Arms race: Greece & Turkey

[guest]

Thank you for the advice

I just wanted to thank you for sharing your knowledge and opinion on what I have posted. I adviced the person what kind of serious matter that must be and pictures were taken off his website. I saved some pictures and took screenshots of the website in case but I ought to simply mind my own business. And I apologize for getting off track of the original topic.

 

[Scourge]

No restraints on Greek fighter jet buys

By Karolos Grohmann

ATHENS, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Greece will rethink plans to buy 30 fighter jets and decide on the number according to its present defence needs, a senior defence ministry official said on Thursday.

Greece, which has the EU's top defence spending as a percentage of GDP, said last year it was postponing the purchase, which had attracted companies such as the Eurofighter consortium and Lockheed Martin Corp.

"All the options are open, and there are no restrictions to how many will be purchased," the senior defence ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

Greece has long-standing territorial and other disputes with neighbouring Turkey, and the two NATO members came to the brink of war over a deserted Aegean Sea island in 1996.

"The size and time of the purchase will be determined by the threat we feel," the official said. "We will buy as many as necessary."

Experts say that could now mean as many as 60.

Greece had initially planned to buy 60 Eurofighter warplanes but postponed the deal ahead of the Athens 2004 Olympics due to budget constraints.

The conservative government, which came to power in 2004, ditched that option a year later, buying instead 30 F-16 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin Corp in a deal valued at the time at 1.1 billion euros, and delaying a decision on the additional 30.

Last year, Defence Minister George Meimarakis said: "A committee will be set up to consider the purchase, as agreed, of 30 more fourth-generation aircraft."

But the ministry official said the number of planes that would be bought was not fixed.

"We are not obliged to stick with the old number," he said.

Among the frontrunners for the sale is the Eurofighter, built by a consortium including BAE systems, Airbus parent firm EADS and Alenia Aeronautica, a unit of Italy's Finmeccanica.

Lockheed's F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, French fighter Rafale made by Dassault Aviation, Swedish defence firm Saab's Gripen fighter, the Russian-built Sukhoi SU-35 and the F-18 Super Hornet made by Boeing are also considered strong contenders.

Greece has drawn up a 10-year defence procurement plan worth a total of about 27 billion euros between 2006 and 2015, the official said. Greece was spending about 3 percent of its GDP on defence each year, among the highest in NATO.

Experts say it is likely Greece will decide to purchase at least 40 warplanes to form two squadrons.

"For sure it will be 40 or more, because it would not make any sense buying fewer than two squadrons," defence expert Anastasios Gouriotis told Reuters.

Gouriotis, a former defence ministry spokesman and now the general manager of defence magazine Strategy, said the figure could be as high as 60 planes.

 

[fantasma]

The most profound scenario to me is that Greece will make a move to purchase 40 aircrafts (2 sqns) having all of them to operational until 2012-13..if i'm correct Turkey will have operational about 40 Litening II by 2015. Hence in terms of numerical balance by 2015 we will have an equillibrium to next generation aircrafts. Deliveries for T.A may continue until 2021 totalling a final number of 100 jets and maybe around 2014-15 Greece will respond for another 40 F-35 that will reinforce HAF until maybe 2020 -not counting possible priorities of L.M to deliever jets to other possible customers-

Only after 2017 the gap in numbers will increase rapidly and this will be the crucial period of an imbalalance of airpower over our only so called easternfront. My case is that in 2008 or in 2009 Greece will proceed giving an order of 40 jets -two sqns- of Typhoons - and the next decision just before the end of the 2011-2015 empae so there wont be a difficulty having tight and squeezing acqusitions so close creating budgetary, logistic problems, and therefore it might be better for HAF to "digest" these new acquisitions.

 

[beleg]

Deciding for a new aircraft type and having it operational for 2 sqs in 2012-13 doesn't seem realistic to me. Order some F-16s today and they will be delivered and operational in at least 3-4 years.

 

[fantasma]

hi my friend,
My scenario was relied on the hypothesis that MoD will follow its statements -not only form Mod also other govermental officials- saying about a year ago that the decision for the new aircraft will be made from the new goverment in 2008.

This statement was made based on the common sense during 2006 that we were going to general elections in spring 2008. We had elections a new goverment and according to the above statements my subjective personal opinion is that the final desicion might take place in 2008 or 2009..I guess that 4 yrs later at least will have a sqn operational is a reasonable timetable.

My opinion on the f-16 issue was or purchasing "0" and keep the bikikinia for next generation aircraft and modernization of M.2000 and previous blocks of F-16S and instead we did it again :lul . We bougth 30 planes 1.5 sqns with its negatives and not two fully sqns 40 airframes. Ordering 10 more F-16S would not be surprising to me if it takes place in the near future but it is not so likely.

 

[beleg]

Hi fanatsma... I am not really sure about that my friend .. Don't forget that decision making will be a long and hard one for EPA . After the decision is made and contract signed, you will have to wait for deliveries (unless it is Rafale ). After the platforms are delivered you still have to train both ground staff and the pilots which is another lengthy process.. Then again it can be possible for a squadron like you said.But personally i wouldn't bet on it either.

 

[BLACK SHIP]

The most profound scenario to me is that Greece will make a move to purchase 40 aircrafts (2 sqns) having all of them to operational until 2012-13..if i'm correct Turkey will have operational about 40 Litening II by 2015. Hence in terms of numerical balance by 2015 we will have an equillibrium to next generation aircrafts. Deliveries for T.A may continue until 2021 totalling a final number of 100 jets and maybe around 2014-15 Greece will respond for another 40 F-35 that will reinforce HAF until maybe 2020 -not counting possible priorities of L.M to deliever jets to other possible customers-

Only after 2017 the gap in numbers will increase rapidly and this will be the crucial period of an imbalalance of airpower over our only so called easternfront. My case is that in 2008 or in 2009 Greece will proceed giving an order of 40 jets -two sqns- of Typhoons - and the next decision just before the end of the 2011-2015 empae so there wont be a difficulty having tight and squeezing acqusitions so close creating budgetary, logistic problems, and therefore it might be better for HAF to "digest" these new acquisitions.

The most likely scenario is that 40 new aircraft will be ordered initially with some options to be exercised later.The prime candidate will be the EF2000 with some
used aircraft taken on lease until new build aircraft become available.
The JSF will be a candidate after the 2015.Selecting more than one type is a normal practise for HAF and the political implications to go first for an American aircraft on this is too hard for the Greek Government to ignore.
However small numbers of F16 could be bought to increase the numbers and make up for attrition.

 

[JackGr]

I doubt they will buy F-16s,cause they will try to buy sth similar to Turkey's inventory,so maybe a mixture of Eurofighters for start and then after some years F-35s.I agree with BLACK SHIP for the fact that Greece usuall buys more than 2 types.So in this way both Europe and USA will stay happy hehe.It's a kind of diplomacy.But I also think that does good.When you have F-16s against enemy's F-16s then you know every single detail about them so do they,but if you have a variety in aircrafts that others don't use,you may get an edge.

 

[fantasma]

The Aegean "theatre" will give us an answer to various discussions views about how stealthy will be the f-35 and how succesfully can be engaging in dogfights for fox 1 or 2 and the most crucial in BVR ..and from the other hand if the EF can have a far capable CAESAR radar than CAPTOR that uses for the time and if EF radars can detect F-35 near or further the maximum range of the BVR missiles carries the F-35. It seems that only in action we will find out if the airsuperiority role of the EF can be achieved against the F-35'S

as for our friend @BLACKSHIP

The most likely scenario is that 40 new aircraft will be ordered initially with some options to be exercised later

Greek economy cannot afford more than 40 EF. I guess that this will be the target. It will be a surprise for me if an option of 10-20 more will be excercised later

 

[beleg]

I remember i read Greece will make a tender, not directly buy EF. Am i correct? fantasma please add and correct my information about EPA where necessary. Currently Grece has F-16s (30-50-52) with 2 different engine producers M-2000s/2005s F-4Icarus that it plans to use until 2020. A7s are being replaced by new orders? (when is the last sq. going to be phased out?) if you add 2 more aircraft type i cant imagine the logistical mess it will create. Only option would be phasing out F-4s with F-35 like Turkey will do but then you will already have a big number of aged F-16/M2000 platforms in your hands (blk30s and early M2000s).

 

[fantasma]

Last April there was a decision NOT to withdraw the whole fleet of A-7 but keep a number of about 40 Corsairs operational till 2012.

The tender is just when EPA receives next gen. aircraft or a capable number of leased aircrafts will withdraw the A-7 and their role as bombardiers will be replaced by at least 2 sqns of F-16 BLOCK 52+ with conformal fuel tanks.
No news yet about any modernization plans of the remaining 20+ M.2000 and 30+ F-16s block 30. Thats no good news for EPA. A kind of modernization MUST take place the next yrs for the F-16s bl 30 and M-2000 cause if not they will be easily wiped out by F-16s CCIP and the sum of F-16s bl 30 and M-2000 is about 50 aircrafts. Respectible figure.

The air fleet in numbers until 2012 will be consisted by 90 F16s bl. 52+, 40 F16 bl. 50, 30+ F16s bl. 30, 25 Mirage 2000-5, 20+ Mirage 2000, 36 F-4 Icarus 2000, 37? A-7 Corsair..right after the arrivals of the new jets A-7 may finally rest hopefully in peace.

The minimum number of the airfleet as have been decided in the past is close to 300. By 2012-13 the whole fleet will reach about 280 airframes, except they surpise (don’t think so) us by planning to add 40+20 in our arsenal.

 

[beleg]

Thanks for the reply fantasma. I don't think Greece needs to modernize blk 30s. THK has kept these airframes outside the extensive CCIP project as well. The airframes are older , more stressed due to their primary role of training, their engines relatively weaker. So basically Greece needs to finish replacing 80 airframes by 2020s. THK on the other hand will have to replace its existing F-4 squadrons (~70 non modernized and ~50 modernized). We ordered 30 F16 Blk50+ aircraft and its highly possible that will receive ~100 F-35s. Probably the modernized F-4s of THK and EPA will be the last of their kind in service by 2020

 

[BLACK SHIP]

Greek economy cannot afford more than 40 EF. I guess that this will be the target. It will be a surprise for me if an option of 10-20 more will be exercised later

I don't quite see it that way regarding the economy.Anyway is all guesswork since there are only rumors circulating around . However the problem requires a solution since a lot of airframes are reaching the end of their operational life and
will need replacement shortly .If the ΠΑ wishes to maintain a fleet level around 300 front line fighters the requirement would be around 100-120 new aircraft in the next decade.

 

[fantasma]

I don't quite see it that way regarding the economy.Anyway is all guesswork since there are only rumors circulating around .

My guesswork is based on the data of the greek economy.
GDP official projection is for fiscal year 2008 223 billion euros
National public debt is 104% of GDP. We owe more than we produce.
The most important is the deficit that should be under 3% otherwise greek economy is under strict eye of the european committe with all negative impilcations. For the time this figure is 2.4% and in 2004 was almost 7%.
The last is the main reason for not accepting various of weapon systems. By the official acceptance of any weapon system automatically cost entries to the budget and deficit rises. Ending the percentage to GDP yearly for armaments according to Mod Meimarakis is to be reduced to 1% of GDP -it was 2% till 2003 i think-. The same time the goverment must double its economic contribution so retirement pensions can continue to roll with no problems to its payees

 

[BLACK SHIP]

My guesswork is based on the data of the greek economy.
GDP official projection is for fiscal year 2008 223 billion euros
National public debt is 104% of GDP. We owe more than we produce.
The most important is the deficit that should be under 3% otherwise greek economy is under strict eye of the european committe with all negative impilcations. For the time this figure is 2.4% and in 2004 was almost 7%.
The last is the main reason for not accepting various of weapon systems. By the official acceptance of any weapon system automatically cost entries to the budget and deficit rises. Ending the percentage to GDP yearly for armaments according to Mod Meimarakis is to be reduced to 1% of GDP -it was 2% till 2003 i think-. The same time the goverment must double its economic contribution so retirement pensions can continue to roll with no problems to its payees

My apologies I wasn't clear on that.The "guesswork" was a reference to the Fighter program number's.One issue is clear though .If HAF has to maintain a credible deterrence force the above mentioned spending limits are inadequate to say the least . Sooner or later they will find out and I sincerely hope that will be sooner.

 

[fantasma]

.If HAF has to maintain a credible deterrence force the above mentioned spending limits are inadequate to say the least . Sooner or later they will find out and I sincerely hope that will be sooner.

I agree 100% with your point but the last yrs in Greece amongst politicians there is a tendency to reduce armament expenditures in order to direct money to other sectors to reduce deficit and fulfill their pre-election promises. There is a tender to consider armament expenditures as a waste..they dont understand that a credible detterence force in that particular geographical place must be sustained by any cost and by that detterence force you help your foreign policy and stabilizing peace in your neighbourhood. As far as you are strong enough to have a detterence force peace is certain when this balance is disturbed war is closer. If you want peace prepare for war..this truth have been forgotten from our politicians and maybe sometime we pay it hard.

 

[wyoming cowboy]

I agree 100% with your point but the last yrs in Greece amongst politicians there is a tendency to reduce armament expenditures in order to direct money to other sectors to reduce deficit and fulfill their pre-election promises. There is a tender to consider armament expenditures as a waste..they dont understand that a credible detterence force in that particular geographical place must be sustained by any cost and by that detterence force you help your foreign policy and stabilizing peace in your neighbourhood. As far as you are strong enough to have a detterence force peace is certain when this balance is disturbed war is closer. If you want peace prepare for war..this truth have been forgotten from our politicians and maybe sometime we pay it hard.

Greece has to remember that in the Aegean it has a tactical geographic advantage all those aegean islands could be looked at as unsinkable air craft carriers which makes the heartland of turkey easier to penetrate also the turkish navy could be bogged in forever with artillery fire from these islands and a strong air defense from the Greeks...

 

[JackGr]

Greece has to remember that in the Aegean it has a tactical geographic advantage all those aegean islands could be looked at as unsinkable air craft carriers which makes the heartland of turkey easier to penetrate also the turkish navy could be bogged in forever with artillery fire from these islands and a strong air defense from the Greeks...

Not all the islands can be used.There would be a huge logistical cost and furthermore,many airbases means more possibilities for the enemy to obtain one of them and use it against us.I think they serve better as anti-ship platforms with Exocet MM40 missiles etc...And something more,as far as I know Greece has a defensive policy,that means that everything is organised in order to that,so the primary target is defense not penetration in enemy territory.I agree with you that having these islands is a tactical advantage.

 

[beleg]

Greece has to remember that in the Aegean it has a tactical geographic advantage all those aegean islands could be looked at as unsinkable air craft carriers which makes the heartland of turkey easier to penetrate also the turkish navy could be bogged in forever with artillery fire from these islands and a strong air defense from the Greeks...

An aircraft carrier on which a plane can't land due to enemy artillery fire The islands are both an advantage and a disadvantage for the Greeks. With the addition of MESA AEW&CC aircraft TSK will be able to see whats behind and around those islands and direct all kinds of fire to the hot zones from land air and naval assets. With the recent gas pipeline opened up, war is even a more remote possibility between Greece and Turkey..

 

[angelo]

Some recent info about the Greek military.

About 75 leopard 2A6 have been received and are in service.

Two super puma have been purchased.

The dutch are offering greece [very good price} the pzh2000.

Rheinmetall is proposing a new deal to Greece for Marder IA3 a lease

164 marders for 5 years for 50 millions Euros.