Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[kato]

We have a deployable armored division? :lol

Nah, Germany can dig its way out of that by saying we already have some troops in Abchasia (... even if it's just 3 police officers and 12 medics).

She's probably just trying to come across strong. And it's of course a reaction to Schröder. Note how the SPD considerably gained in surveys since last week, in particular from the Left.

 

[Waylander]

For sure we have. Our 1.PzDv is fully deployable for a long time, all the equipment is in the best shape one can imagine and there are only professionals in it. Oh no wait...

Seriously I am not interested in her wanting to make some points regaring Schröder or wanting to look like a strong leader (not directed agaonst you but against her!). The things she said are exactly the wrong way.

We didn't want Georgia in NATO before but now after this stunt it is ok?
We have massive problems with our ROEs and troop numbers in A-stan but talking about a peacekeeping force in this powdercake is ok?

 

[Ths]

Merkel!

That is perhaps the most interesting piece of news. As I predicted, the russian behavior only makes Georgia a Nato member.

 

[kato]

We didn't want Georgia in NATO before but now after this stunt it is ok?

Comment on SPTV just now: "Taking them into NATO is not exactly a peace-building measure".

After a report from Gori and surrounding areas from today, including a "no comment" from German "observers" (read: BND or similar) sitting around there.

That is perhaps the most interesting piece of news. As I predicted, the russian behavior only makes Georgia a Nato member.

Still no chance. At best, NATO (or rather: Germany and France) would keep holding possible accession for Georgia up in the air for like a decade. Sorta like the Turkey situation with the EU.

Oh, and of course one thing - pre-election campaigning in Germany will start next month (one year till election). And it'll be an extremely tight situation for Merkel, as it stands now - zero chance for a continuation of the Grand Coalition really.

 

[Waylander]

And are you happy about it?

And how is NATO going to protect it?
As if Russia couldn't run over Georgia if it wanted without NATO being able to do anything about it.
I seriously doubt that the NATO members would be willing to get into a full scale (and most likely nuclear) war with Russia for a Georgia which has been overrun already.

 

[roberto]

Turkey is not part of EU but it remaining neutral considerably weakens NATO not to mention no permission for entering into Black Sea.

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=150011&bolum=105
Turkish business interests at stake in Russia-Georgia war
Erkin is also cautious about Russia. "Turkish-Russian relations should be kept friendly," he says. "The trade volume between Turkey and Russia is expected to reach $38 billion this year. Any kind of indication showing Turkey favors Georgia may easily harm Turkish-Russian relations," he warned. He suggested that Turkey remain neutral in this conflict. "If Turkey wants to help Georgia, this can be done by providing humanitarian aid to Abkhazia and South Ossetia; otherwise, Russian-Turkish relations could suffer significantly," he added

 

[Grand Danois]

I've moved the energy related posts to a separate thread.

http://defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=151530#post151530

/GD

 

[Topmaul]

For German leadership to be talking like they are you can bet they know that there is no way on God's Green Earth Georgia will be admitted to NATO first off they are not even close to the North Atlantic! If Georgia is voted in I for one will be building a bomb shelter

 

[roberto]

Russia now consider entire Black Sea as its zone of influence.

del due to trolling. /GD

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/18/world/europe/18georgia.html?hp
Beyond South Ossetia, the Russian military has taken other steps to raise its profile. In recent days, several Bear-H bombers have carried out training missions over the Black Sea, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. The Russian bombers are capable of carrying non-nuclear cruise missiles, and government intelligence analysts have told the Pentagon that a recent Bear training flight appeared to simulate a cruise-missile attack against Georgia
Concerns over the military tensions in the region may already have influenced some neighbors. American officials said Turkish officials had denied the United States’ request that an American Navy hospital ship, the Comfort, be allowed to travel through the Turkish straits en route to Georgia. A Bush administration official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the diplomatic discussions, expressed hope that American officials would eventually persuade the Turkish government to let the ship pass

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=150523&bolum=100
US must share power’

Also Saturday, an interview with Turkey's president by UK daily The Guardian was published -- Gül's first interview with a foreign newspaper since assuming the presidency in August 2007.

The conflict in Georgia showed that the United States could no longer shape global politics on its own and should begin sharing power with other countries, Gül told The Guardian.

"I don't think you can control all the world from one center ... What we have to do is, instead of unilateral actions, act all together, make common decisions and have consultations with the world. A new world order, if I can say it, should emerge," he said.

 

[Feanor]

Lots of news. S. Ossetia is in the middle of a corruption scandal over the distribution of humanitarian aid, with large amounts of fraud speculated. Kokoitui has dismissed the S. Ossetian government. The Guardian reports as many as 131 Georgian hostages in Ts'hinvali. They were allegedly in the city when the attack began and were detained by Ossetian officials. There are rumors that Ossetia hopes to trade them for Ossetians kidnapped (or captured?) during the hostilities by Georgia. However Georgia denies having any Ossetians prisoner. S. Ossetia has said that Georgian citizens are being held under arrest as a wartime measure.

The U.N. humanitarian mission to Georgia found the city of Gori thoroughly looted. Whether this was a result of the Russian Army or just locals is unclear.

Finally Abkhazia, during it's Kodori offensive reports finding Georgian artillery and 100mm AAA (KS-19?) in the Kodori Gorge, which is a violation of the 1994 Moscow Accords. Abkhazia has begun re-establishing border posts on the Georgian side of the Kodori Gorge.

 

[nevidimka]

Btw, If Georgia is given NATO membership after this, it clearly gives a wrong signal to the purpose and establishment of NATO.

It would seem to be saying, whoever wanna wage war on their own ppl, can come and join NATO and get allied to the west, and no 1 will punish them, as NATO will be there to bail them out.

So any rogue nations/governments can join NATO and do human atrocities and look like an angel,while any other country outside of it will be punished.


I dont think NATO should give membership to Georgia after what Saakashvilli had done.

 

[Sampanviking]

Don't forget that there are two parallel conflicts in progress:

a) The big Geo Political game between Russia and NATO

b) the nasty vicious clan/mafia warfare of the Caucasus, which in many instances is simply business as usual (if you know what I mean).

You can speculate whether this is being encouraged or resisted by both sides of the big game players, but one thing is quite certain, Peacekeeping is not an empty term and there will be a real role for these guys keeping the civil factions apart.

 

[Firehorse]

Despite cease-fire, Russia digs in in South Ossetia
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=15397208

No sign of military withdrawal as Russian armour stays put
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/18/russia.georgia1

Georgia develops huge provocation against Russia
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/18-08-2008/106135-provocation-0

True or not, this could be used as justification for their drive on Tbillisi. In any case, if Georgia's entry into NATO becomes imminent, I bet the Russians will enter their capital 1st and install a new regime there to prevent that.
Captured Georgian weapons displayed:
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/georgia-3754

 

[Grand Danois]

Sweden cuts Russian military ties over Georgia

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/18/europe/EU-Sweden-Russia.php

 

[Feanor]

The Georgian tanks looks like T-72s. So Russia captured abandoned active hardware, not just some T-55's in storage.

Russia reports leaving Gori. 12 Russian soldiers are prisoners in Georgia. Finally Abkhazia is standing down from it's wartime footing, and is returning 5 of it's regions to peacetime status.

S. Ossetia asked for a Russian military base to be deployed on it's soil.

 

[nevidimka]

Are there actually any American military casualty in the war? The American instructors might have been more widespread on georgian territory than what was believed. And any casualty might probably be hushed by US so that they may not be forced to make a reply to russia's military.

 

[Firehorse]

After the GRU (Russian military intelligence) analyses them some will probably go to museums, some will be transferred to their own armories/allies, and some sold. The SOFs could also use American-made rifles in certain situations.
Russia Georgia War: Putin Walks Into Quagmire Trap
http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article5882.html

If this article is right, I hope Russia will not repeat its mistake in Afghanistan!

 

[Feanor]

The article is wrong. There will be no quagmire, as there is no occupation of Georgia proper. Only a military presence in self-governing regions, and even the escalated military presence is a temporary action. Realistically there is no room for an Afghan style insurgency.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

The article is wrong. There will be no quagmire, as there is no occupation of Georgia proper. Only a military presence in self-governing regions, and even the escalated military presence is a temporary action. Realistically there is no room for an Afghan style insurgency.

and Georgia is really not going to be packing Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia with the weapons the freedom fighters need to kick some Russian ass??????

 

[JohanGrön]

Don't forget that there are two parallel conflicts in progress:

a) The big Geo Political game between Russia and NATO

b) the nasty vicious clan/mafia warfare of the Caucasus, which in many instances is simply business as usual (if you know what I mean).

You can speculate whether this is being encouraged or resisted by both sides of the big game players, but one thing is quite certain, Peacekeeping is not an empty term and there will be a real role for these guys keeping the civil factions apart.

Is it reasonable to assume that there also is an internal powerstruggle between Medvedev and Putin shining through in the Georgia conflict?