Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Knyaz]

They'll pull back later or sooner. It's clear there's no itention to annex some other part of Georgia (except SO and Abkhazia, of course - and just before the conflict there was no intention to annex them (on official level, although many thought otherwise).

edit: although there's some chance now they may try to establish a military base in Georgia "in order to prevent hostile actions in future". Just my assumption, nothing more.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Hmmm. Europe was dependent on imported energy before "globalization". So what's the difference now? IIRC 27% percent of gas consumption in EU is imported from Russia. If Russia ceases exporting, then there's no money to fund the war machine. Simple, 3/4 of growth in Russia since the post Soviet low has been in the energy sector. Not a diverse economy. Russia needs the cashflow and mfg from EU.

Using energy as a weapon is a Damocles sword. Do it for serious once...

subtle difference, in the 20th Century the west was dependent on middle east oil, which the west controlled from 1918; we are now dependent on Central Asian gas which Russia now (totally) controls. Russians have already proven they can not be relied upon in securing our supplies and that it has no qualms in using it as a political tool. But you still haven't grasped the fact it is not Russian gas we consuming, its central Asian Turkic gas which it purchases at below market prices and sells on to the west at above market prices; lets see how happy you are going to be when you receive your gas bill this winter. Ladies gentleman we have lost the new cold war.

 

[Pro'forma]

I wait the russian will be the first to go to peace environment. Not the last one, as always before.

Appreciation of real nation today make a fortune, even past USSR
syndicate realised to be leftover.

 

[Chrom]

But you still haven't grasped the fact it is not Russian gas we consuming, its central Asian Turkic gas which it purchases at below market prices and sells on to the west at above market prices; lets see how happy you are going to be when you receive your gas bill this winter. Ladies gentleman we have lost the new cold war.

So basically, you want to tell us what without russians you would do with Asian Turkic countries exactly the same as USA done with Iraq, and force them to sell they natural resources cheap? Or did i understood you wrongly?

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

there is no quota on natural Gas production so where is Saudi/Iran/Algeria/Libya combined production does match russia. and it is by product of Oil production. And Russia currently most of it burning in air because pipeline hasnt been attached to those fields. so they alot more once infrastructure is built up to modern standards.

It is this miscalculation in economic terms that led to stupid decision incase of EU.

This is what pisses me off, the French caused this entire situation by blocking Georgian / Ukrainian membership, can you really imagine Russia setting foot on a NATO state. Then again why should the French care, they have secured their supply from Algeria and Chad, its the rest of Europe that's up shit streak subject to the vanities of a bunch of drunks in the Kremlin.

 

[Chrom]

This is what pisses me off, the French caused this entire situation by blocking Georgian / Ukrainian membership, can you really imagine Russia setting foot on a NATO state. Then again why should the French care, they have secured their supply from Algeria and Chad, its the rest of Europe that's up shit streak subject to the vanities of a bunch of drunks in the Kremlin.

Letting aggressive idiots to NATO will not help this organization and generally world security . I'm glad real NATO leaders are somewhat more sane.

Btw, it is not only French who were pissed at Georgia. It was Germany before everything. But Spain, Italy and most other EU countries (except some East EU) werent happy with Georgians either.


P.S. Very good post from some other forum: http://63.99.108.76/forums/index.php?showforum=7

It depends. What's the most damaging event for an alliance? An event which would arguably be an article 5 but with circumstances ambigous enough to make it unclear if this is really the case, thus leading to a confused and haphazard response. Even if the crisis is resolved the bedrock of an alliance, mutual trust, is likely to be irrevocably damaged and this inevitably leads to medium and longterm decline and dissolution.

Say a NATO Georgia had launched an attack like the one last week and drawn a similar response, at least to the point that Georgia is expelled from SO, is this an article 5 case? Some will say yes, some will say no. Either way, NATO credibility would be seriously damaged because whatever the response is, it's extremely likely to be divided. Georgia is too peripheric for too many NATO countries for them to potentially sacrifice everything, especially since there's a real case that Russian operations (as long as they restrict themselves to SO) are legitimate.

Russia would have the potential for virtually limitless mischief with a NATO Georgia that has festering territorial issues.

 

[Grand Danois]

subtle difference, in the 20th Century the west was dependent on middle east oil, which the west controlled from 1918; we are now dependent on Central Asian gas which Russia now (totally) controls. Russians have already proven they can not be relied upon in securing our supplies and that it has no qualms in using it as a political tool. But you still haven't grasped the fact it is not Russian gas we consuming, its central Asian Turkic gas which it purchases at below market prices and sells on to the west at above market prices; lets see how happy you are going to be when you receive your gas bill this winter. Ladies gentleman we have lost the new cold war.

Except that it is a) only 27%; b) Central Asian gas is accounted for in that number; c) Risk is managed through diversification.

The reason why gas has the role it has in Europe is because some of the large countries decided not to pursue nuclear power in the future.

However, I note that in Finland and Lithuania (Baltic States) are building major nuclear installations. Both Finland and the Baltic states import 100% of their gas from Russia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visaginas_nuclear_power_plant

The Swedes are having serious seconds thought about closing theirs and a reversal of policy is all of a sudden realistic.

I find it very possible the Czechs and the Poles will also chose alternatives from gas imported from Russia, after the Russian have shown they will tweak the flow over the last two years.

 

[Patsfan86]

Russia's Medvedev Orders Halt to War in Georgia

BREAKING NEWS — Russian President Dmitri Medvedev ordered a halt to military action in Georgia Tuesday, saying it had punished Georgia and brought security for civilians and Russian peacekeepers in the breakaway South Ossetia region

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,402043,00.html

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

So basically, you want to tell us what without russians you would do with Asian Turkic countries exactly the same as USA done with Iraq, and force them to sell they natural resources cheap? Or did i understood you wrongly?

You have completely misunderstood me, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been seeking an alternate route to the west for two decades; the original idea was a pipe line across the Caspian to Baku which was blocked by Russia and Iran. They were about to have an alternate route over Afghanistan and Pakistan, which Bush put the kibosh on following 9/11. This reignited Caspian route; however, do you really think these states are going to go against Russian dominance now that they have clearly seen the west cannot be relied upon. Let me explain it this way, remove the middle man (Russia) and your gas bill will go down despite paying a higher price to the source countries.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Except that it is a) only 27%; b) Central Asian gas is accounted for in that number; c) Risk is managed through diversification.

The reason why gas has the role it has in Europe is because some of the large countries decided not to pursue nuclear power in the future.

However, I note that in Finland and Lithuania (Baltic States) are building major nuclear installations. Both Finland and the Baltic states import 100% of their gas from Russia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visaginas_nuclear_power_plant

The Swedes are having serious seconds thought about closing theirs and a reversal of policy is all of a sudden realistic.

I find it very possible the Czechs and the Poles will also chose alternatives from gas imported from Russia, after the Russian have shown they will tweak the flow over the last two years.

Dude, 21st century gas - 22nd Century Thorium bear that in mind.

 

[Grand Danois]

Dude, 21st century gas - 22nd Century Thorium bear that in mind.

No, no - Tiberium.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

No, no - Tiberium.

you been playing command and conquer again.

 

[kato]

Btw, it is not only French who were pissed at Georgia. It was Germany before everything.

On a side note, Germany will be keeping its 15 token soldiers in Abchasia and not evacuating them.

It's planned that Merkel will meet Medvedev on Friday in Sochi on the Black Sea coast, essentially right on the Abchasian border.

I'd expect Russia to have withdrawn to within South-Ossetian/Abchasian borders by Friday morning, or made other good-will gestures

As stated before, Georgia will likely not be admitted for NATO membership due to their own actions, even if they applied, Russia wouldn't interfere, and the USA would support it. Germany and France are both pissed now, and have started coordinating their responses since Sunday.

 

[Chrom]

You have completely misunderstood me, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been seeking an alternate route to the west for two decades; the original idea was a pipe line across the Caspian to Baku which was blocked by Russia and Iran. They were about to have an alternate route over Afghanistan and Pakistan, which Bush put the kibosh on following 9/11. This reignited Caspian route; however, do you really think these states are going to go against Russian dominance now that they have clearly seen the west cannot be relied upon. Let me explain it this way, remove the middle man (Russia) and your gas bill will go down despite paying a higher price to the source countries.

I still cant see how it would affect oil prices in any way. Yes, Asian countries may receive slightly more money for they natural resources. But they surely will not sell them below world prices. I also cant see how it would make EU THAT much secure. In case of so great hostilities what it comes to energy embargo - these pipelines will be blown up anyway.

Yes, Russia right now is dominant country in that region. And will remain so in foreseeable future. And it will be very, very stupid to step in Russia shoes so far what it comes to full political and economical war.

P.S. World oil & gas prices are high NOT because evil Russia or Saudi Arabia artificially drive them up. No. It is because not enough natural resources produced in the world, and now West is not the single costumer. Now it must compete with emerging economies like China and India. THIS drive prices up.

 

[eaf-f16]

Letting aggressive idiots to NATO will not help this organization and generally world security . I'm glad real NATO leaders are somewhat more sane.

Btw, it is not only French who were pissed at Georgia. It was Germany before everything. But Spain, Italy and most other EU countries (except some East EU) werent happy with Georgians either.


P.S. Very good post from some other forum: http://63.99.108.76/forums/index.php?showforum=7

Hence why countries with unsettled territorial disputes (like Georgia) are not allowed into NATO.

By the way, something interesting in the McClatchy article caught my attention.

Outside Tskhinvali, Georgian soldiers huddled beneath trees and bridges, trying to stay out of the line of sight of passing Russian jets. In addition to military trucks, [Georgian] troops were being moved around in civilian buses and vans. In Gori, soldiers worked out of a university building.

They had to hide; there was no answer to the [Russian] Su-25 fighter jets, TU-22 bombers and others streaking nearby, looking for prey.

I wonder what international law has to say about. Soldiers "working" out of universities and moving around in civilian buses and vans, I mean.

 

[kato]

International law? No problem, as long as vehicles or houses aren't marked with a Red Cross or Red Crescent, and the soldiers wear a discernible sign of nationality on their at least somewhat uniform clothes.

 

[Chrom]

Except that it is a) only 27%; b) Central Asian gas is accounted for in that number; c) Risk is managed through diversification.

The reason why gas has the role it has in Europe is because some of the large countries decided not to pursue nuclear power in the future.

However, I note that in Finland and Lithuania (Baltic States) are building major nuclear installations. Both Finland and the Baltic states import 100% of their gas from Russia.

There is nothing what prevent them to import Gas from Brasil. Yes, somewhat more expensive. But i think "energy security" is more important, no?

Nuclear energy have a good share of problems on its own. Besides, Russia one of world leaders in that tech also.

The Swedes are having serious seconds thought about closing theirs and a reversal of policy is all of a sudden realistic.

I find it very possible the Czechs and the Poles will also chose alternatives from gas imported from Russia, after the Russian have shown they will tweak the flow over the last two years.

Good for them. Read EU officials forecast. EU is predicted to INCREASE oil & gas consumption - not to decrease. And believe me, Gasprom would be happy if EU find some way to reduce gas consumption. Russia (and Asia, contrary to what you say) struggling to find enough gas & oil for export already as is. Some gas pipelines from Asia (NOT Russia depended, btw) are not fully utilized right now due to insufficient gas & oil resoruces.

Right now in EU we starting to see a fight for Russian (and Asian) resources. And contrary to what publicly told by medians, every EU country is competing for self, trying to secure future routes for ITSELF. So Germany (and France) are very happy seeing how Sweden and Poland "gain independence" from relative cheap Russian resources as it will allow "old Europe" become a sole consumer, gaining invaluable economical advantage.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

I still cant see how it would affect oil prices in any way. Yes, Asian countries may receive slightly more money for they natural resources. But they surely will not sell them below world prices. I also cant see how it would make EU THAT much secure. In case of so great hostilities what it comes to energy embargo - these pipelines will be blown up anyway.

Yes, Russia right now is dominant country in that region. And will remain so in foreseeable future. And it will be very, very stupid to step in Russia shoes so far what it comes to full political and economical war.

P.S. World oil & gas prices are high NOT because evil Russia or Saudi Arabia artificially drive them up. No. It is because not enough natural resources produced in the world, and now West is not the single costumer. Now it must compete with emerging economies like China and India. THIS drive prices up.

**** oil - how long is that going to last 20-30 years?

http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4817

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

http://www.eurotopics.net/en/magazi...elines_2007_06/zahlen_und_fakten_gasreserven/

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Fuck oil - how long is that going to last 20-30 years?

http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4817

forgot to mention - about 30% of gas reserves in middle east is in Iran another Russian sphere of influence. More importantly most of the extraction facilities expertise is in central Asia; granted the Turks recently secured a deal to develop the Iranian gas fields.
As for the idiotic suggestion regarding Brazil, I think Latin America amounts for under 10% of world reserves.