I'd like to ask a few questions to you.
I think we agree on the US motivation for this arms package. But I do wonder a little about the Saudi motivation. I have previously argued that there is a rivalry or antagonism - whatever you prefer - between Iran & SA.
That's a leading question, but in the end,
I/we do agree.
IMO, the meeting that Ahmadinejad had in Syria with Assad and Nasrallah was a sign that Iran isn't so sure it has such a tight handle on things (i.e. Ahmadinejad is trying to hang on).
Iran needs Syria in order to form the "Crescent" that many believe is one of Iran's initial strategic objectives in the region.
Assad isn't very popular in his neighborhood let alone at home and he has many people asking, "what have you done for me/us lately" (from all that I've read). IMO, the large US offer isn't only directed as a show of support to the Saudis. Going "all in," and providing the entire ME with the "blatant perception/reality" that it's offering some big gifts to everyone West of Iran, except for Syria, is a tactic to isolate Assad and make him think about the direction in which his long term interests lay.
Under the circumstances, I don't think a Presidential visit by Ahmadinejad and sudden appearance by Nasrallah, to speak with Assad was some pre-planed military micromanaging session. Rather, it's my opinion that the entire meeting was a show of the pressure that is being applied to all three actors. Assad is essentially the only one who can fracture away (breaking the link) and survive--maybe with a nice aid package too.
If that happens, I think the implications for Iran's President and Lebanon become more clear... I'll leave this here for debate (I'm tired
)
Do the Saudi really themselves think that they need these arms; what is their motivation?
As it goes in the ME: "Money, Power, Respect," and/or all that is implicit in winning the "Rivalry" that was noted.
Will they accept or turn it down?
If you're asking for the exact odds, you need to find a bookie for that answer? However, I don't gamble because at the end of the night, it always seems like the
House ends up taking all the chips.
We (US) obviously have an interest in maintaining our status as the biggest "Whale," what Casino would turn down a customer like us?
-GD, this time "Take it easy... on me":cheers