But this article would have us believe otherwise-
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gene...trikes Back With Air Defenses&channel=defense
Caucasian Powderkeg?
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http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gene...trikes Back With Air Defenses&channel=defense
Because Russia is using unupgraded airforcs using dumb bombs at low level most of the time. There is no Su-27SM for high altitude precision strikes nor there is upgraded Tu-160. Its cheap disposable airforce of Soviet era.
weasel1962
New Member
Re:
Uh, even if the Russians lose 20 aircraft, its not going to make a dent in its ability to enforce total air superiority over Georgian airspace or its continuing ability to carry out air strikes.
Incidentally, I think the toll is 5 now (with another Su-25 down, possibly by friendly fire...)
Aviation week notwithstanding, the SAMS, if they have not run out, are not having a significant impact on air ops or the ground conflict though...
Uh, even if the Russians lose 20 aircraft, its not going to make a dent in its ability to enforce total air superiority over Georgian airspace or its continuing ability to carry out air strikes.
Incidentally, I think the toll is 5 now (with another Su-25 down, possibly by friendly fire...)
Aviation week notwithstanding, the SAMS, if they have not run out, are not having a significant impact on air ops or the ground conflict though...
That depends-for a start, you have been generalising about the EU, without thinking that there are several countries in the EU that do not rely on Russian gas-like the UK for instance (and we are making sure we don't ever depend on Russia) and France who produce more Nuclear power than Russia (EDF being the worlds leading supplier of Nuke Power).
And you have missed the fact that Russia will not cut of the hand that feeds it. And don't presume prices will rise. Russian gas is still available, just not to Europe there is still the same amount of Gas on the market. Europe would find another energy source-and Russia will lose customers. Do not be presumtive that China will want to feed the Russian economy by buying energy.
I don't know much about Oil-but I know Saudi Arabia has the largest reserves anywhere in the world, followed by the likes of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Canada. Russia does not control this market so exclusively.
From where Europe is sitting, Russia's ecomony has more to lose in the medium to long term from cutting of gas to Europe.
You do not see things outside of the box. Your message is clear from many threads-you believe Russia is the best at everything. Russia is not an energy superpower-it is just one country among many wanting to sell its spare supplies to make a **** load of money. If forced to Europe will look for other supplies. And Grand Danois has already pointed this out.
And i'm still at a loss as to what the Truck market has to do with the South Ossetian War.
BlackAdder
New Member
Likewise, am at loss as to what the truck market means to bankrupting EU industrial giantsThat depends-for a start, you have been generalising about the EU, without thinking that there are several countries in the EU that do not rely on Russian gas-like the UK for instance (and we are making sure we don't ever depend on Russia) and France who produce more Nuclear power than Russia (EDF being the worlds leading supplier of Nuke Power).
And you have missed the fact that Russia will not cut of the hand that feeds it. And don't presume prices will rise. Russian gas is still available, just not to Europe there is still the same amount of Gas on the market. Europe would find another energy source-and Russia will lose customers. Do not be presumtive that China will want to feed the Russian economy by buying energy.
I don't know much about Oil-but I know Saudi Arabia has the largest reserves anywhere in the world, followed by the likes of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Canada. Russia does not control this market so exclusively.
From where Europe is sitting, Russia's ecomony has more to lose in the medium to long term from cutting of gas to Europe.
You do not see things outside of the box. Your message is clear from many threads-you believe Russia is the best at everything. Russia is not an energy superpower-it is just one country among many wanting to sell its spare supplies to make a **** load of money. If forced to Europe will look for other supplies. And Grand Danois has already pointed this out.
And i'm still at a loss as to what the Truck market has to do with the South Ossetian War.
nfloorl: And i fail to notice any existing pipelines with which Russia can divert its gas and oil to other markets. And pipelines, you know, it's not something you build overnight. Especially in Siberia.
Ur mistaken in alot of assumption. A country like UK is depend on capital inflows from rest of the world. what will happen to its banking sector/real estate when rest of EU is in depression due to Russian energy politics.
China/NK/SK/Japan/India/Taiwanese the whole East Asia and the even include US is customer for Russian Gas and natural resources. Ever thought why taiwanese/malaysians are building fabs in Siberia. there is strict give and take going on. Russia has amassed so much weath that it can afford to ignore EU for couple of years and still survive.
Russia already has direct railway link to China and is supplying Oil through rail and not only that its oil flows through Kazak pipline. Parts from Korean companies are directly deliver thourgh rail lines. there is huge infrastructure going in go east policy. EU is just sleeping.
http://www.inform.kz/showarticle3.php?lang=eng&id=167276
Russia has even more than all combined. it is just they dont want to show or produce more than 10 million barrels per day. so Oil price does not drop.
Russia has nothing to lose by bending EU to its own hagemony. its Central Asian workers along with Koreans and Chinese that are employed in vast projects. It is EU that needs to sell its industrail machinery otherwise the firms will close down.
Truck market show economic weakness thats why no one is taking a strong stand. and Truck market is not only weakness. Airlines are even bigger.You do not see things outside of the box. Your message is clear from many threads-you believe Russia is the best at everything. Russia is not an energy superpower-it is just one country among many wanting to sell its spare supplies to make a **** load of money. If forced to Europe will look for other supplies. And Grand Danois has already pointed this out.
And i'm still at a loss as to what the Truck market has to do with the South Ossetian War.
Even optimistic predictions only put Russias Oil reserves at 200 Billion Barrels. Saudi Arabia has at Least 264 Billion-so Russia cannot beat the five I named (which also happen to be the top five).
I don't know if you have noticed, but the UK is in a depression. You know we are the most vocale country in Europe when it comes to opposition to this war because we rely on Russia for so little compared to other European countries.
If Russia has got so much wealth why are its Armed Forces still so decrepit?
Russia has everything to lose-Russias economy has grown due to selling energy when many parts of its economy are still suffering from life under the Soviets. Do you really think that if you suddenly dumped oil and Gas supplies destined for Europe on everyone else they will want to pay the same price when so much is available to them? No they will expect to pay less because you have more available to them because you refuse to sell to Europe.
And I don't know if you have noticed, but the worldwide Airline industry has been in general decline since 9/11. And BA, Air France/KLM and Lufthansa are in better condition than many US and Russian airlines, so what is your point?
From where I am sitting you have produced several Strawmans, false statements and some completely irrelevant points to come to the conclusion that Russia must have one of the strongest economies in the world and can bankrupt the EU overnight. Unless you can produce a coherant argument that supports this i'm going to leave this issue here.
I don't know if you have noticed, but the UK is in a depression. You know we are the most vocale country in Europe when it comes to opposition to this war because we rely on Russia for so little compared to other European countries.
If Russia has got so much wealth why are its Armed Forces still so decrepit?
Russia has everything to lose-Russias economy has grown due to selling energy when many parts of its economy are still suffering from life under the Soviets. Do you really think that if you suddenly dumped oil and Gas supplies destined for Europe on everyone else they will want to pay the same price when so much is available to them? No they will expect to pay less because you have more available to them because you refuse to sell to Europe.
And I don't know if you have noticed, but the worldwide Airline industry has been in general decline since 9/11. And BA, Air France/KLM and Lufthansa are in better condition than many US and Russian airlines, so what is your point?
From where I am sitting you have produced several Strawmans, false statements and some completely irrelevant points to come to the conclusion that Russia must have one of the strongest economies in the world and can bankrupt the EU overnight. Unless you can produce a coherant argument that supports this i'm going to leave this issue here.
BlackAdder
New Member
B***shit. China's currency reserves are much bigger than Russia's at 1,76 trillion USD, and still it is enough only for 1,5 year imports. Whereas Russia does not export anything of significance besides oil, gas, some metal and arms. And has inflation in double digits and imports of consumer goods increasing by 10 percent every month.
So how come that still absolute majority of Russia's energy exports still go westwards despite Russian efforts to diversify?
And you forget to mention that all those reserves are outside of fields currently under the exploitation, and no new fields were started to develop since 1990, because Russia had lacked, first, capital and know-how, now only know-how to do that. You might be interested that RAO OES, Russian electricity giant, predicted recently forthcoming electricity production shortages because of gas shortages and, ditto, failure to run gas-fired plants into full capacity. Witness to that end current Russian moves to tax more energy exports since they are needed for domestic consumption. Again, because of failure to develop new fields.
You forget that in EU much more people are employed in services than in industry. Stop thinking in terms of Marxist economy - industrial machinery and stuff. Check the latest figures about respectively employment in industry/services within EU and output generated in these sectors.
So if Saudi has so called 264 billion of Oil so why it is still producing the same 10 million barrels of Oil which russia can do with old Soviet technology. and Second point. natural gas is directly related to Oil. Russia production is bigger than any body else by huge margin because its price is determined by long term contracts so extral supply does not hurt like Oil.
U rely so little. every thought about Russian companies IPOs on FTSE and when they dreid up what happened to stock market. and what happened to those high end housing market.
who says that?. Have u seen the collapsing Georgian army with in 3 days with all the Western training and no embargo or open desert like Irak and that without modern airpower or systems that Russia can use. it is just disposing cheap soviet era ammunition.
keep beliveing on this. Georgian thought the same way when they started. what happened.
They are certainly not in better conditions than Russian airlines. they are completely depended on Russian airspace use.
that true. Russia is the strongest economy in the world. when u look at real picture. Japan only had $592b. (Dont confuse these figure with foreign exchange resevers which are used for subsidizing exports)
This economic weakness/dependency lead to this result in the War
... OPEC. Production Quotas and all that. Besides, it's a supply-driven market.
Lets see the whole picture for a while please. You cannot loose both Russia controlled oil/gas reserves along with Iranian oil/gas reserves. World economy can't handle it. If US go down the path of confronting Russia in the energy sector over this, then they effectively diminish their ability to confront Iran for several years. Georgia's doom was putting them in the corner and asking them to choose.
there is no quota on natural Gas production so where is Saudi/Iran/Algeria/Libya combined production does match russia. and it is by product of Oil production. And Russia currently most of it burning in air because pipeline hasnt been attached to those fields. so they alot more once infrastructure is built up to modern standards.
It is this miscalculation in economic terms that led to stupid decision incase of EU.
Do you guys seriously believe that US/NATO/EU will militarily confront Russia and start an all out WW-III ? With so many nukes on both sides it is not even a remote possibility. Georgia is a lost cause and can be salvaged a little bit by clever diplomatic efforts (Make Sakashvilli to sign a no agrression pact against S. Ossetia and Abhkhazia). Otherwise this one is game,set and match to Russia.
Even tough economic measures are not a possibility since this is a open market era and not cold war days. Tough Economic sanctions against Russia means all sides lose and that no one can afford.
Even tough economic measures are not a possibility since this is a open market era and not cold war days. Tough Economic sanctions against Russia means all sides lose and that no one can afford.
Sampanviking
Banned Member
Or indeed storm Georgian cities like Gori in force. It shows that the Russian desire is to keep the Georgian Military and as much of the country itself intact.
From what I can make out, it has been purely military and military Infrastructure targets that the Russian Airforce have attacked, no attacks on power stations, bridges, Georgian Government Ministry Buildings or Parliament, Railways or TV/Radio Stations.
It all reinforces the notion that ex intelligence officer Putin is going to cut a deal with Georgian Military Intelligence to deal with the problem themselves in return for minimum damage.
windscorpion
New Member
I think the only people who seriously believed that was Sakashvilli and his ministers.
Sifting through the fog and spin (from both sides) it looks like the Russians are firmly in control now and all Georgia can do is just wait for the terms.
weasel1962
New Member
Re:
I think the Russians are now seeking demilitarisation of Georgia. What that means is that either Georgia gives up its arms (and consequently its ability and right to defend itself) or Russia will do it for them (ie in one or several pieces).
Should this be seen as a goodbye present for Bush or a welcome present for the next guy? :nutkick
Or wait for the tanks...
I think the Russians are now seeking demilitarisation of Georgia. What that means is that either Georgia gives up its arms (and consequently its ability and right to defend itself) or Russia will do it for them (ie in one or several pieces).
Should this be seen as a goodbye present for Bush or a welcome present for the next guy? :nutkick
weasel1962
New Member
Re:
Yup.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080812/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=As5E_5GKmrLcxcLOSZQQAPCs0NUE
It could be a pause only. Doesn't say that the troops will pull back from current frontlines. This means the Russians still occupy a fairly large tract of land outside of S. Ossetia. And they are not negotiating with Saakashvili.
Yup.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080812/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=As5E_5GKmrLcxcLOSZQQAPCs0NUE
It could be a pause only. Doesn't say that the troops will pull back from current frontlines. This means the Russians still occupy a fairly large tract of land outside of S. Ossetia. And they are not negotiating with Saakashvili.
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