South American Tensions

[Firehorse]

Thanks, I didn't know that; but I do know that Panama was once a part of Colombia- interestingly, the US supported her separation to build the Panama Canal, and more recently there were some plans to build a 2nd canal in Colombia. I guess they'll have to sort out their problems 1st before investing in those plans. To me, the S.American situation is similar to Africa- both were colonized and now have periodic wars, border conflicts, coups and ongoing rebellions/insurrections, with frequent outside interference, often by former colonial powers. BTW, France still has a colony there called French Guiana.

What position, if any, do Suriname and Guyana take in this latest crisis?

 

[Chrom]

How could one reasonably expect those contracts to stay in place?

But, this is whole reason! So they do not stay in place ! No?

 

[ROCK45]

Oil contracts

mysterious
Its common knowledge by now that all agreements that Saddam had with regards to oil provision to Russia, China, etc were rubbished by the United States once the Saddam regime fell. Now, all preferential treatment is for U.S' allies especially Israel; which obviously has benefitted the most.

mysterious & chrom
You think the US invaded Iraq to kill off the former oil agreements with Russia and China? For that to be anywhere near being true Iraq would have to been the largest producer in the world to make a difference. And Israel benefits the most why do you think there oil tankers are lining up and filling up for free? If the US was stealing Iraqi oil the world press would be so over it big time. I think your both off base on this and China was always Iran largest oil customer something like 38% of China oil comes from Iran. So how did this effect China so much? China buys there oil from many customers to. The arms sales that Russia lost to Iraq is chump changes compared to what oil is worth. Chrom do you mean Iraq was going to another India/China customer in size to Russia's arms industry and the war killed it? Russia needed Iraq's oil I don't get it? Most of Iraqis oil was blockaded anyway for years so most of there oil wasn't on the market anyway? If you can explain please.

Can I have a little detail on this "common knowledge by now" comment because isn't clear. So all this has to with Bush and the oil companies personally making money? Sounds like a little US bashing to me.

 

[mysterious]

mysterious & chrom
You think the US invaded Iraq to kill off the former oil agreements with Russia and China? For that to be anywhere near being true Iraq would have to been the largest producer in the world to make a difference. And Israel benefits the most why do you think there oil tankers are lining up and filling up for free? If the US was stealing Iraqi oil the world press would be so over it big time.

I didnt say that was the reason for invasion. It was a by-product of the plan to streamline & stabilize American energy interests that superceded those of Russia, China & others. Israel already gets some Iraqi oil at discounted rates and there are credible plans to revive an old pipeline that would deliver oil straight from Northern Iraqi oilfields to Haifa. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...1.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/06/21/ixportal.html Also, check out: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4354269.stm

Can I have a little detail on this "common knowledge by now" comment because isn't clear. So all this has to with Bush and the oil companies personally making money? Sounds like a little US bashing to me.

It is no 'bashing' to say something stinks when it does.

Anyways, enough of US-Iraq-Oil triad for me. Am here for the South American discussion.

 

[ROCK45]

Ortega

The link you attached had this toward the bottom and other countries would also benefit as well from such a pipeline connecting to the Med. Back to topic.

But the project is unlikely to become reality before a permanent settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

Ortega is getting a billion dollar refinery out of this he'll back up Chavez no matter what. I was wondering does Venezuela maintain forces near Guyana would part of these 10 battalions becoming from that region? Unless to do road deployment training isn't moving (10) battalions pretty difficult? Is there any free press left in Venezuela to report things?

I don't know how long it take helicopter gunship pilots to be trained would Venezuela's Hind-35 be able to take part? If any fighting took place?

 

[radiosilence]

I was wondering does Venezuela maintain forces near Guyana would part of these 10 battalions becoming from that region? ?

It doesn't really matter. Guyanese security forces(police and army) are very busy battling criminal gangs causing mayhem in the country. Even if they weren't they don't pose a threat to Venezuela.

 

[rrrtx]

But, this is whole reason! So they do not stay in place ! No?

No.

To assert that Bush wanted Iraq for the oil contracts just doesn't make sense. Look at how expensive the war is. The cost can never be recovered through revenue from activity of US oil company operations in Iraq. Even if you are cynical enough to believe the war was undertaken for the money you simply can't support the financial calculation. It could never have been a profit making enterprise.

 

[ROCK45]

causing mayhem

Guyana that bad of a place I didn't know that. If gangs are other bad criminal elements are there can I assume drugs pass through it's borders? I follow South American military topics but not the smaller countries. Does England deploy forces there? The reason I asked would Guyana let US Forces deploy there?

 

[rrrtx]

On the contrary it is quite a meaningful move. It isolates Columbia further & when that happens, Washington's influence in the region takes a tumble.



If you haven't really noticed; moving of troops to border areas by both Ecuador & Venezuela is largely symbolic. Neither of the two states are interested in a military confrontation despite Chavez' outbursts. The one thing that Washington may learn from this whole episode is how effective 'diplomatic manouvering' can be as a weapon instead of using a military options.

Both Ecuador & Venezuela have sought to isolate Columbia & Nicaragua is simply following suit given its close relations with the two. They're already achieving their objectives diplomatically, I don't foresee any military action as a result.

A little local knowledge of Nicaraguan politics would be helpful in the analysis. Ortega doesn't really even have a political mandate in Nicaragua. The Sandinistas aren't what they were in the 80's. They've been out of power for 20 years and have only regained it because the opposition vote was split in the last election. It's a real stretch to say his position in support of Venezuela matters in the politics of the region.

I agree that there won't be any military conflict between countries in South America as a result of this. I'm simply pointing out that Nicaragua coming out against Columbia is irrelevent and a little comical.

 

[Firehorse]

Russia is expected to start delivering several Sukhoi fighter jets, Mi-24 armored helicopter gunships and Kalashnikov AK-103 assault rifles to Venezuela this year, said Mark Joyce, America’s Editor at Jane’s Country Risk, a branch of Jane’s Intelligence Review, which monitors arms procurement worldwide.
Chavez has talked about purchasing five diesel submarines. In the meantime, Venezuela is set to begin construction this year on a factory that would manufacture assault rifles, Joyce said. ..
Chavez has called upon regional neighbors such as Nicaragua and Ecuador -- countries whose leftist leaders are staunch allies of Chavez -- to form a military alliance against the United States. Both countries have so far rejected the notion of a united military front.
But Chavez promised that Ecuador "can count on Venezuela for whatever it needs, in any situation," saying although he didn't want war, he would not allow "the Empire" meaning the United States or "its lap dog" Colombian President Alvaro Uribe "try to make us weaker." ..During his visit to Colombia in January, Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, raised concerns about Venezuela’s arms purchases.
"To the degree these capabilities come into the theater," Mullen said, "they are a great concern — not just to Colombia, which has been expressed, but to the region, and in fact very much to the United States."
The United States has succeeded in thwarting at least one effort by Venezuela to buy arms abroad.
A proposed deal with Spain to buy F-16 fighter jets and several naval ships was “effectively vetoed by United States,” said Joyce. The United States prohibited Spain from selling the fighter jets and naval vessels to Venezuela because they contained U.S. parts and technologies. ..But in an interview with the Washington Times last year, Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez said that his country was preparing for any "asymmetrical conflict" with the United States, and that Venezuela’s arms acquisitions were being carried out in compliance with all international and regional nonproliferation treaties.
"We have simply been trying to upgrade our military equipment and maintain our defense while preserving balance in the hemisphere," said Alvarez.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334852,00.html

see the latest news here.

This is still far from over!

 

[radiosilence]

Guyana that bad of a place I didn't know that. If gangs are other bad criminal elements are there can I assume drugs pass through it's borders? I follow South American military topics but not the smaller countries.

Its a transshipment point for drugs to the United States and Europe but not on significant level.

http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/news-6397--13-13--.html

Does England deploy forces there?

The UK is sending trainers and equiptment to assist the security forces battle the criminal elements. No troops will be deployed.

The reason I asked would Guyana let US Forces deploy there?

Short answer is no because Venezuela sells subsidize oil to Guyana as well as to neighboring states.

 

[Generalissimo]

This issue will be around for a long time. Chavez is probably going to be around for a while, and his loose coalition of assorted anti-Americans in Latin America (Evo Morales in Bolivia, the Communist Party in Cuba, Correa in Ecuador, Ortega in Nicaragua and other "allies of the moment") will be opposed to America's allies (Columbia and Peru are the main ones, other countries are suspicious of Chavez as well). Brazil and Argentina are essenitally the superpowers of South America. They have remained aloof from various Chavez-related incidents over the last few years (although IIRC there was a scandal in Argentina relating to illegal funds for politicians campaigns from Venezuela). This specific incident will vanish but the tension will stay.

The military issue will also be around for a while. FARC is not going to die out, especially since it has support and "rear areas" in Venezuela and Ecuador. FARC willl be a permanant tool for Chavez to use against Venezuela, destabilizing the region through cross-border attacks and drug trafficking. The situation will be very similar to that of Turkey and the PKK in Iraq or the Taliban crossing into Afghanistan from Pakistan. The Columbians will be able to minimize FARCs military significance, but never destroy it, and that will ruin relations and cause instability for years to come.

 

[swerve]

Thanks, I didn't know that; but I do know that Panama was once a part of Colombia- interestingly, the US supported her separation to build the Panama Canal, ...

More like instigated than supported.

 

[contedicavour]

Nicaragua is run by the newly reelected Sandinistas. Their economy is propped up by Chavez' subsidized oil. What a surprise they are now supporting the Venezuelan-Ecuadorean axis...

Regarding oil, yes emerging countries' needs have pushed prices up. However most of the developed world is on the verge of a recession with industrial production going down. In such a situation sky high oil prices can only be justified by preceived geopolitical risks AND difficulty of getting supplies because state-controlled companies such as PDVSA are starved of funds and competent personnel. Since Chavez took power Venezuela has lost over 1 million barrels of oil (annual) of capacity. This is about 30% down.

Anyway now is the time Brazil start acting as the regional leader it should be... and act as a mediator between the Chavez axis of caudillos and Colombia. Golden opportunity to show to everybody that Brazil is still the local heavyweight. The deal could be that Colombia apologizes for the crossing of Ecuador's border, and that in exchange Venezuela and Ecuador pretend to stop FARC a bit more...

cheers

 

[gf0012-aust]

Golden opportunity to show to everybody that Brazil is still the local heavyweight.

Everyone in Sud America knows that Brazil is the local heavyweight - even Chavez.

 

[contedicavour]

Everyone in Sud America knows that Brazil is the local heavyweight - even Chavez.

Yes but they should also act like it. First of all by taking the lead on diplomatic actitivity to stop this confrontation turning into a border war. Secondly by suggesting some sort of Latin American common framework for handling guerrilla forces operating across boundaries (no invasion of countries even in hot pursuit in exchange for joint patrolling of borders...)

cheers

 

[rrrtx]

Nicaragua is run by the newly reelected Sandinistas. Their economy is propped up by Chavez' subsidized oil. What a surprise they are now supporting the Venezuelan-Ecuadorean axis...

Regarding oil, yes emerging countries' needs have pushed prices up. However most of the developed world is on the verge of a recession with industrial production going down. In such a situation sky high oil prices can only be justified by preceived geopolitical risks AND difficulty of getting supplies because state-controlled companies such as PDVSA are starved of funds and competent personnel. Since Chavez took power Venezuela has lost over 1 million barrels of oil (annual) of capacity. This is about 30% down.

Anyway now is the time Brazil start acting as the regional leader it should be... and act as a mediator between the Chavez axis of caudillos and Colombia. Golden opportunity to show to everybody that Brazil is still the local heavyweight. The deal could be that Colombia apologizes for the crossing of Ecuador's border, and that in exchange Venezuela and Ecuador pretend to stop FARC a bit more...

cheers

I agree that oil prices will probably drop. Economies that are not diversified and depend on a single commodity like oil are always highly vulnerable to the price swings that most commodities experience. Chavez has his oil revenue and little else to keep him in power. When that goes away he probably does too.

I do worry that if Chavez starts getting into trouble he will be tempted by military adventurism. These authoritarian types always seem attracted to it. And he has been inexplicably building up his military.

 

[eckherl]

The link you attached had this toward the bottom and other countries would also benefit as well from such a pipeline connecting to the Med. Back to topic.



Ortega is getting a billion dollar refinery out of this he'll back up Chavez no matter what. I was wondering does Venezuela maintain forces near Guyana would part of these 10 battalions becoming from that region? Unless to do road deployment training isn't moving (10) battalions pretty difficult? Is there any free press left in Venezuela to report things?

I don't know how long it take helicopter gunship pilots to be trained would Venezuela's Hind-35 be able to take part? If any fighting took place?

Good news Rock45 for Columbia - it looks like outlaw Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout was arrested in Thailand yesterday coordinating a sizable shoulder launched surface to air missiles and armor piercing bullets deal for you know who, macho man Hugos little terror buddies that got hit in Ecuador, no wonder Hugo is upset, things seem to be unraveling before his very eyes and it is costing him alot of money that he could use for the needy in his own homeland. That landing site for this arms purchase was most likely set up in either Chavez`s backyard or in Ecuadors. U.S DEA also helped in the arrest and will get to deal with this Russian tyrant after Thailand gets done with him.

 

[Stryker001]

Part of the anti-US coalition Chavez, he is not a complete fool as the media like to make out. He knew that by negotiating with the FARC would result in Colombia taking action against the FARC. He wants to bring the US into a war in South America…part of the anti-US coalitions plans to weaken the US.

Re: the surface to air missiles, what about the shipment going to Hamas, hopefully the arrest has disrupted that…for the time being.

 

[eckherl]

Part of the anti-US coalition Chavez, he is not a complete fool as the media like to make out. He knew that by negotiating with the FARC would result in Colombia taking action against the FARC. He wants to bring the US into a war in South America…part of the anti-US coalitions plans to weaken the US.

Re: the surface to air missiles, what about the shipment going to Hamas, hopefully the arrest has disrupted that…for the time being.

That is not what CNN news has reported, the missles were in fact going to the FARC. Do you honestly thing that Chavez wants to see the U.S in a all out war in South America, that would be total suicide for him, his very own military would topple him fore even suggesting it.