Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Gerry301]

Has anyone followed up on how the Russian army performed. In terms of equipment ? I am aware of some Russian tanks being taken out as well as three Mig 25s and a TU??. There have been reports that Russian communications were a mess as well as coordination, Artillery one place, fire control another, no smart weapons, no UAVs, reports of reactive armor with no explosives, tanks with no night vision equipment etc.etc. Care to add to the list?

 

[swerve]

Well, I just would like to point out that after WWII, Finland, Sweden, Yugoslavia and Austria were neutral, while sandwitched between NATO and the Soviet bloc- and they never been compelled to join NATO, up to this day.

No country has been compelled to join NATO. You have to ask. A few countries have been refused entry. Spain was not permitted to join for many years, for example.

Sweden chose not to join,for reasons of tradition & internal politics, but co-operated closely with NATO on the quiet.

Finland & Austria were compelled not to join during the Cold War. They have since increased military co-operation with NATO, but seem to feel secure as they are.

If those former Warsaw pact members stopped being paranoid about the "Russian threat", we wouldn't have the "encirclement" issue now.

In capitals from Tallinn to Sofia, Georgia is seen as proof that the Russian "threat" is a real, & immediate threat, & as justifying their decision to join NATO. In the Baltic states, in particular, the attitude is "But for NATO, that would be us".

 

[Waylander]

I, as some others here, am quite astonished by this talking about NATO closing a circle around Russia.

Does anybody of the guys here who has such a feeling knows of any examples where NATO as an organization intimidated other nations to join?

There is a reason why eastern european nations wanted to join NATO.
Because they just don't have these warm and fuzzy feelings when it comes to their past as a part of the Sovjet Union or as one of it's satellites.

And I as a former citizen of on one of these former satellites can fully understand them!

 

[kato]

Does anybody of the guys here who has such a feeling knows of any examples where NATO as an organization intimidated other nations to join?

Not intimidation per se, but... Germany itself was pretty much bribed to join NATO (through territorial concessions - no Saarland without joining - and a lessening of occupational oppression), and the decision was met with extreme resistance internally.

 

[Waylander]

Ah, ok could work as an example but during the integration of the BRD into NATO one certain little war was not that far in the past...

Probably as far away from a normal situation as it gets.
The fact that the BRD was occupied, without own defense and just lost a small world war speaks volumes.

 

[Feanor]

Here's an interesting eye-witness article on the conflict in Georgia.

http://www.rusrep.ru/2008/31/obe_granicy/

For NATO expansion, I think it's a pretty clear cut case. The west, primarily the USA, wants to bring them under a NATO umbrella as soon as possible so that when Russia does rise again (if it does) it won't be able to dominate Eastern Europe any more. Call it encirclement, or not, but the USA is not interested in a strong Russia that essentially has it's way within it's immediate geopolitical surroundings.

EDIT: And the Russian stock market has risen for the first time in a while.

 

[Waylander]

And I just can repeat that while it is clear that the west (not only the US) doesn't want to have a Russia which again could pose a serious and immediate threat to the security of western europe.

But all this wouldn't be possible when eastern european nations wouldn't be so afraid of a strong and possibly more agressive Russia.

There is a reason why the eastern european nations don't think very well of what the Russians did to them in the past and that they are potentially going to do the same again if they regain their strength.

That's exactly the main reason for NATO's expansion. It is because of what Russia did in the past and may do again in the future and not mainly because the west wants to see Russia on it's knees.
Or does anybody think the eastern countries would want to join NATO if they wouldn't believe in it?

 

[Grand Danois]

It's only a small handful of neocons who are planning for the fall of Russia - but they're apparently loud enough to feed Russian paranoia.

 

[Feanor]

Waylander differentiate between a government and the general population. The current governments of Eastern Europe are worried about Russian influence and Russian power, primarily because it would jeopardize their existence. Yuschenko for example is anti-Russian not because Ukraine has this great quarrel with Russia, but because a pro-Russian Ukraine simply has no need for figures like him.

 

[Stryker001]

The raids were disclosed by UPI chief editor Arnaud de Borchgrave, who is also on the Washington Times staff, and picked up by the Iranian Fars news agency. The Russian raids of two Georgian airfields, which Tbilisi had allowed Israel to use for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, followed the Georgian offensive against South Ossetia on Aug. 7.

Under the secret agreement with Georgia, the airfields had been earmarked for use by Israeli fighter-bombers taking off to strike Iran in return for training and arms supplies.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that flying from S. Georgia over the Caspian Sea to Iran would sharply trim the distance to be spanned by Israeli fighter-bombers, reducing flying time to 3.5 hours.

Northern Iran and the Tehran region, where most of the nuclear facilities are concentrated, would be within range, with no need to request US permission to pass through Iraq air space.

Russian Special Forces also raided other Israeli facilities in southern Georgia and captured Israeli spy drones, says the report.

Israel was said to have used the two airfields to “conduct recon flights over southern Russia as well as into nearby Iran.” The US intelligence sources quoted by UPI reported that the Russian force also carried home other Israeli military equipment captured at the air bases.

Our sources say that if the Russians got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment, they will have secured some of the IDF’s most secret devices for spying on Iran and Syria.

When this happened before, Russian military engineers quickly dismantled the equipment, studied it and passed the technology on to Tehran and Damascus.

You guys need to wake up and smell the coffee.

The IDF are going to another of the worlds flash points this time Kashmir to train and advise the Indians on how to combat the insurgents, similar to the role of former IDF and Mossad advisers in Georgia.Who knows what the Israeli's are up to.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221142471601&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Now the plan is to fortify the Afghan Pakistan boarder for the next two fighting seasons, the Indians with the help of the IDF target Kashmir forcing the insurgents to fight on two fronts.

Then Pakistan Army and ISI hits the insurgents in the current manor so the insurgents are forced to fight on three fronts. Pakistan keeps integrity of its sovereignty. CIA on going operation in the tribal continue as usual. Then if need be the PRC can send some forces down to their boarder, if the insurgents try to find a safe haven in the PRC with the insurgents based their. General Petraeus takes over Central Command.

Hell it sound like a plan to me, now the EU and NATO just have to increase their troop levels to 60,000 in Afghanistan.

Georgia pulled the trigger that started this chain of events under cover of the olympics, Russia did not start it. From their point of view they are in the right and really it's a bit hard to argue objectively that they are the aggressor. They did punish Georgia a bit but in the end will pull out maybe not form South Osettia but from most of Georgia. Without the provocation of Georgia this chain of events never would have happened.

Of course some of that is inaccurate I doubt they will pass along any information to anyone but still the GRU and KGB are going to have a haul of cool stuff.

From:
Sent: Tuesday, 22 July 2008 8:40 AM
To:
Subject: timeline


Shalom

My observation would be to launch the strikes at the same time of the Olympics, it will help limit news coverage on the worldwide news services and prevent poor public relations against Israel as each nation is preoccupied with their own nation at the Olympics.

Regards

Yeah it was a good idea to go during the Olympics, the IDF help plan the offensive, now I know the IDF planning and they knew the counter offensive would end that, and the US knew that no US troops were going to be put in and the UK and EU think the US is a puppet would walk into the conflict and confront the Russian Bear.

No harm done Russia got what they wanted, the enclaves which we see as a counter terrorism buffer if the war in Afghanistan is lost and the movement of foreign fighters occur back to Chechnya and further into Europe or Russia to target the pipelines, occurs. Goergia are not getting the enclaves back end of story.

Israel gets what it needs the GBU-39 smart bombs from the US.

The UK,EU and NATO got what they wanted, taught a lesson for not doing the heavy lifting in Afghanistan. Shown to be the week organization which it is without Uncle Sam's backing. Now give me the troop level of 60,000 and then Australia can increase their commitment to 3,500 as promised if a doctrine to win the war in Afghanistan was put on the table.

 

[Feanor]

Hey remember the article on the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic? Well there is now a push for an autonomous Russian region within Estonia.

http://newsru.com/world/15sep2008/avtonomia.html

The shaded areas are the proposed territory.

 

[Firehorse]

Bingo!
Where do you get the time to read these articles...

I don't watch TV anymore, for many reasons.
An English translation "Putin: The Bottom Line: An Independent Expert Report" is here-
www.russophobe.blogspot.com/search/label/essel

IMO, those BMD sites in Eastern Europe are also aimed mainly at Russia- the Russians aren't stupid and realize that. NATO has become an American tool in the "New American Century".

Russia-NATO: Return of the great game

 

[Feanor]

The BMD sites are not pointed in Russia. They're located in the wrong place for that. Politically, however, they're establishment of American influence over Eastern Europe; and therein lies the real problem for Putin.

 

[Grand Danois]

The BMD sites are not pointed in Russia. They're located in the wrong place for that. Politically, however, they're establishment of American influence over Eastern Europe; and therein lies the real problem for Putin.

Or rather a manifestion of US influence - US present and immediate presence is after all only the two BMD sites plus a base with restrictions in Bulgaria.

Yes, it could be that this is what Putin sees as the problem. However, Putin and Govt officials are making their case based on the technical argument - that the BMD itself threatens Russia...

 

[Firehorse]

The BMD sites are not pointed in Russia. They're located in the wrong place for that. Politically, however, they're establishment of American influence over Eastern Europe; and therein lies the real problem for Putin.

I agree with the 2nd part, but not the 1st. Those radars and interceptors in E.Europe can be used against BMs directly above Russia, and in the future can be upgraded specifically to target Russian airspace & BMs. In combination with BMD/TBMD infrastructure in AK, Japan, S.Korea, Norway, (+ maybe Georgia? Azerbaijan? Israel? Turkey?), to me it looks like encirclement!

 

[Grand Danois]

I agree with the 2nd part, but not the 1st. Those radars and interceptors in E.Europe can be used against BMs directly above Russia, and in the future can be upgraded specifically to target Russian airspace & BMs. In combination with BMD/TBMD infrastructure in AK, Japan, S.Korea, Norway, (+ maybe Georgia? Azerbaijan? Israel? Turkey?), to me it looks like encirclement!

Hehe. Then BMEWS in India or Pakistan or Australia is also encirclement...

If the Americans want to intercept Russian ICBM they'll have to station the interceptors in North America. The radar in the Czech Republic is not needed for EW on attacks on the US.

It's a red herring.

 

[Firehorse]

Like I wrote way before on another tread, if Iran isn't going to be allowed to have nukes, what is the real BMD purpose near Russia? Hint: Pakistan, India & China already have WMD and means to deliver them, soon to be joined by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran nuclear issue is just a convinient excuse!

 

[Grand Danois]

Like I wrote way before on another tread, if Iran isn't going to be allowed to have nukes, what is the real BMD purpose near Russia? Hint: Pakistan, India & China already have WMD and means to deliver them, soon to be joined by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran nuclear issue is just a convinient excuse!

The future: Either you have BMD or you don't. It isn't about Iran per se. It's about dissuasion. Dissuation of all those states who wish to attain WMD and the means to deliver them.

A BMD covered West diminish the value of BMD - it changes the cost-benefit equation for those who wish to attain them, there is no return on investment - dissuasion.

However, those countries will attain them anyway to point them at each other, but they will not aim for systems that can penetrate a BMD.

 

[Firehorse]

Thanks! And for Russia, either you have nuclear parity or you don't. Without it, Russians may end up on reservations like Native Americans or S.Africans!

Dissuasion never worked- the American nuclear monopoly only lasted a few years, the same for strategic bombers, subs, etc.

 

[Grand Danois]

Thanks! And for Russia, either you have nuclear parity or you don't. Without it, Russians may end up on reservations like Native Americans or S.Africans!

Most countries don't have nuclear weapons and they don't live in reservations.

Dissuasion never worked- the American nuclear monopoly only lasted a few years, the same for strategic bombers, subs, etc.

IIRC that had/has nothing to do with dissuation.