Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Grand Danois]

Actually it is Russia that bought Capitalist and that even includes China in most of cases. EU is too poor now to purchase anything.

Actually it is 50% gas and 25% oil. and Russia has now exclusive agreements in North Africa/Central Asia which will further raise the price. EU practicall has no choice. EU has to eat what Russia dish out and that includes enforced Peace.

actually it is much more than 30% of EU truck market size.

24% in 2005. You're confusing import and consumption.

That's one.

http://www.europeanenergyforum.eu/a...as-matter/eu-natural-gas-market-at-crossroads

I'm quite confused where you're going re the trucks. You claim EU is beggars who cannot choose, yet you post material that suggest a symbiotic relationship!

I didn't get an answer to my question, but you know what? Swerve did collate the numbers at some point, so searched DT:

Production 2006 (in thousands)
Germany - 5399 cars, 209 heavy lorries, 202 light commercial vehicles, 9 buses.
USA - 4366, 462, 6435**
Japan - 9757, 699, 1017, 11
China - 5233, 703, 1057, 195
France - 2723, 55, 387, 4.1
Russia - 1172, 88, 218, 24
India - 1473, 230, 211, 30
Brasil - 2092, 106, 379, 34
S. Korea - 3489, 240**, 111

EU - 16171, 578, 1791, 41

* SUVs, mostly
** light & heavy combined

Light/heavy split varies by country, from as low as 3.5 tons up to 7. Buses includes minibuses with at least 8 passengers & heavier than the local light commercial vehicle limit. Does not include assembly of CKD or SKD kits.

http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/

The link now has 2007 numbers. It does seem like Russians buy Euro trucks. But where are you going? I sense another disconnect.

 

[roberto]

24% in 2005. You're confusing import and consumption.

That's one.

http://www.europeanenergyforum.eu/a...as-matter/eu-natural-gas-market-at-crossroads

I'm quite confused where you're going re the trucks. You claim EU is beggars who cannot choose, yet you post material that suggest a symbiotic relationship!

I didn't get an answer to my question, but you know what? Swerve did collate the numbers at some point, so searched DT:



The link now has 2007 numbers. It does seem like Russians buy Euro trucks. But where are you going? I sense another disconnect.

ur figures are wrong. It puts China figures got wrong and japan also. number of trucks per year in Russia is now Second to China. It is MAN/MB/Scania that trying to enter Russian market so that it can save itself from collapsing market in EU/US.

 

[Grand Danois]

ur figures are wrong. It puts China figures got wrong and japan also. number of trucks per year in Russia is now Second to China. It is MAN/MB/Scania that trying to enter Russian market so that it can save itself from collapsing market in EU/US.

I still don't know where you're going wrt the trucks.

So do you think 27% of EU gas consumption is the correct figure?

 

[Firehorse]

Newly rebuild railroad there can greatly speed up Russian troops relocation. Then i talked about weeks needed for troops relocation, i forgot about Abkhazia and its railroad. Seems Black Sea navy marines also played a role in ground operation.

That's what I implied in one prev. post! I also think that Mr. Saakashvili will loose his job at the very least, and very soon. Khalilzad: Russia Said Saakashvili 'Must Go'
Georgia, unlike Turkey, is entirely in Asia, and shouldn't even been thinking about joining NATO.

But he has ignored Kissinger's dictum: 'Great powers don't commit suicide for their allies.'

IMO, having a pro-Russian Georgia will also end Armenia's vulnurable geopolitical situation and give Russia direct overland access to Iran. http://www.historyplace.com/worldhistory/genocide/turkey-armenia.gif

A couple articles:

Russia bids to rid Georgia of its folly
The Georgian push into the breakaway region of South Ossetia was not intended to hold it, but to destroy it, ending secession by liquidating its people. The Russian response has put a halt to that, and then some. If a ceasefire follows soon, Georgians and Russians might be able to agree that the unpopular President Mikheil Saakashvili bears responsibility for the war. This will place the United States and France at severe odds. - John Helmer (Aug 11, '08)

Saakashvili overplays his hand
The strategy of Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili is clear. His only chance of success in his bid to regain control of the Moscow-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia is to globalize the conflict and turn it into a central front of a new struggle between Moscow and the West. However, he appears to have badly miscalculated the West's willingness - and ability - to intervene. (Aug 11, '08)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html

Georgia: America admits it has few options for dealing with Russia-Georgia war

 

[roberto]

I still don't know where you're going wrt the trucks.

Russia is EU largest truck market. and most of it controlled by Kamaz & UAZ but now EU manufacturers want to enter it to save there collapsing position in other places. it will Russia that will save EU Industrial giants from bankruptcy in face of increasing Asian competition.

So do you think 27% of EU gas consumption is the correct figure?

here a little older figures. Now figure is 50% gas and 25% Oil. and it dose not even incluede CA gas
and there is Nuclear Fuel supply to most fuel plants now also. Russia largest producer of full nuclear cycle. EU has simply no choice. it will even have to import solar panels in long term.

http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/geopolitics-eu-energy-supply/article-142665
Oil:

45% of EU oil imports originate from the Middle East;
by 2030, 90% of EU oil consumption will have to be covered by imports
Gas:

40% of EU gas imports originate from Russia (30% Algeria, 25% Norway);
By 2030, over 60% of EU gas imports are expected to come from Russia with overall external dependency expected to reach 80%.

 

[Grand Danois]

Russia is EU largest truck market. and most of it controlled by Kamaz & UAZ but now EU manufacturers want to enter it to save there collapsing position in other places. it will Russia that will save EU Industrial giants from bankruptcy in face of increasing Asian competition.

here a little older figures. Now figure is 50% gas and 25% Oil. and it dose not even incluede CA gas
and there is Nuclear Fuel supply to most fuel plants now also. Russia largest producer of full nuclear cycle. EU has simply no choice. it will even have to import solar panels in long term.

Excellent - so it is 27% of consumption. Thank you.

 

[jollymon]

This has been interesting as it has developed. The immature stratagy of the Georgian army and air force is beyond understanding. They had key logistical stranglepoints that should have been eliminated to slow the Russian advance into Oss region and rail structures in the Western regions. Who the hell fights a war like this? I am not saying that the Georgians could win a protracted battle but the stratigic moves so far have been absolutly blattent yet ignored. You blow up the tunnels, roads and briges leading into oss region from Russia as you commence the attack. Not to dismiss the use of MLRS systems on urban civilian populations. It is absolutly criminal to do without advanced warning. The response of the Russians however is something which speaks loudly to the future intentions of the Union. A land bridge to Iran is a perfect goal for what is certain to be a conflict arising in the latter half of this year. After the presidential elections and before the swearing in. Thanks for electing McCain Russia This is how the Bush administration treats an Ally, I am embarressed. The EU, UN and US should all be ashamed for the lack of action in taking the initiative on stopping Georgia. No way their president went ahead with this attack without intel agancies all over the world having been lit up. Russia will not waste a moment capitalizing on this mistake. They have a big backyard and a pretty big stick, which they are going to swing hard. This is the beginning of many very bad events. (for America and the EU and our allies in the region)

On the other hand.... If it looks too good to be true, it often is. So to the communist backers in the forum I would seriously hold off on celebrating just yet. I am aware that you have a vigilant online propaganda machine. You can google some of the comments from a few of the earlier pages made by specific pro russian memebers and see that these comments are verbaitm copied to/at other defence and conflict related websites. Consider the source of your information. God bless and I hope this conflict has a speedy resolution and I am wrong about the future direction this moves our countries in.

 

[eckherl]

What is your source for that 200 figure?

BBC has been saying Georgia had 82 main battle tanks.

To be a little closer to the numbers Georgia has in access of 210 T-72s and 46 T-55AMs. Technology upgrade for the T-72AV-SIM-1 are from Ukraine, Czech republic and the U.S.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Looks like Russia has a number of options with the thrust into Georgia.

(i) annex Gori and surrounding areas on behalf of South Ossetia. That will cut a major LOC for Georgia to its west.

(ii) enforce a no-fly or DMZ around that area.

(iii) occupy Tblisi using the same rationale bush used for Iraq ie removing a genocidal leader and installing a pro-russian puppet government.

(iv) blast Georgia into the stone age and let US/EU pick up the pieces ie pay for reconstruction.

Right now, the problem is that there isn't much sanction for Russia even if it does occupy Georgia. With 40% of fuel in the EU coming from Russia, its going to be a tightrope to walk.

No one will consider a military option until and unless Turkey comes onboard.

I think emplacing a stryker brigade (or preferably a larger multinational peacekeeping force) in the Georgian capital should be an option on the table. Whilst Tblisi remains in friendly hands, the situation can still be salvageable.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

This has been interesting as it has developed. The immature stratagy of the Georgian army and air force is beyond understanding. They had key logistical stranglepoints that should have been eliminated to slow the Russian advance into Oss region and rail structures in the Western regions. Who the hell fights a war like this? I am not saying that the Georgians could win a protracted battle but the stratigic moves so far have been absolutly blattent yet ignored. You blow up the tunnels, roads and briges leading into oss region from Russia as you commence the attack.

Firstly, the Georgians didn't calculate on Russian intervention. They should have and that's the main strategic mistake.

Credit to the Russians, I think the Russians have used airborne and heliborne troops to their advantage. Georgian troops that remain in forward areas could have been rapidly encompassed. I don't they had much options once the Russian intervened.

Also, tunnels, roads and bridges should only be demolished as one is retreating. I think the Russians picked up the pace a little too fast for the Georgians to effect a scotched earth policy. They only took 3-4 days to occupy S. Ossetia. Not surprising considering the amount of heavy equipment the Russians brought into South Ossetia.

From the amount of casualties on both sides, the Georgians seems to have avoided large scale confrontations. The primary goal was probably to maintain army integrity. Not a bad move considering the strategic blunder.

If the army had been destroyed in S. Ossetia, Georgia will have fallen by now.

 

[Grand Danois]

Right now, the problem is that there isn't much sanction for Russia even if it does occupy Georgia. With 40% of fuel in the EU coming from Russia, its going to be a tightrope to walk.

Less than 25%.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Don't forget too that Russia already had "peacekeepers" on the ground in Ossetia. I think more credit should be given to Russian planning.

 

[Firehorse]

No one will consider a military option until and unless Turkey comes onboard.

Absolutely, I concur with that! Chance of that happening is very slim- the Turks have their own internal (recent alleged coup attempt, terrorist attacks) and external (PKK in N.Iraq) problems to deal with- they won't risk infuriating the Russian bear, which has a lair in Armenia. And historically, Russia and Turkey have fought several wars over the Transcaucasus, with Christian Georgia & part of Armenia ending up in the Russian Empire.

 

[Type59]

Less than 25%.

25 percent is still alot. It is enough for fuel shortages thus a recession.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Less than 25%.

Noted. But even 20% is a significant amount to make up. That's severe disruptions to industry that can't be made up overnight. And that's assuming no other disruptions to oil supplies eg Venezuela, Iran etc supporting a Russian embargo.

Its a tightrope to walk.

 

[Grand Danois]

Noted. But even 20% is a significant amount to make up. That's severe disruptions to industry that can't be made up overnight. And that's assuming no other disruptions to oil supplies eg Venezuela, Iran etc supporting a Russian embargo.

Its a tightrope to walk.

With these addenda I'll agree.

 

[Type59]

Obviously Russian airforce has been devasting. Heres an insight on how it is effecting Georgia military.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20080811/wl_mcclatchy/3015456;_ylt=ArLcogkBwPeulvGTsohOrndvaA8F

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

With Russian supremacy over georgian airspace, it'd be risky now to fly in any multi-national force into Tblisi.

Probably need to fly into Turkey and go via the land route into Georgia. Again the Turkey question remains.

 

[roberto]

Less than 25%.

the day Russia shut off gas supplies. the other suppliers will raise the prices. and u will face depression. EU is completely economically impotent in all respects in front of Russia. just the platinum supply for catalytic converters in autos have enviornmental consequences.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=66054&sectionid=351020602
Officials from gas producing countries will meet in Moscow on November 17 to discuss the possible charter of an OPEC-style gas alliance.

"The main issue of the (gas) forum is to steadily turn it into a (formal) organization," a source in Russia's Energy Ministry told Reuters on Saturday on condition of anonymity.

Energy ministers from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Qatar, Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Indonesia will participate in the November meeting

 

[Grand Danois]

the day Russia shut off gas supplies. the other suppliers will raise the prices. and u will face depression. EU is completely economically impotent in all respects in front of Russia. just the platinum supply for catalytic converters in autos have enviornmental consequences.

Haha! You have to bring something new all the time! Lateral displacement of discourse, as I like to call it.