South American Tensions

[eckherl]

You are so right this is how I started following South American military matters in the first it was right after the Peruvian-Ecuadorian 1995 war. Soon after Peru got rip off buying some used and hardly flyable Mig-29As and a batch of Su-25, that Peru like right away. I read from a Peruvian in this other forum that France wanted $10 million per to upgrade Peru's old 1988 Mirage 2000-P to 5 standards. He also state that Russia was doing well in the first round of upgrades working on the Peruvian Fulcrums when Peru ran out of money and stop paying. Ecuador's oil industry is doing a little better so one can expect future purchases I'm thinking Chinese, but its only a feeling. Colombia should have got F-16s two or three years ago to sort of keep up a little with Venezuela. Peru has always been a Russian and French shop but I think for the US not to lose another South American government and since Peru and Colombia share a border, maybe let them in on the F-16 deal. Keep LM production lines open until 2014/15, why not. I think Brazil should stop thinking about building subs and get a Rafale factory setup already. If Bolivia leans a little more toward Venezuela I see a squadron of Chinese made K-8 flying with China buying up there natural gas. I can't figure out Argentina they never bought Russian or Chinese before (fighters) and are mad at the US but can't afford French prices, so I do know any ideas? http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon10.gif
Talking

Is the Rafale deal off the table with Brazil, I figured for sure that they would go for it.

 

[ROCK45]

Rafale

It's difficult to figure out Brazil and the Rafale deal might be open just moving in slow motion, strange. Brazil just doesn't sign on the dotted line for reasons I just don't know. They need fighters and if bought or made in numbers F-5, AMX, and even the Mirage 2000-Cs could all be replaced and really standardized there air force program. Cut massive operational cost across the board in training, weapons, and maintenance. Might be the 3rd or 4th best all fighter around, good range, good payload, descent radar, MICA missiles are rated high-maybe costly is the problem. France's own air force uses them currently and has made them there main fighter/attack platform so the fighter has a future. And there's even a proven carrier tested type active not in prototype form but real and operational. My guess is there must be options when you order it that customers want that jumps this aircraft up in price to well over $100 million and it's just said in public. Maybe the French try to put so many different items in a arms deal? I don't know but it should be selling.http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/images/smilies/unknw.gif
:unknown

 

[drg]

IMO Brazil is going to go with more Mirage 2000s rather than Rafales. Besides, Taiwan looks set to become 2nd customer of Rafale, currently.

 

[contedicavour]

Sarkozy is pushing like crazy to get a deal with Brazil, even ready to help with building SSNs. I still expect Brazil to be the 1st export customer (unless Libya takes a few before).

Amazing how it is getting out of hand in Latin America... Ecuador is sending its troop to the border with Colombia to protest over the raid which eliminated the farc number 2.

I just wish good luck to Colombia and support them 100%...

cheers

 

[merocaine]

Apparently Urbire lied to his Ecuadorian counterpart about the nature of the strike, claiming it was a case of hot pursuit, when Ecuadorian forces arrived on the scene they realized it was a targeted assassination. Which rightly peed Ecuador off.
Happy for Columbia taking some Farc scum out, but Columbia needs to respect its neighbors.
For Chavez who seemingly allows Farc drug traffickers free reign on the border, this is a case of making a statement to Columbia that Venezuela is not Ecuador.

 

[contedicavour]

Apparently Urbire lied to his Ecuadorian counterpart about the nature of the strike, claiming it was a case of hot pursuit, when Ecuadorian forces arrived on the scene they realized it was a targeted assassination. Which rightly peed Ecuador off.
Happy for Columbia taking some Farc scum out, but Columbia needs to respect its neighbors.
For Chavez who seemingly allows Farc drug traffickers free reign on the border, this is a case of making a statement to Columbia that Venezuela is not Ecuador.

Yeah except that Venezuela has clearly supported farc within colombian territory, which means that the situation is boiling hot... anyway hopefully nothing will happen, or at worst only a few border skirmishes

cheers

 

[merocaine]

Yeah except that Venezuela has clearly supported farc within colombian territory, which means that the situation is boiling hot... anyway hopefully nothing will happen, or at worst only a few border skirmishes

cheers

Except the problem is there is no hard evidence at the moment. although there are alot of reports coming out now about the Venezuelan military providing security for Farc camps in Venezuelan territory. And worse, training for Farc operatives. But again nothing concrete.
Columbia doesent have the muscle to square up to Venezuela, at the moment if a border dispute broke out Venezuela would own the sky, Columbia could say goodbye to there airforce if they tried to take em on. And on the ground the Columbians would have little to prevent an incursion, there a light infantry force, the Venezuelans would be able to fight a combined arms battle, with control of the air....

 

[Generalissimo]

. And on the ground the Columbians would have little to prevent an incursion, there a light infantry force, the Venezuelans would be able to fight a combined arms battle, with control of the air....

Well the Venezuelans certainly could own the sky, but it is by no means a sure thing, it's not that lopsided. And even if they did I don't know if they have the means to fight a "combined arms" battle, with IIRC their only Air-to-Ground capable platforms being 10 F-16s in unknown shape. Are those Sukhois capable of hitting ground targets?

And Columbia's military is just light infantry but there isn't much better terrrain for light infantry than Andean mountains and Amazon basin. But offensive action against Venezuela is out of the question for Columbia, if they are acting alone (without US help). They could act against Ecuador, but they would be hard pressed on the Venezuelan front if they split their resources.

I'm surprised that the US has let this go so far. It's really quite irresponsible, when a firm statement of support for Columbia would put an end to this. Perhaps the US wants war to start as an excuse to get rid of Chavez.

 

[rrrtx]

Except the problem is there is no hard evidence at the moment. although there are alot of reports coming out now about the Venezuelan military providing security for Farc camps in Venezuelan territory. And worse, training for Farc operatives. But again nothing concrete.
Columbia doesent have the muscle to square up to Venezuela, at the moment if a border dispute broke out Venezuela would own the sky, Columbia could say goodbye to there airforce if they tried to take em on. And on the ground the Columbians would have little to prevent an incursion, there a light infantry force, the Venezuelans would be able to fight a combined arms battle, with control of the air....

I think a US carrier group off the coast might tip the balance in Columbia's favor as far as the air battle goes. The US would probably intervene if it looked like Chavez was going to make a serious military move.

 

[merocaine]

I think a US carrier group off the coast might tip the balance in Columbia's favor as far as the air battle goes. The US would probably intervene if it looked like Chavez was going to make a serious military move.

I dont think it would go as far a march on Bogata, most lightly it would involve a few airstrikes and driving there tanks around the border for a couple of days, show the Columbians that they can't do to much about it.
Anyway Chavez is'ent going to make a move without Columbia making a move, this is a warning to Columbia not to touch Farc in Venezuelan territory.

Chavez is playing a dangerous game, narcotics smuggling has a habit of rotting militarizes from the inside out, by aiding Farc he is allowing links to build up between his military and drug dealers, this will only serve to undermine his base.

 

[contedicavour]

I guess Chavez can just let the farc loose even more than today inside Colombia to keep the Colombian army busy... but then he would really be longing for some special treatment like what Gheddafi got in 1986
Unfortunately I'm just joking, with overstretched armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and still sizeable deployments in Korea I don't see the US doing anything serious to tackle Chavez.

cheers

 

[Chrom]

Well the Venezuelans certainly could own the sky, but it is by no means a sure thing, it's not that lopsided. And even if they did I don't know if they have the means to fight a "combined arms" battle, with IIRC their only Air-to-Ground capable platforms being 10 F-16s in unknown shape. Are those Sukhois capable of hitting ground targets?
.

Yes, Su-30 definitely are fully capable of A-G work. They can employ full range of guided A-G weapons.

Chavez sabre ratting right now, but he surely dont want any active attack on foreign territory.

 

[merocaine]

I guess Chavez can just let the farc loose even more than today inside Colombia to keep the Colombian army busy... but then he would really be longing for some special treatment like what Gheddafi got in 1986
Unfortunately I'm just joking, with overstretched armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and still sizeable deployments in Korea I don't see the US doing anything serious to tackle Chavez.

cheers

I read a couple of investigative reports in the last few months detailing how elements of the Venezuelan armed forces were helping train Farc operatives in bomb making and intelligence. Also facilitating gun running and drug smuggling on the border by suppling protection. Now this was coming from Columbian army intelligence and Farc deserters, so not the most reliable of sources. But still it does seem that Chavez if not aiding them is turning a blind eye to Farc activites.

As in special treatment? what his Daughter murdered and country shot up? what has he done to deserve that kind of treatment????

 

[rrrtx]

I dont think it would go as far a march on Bogata, most lightly it would involve a few airstrikes and driving there tanks around the border for a couple of days, show the Columbians that they can't do to much about it.
Anyway Chavez is'ent going to make a move without Columbia making a move, this is a warning to Columbia not to touch Farc in Venezuelan territory.

Chavez is playing a dangerous game, narcotics smuggling has a habit of rotting militarizes from the inside out, by aiding Farc he is allowing links to build up between his military and drug dealers, this will only serve to undermine his base.

I agree. And all the US would probably do is shoot down a couple of their planes. And destroy all 3 of their tanks (har!).

Chavez is in fact playing a serious game here. Other South American governments may tolerate a certain amount of political interference but things are much different when it comes to security.

 

[exported_kiwi]

As I said earlier, I very much doubt that the US'd do anything overt in order to not give Chavez any more reason to be anti American.I guess that if he harbours FARC groups inside his country, knowing full well that his neighbour has an ongoing counter insurgency going against them, then he's a few cans short of the ole proverbial 6 pack......just another example of meglomania, a bit like Ahminedoodad in Iran!

 

[eckherl]

As I said earlier, I very much doubt that the US'd do anything overt in order to not give Chavez any more reason to be anti American.I guess that if he harbours FARC groups inside his country, knowing full well that his neighbour has an ongoing counter insurgency going against them, then he's a few cans short of the ole proverbial 6 pack......just another example of meglomania, a bit like Ahminedoodad in Iran!

He is about as anti American as one could get, at the request of Columbia for U.S assistance if needed would put a end to all of this blabbering from Hugo. From the looks of it the U.S and Columbia are sitting back and watching the show, when we have had enough of it I am quite sure Hugo will get a phone call that he will most certainly not want to miss for the sake of his future. You can only play that low grade crude oil trump card for so long.

 

[Generalissimo]

Yes, Su-30 definitely are fully capable of A-G work. They can employ full range of guided A-G weapons.

Chavez sabre ratting right now, but he surely dont want any active attack on foreign territory.

Oh I was under the impression that the VAF bought Su-27s. Su-30s are a different story. They are certainly congratulating themselves on that decision now. Although it is unknown how many missles, etc. that the Russians provided in the deal.

This incident will end up hurting Chavez more than it helps him, no matter what happens. He'll look like a fool and a warmonger, and weak too (if he fights he'll lose if the US intervenes which is probable, and if he backs down he backs down). People in South America who gravitated toward him are going to be repelled by this (his popularity internationally was already slipping quite a bit).

The fact that Venezuela made that weapons deal with Russia and only a short while later Chavez went and caused this issue (because his response is what did it, not the raid) just shows me that when he bought those weapons he was itching to use them.

 

[merocaine]

He is about as anti American as one could get, at the request of Columbia for U.S assistance if needed would put a end to all of this blabbering from Hugo. From the looks of it the U.S and Columbia are sitting back and watching the show, when we have had enough of it I am quite sure Hugo will get a phone call that he will most certainly not want to miss for the sake of his future. You can only play that low grade crude oil trump card for so long.

Chavez may have grabbed the headlines on this, but remember Brazil, Chile, Italy and Cuba, among others, condemned the incursion into Ecuador
And Ecuador has severed diplomatic ties. Quito has also sent 3,200 troops to its border.

So Chavez may be anti-american, but Columbia has put a lot of noses out of joint on this. First they lie to the President of Ecuador, then they claim that Quito's goverment is in league with Farc, then they apologise...not the most graceful of diplomatic manovers.

 

[Chrom]

Oh I was under the impression that the VAF bought Su-27s. Su-30s are a different story. They are certainly congratulating themselves on that decision now. Although it is unknown how many missles, etc. that the Russians provided in the deal.

Su-30MK2. Not as advanced as MKI, but it wouldnt matter much in that case. Besides, even Su-27 would be able to employ same full range of A-G ammunition (i mean, Su-27 would be at least upgraded to cheap SM level before shipping).

This incident will end up hurting Chavez more than it helps him, no matter what happens. He'll look like a fool and a warmonger, and weak too (if he fights he'll lose if the US intervenes which is probable, and if he backs down he backs down). People in South America who gravitated toward him are going to be repelled by this (his popularity internationally was already slipping quite a bit).

This is very tricky and i wouldnt be as certain. Such behavior certainly will hurt Chavez in the eyes of West - but to tell the truth, West already dont like him

On the other hand, Chavez would gain point among some other South America nations, some other anti-West countries, and what much more important - in internal politic.

The fact that Venezuela made that weapons deal with Russia and only a short while later Chavez went and caused this issue (because his response is what did it, not the raid) just shows me that when he bought those weapons he was itching to use them.

I think "use" not necessary active bombing - i think "use" more like sabre rattling and threat postures.

P.S. Columbia is no holy land either. In fact, i dont think many peoples in South America like Colombia, rather quite contrary. Thats why Chavez may actually gain points - while forcing USA losing points openly defending Columbia.

 

[Stryker001]

Hugo Chavez was half right when he said the US wanted to bring Venezuela into conflict, war by proxy, I guess Venezuela will not being voting for OPEC to increase production.

A strategy similar to Iran and many other countries create the problem re: support for militants and then provide the solution.