or not (under National or under Labour under Goff, if the Labour centre right ever manage to regain control) and also for recruitment and retention reasons - even the armourers don't have much career progression etc.
But I feel there is an ironical twist in Labour's scrapping of the ACF. The reason it was scrapped was political not for any other real defence or foreign policy reasons. There is no reason why an incoming National Govt should have to maintain the status quo, the concept of balanced forces is still valid even since 2001 (and perhaps in a more practical sense since 9/11 etc).
So the irony is, NZ cannot easily go it alone in re-establishing an ACF of some sort. It needs help from its best friend, its greatest trading partner and thus its most trusted pacific partner (especially with the partnership to stabilise the s.w. pacific etc), our good cousins across the ditch.
National's Whitepaper should seriously look at a partnership with Australia to reinvigorate the Macchis (it's also about upskilling the depleted support crews not just pilots etc) and develop further framework options towards re-establishing an ACF. Now that wouldn't necessarily have to be the JSF (which politically would be a hard sell in NZ), Australia would most likely be happy with anything that could contribute to regional security, that may be second hand F-16's (plenty out there), possible even second hand RAF Jaguars, possibly even ex-USN A-6's etc. However the most practical aircraft, perhaps the Grippen, or perhaps could be used F-18's (ex-USN?) or better still new Super Hornets. The beauty of the F-18 (or SH) again is training, conversion and logistics support with the RAAF, and even better still as mused about here a couple of years ago, the RNZAF may be able to acquire the RAAF low houred SH's once their JSF's come online. Remember Australia (Govt) wouldn't expect NZ to afford the JSF, but the SH or F-18 or F-16 or Grippen etc would be good enough.
