Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Firehorse]

Georgia Eager to Rebuild Its Defeated Armed Forces
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/03/w...?_r=1&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

Commentary: Israel of the Caucasus
http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/09/02/commentary_israel_of_the_caucasus/f5e1/

I found this the most interesting paragraph:

In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

Staging IAF fighter-bombers there would make sense, given the number of targets and distances involved. Could it be that now the Israeli planned raid on Iran is twarted by the US setting up & using Russia?
As for future basing for the BSF, I've read that the new proposed port in N.Caucasus near Novorosiisk often has very bad weather and therefore unsafe- ships may not be able to leave in a "Bora" wind storm.
Russia could build naval base in Abkhazia
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080829/116381759.html

NATO continues to build up naval presence in Black Sea
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080903/116513608.html

I wonder what other ships are on their way?

 

[Feanor]

The threatening statements of chaps like General Valerie Yevnevich are part of the pattern which moves the game forward. General Val, you may recall, openly stated that Russia's armed forces can beat anybody, even those receiving US help.

And they can...... by dropping a nuke on every platoon level formation. Realistically speaking this is sort of an establishment of Russian area of interest in geographic terms. The ex-USSR minus the Baltic states. We'll see what the ODKB (sorry don't know english name) summit coming up will establish and whether any more recognitions follow.

 

[Grand Danois]

And they can...... by dropping a nuke on every platoon level formation. Realistically speaking this is sort of an establishment of Russian area of interest in geographic terms. The ex-USSR minus the Baltic states. We'll see what the ODKB (sorry don't know english name) summit coming up will establish and whether any more recognitions follow.

Are you thinking of the CSTO? - which has much more potential than SCO, since there is only one alpha male in the room...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization

 

[Feanor]

Yes. That one. Armenia is currently presiding iirc. And they have their own little issue with Nagorny Karabah.

 

[eaf-f16]

Commentary: Israel of the Caucasus
http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/09/02/commentary_israel_of_the_caucasus/f5e1/

I found this the most interesting paragraph:


Staging IAF fighter-bombers there would make sense, given the number of targets and distances involved. Could it be that now the Israeli planned raid on Iran is twarted by the US setting up & using Russia?
As for future basing for the BSF, I've read that the new proposed port in N.Caucasus near Novorosiisk often has very bad weather and therefore unsafe- ships may not be able to leave in a "Bora" wind storm.

You know, I thought of the IAF using Georgia as base for staging attacks on Iran when I first started hearing about Israel's extensive military ties with Georgia. Maybe this (among other things) could explain Iran taking a relatively balanced approach towards Georgia instead of instantly spouting out pro-Russian statements like Syria and Venezuela. Of course, I'm not buying what is being said in the article since it doesn't cite sources. Not even "anonymous" ones.

 

[Feanor]

That doesn't make sense. First off Israel cut off military trade with Georgia last year on Russia's request. Second off if Georgia was an Israeli ally and a staging area for attacking Iran, then Iran should be as pro-Russia as possible. Russia just demolished the staging area for attacking them.

 

[Firehorse]

These could be just rumours and half-truths- everyone there has his own ax to grind!

Israel has strong military connections with Georgia and planned to use this country to launch an attack on Iran (enabling their fighter planes to carry out strikes without refueling). Weapons from Israel have been entering Georgia for many years and some of these were seen during the recent conflict with Russia.
However, the Russian response has upset the Israeli/US plans, as many military areas in Georgia were destroyed, along with much of the equipment that was going to be used.
Clearly the US and Israel have a specific time allotted for the Iran attack, and it is now imperative to replace the lost equipment (and repair the airfields) as soon as possible in order to get back on schedule. http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/71849

An insightful and revealing view from Isreal-
The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the Middle East
http://www.jcpa.org/Templates/ShowP...eorgian_War:_Implications_for_the_Middle_East

Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force to participate in large-scale exercises in central Russia
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080903/116521344.html

I would expect them to incorporate the recent "lessons learned" in Georgia!

Ukraine, NATO start military drills in Poland
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080902/116478044.html

I hope the Ukrainians won't get overconfident like Georgians did!

Georgia mobilizes commando units near S.Ossetia - Russian military
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080902/116487190.html

Yes, they are trying to take control of Georgian villages.

 

[eaf-f16]

That doesn't make sense. First off Israel cut off military trade with Georgia last year on Russia's request. Second off if Georgia was an Israeli ally and a staging area for attacking Iran, then Iran should be as pro-Russia as possible. Russia just demolished the staging area for attacking them.

The Arabic-language Russia Today has been trying to drive this point home to ME audiences for a while now. I swear to God. They tried to make Georgia look like Israel number 2.

Anyways, I said their statements have been relatively balanced. IIRC, Mahmoud Ahmedinjad gave out a statement that was (kind of) pro-Russia but at the same time it didn't blame Georgia for the conflict nor was it anti-Georgian. He predictably blamed the US, instead.

Iran being pro-Russia I can understand. But Iran being anti-Georgia doesn't make sense.

Why would they want bad relations with a country run by pro-Israel (and sometimes ex-Israeli) politicians that is not too far in distance from their nuclear installations? Georgia watched its whole world unravel in the first week of conflict with no one backing it up. If the Iranians made clear that they support Russia's positions and blamed Georgia for everything it would have had a very negative impact on Iran's security.

Those airfields are not going to be destroyed forever and they will eventually be repaired. But Georgia is going to stay within F-16I striking-range of Iran's nuclear installations forever and Iran can never change that.

 

[Firehorse]

Good points, but in the final analysis Iran doesn't have as much clout and weight in Georgia to sway her either way- bigger players like US/NATO/Israel vs Russia/SCO have!
From http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showpost.php?p=87147&postcount=451:

Russia exchanges 12 Georgian POWs for Adjaran general
[ 28 Aug 2008 17:49 ]

Tbilisi – APA. Russia handed over 12 Georgian POWs captured in Poti port. APA reports quoting Interfax that in exchange for this Georgia handed over General Roman Dumbadze, who was arrested for giving strong support to president of Adjara Aslan Abashidze in 2004. MP from opposition Giya Tortladze told journalists that the general had been handed over.
Major-general Roman Dumbadze was the commander of the 25th military unit of Georgia in Batumi. In 2004 when the relations between Aslan Abashidze and the authorities became tense, Dumbadze defended Adjaran leader and said he would not obey Mikhail Saakashvili. The general was arrested after the government change in Adjara and sentenced to 17 years in jail under charges of high treason.
http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=87689

In today’s Tbilisi, they apprehend that Moscow is orchestrating a new plan for Georgia, eyeing annexation of Adzharia in addition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The key figures will be General Dumbadze and Aslan Abashidze, who currently lives in Moscow.
http://www.kommersant.com/p1017503/A...oner_exchange/

I don't think "annexation" is the right term here- independence and perhaps merging with Turkey is more likely!

 

[Feanor]

As for the exercises, there are major Russian exercises dubbed Center-2008 going on, and iirc they are joint with Kazakhstan (though mainly Russian). They involve around 12 000 men and aroud 1000 armored vehicles.

 

[Firehorse]

It can be argued that cargo ships could be used instead to deliver just the humanitarian aid. This ship's impending arrival is a statement from the USN to the Russian Navy.

..the USS Mount Whitney — the flagship of the Navy's 6th Fleet — steamed through the Dardanelles early Wednesday and was expected to pass through the Bosporus later in the day. The two Turkish-controlled straits link the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_georgia

The command ship USS Mount Whitney is due to follow the two U.S. warships carrying relief supplies to Georgia. The U.S. has already delivered some aid by military cargo plane but is now shipping in beds and food for the displaced.
NATO-member Turkey has authorized the three U.S. ships to sail through the Turkish straits into the Black Sea.
http://www.eaglespeak.us/2008/08/coast-guard-cutter-dalls-joins-uss.html

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gbF2vVAVx4TOXiDUKXBNrbJPw1cA

http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=57164&source=rss

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Deleted

 

[swerve]

I don't think "annexation" is the right term here- independence and perhaps merging with Turkey is more likely!

Please! Apply a reality check. "Merging with Turkey" will not happen. No ifs, no buts, no maybes. It is absolutely, 100%, totally impossible. The very fact that you mention it destroys your credibility. Ask yourself what Turkeys attitude is to secessionist ethnic minorities in the region, what domestic political reasons it has for that, what recent precedents there are for effective annexations in the Caucasus & what the Turkish stance on them is . . etc., etc. Also consider NATO, the EU, & Turkeys other ties & relationships, & how they would be affected. Then think about what Turkey might gain.

What Russia might aim for is notional independence & effective Russian rule, or outright annexation. There aren't any other options. Either is far more problematic than the annexation of Abkhazia or S. Ossetia, for obvious (to anyone who doesn't see life as some kind of board game, in which there are no real consequences or linkages) geo-political reasons.

The only (& very unlikely) role Turkey might play in this is, if (a little more likely) Georgia asks for it, is to provide some sort of "security assistance" in the Turkish-Georgian border region, particularly Adzharia. The preservation of Georgias borders is keenly desired by Turkey, for very good reasons.

 

[Feanor]

S. Ossetia and Abkhazia are allegedly going to be admitted to the Union of Russia and Belarus which will be expanded to include those regions. Sounds like the perfect umbrella for a pair of sattelites too small to survive independently.

 

[Firehorse]

If S.Ossetia can merge with N.Ossetia, which is in the RF, there is no ironclad guarantee that Turkey can't re-absorb Adjaria. That area was part of Turkey before. BTW, most of historic Armenia is in today's Turkey. The Turks will look after their own interests 1st: relations with BOTH Russia/SCO & NATO/EU, Israel, Arabs, Greece, etc. I am just giving alternatives that may or may not eventually happen. Swerve, please don't tie my credibility to percieved lack of undestanding of a particular issue. Thanks in advance!

 

[swerve]

If you don't know enough about something to make an informed comment, then you should refrain from commenting. In this particular case, your "alternative that may or may not eventually happen" is plain silly. Having been "part of Turkey before" means nothing: Algeria, Hungary & Yemen were "part of Turkey before". Bosnia & Egypt were lost by Turkey at the same time as Adjaria, & Libya, Albania & Yemen more recently. Do you think Turkey has ambitions to reconquer them?

Of course Turkey will look to its own interest. That was exactly my point. Turkey has nothing to gain, & vast amounts to lose, by carving up Georgia. You seem to see national interests as akin to some kind of board game, in which whoever ends up with most pieces of the board wins. It doesn't work like that!

Turkeys national interests are not served by absorbing additional ethnic & religious minorities (the Adjars are not Turkish, or even Turkic: they speak dialects of Georgian, and at least half are Christian), encouraging secessionist movements (for obvious internal reasons), provoking conflicts with neighbours with which it currently has good relations, or turning its friends against it. Adjaria is small, poor, & does not want to be part of Turkey.

 

[nevidimka]

According to Mikhail Gorbechev, ( I hope I got his name right) Tbilisi is supposed to have a referendum in both Abhkazia and S.Ossetia on whether they wanna join Georgia as part of constitution when it left the Union of USSR. So even Georgian's faintest claims that both regions belong to them does not hold water, let alone using force to retake it.

 

[Firehorse]

Colonized by Greek merchants in the 5th and 4th cent. BC, the region later came under Roman rule and after the 9th cent. AD was part of Georgia. The Turks conquered the area in the late 17th and early 18th cent. and introduced Islam. Acquired by Russia in 1878, the region became an autonomous republic of Georgia in 1921. In 1991 it became an autonomous republic of the newly independent state of Georgia. Subsequently, the region became increasingly independent of the Georgian central government, leading to a crisis (2004) in which Georgia reasserted its supremacy and forced Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze into exile.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-Adjarian.html

Even if they do get independent, it will be a nominal independence, with not much wiggle room, sort of like Mongolia and Romania were "independent" from the USSR. Georgia itself, reduced in size, and soon "under new management", may remain independent, but will have to play nice and be very careful not to offend/provoke Russia again. Adjaria has no border with Russia and I don't think it will be a good idea, in the long term, to have Kaliningrad-style anclave next to NATO member Turkey. I won't be surprised if some ethnic cleansing happens there too!
Good article with a healthy dose of humour-
The Cost of Saakashvili’s Folly
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080826_the_cost_of_saakashvilis_folly/?ln

 

[Feanor]

Whoa. Azerbaijan just declined the idea of a natural gas pipeline that doesn't go through Russia during Dick Cheney's visit. Immediately after the conversation with Cheney, Aliev (Azeri president) had a phone conversation with Medvedev during which they talked about a possible meeting between the two in the near future. Looks like the regional balance is shifting already.

Meanwhile Medvedev agreed to allow a EU police contingent and monitors into the conflict area.

Finally the CSTO released a collective statement in regards to the conflict in which they supported the Russian position but refrained from any attacks on Georgia, or the USA and have not recognized independence.

 

[swerve]

Adjaria has no border with Russia and I don't think it will be a good idea, in the long term, to have Kaliningrad-style anclave next to NATO member Turkey. I won't be surprised if some ethnic cleansing happens there too!

You might find this useful, for a bit of reality - http://www.circassianworld.com/Hewitt_G.html

Note the ethnic makeup of Adjaria in 1989 - 82.8% Georgian. Since then, the Russians have almost all left, as have some of the other minorities. According to the latest Georgian census, Adjaria is 93% Georgian. There is a religious minority (numbers possibly understated by the last Georgian census), of Muslim Georgians, but somehow, I don't see them cosying up to either Russia or Turkey (which in any case, doesn't want them), so who is going to "ethnically cleanse" who?

Adjarias brief flirtation with secessionism had more to do with a local (Georgian - called Aslan Abashidze) warlord trying to set up a personal criminal fief than any separatist sentiment among the populace. There were mass demonstrations against him before Saakashvili moved against him, & his troops abandoned him. Not even Putin would lift a finger to help him: he asked for & was refused Russian help. Adjaria is over. It's firmly within Georgia, & going to stay that way. Accept it, & move on.