USA Planning 20 Billion $ Arms Sale to Saudi Arabia

[eaf-f16]

The sanctions that are in place have taken a toll on Iran and he doesn't seem to have very much domestic (popular) support; as the pressure has increased his support will decline within Iran (Our thinking... IMO). I believe this is our final attempt to "push" him over the edge. Perhaps, it happens from within or maybe an offer that Assad "can't refuse" is made (he has similar pressure already) will pull Syria away from Ahmadinejad.

The sanctions on Iran are no where near as effective as the sanctions they had on Saddam's Iraq so I don't think he would be unpopular for that reason. Ahmedinejad seems to be very popular within the Arab world (from what I can see) but I don't know about the Iranian public. If you can remmember the Iranians rallying outside the British embassy in Tehran (I actually think some one let off a bomb but no one got hurt) when they captured the British sailors, the protestors were saying that the Brits shouldn't be returned and that Iran should be continue to be defaint to the west. I remmember one man from the protestors saying Ahmedinejad was the only remaining "hero" of the Muslim world. I don't think the sanctions on Iran are that evasive and I don't think the public notices the sanctions' effects on their lives (from what I see). So far Russia has saved Iran from more effective sanctions. If he's unpopular within the Iranian public it would stem from the public's fear of becoming a second Iraq.

I also think westeren media tries to make him look more unpopular than he is. IMO.

 

[Izzy1]

If he's unpopular within the Iranian public it would stem from the public's fear of becoming a second Iraq.

I'm not too sure on that. Ahmadinejad's Government promised a lot upon gaining power and yet have delivered little. Most importantly, the economy is in dire straights thanks to Government mismanagement. Iran should be booming along with the rest of the Gulf at the moment thanks to high oil prices. However, this does not seem to be the case...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6243644.stm

Nationlistic posturing and blaiming America and the west for all of Iran's wows will not succeed forever. Without some quick action to reverse this economic downtrend, I truly believe Ahmadinejad's days are numbered. The question is however, what type of Government will we get next in Tehran? Pragmatic reformist or more of the same??

The US flooding the Gulf with further weapons may only bring on more of the latter...

 

[metro]

I'm not too sure on that. Ahmadinejad's Government promised a lot upon gaining power and yet have delivered little. Most importantly, the economy is in dire straights thanks to Government mismanagement. Iran should be booming along with the rest of the Gulf at the moment thanks to high oil prices. However, this does not seem to be the case...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6243644.stm

Nationlistic posturing and blaiming America and the west for all of Iran's wows will not succeed forever. Without some quick action to reverse this economic downtrend, I truly believe Ahmadinejad's days are numbered. The question is however, what type of Government will we get next in Tehran? Pragmatic reformist or more of the same??

The US flooding the Gulf with further weapons may only bring on more of the latter...

I truly believe Ahmadinejad's days are numbered. The question is however, what type of Government will we get next in Tehran? Pragmatic reformist or more of the same??

I share the same sentiment and questions!

-Q: Are there two Rafsanjani's (Brothers)? "One"(?) was an ex-President, right?


Here's a poll that is recent and has interesting findings. A lot of politicians/media/etc... have quoted this poll, but everyone has to decide on their own as to its veracity. IMO, with other bits of info that comes out of Iran (e.g. the bbc article), I'm lead to believe that all is not so great in Iran.

Direct link to entire poll:

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT Iran Survey Report.pdf

Link to Site:
http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/articlenav.php?id=5

 

[eaf-f16]

I share the same sentiment and questions!

-Q: Are there two Rafsanjani's (Brothers)? "One"(?) was an ex-President, right?


Here's a poll that is recent and has interesting findings. A lot of politicians/media/etc... have quoted this poll, but everyone has to decide on their own as to its veracity. IMO, with other bits of info that comes out of Iran (e.g. the bbc article), I'm lead to believe that all is not so great in Iran.

Direct link to entire poll:

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT Iran Survey Report.pdf

Link to Site:
http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/articlenav.php?id=5

That says alot. I'm not surprised that the most Iranians don't want nuclear weapons the Iranian gov't itself says it dosen't want them (but of course no one knows for sure). I don't think the arms deal is going to push Iran further to nukes. The arms deals with Egypt and Israel are routine and it's not surprising that the Gulf is on yet another defense shopping spree. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is anything abnormal about the current arms deals between the US and the ME countries. Although it may have increased for the Gulf countries and that could stem from rising oil revenues but I'm not sure (Iran probably is one of the reasons).

 

[metro]

That says alot. I'm not surprised that the most Iranians don't want nuclear weapons the Iranian gov't itself says it dosen't want them (but of course no one knows for sure). I don't think the arms deal is going to push Iran further to nukes. The arms deals with Egypt and Israel are routine and it's not surprising that the Gulf is on yet another defense shopping spree. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is anything abnormal about the current arms deals between the US and the ME countries. Although it may have increased for the Gulf countries and that could stem from rising oil revenues but I'm not sure (Iran probably is one of the reasons).

I pretty much agree with everything you said.
I think the arms deal as I said before (I apologize for repeating myself) is designed to get a lot of hype by announcing everything together--numbers look large (marketing)! It puts further pressure on Ahmadinjad--whose country sees the Arab's and Israeli's "are getting whatever American/Western aid/weapons they want." I don't think the average Iranian will see this as anything but an increased threat--UN sanctions are never perfect but IMO they have hurt Iran internally far more than Tehran would like to be public. I don't think Iran will be able to "afford keeping its image and friends" and maintain domestic stability, while pursuing a Nuclear Program.

Syria, and Assad are also under tremendous pressure. Not only economically but there is the Harrari trial in the UN (so they say). Aid and "Pardons" in return for Syria severing ties with Iran and those they directly/indirectly support groups in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as cutting off the influx of people into Iraq. Syria could have a lot to gain.

I agree that there isn't anything new with the US selling arms to the ME or Gulf, they always have large shopping lists (there are some items on the list that I'm not sure of their purpose, but if it's on the menu, why not). I guess as in any industry, "If I don't sell them what they want, somebody else will..."
With the price of oil, it makes arms a lot more affordable. In terms of Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, I agree, same as before (JMO).

As I've said before, I really don't see any military conflict between Egypt, Israel, Jordan, or the Gulf States. But, Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, are facing the issue of Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has to be ready for anything from the north as well. Egypt and Israel have better things to do than kill each other, it just isn't logical. Jordan and Israel have good relations... I think during the events in 1970-71 when Syria started to go after Jordan, Israel massed tanks on the Syrian boarder and and sent planes to "buzz" Damascus. King Hussein later thanked/helped Israel a couple years later. So, again, I think the three countries have mutual interests which are intertwined with those of the Gulf States.

One question I have--don't know if you can answer--but isn't the al-aqsa Mosque only where Sunni's Pray?
I don't get Iran's obsession with Jerusalem when we here Ahmadinejad talking about "getting rid of Israel." I don't think Jerusalem would be saved if thats the intention? Just a question I had regarding the "logic."

JMHO
Pece

 

[cheetah]

Syria, and Assad are also under tremendous pressure. Not only economically but there is the Harrari trial in the UN (so they say). Aid and "Pardons" in return for Syria severing ties with Iran and those they directly/indirectly support groups in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as cutting off the influx of people into Iraq. Syria could have a lot to gain.

**TEXT DELETED**

Read the rules, respect other nations/people and add constructive views. One of your earlier threads here is flaming and so was this.

2nd and Last Warning.

Mod edit: You've been warned twice. Obviously you don't want to stay?

Fair enough.

AD

 

[eaf-f16]

One question I have--don't know if you can answer--but isn't the al-aqsa Mosque only where Sunni's Pray?
I don't get Iran's obsession with Jerusalem when we here Ahmadinejad talking about "getting rid of Israel." I don't think Jerusalem would be saved if thats the intention? Just a question I had regarding the "logic."

JMHO
Pece

No, I think both Shia'a and Sunni go there (but it would be hard to find Shia'a as most Palestinians are Sunni). I know that Shia'a go to the two Mosques in Saudi Arabia. The real conflict between Sunni and Shia'a started when US invaded Iraq. Before that Sunni Muslims (at least in Egypt) never saw a Shia'a Muslim as traitor or non-believer. I was taught growing up that Muslims are all the same.

There isn't just an Iranian obsession about Juruslem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. It's a widespread Muslim obsession (even in Malaysia, Indonesia and pretty much where ever you find Islam dominent). But I think Iran's obsession with it is that they just want to find a cause that strikes a chord with the whole of the Arab and Muslim world to gain leadership and no better cause than the "Liberation of the Holy Land".

 

[radiosilence]

I wonder if any of the so called moderate allies can overtly ally themselves with Israel in a war againt Iran and survive at home. Perhaps someone like Izzy who are in region can give some insights on that.

 

[eaf-f16]

I wonder if any of the so called moderate allies can overtly ally themselves with Israel in a war againt Iran and survive at home. Perhaps someone like Izzy who are in region can give some insights on that.

Even moderate Arab leaders have to say something bad about Israel and the US once in a while to keep the image of being their "puppets" away from them and even then. Overtly allying with Israel (as you put it) against another Muslim country is political suicide. You'd have a much better chance allying with the US even if militarly, IMO.

 

[metro]

No, I think both Shia'a and Sunni go there (but it would be hard to find Shia'a as most Palestinians are Sunni). I know that Shia'a go to the two Mosques in Saudi Arabia. The real conflict between Sunni and Shia'a started when US invaded Iraq. Before that Sunni Muslims (at least in Egypt) never saw a Shia'a Muslim as traitor or non-believer. I was taught growing up that Muslims are all the same.

Thanks for the reply!
I was under the impression that pretty much only Sunni Muslims Prayed at the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Perhaps because I see the all the "attacks on either a Sunni or Shia'a Mosque," in Iraq. Your point about the demographics does make sense. Palestinians are the people going to pray there, thus a very strong majority of those will be Sunni. I still (kind of) wonder though, if there is a slightly different interpretation--in whatever religion--I'd think that depending on the individual's beliefs, the person would tend to go to a Mosque, Church, Temple, etc... which fits the person's beliefs the best.:unknown
Then again, your point about all Muslims going to SA.

There isn't just an Iranian obsession about Juruslem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. It's a widespread Muslim obsession (even in Malaysia, Indonesia and pretty much where ever you find Islam dominent). But I think Iran's obsession with it is that they just want to find a cause that strikes a chord with the whole of the Arab and Muslim world to gain leadership and no better cause than the "Liberation of the Holy Land".

Sorry, I meant by asking why an "Iranian Obsession with Jerusalem"--I was basing it on the premise that the Al-Aqsa Mosque was 'Sunni'--if there was really no Shia'a attachment to the Mosque?

It's strange too, because as you point out, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, etc, are Muslim Countries and despite what is said, they all buy from Israel (UAV's and/or more).** I think your exactly right in that leaders throughout the ME know what can get the passion of the crowed. IMO, if one looks at Israel, there's a PM who is polling at, Plus or Minus Zero (margin of error +-3), in his approval ratings, and he's managed to figure out how to hold his seat in power.
Thanks for the info EAF!
Peace

**see correction in post below.
(Thanks swerve & congrats on the promo)

 

[swerve]

...
It's strange too, because as you point out, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, etc, are Muslim Countries and despite what is said, they all buy from Israel (UAV's and/or more). ...

Thailand & Singapore are not Muslim. Thailand is mainly Buddhist (>90%), with a small Muslim minority in the far south. Singapore has an assortment of religions among which Buddhism is the main one. Maybe 15% Muslim.

Malaysia has a Muslim majority, but about 40% of the population follow other religions, & like Indonesia (the only one of the four which is overwhelmingly Muslim), is not "Muslim" in the sense that Pakistan or Iran or Saudi Arabia are. Islam is the main but not the official religion in both countries.

 

[eaf-f16]

Thanks for the reply!
I was under the impression that pretty much only Sunni Muslims Prayed at the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Perhaps because I see the all the "attacks on either a Sunni or Shia'a Mosque," in Iraq. Your point about the demographics does make sense. Palestinians are the people going to pray there, thus a very strong majority of those will be Sunni. I still (kind of) wonder though, if there is a slightly different interpretation--in whatever religion--I'd think that depending on the individual's beliefs, the person would tend to go to a Mosque, Church, Temple, etc... which fits the person's beliefs the best.:unknown
Then again, your point about all Muslims going to SA.


Sorry, I meant by asking why an "Iranian Obsession with Jerusalem"--I was basing it on the premise that the Al-Aqsa Mosque was 'Sunni'--if there was really no Shia'a attachment to the Mosque?

It's strange too, because as you point out, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, etc, are Muslim Countries and despite what is said, they all buy from Israel (UAV's and/or more).** I think your exactly right in that leaders throughout the ME know what can get the passion of the crowed. IMO, if one looks at Israel, there's a PM who is polling at, Plus or Minus Zero (margin of error +-3), in his approval ratings, and he's managed to figure out how to hold his seat in power.
Thanks for the info EAF!
Peace

**see correction in post below.
(Thanks swerve & congrats on the promo)

I see your point, but I meant to say the public. I have had a few Malaysian friends voice their opinions about Israel and it's not favourable to say the least. But I think, correct me if I'm wrong, Malaysia and Indonesia are more secular than the other Muslim countries (sort of how Turkey is). I think Malaysia was seeking Israeli avionics for it's Su-30 but couldn't get them. I can't make comprehnsive assesment about the Malaysian and Indonesian public perception about Israel I have never been to those countries but I can say from whom I met that they didn't like Israel (or the US for that matter). I have never talked to an Indonesian about those kinds of issues though.

 

[Izzy1]

I wonder if any of the so called moderate allies can overtly ally themselves with Israel in a war againt Iran and survive at home. Perhaps someone like Izzy who are in region can give some insights on that.

Overtly would be the problem; openly siding with Israel against Iran would be political suicide, certainly for the House of Saud and Bahrain's Al-Khalifa ruling family. The conservative influence here in the Kingdom is still way too strong. It would also provide Al Qaeda and other "deviant" elements (as they are called here) a recruitment and propaganda victory like no other.

I would however, never rule out more subtle forms of co-operation between the moderate Arab nations and Israel - certainly with the US playing a middle-man role.

 

[metro]

I see your point, but I meant to say the public. I have had a few Malaysian friends voice their opinions about Israel and it's not favourable to say the least. But I think, correct me if I'm wrong, Malaysia and Indonesia are more secular than the other Muslim countries (sort of how Turkey is). I think Malaysia was seeking Israeli avionics for it's Su-30 but couldn't get them. I can't make comprehnsive assesment about the Malaysian and Indonesian public perception about Israel I have never been to those countries but I can say from whom I met that they didn't like Israel (or the US for that matter). I have never talked to an Indonesian about those kinds of issues though.

Yeah, as swerve pointed out, Malaysia is definitely more of secular State, as is Indonesia. I don't know what I was thinking (I obviously wasn't), but I was in those 2 countries as well as the 2 others i mentioned almost 10yrs ago. Except for an almost bad run in with a scorpion in Malaysia, I enjoyed all four countries and the people there. As I said, it was a while back and I didn't notice any "anti-american" feelings by the locals. Today, with our popularity being so high around the world , things may have changed.

As for Israel, I don't know personally. I just never brought it up in conversation ... but, 2 years ago, a female cousin who had just graduated from HS in Israel, spent the summer b4 entering the IDF backpacking throughout S.E. Asia (if I told you one country she visited, you wouldn't believe me), but she said she loved everywhere she went and was treated very well by everyone. There are apparently many Israelis who travel throughout that area for the same kind of summer trip (maybe if any Israelis read this they can confirm).

If I remember correctly, Israel did seek the "okay" to upgrade Malaysia's aircraft, but "Higher Powers" vetoed that idea. I do believe that they received UAVs from Israel though.

 

[eaf-f16]

Yeah, as swerve pointed out, Malaysia is definitely more of secular State, as is Indonesia. I don't know what I was thinking (I obviously wasn't), but I was in those 2 countries as well as the 2 others i mentioned almost 10yrs ago. Except for an almost bad run in with a scorpion in Malaysia, I enjoyed all four countries and the people there. As I said, it was a while back and I didn't notice any "anti-american" feelings by the locals. Today, with our popularity being so high around the world , things may have changed.

As for Israel, I don't know personally. I just never brought it up in conversation ... but, 2 years ago, a female cousin who had just graduated from HS in Israel, spent the summer b4 entering the IDF backpacking throughout S.E. Asia (if I told you one country she visited, you wouldn't believe me), but she said she loved everywhere she went and was treated very well by everyone. There are apparently many Israelis who travel throughout that area for the same kind of summer trip (maybe if any Israelis read this they can confirm).

If I remember correctly, Israel did seek the "okay" to upgrade Malaysia's aircraft, but "Higher Powers" vetoed that idea. I do believe that they received UAVs from Israel though.

The Americans (or any white people even Israelis) that come here get treated well and the people here are usually very nice to them but it doesn't mean America's policies are well supported here.

Can you tell me which country your cousin visited, please?

 

[Scorpius]

I know secular Arabs(actually Arab Americans of Syria-Palestinian or of mixed Arab descent ) who have western boy/girl friends,follow western culture and still hate Israel and want it to be removed.The conflict is much more about land than religion.
As Palestinians are pre-dominantly Muslim they have the sympathy and support from the Muslim world and also because of the fact one of Islam's historical and revered sites are in Israel's occupation.

shall we get back on topic?
what will the Saudis do with the Tornadoes?seems like a waste to get rid of them to me.

 

[cheetah]

yes the KSA conventional defense needs are huge because not all surrounding nations are peaceful. it is still at a state of war with israel and its relation with Iran is terrible and can turn into war in the future while the boarders with Iraq and Yemen are dangerous and been used to smuggle Al Qaida members , explosives , drugs , weapons and ammunition

Oh man this is classic.

just for your information even the Americans have openly admitted that all terrorist coming to Iraq are of Saudi descend all suicide bombers are Saudi.
but i guess you are right AL-qaieda run by Saudis financed by Saudis is a threat to Saudisnfloorl:

 

[SaudiArabian]

Oh man this is classic.

just for your information even the Americans have openly admitted that all terrorist coming to Iraq are of Saudi descend all suicide bombers are Saudi.

understand first and don't be sarcastic please

they clarrified later that they didn't cross the Saudi-Iraqi boarders(it is impossible , watch this video). Saudis in Iraq get into it through the Syrian boarders because they go there as tourists as many many Saudis do and then they go to the east where they simpley pass the boarders into Al Anbar province

as for Afghanistan , i'm well aware of the road to it. its by travelling to Syria as tourists then to Iran as tourists too then pass to the Afghani boarders

 

[SaudiArabian]

what will the Saudis do with the Tornadoes?seems like a waste to get rid of them to me.

http://defensenews.com/story.php?F=2095874&C=europe

 

[eaf-f16]

I agree that Saudi doesn't need most of the stuff it's buying. It has never been in a real war (excluding the Gulf war). Saudi doesn't have huge security requirements as SaudiArabian put it they already exceed Iran militarily and Israel doesn't care about what Saudi does or says unless it's making peace with Israel. The Gulf country with biggest defense requirements I would have to say is the UAE.