Why ASEAN matters - in the era of great power competition

[Sandhi Yudha]

US President Joe Biden opened a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders with a promise to spend US$150 million on their infrastructure, security, pandemic preparedness and other efforts aimed at countering the influence of rival China.

While Russia's invasion of Ukraine is on the agenda, and the US recently decided to support Ukraine with a value of $40 billion, the Biden's administration hopes this promise of $150 million devided over 10 countries, will show the ASEAN- countries that Washington remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and the long-term challenge of China, which it views at the country's main competitor.

But last year in November alone, China pledged US$1.5 billion in development assistance to ASEAN countries over three years to fight COVID-19 and fuel economic recovery.

With China in focus, Biden makes US$150 million commitment to ASEAN leaders

WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden opened a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders with a promise to spend US$150 million on their infrastructure, security, pandemic preparedness and other efforts aimed at countering the influence of rival China. On Thursday (May 12), Biden started a

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[STURM]

But last year in November alone, China pledged US$1.5 billion in development assistance to ASEAN countries over three years to fight COVID-19 and fuel economic recovery.

That's great but I don't think ASEAN was even expecting the U.S. to match Chinse aid dollar for dollar or renminbi.

What they're looking for is assurance that the U.S. is committed to the region and other things.

 

[koxinga]

The following video is from the IISS meeting held in Singapore over the last few days.

I would draw your attention to Pak Prabowo's speech at the 1 hour mark; it is a fairly clear explanation of the ASEAN way that avoids statements such as "country X is a threat to regional peace and stability". The other point to note later on is his views on China, which is to view it from a historical context of China being a historical superpower returning to its rightful place.

 

[STURM]

A Q and A session with Prabowo. He raises some interesting points. Asians tend to have their own way of doing things; whether it ultimately works or not is off course an issue but the point is things are done slightly different in the Asia Pacific. His comments about China and Indonesia's position on the Ukraine are indicative of the challenges many non aligned countries regional face; the need to weight in their long term core interests whilst also maintaining good relations with the West, China and Russia; all of which will at some point expect and demand different things from regional countries - for regional countries taking sides is not an option unless placed in a position which leaves little or no room for alternatives.

Indonesia wants to be ‘common bridge’ between US, China: Subianto

At Shangri-La Dialogue, Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto says he is confident the leaders of the US and China will be wise.

www.aljazeera.com

''The United States has helped us many times, in our critical moments. But China has also helped us. China has also defended us and China is now a very close partner with Indonesia. And actually, China has always been the leading civilization in Asia. Many of our sultans, kings, our princes in those days, they would marry princesses from China. We have hundreds of years of relationship.''

''Historically, geopolitically, there are always two versions to a story. Indonesia, as you know we voted with the many western countries in opposing the invasion of Ukraine — that’s our position on the invasion. But once again, I would like to say that Russia has been a very good friend to Indonesia all these years. We have good relations with Russia, they helped us also when we were having difficulties and as I mentioned, a friend in need is a friend indeed. Never forget friends who helped you. That’s our position.''

Like others in the region Indonesia has had a long and complex relationship with China. At one point the Partai Komunis Indonesia was one of the largest in the country. It was Chinese supported and was close to launching a coup. After the overthrow of Sukarno relations between Indonesia an China went downhill for many years. Today China again occupies a major place in Indonesia's strategic calculus and Indonesia like its neighbours has to thread very carefully.

 

[ngatimozart]

@STURM I think that is a common problem when westerners are dealing with non western cultures. It's still quite evident in NZ when the majority Pakeha / Palagi (white Anglo Saxon) population with western cultural values deals with Maori and other Polynesian cultures. The Polynesian cultures are quite different with different cultural values from the Pakeha / Palagi culture including land "ownership", governance, family structure, legal systems. dispute resolution etc. At least here the conversation has started and gained some traction, whereas in Australia they have just started the conversation about having the conversation and that's a good start. In the US that won't happen and in Canada they're thinking about it. The French won't have a bar of it at all. It's la belle France or nothing with no inbetween. The Kanaks and indigenous Tahitians don't get a real choice. Edward Said called it Orientalism where westerners forced non western cultures into constructs of their own idealisation of oriental lives.

 

[STURM]

I think that is a common problem when westerners are dealing with non western cultures.

I feel it's a two way street; both sides needs some level of mutual understanding on how to deal with each other and what makes the other side tick.

As it stands just like how Chinese officials have a much better understanding of their Western counterparts [quite a bit of mid level Chinese officials received their education in the West or spent time in the West and the all speak English] ; the same applies to officials from various Asian countries who understand their Western counterparts quite well.

Ultimately how effective various Western countries are in dealing with Asian countries also varies; take Malaysia as an example. The Australians I believe have far more influence and level of understanding with the Malaysians compared to any other western country. To be expected I suppose given that Australia has long played a major role in the country. Following the British 1971 East of Suez withdrawal it was Australia which became Malaysia's main defence partner and years before that it took over the role; from the Royal Navy; of mentoring the newly formed Royal Malaysian Navy.

 

[koxinga]

I feel it's a two way street; both sides needs some level of mutual understanding on how to deal with each other and what makes the other side tick.

The first step is to understand that their point of view represents just a section of humanity and largely the anglosphere.

The second part is accepting that views from the other part of humanity (e.g Indonesia, Singapore) actually matter instead of insinuating they hold such views because their societies / governments are "authoritian". The Western media largely under reported speeches from regional countries and focused the headlines on what China said and what the US said, in very simplified terms.

Jaishankar (FM, India) has articulated similar positions and views but it goes largely unreported (ignored).

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|""We should demand not just that Pedra Branca, or Pulau Batu Puteh, be given back to us, we should also demand Singapore as well as the Riau Islands, as they are Tanah Melayu (Malay land)," he added to applause from the audience."|

Ex-PM Mahathir says Malaysia should claim Singapore and Riau Islands

He said that Singapore was once owned by Johor and the state of Johor should claim that Singapore be returned to it and to Malaysia. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

It is a good point that he is not prime-minister anymore. At an age of 96, people can start to mix up reality with fiction and fantasy and can start to tell weird things.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Funny how he forgot to ask while he was prime minister. I mean he had plenty of opportunity to, he spent what 25 years as PM, and political career of what, 75 years? Its only now, that he left that he knows what Malaysia should do? Does he forget they tried merging singapore and Malaysia, and it didn't go well? 1965? Wasn't he one of the ones who unanimously voted Singapore out of Malaysia?

If they aren't careful they won't be any Malay lands and waters anymore or lack the ability to assert sovereignty over them.

This small mindedness will lead to destruction.

 

[koxinga]

The audience was a bunch of right wing nativists aka Ketuanan Melayu types and he was saying what they want to listen.

The running joke is this 96 year old is so salty that the salt is preserving him. Guy doesn't know how to give it a rest.

 

[STURM]

It's related to internal political happenings [at the Federal level and Johore] and are aimed at certain political figures. The next general election actions has to be held by next year and some [not him] are wishing for it be be held earlier. As for his audience I wouldn't jump and say they were "Ketuanan Melayu types" but rather people who were placed there or those who happened to already be supporters.

He can't "give it a rest" because he still has unfinished business. I'm sure he would like to but he can't. As it stands the political situation in Malaysia is quite dynamic as in things are fluid with all players [like politicians elsewhere] putting their interests first. As it stands the main concern of the average Malaysian is the economy, rising prices, etc.

 

[OPSSG]

It's related to internal political happenings [at the Federal level and Johore] and are aimed at certain political figures…

1. Singapore and Johor have come to a modus vivendi on many points; in fact the relations between the two is better than that of the Federal Government. In the 2018 to 2019 round of disputes between Singapore and Malaysia — the Royal family in Johor was against Dr M’s failed scheme, to arm twist Singapore into an unwise compromise.

​

(a) “Johor contributed almost RM13 billion annually in federal revenue, but what it actually received was starkly disproportionate,” Sultan Ibrahim said during the opening of the First Session of the 15th Johor Legislative Assembly at Kota Iskandar. He also accused the Malaysian federal government of “sidelining” the state as he opened the first session of the 15th Johor State Legislative Assembly.​

​

(b) Singapore's exit from Malaysia in 1965 "stands as a curious counterpoint to the idea that the Federation of Malaysia is indissoluble," said Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar. The Sultan of Johor warned that if the federal govt continued in this manner, Johoreans may call for secession — it’s just used as a tool for the Sultan to get a better deal with the Federal Govt.​

2. Sultan Ibrahim listed a "litany of unfulfilled promises” that the federal government of Malaysia has supposedly left outstanding. According to a copy of his remarks shared on his official Facebook page, the Sultan specifically cited the need to properly maintain federal government facilities and services, such as the Hospital Sultanah Aminah, Hospital Sultan Ismail, and the Sultan Iskandar Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) Complex.

3. This follows from the Johor crown prince Tunku Ismail Ibrahim’s Oct 2015 remarks about the state’s right to secede from Malaysia. “Because it is silent in the Federal Constitution, unlike in Sabah where it specifically mentions in the Malaysia Agmt that it cannot secede,” he said.

 

[STURM]

The Sultan of Johor warned that if the federal govt continued in this manner, Johoreans may call for secession.

The key question is whether it's Johoreans or him that might call for it and what the majority of Johoreans will feel about it. Ultimately its a threat intended for a political response; as long as he gets what he wants things will eventually quieten down.

 

[OPSSG]

The key question is whether it's Johoreans or him that might call for it and what the majority of Johoreans will feel about it.

4. I am pretty sure the Sultan does not speak for all Johoreans — but he does have a right to raise and keep an army under the terms of the Federation — that is an unique position. As Raja Petra wrote:

​

“The Johor palace has always had what we could probably call ‘special powers’, for want of a better term, compared to the other 8 Malaysian royal households. Even Singapore ‘closes one eye’ to the antics of the Johor royalty rather than risk rubbing them the wrong way – which is unique for Singapore which takes no sh*t from anyone (other than just the Johor royalty).​

​

…the Johor palace has always had a mind of its own. It will do what it wants to do whether the law or the Constitution allows it to or not. A few words written on a piece of paper is not going to decide what the Johor palace or the Johor royal family can or cannot do.”​

5. Raised in 1886, the Royal Johor Military Force (or Askar Timbalan Setia Johor) is Malaysia’s oldest active military unit still in operation and the only military in the Federation that is maintained by a state.

 

[STURM]

The Johore Military Force [JMF]. It's main role is to protect members of the royal family. It has a close connection with Gerak Khas for which the Sultan is the honoury Colonel In Chief; he completed selection. It's roughly a battalion size unit which is divided into several elements. No serious attempt has ever been made by any Federal politician to do away with the JMF.

 

[Arji]

G20 chair Indonesia to push for peace with Ukraine, Russia visits

On another news, Jokowi is planned to travel to Ukraine and Russia next week, following the G7 summit. It's unclear what he'll be discussing, but as the G20 president this year, likely topic could be about the global food crisis as a result of the war, and for Russia in particular, regarding the G20 summit in November. Whilst I doubt this will amount to much, it is still interesting to watch Indonesia's role slowly evolve into what could be argues as the only few remaining bridges still standing between Russia and the West.

Though not explicitly said, but symbolically, Indonesia in this manner, could be argued to represent not only ASEAN, but the rest of the developing economies of the world.

 

[koxinga]

It's related to internal political happenings [at the Federal level and Johore] and are aimed at certain political figures. The next general election actions has to be held by next year and some [not him] are wishing for it be be held earlier. As for his audience I wouldn't jump and say they were "Ketuanan Melayu types" but rather people who were placed there or those who happened to already be supporters.

Given the talk was held under the banner of Kongres Survival Melayu, and the title of his presentation is Aku Melayu: Survival Bermula, and the applause he got from them, I seriously doubt that those fellas are there just for the fried chicken.

He can't "give it a rest" because he still has unfinished business. I'm sure he would like to but he can't.

Giving it a rest means accepting there are things and regrets he can't change and leaving it to the next generation to solve. Trying to (1) one up over Anwar (2) reshape Malaysia politics and identity are matters he (and a few other people in the Malaysian political spectrum) should learn to walk away from.

At least Lim Kit Siang has the foresight to walk away and leave with his legacy intact, despite an even longer list of unfulilled desires.

 

[STURM]

Given the talk was held under the banner of Kongres Survival Melayu, and the title of his presentation is Aku Melayu: Survival Bermula, and the applause he got from them, I seriously doubt that those fellas are there just for the fried chicken.

Sounds dramatic the title but he does everything for a purpose which often than not; he only knows. It was a small audience and if you understand Malaysian politics and the mindset of some; even if he said things they disapproved of; they wouldn't have heckled him. This might seem strange for outsiders to fathom but even though many are tired of him and feel that he should just retire gracefully; they still acknowledge that not all of his policies turned out badly.

are matters he (and a few other people in the Malaysian political spectrum) should learn to walk away from.

Understand that I'm not saying he shouldn't walk away; merely that there are reasons why he can't 'walk away yet' Just like there are reasons why he decided to again become active in politics - self interests. Others walked away because they had to or had no reason to stay.

At least Lim Kit Siang has the foresight to walk away and leave with his legacy intact, despite an even longer list of unfulilled desires.

Because he had to .... It wasn't ''foresight'' as you put it. There were elements within his party who wanted him gone and him staying could have been a liability. Compared to his former nemesis who later became a partner and then nemesis again; he had no political reasons or self interests to stay. He also has a son who occupies a high political position but who is also facing certain issues.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) recently announced that it will acquire ten Korean GPS Guided Bomb (KGGB) guidance kits. The KGGB will be installed on Thailand’s domestically-produced Mark 82 general-purpose bomb and will likely be used for testing purposes. Global Business Press reported that Thailand will be the third confirmed export customer of this South Korean-made glide bomb after Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Indonesia acquired an unknown quantity of KGGB guidance kits for testing and development purposes by PT. PINDAD in 2016 while Saudi Arabia also acquired an unknown amount of the bombs in 2017."|

I didn't know that Indonesia acquired some KGGB guidance kits from South-Korea. But it is interesting, Indonesia recently bought 102 JDAM-kits for its Mk.82 bombs. I don't know the price and performance difference between the KGGB and JDAM kits, but if the KGGB is cheaper, then it can be an attractive alternative for indigenous made free fall bombs.

The KGGB can also make the KAI T-50/FA-50 a more attractive candidate for the TUDM if offered as a package by South-Korea.

Royal Thai Air Force to Acquire LIG Nex1 KGGB (Korean GPS Guided Bomb) - MilitaryLeak.COM

The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) recently announced that it will acquire ten Korean GPS Guided Bomb (KGGB) guidance kits. The KGGB will be installed on

militaryleak.com

 

[koxinga]

Understand that I'm not saying he shouldn't walk away; merely that there are reasons why he can't 'walk away yet' Just like there are reasons why he decided to again become active in politics - self interests. Others walked away because they had to or had no reason to stay.

(1) So that people in power cannot take revenge against him for what he has done? -> He is still a Tun and commands significant respect in the Malay community. As for taking revenge, no one in Malaysian politics have their hands clean and at this age, they can just wait him to pass.

(2) Protect his family? -> My guess his family will fade from the political scene after he passes. Mukhriz is there because his old man runs the show/party and I don't see him taking the party forward.

(3) Legacy? -> The socio-economic situation (NEP, creation of a generation self-serving Malay elite class) is very much his making. Not sure how he can make it worst.

(4) Money? -> He and his family has more than enough, if the rumours are true.

My point is, if he is staying because he feels his work is not complete, then that is pretty much a self serving reason rather than for the greater good of Malaysia.