South American Tensions

[Chrom]

You do realize what that would do to oil prices which is already over $100/barrel.

Do you realize what USA oil corporation are the ones who benefit from high oil prices the most? USA elite dont want low oil prices. No. They want to control oil. Preferably, expencive oil. Think about it...

 

[contedicavour]

You do realize what that would do to oil prices which is already over $100/barrel.

Well prices are over 100 USD (106 as I write) precisely because nobody seems able to do anything about Chavez' warmongering...

cheers

 

[radiosilence]

Do you realize what USA oil corporation are the ones who benefit from high oil prices the most? USA elite dont want low oil prices. No. They want to control oil. Preferably, expencive oil. Think about it...

There are Big oil companies all over the world. Russia and Europe have them too so they are also benefiting from high oil prices.

 

[radiosilence]

Well prices are over 100 USD (106 as I write) precisely because nobody seems able to do anything about Chavez' warmongering...

cheers

I am no fan of Chavez but he is not the primary cause of high oil prices.

 

[rrrtx]

Do you realize what USA oil corporation are the ones who benefit from high oil prices the most? USA elite dont want low oil prices. No. They want to control oil. Preferably, expencive oil. Think about it...

It's a bit more complicated than that. Shell and British Petroleum are 2 of the biggest and they are European. How do US elites benefit when BP is making a lot of money? Does "Royal Dutch Shell" sound like a pawn of powerful US oil interests?

No reason to beat up the US here. They are just one of many countries with extensive oil exploration and recovery operations all over the world.

 

[rrrtx]

I am no fan of Chavez but he is not the primary cause of high oil prices.

This is true. Demand is high because of the rapid economic development in countries like India and China. I do think that a great deal of the remaining oil supplies are in countries that are not particularly stable and this does contribute to the high prices. Venezuela falls in this category but is not important enough by itself to cause the runup in prices.

 

[Manfred2]

The price of wheat has tripled, and corn is going way up too... I wonder what else Chavez needs from us?

Maybe it's just that money itself just isn't worth much anymore.

 

[Chrom]

There are Big oil companies all over the world. Russia and Europe have them too so they are also benefiting from high oil prices.

Aye. Sure. But to lesser extent... However, this is the irony of situation - one of the strongest USA adversary - Russia - also benefit from high oil prices... On the other hand, another, may be even greater adversary - China - greatly suffer from high oil prices...

But what is most important - USA elite, when choosing between own pockets and some remote benefits of russian oil companies - what they choose, how you think?

 

[Chrom]

It's a bit more complicated than that. Shell and British Petroleum are 2 of the biggest and they are European. How do US elites benefit when BP is making a lot of money? Does "Royal Dutch Shell" sound like a pawn of powerful US oil interests?

No reason to beat up the US here. They are just one of many countries with extensive oil exploration and recovery operations all over the world.

It is known - very strong ties between certain oil companies and Bush, and also many others in his administration. Besides, as i said, control over oil become even more important - f.e. control to whom Iraq may sell oil...

 

[eaf-f16]

Well the Venezuelans certainly could own the sky, but it is by no means a sure thing, it's not that lopsided. And even if they did I don't know if they have the means to fight a "combined arms" battle, with IIRC their only Air-to-Ground capable platforms being 10 F-16s in unknown shape. Are those Sukhois capable of hitting ground targets?

They're Su-30's, that's practically what they're made for. And the Su-30's Venezuela has are MUCH more capable platforms in the air-ground role than any of the F-16's there.

And Columbia's military is just light infantry but there isn't much better terrrain for light infantry than Andean mountains and Amazon basin. But offensive action against Venezuela is out of the question for Columbia, if they are acting alone (without US help). They could act against Ecuador, but they would be hard pressed on the Venezuelan front if they split their resources.

I'm surprised that the US has let this go so far. It's really quite irresponsible, when a firm statement of support for Columbia would put an end to this. Perhaps the US wants war to start as an excuse to get rid of Chavez.

I doubt it would. Chavez knows that Venezuela and Ecuador would cream Colombia militarily if all the US does is weapons shipments. That is what's been giving him the courage to take things this far.

Lucky for Colombia air-superiority doesn't quite guarantee the victory in the type of terrain they're in like it does in open desert battlefields.

The Colombian Army is quite an experienced force. Even more so than their South American counterparts mainly due to their continous operations, not just training. They have made an impact over past few years, enough to drive the FARC across their borders into neighboring countries. Even though countries such as Venezuela have made recent military hardware acquisitions, I do not feel they are at the same higher level of experience as Colombian troops.

I don't know how the Colombian National Army compares top thers in the region. IIRC, there are anti-narc teams trained by the Navy SEALS in Colombia. They might come in handy if a conflict breaks out.

Well prices are over 100 USD (106 as I write) precisely because nobody seems able to do anything about Chavez' warmongering...

cheers

That has more to do with America's warmongering than it does with Venezuela's.

Iraq war, threats to Iran, etc.

Anyways, I think this going to end soon (diplomatically), but i doubt Colombia is going to come out of this looking great. Venezuela just banned $6 Billion imports (easily replaceable imports) from Colombia to Venezuela. That is one major blow for Colombia.

Colombia did a very bad move making that incursion into Ecuador, it seems...

 

[eaf-f16]

Just saw this.

Link

A leftist Latin American alliance formed around Ecuador and Venezuela on Thursday, isolating their U.S.-backed neighbor Colombia, which said the dispute over its bombing of rebels on Ecuadorean soil would not end in war.

Leaders crisscrossed the region putting diplomatic pressure on Colombian President Alvaro Uribe after his forces bombed rebels inside Ecuador during the weekend.

With governments worldwide, including the United States, calling for a negotiated solution, Colombia downplayed fears over what would be the first military conflict between Latin America nations in more than a decade.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who says socialism can unite South America against "U.S. imperialism," jumped into the dispute during the weekend after feuding for months with Colombia over his efforts at mediating the release rebel-held hostages.

Chavez has warned that war could break out and Ecuador and Venezuela both sent additional troops to their borders with Colombia. Other officials said they doubted the crisis would lead to military conflict involving the three states on the northwestern shoulder of South America.

"I don't think there is a risk of war. The Colombian government has been very clear it won't use force," Colombian Vice President Francisco Santos told Reuters during a visit to Brussels for talks with EU officials.

"It won't fall into the game of provocation."

In a show of unity, Chavez hosted his Ecuadorean counterpart. Argentina's leftist president, Cristina Fernandez, also went to Caracas to underscore her support for Chavez.

While President George W. Bush has vowed to stand by Uribe, no Latin American leader has visited the conservative, who receives billions of dollars in U.S. military aid to fight Marxist rebels and drug-traffickers.

NEGOTIATIONS

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in Brussels, urged negotiations to end the dispute.

"The United States stands strongly for the diplomatic resolution of these recent set of circumstances ... I do hope there will be a diplomatic outcome to this," Rice said.

Uribe will attend a summit in the Dominican Republic this week, where he hopes to persuade his fellow Latin American leaders he had to act against the rebel FARC himself because Ecuador allows the guerrillas to take refuge there.

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa will also attend the summit after first visiting another ally, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega -- a former guerrilla also blaming Uribe for the crisis.

The Pentagon said a military conflict is unlikely -- and international investors generally agree. Wall Street economists said they expect the crisis to blow over.

The Organization of American States, the Western Hemisphere's top diplomatic body, agreed on a resolution that said Colombia violated Ecuador's sovereignty. Correa, who cut diplomatic ties with Colombia over its raid, welcomed the accord but said it did not go far enough and vowed to press for a formal international condemnation.

Late on Wednesday, Chavez said the dispute will hurt the $6 billion in annual trade between Venezuela and Colombia. He also threatened to seize Colombian companies in Venezuela and said his government may sell off its investments in Colombia.

"We are not interested in Colombian investments," he said.

Colombia's attack, which killed more than 20 rebels, also hampered negotiations by France, Venezuela and Ecuador to swap dozens of hostages for guerrillas held in Colombian jails.

In Caracas, Fernandez met the mother of the rebels' most high-profile prisoner, French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt, and called for the captives' release.

"A significant way to lower the tensions in the region would be to see if we can really make progress on a humanitarian exchange," she told reporters.

 

[eaf-f16]

Even more political isolation for Colombia. Nicaragua just severed diplomatic ties. Economic isolation is likely to ensue.

But the fact that they are taking the diplomatic and economic isolation route shows that they'd rather not go to war and take that option instead.

Link

MANAGUA (Reuters) - Nicaragua broke off diplomatic ties with Colombia on Thursday, widening a Latin American crisis over a raid by Colombia on a rebel camp inside Ecuador last Saturday.

Venezuela and Ecuador have also cut relations with Colombia and poured troops to their borders with the U.S.-backed state in reaction to the cross-border raid, which prompted leftist allies to line up against Colombia.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, an ex-guerrilla whose country is in a territorial dispute with Colombia, said he was breaking off relations "in solidarity" with Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, who was visiting Managua.

Ortega's move strengthened the leftist alliance that has formed around Ecuador and Venezuela and left their neighbor Colombia increasingly isolated...

 

[rrrtx]

It is known - very strong ties between certain oil companies and Bush, and also many others in his administration. Besides, as i said, control over oil become even more important - f.e. control to whom Iraq may sell oil...

Who and which ones? I hear this a lot but seldom see any real supporting facts.

 

[mysterious]

Its common knowledge by now that all agreements that Saddam had with regards to oil provision to Russia, China, etc were rubbished by the United States once the Saddam regime fell. Now, all preferential treatment is for U.S' allies especially Israel; which obviously has benefitted the most.

Now coming back to the topic, Columbia is knee-deep in this one IMHO. Venezuela, Ecuador and now Nicaragua; looks like the United States' influence in the region is being squeezed out slowly but surely. Obviously the U.S should've known better before providing financial/equipment & intelligence as well as training to the Columbians that it was going to be no smooth sailing.

 

[Firehorse]

Even more political isolation for Colombia. Nicaragua just severed diplomatic ties. Economic isolation is likely to ensue.
But the fact that they are taking the diplomatic and economic isolation route shows that they'd rather not go to war and take that option instead.
"Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, an ex-guerrilla whose country is in a territorial dispute with Colombia,.."
Link

Noone neighboring Columbia needs war, but they also don't want to be invaded or raided again.
I'm puzzled- what "territorial dispute" can Nicaragua have with Colombia if they aren't border on each other?

While searching for Colombia map, I found this:

..the U.S. so-called anti-drug war in Colombia is actually a scheme to secure oil-rich regions of Colombia.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/Columbia/

Both sides of the conflict agree that there is no end in sight as the FARC are not strong enough to capture major cities and neither the Colombian military nor the irregular paramilitary groups are strong enough to regain the countryside controlled by the guerrillas.
http://www.plancolombia.org/

 

[mysterious]

Nicaragua has probably taken such steps because of the close ties it has with both Ecuador & Venezuela. These three states along with Cuba are causing headaches for Washington as they clearly have started to challenge the status quo in terms of influence since now the aforementioned 'four' have harvested quite cordial relations with Argentina, Chile and Brazil recently.

 

[kato]

I'm puzzled- what "territorial dispute" can Nicaragua have with Colombia if they aren't border on each other?

It's about some several archipelagos in the Carribean Sea about 100-150 miles from the Nicaraguan coast.

http://www.envio.org.ni/articulo/2802

There's a map somewhere in that link too. Whole thing dates back to the dissolution of the Central American Federation in 1838 pretty much, and a three-way dispute between Nicaragua, Colombia and the UK, with the US also involved since about 1869.

 

[rrrtx]

Noone neighboring Columbia needs war, but they also don't want to be invaded or raided again.
I'm puzzled- what "territorial dispute" can Nicaragua have with Colombia if they aren't border on each other?

While searching for Colombia map, I found this:

Ortega is just another regional Marxist who is trying to please Chavez. This is a meaningless move by Nicaragua's leader. I doubt he has much popular support from regular Nicaraguan's and he certainly has no capacity to take military action against Colombia. He's just trying to support his comparatively wealthy new friend.

 

[rrrtx]

Its common knowledge by now that all agreements that Saddam had with regards to oil provision to Russia, China, etc were rubbished by the United States once the Saddam regime fell. Now, all preferential treatment is for U.S' allies especially Israel; which obviously has benefitted the most.

Now coming back to the topic, Columbia is knee-deep in this one IMHO. Venezuela, Ecuador and now Nicaragua; looks like the United States' influence in the region is being squeezed out slowly but surely. Obviously the U.S should've known better before providing financial/equipment & intelligence as well as training to the Columbians that it was going to be no smooth sailing.

How could one reasonably expect those contracts to stay in place?

What does Israel have to do with any of this?

 

[mysterious]

Ortega is just another regional Marxist who is trying to please Chavez. This is a meaningless move by Nicaragua's leader.

On the contrary it is quite a meaningful move. It isolates Columbia further & when that happens, Washington's influence in the region takes a tumble.

I doubt he has much popular support from regular Nicaraguan's and he certainly has no capacity to take military action against Colombia. He's just trying to support his comparatively wealthy new friend.

If you haven't really noticed; moving of troops to border areas by both Ecuador & Venezuela is largely symbolic. Neither of the two states are interested in a military confrontation despite Chavez' outbursts. The one thing that Washington may learn from this whole episode is how effective 'diplomatic manouvering' can be as a weapon instead of using a military options.

Both Ecuador & Venezuela have sought to isolate Columbia & Nicaragua is simply following suit given its close relations with the two. They're already achieving their objectives diplomatically, I don't foresee any military action as a result.