Which Aircraft Should PAF opt for? [Recent F-16 deal news, etc]

[SABRE]

Sabre

I must admit bro, you're really reliable when it comes to this stuff, because about your claim of Mirage 2000-9 being considered by PAF just got more basis, check this out;


http://english.www.gov.tw/index.jsp?action=cna&cnaid=8543

Can anyone say, massive joint order? With this, the PAF and PLAAF can host a huge order of 270, and then that should reduce the price of each plane considerably!

PAF has been considering Mirage2000-9 since the 1st coutomized version came out (M2K9 is coustomized version of M2K5 to make it suitable for UAE). PAF boys, who actualy are employees of UAE Airforce, were part of the coustomization team. Since their knowledge came from PAF, they coustomized the AirCraft according what they have learnt at PAF, hence the Mirage2000-9 came out not only as suitable for UAE AirForce but also PAF. Even the weapons coustomization suits PAF (& I wont be shocked if some of it are integrated on Thunders).

PAF did have a dilogue on Mirage2000-9 with France & Dessault. The AirCraft was suppose to be based on pure PAF coustomization (not similar to UAE AF). France agreed, Dessault okayed it & "we backed out". Reason of pulling out of the deal is some thing unknown to me. Probably the cost,but if u have Rafale on the list why would Mirage2000-9 be expensive.
My guess is that Dessault had told PAF about MultiRole version of Rafale, which is to be much cheaper than current Naval Rafales & A2A Rafales for French AirForce. I think that I herd the unit price to be $35Million to $45million a MultiRole version, while Naval & A2A version costs $60 to $65million. For $35million MultiRole versions are cheaper. (Again I think, I am not sure of the price).

I do believe China was/is interested in Mirages. The reason being that they want to go free from Russian Aviation Industry & look for more suitable & reliable Western AirCrafts. Since they cant buy US ACs they go for the next best French AirCrafts. This probably has some thing to do with American AirCrafts deployed in Tiwan. China seems not to be trusting Russian machines against American.

Mean While I doubt PAF will buy Mirage2000-9s. Remember they are looking ACs that could stay for longer period (over 30 years). F-16s, JF-17s, Mirage2000/5/9/N/D/Marc2 will only be arround for 2020. So if they buy AirCrafts that would expire by 2020 PAF will again start to face current problems. "In 2020 All AirCrafts would be aged & they wont have one Reliable fighter to defend the airspace. Hence I also side line F-18Es. Only thing remains is Rafale in the larger scope. Ef-2000 I have not herd so far from my sources & I doubt PAF will consider multi-nation project with all its maker countries involved in Politics of discremination & biasism.
On the other Hand there is JSF-35 but that depends on US-Pakistan relations in future.

I Choose MultiRole RAFALEs (coustomized versions though, like Mirage2000-9. If its possible).

Concur Sabre. I managed to get a hold of one of my sources and (to translate an Urdu proverb)"ate at his brains" for about 2 continous hours. Same result as what you're source said. BTW I myself would much rather preffer the Rafale or the Super Hornet over the M2K9 or the Falcon E/F. BTW F/A-18Es were mentioned by my sources as far back as 1 1/2 years ago. One more titbit related to the Thunder. The avionics suite has been finalised and is of a standard comparable to early 4th gen aircraft.Though the exact details are hush hush right now.

Umair if you even sit with them for whole day they all keep on giving same answers over & over again. The result is same for every one at every time.
Although one of my sources stepped out from others & said that Mirage2000-9 & F-18Es are unlikely (Reason I have stated above---the one about 2020 expiration year & long term AirCraft for probably 30yrs service)
So its Rafale left alone with the least competition.

 

[SABRE]

Add::

Some of them are saying there is always a heavy Discussion over J-10 in PAF but some officilas seem to be against it. They say that if you have JF-17 than why do u need another Chinese AirCraft, since JF-17 also carries some of the similar but need & importent weapons. This always ends the debate against J-10 no matter how good it is. Again J-10 is also 2020 AirCraf, so I too side line it. (remember we also have Chinese F-7PGs which are constantly being upgraded & as long as China is upgrading & producing them, PAF wont ground them, so we dont need Surplus of Chinese AirCrafts)

 

[BilalK]

Sabre


Good points raised, I also remember that Taiwan's Chief may have used the Mirage 2000-9CS as a knife in the throat type warning to the Taiwanese Defence Ministry. I also read somewhere that the Chinese liked the Rafale, but its costs made it a bit hard to consider?

 

[adsH]

The avionics suite has been finalised and is of a standard comparable to early 4th gen aircraft.Though the exact details are hush hush right now.

Let me Guess Extensive French Avionic Sub systems Integrated with a Swedish Datalink system. And either a Griffo S7 Improved 500w 600/800mm. Radar or the RC400 with 400w output. the version Griffo S7 600mm (Antenna) version would lack the Range and since it has less track and engage abilities. I really think Paf is going to Wait for the 800mm version its said to have a range of about 100km, and i can see why Paf would have to wait its really large its Mechanical Components are Large it sticks out allot. Is Paf going build the griffo S7 radar from a a source they say it has 25 modes, if that is the case then i Have seen this one it appears it was originally designed for a Mirage (or was tested on one).
i personally think the the 500w Griffo is appropriate since if you go above the 600w output of the TWT then you need Liquid coolants.

However with Doppler you have drawback apart from the Unit cost being low (which is a plus) there are Compromises that have to be made Like there are different modes you can conduct Tracking Inn refresh rates are limited.

+ Single Track: Highly accurate, it acquires and tracks the target that was previously designated with the designation Cursor, Since the Target is Illuminated by the radar the tracking Kalman Filters Update at batch rate. this mode gives increased accuracy under target maneuver. the bad part is that the Radar ignores any-other target.
the other Modes are as follows

+Situation awareness mode (SAM): the Mode where the tracking is centered on the designation cursor, which is of-course the Search in Sector.
Multiple targets can be tracked.

+Dual Target Track

+Track while scan

this is the prioritizeing mode where the all targets are scanned use the max limits of the radar abilities, usually you have the ability to track 10 targets where Auto prioritizing is available and asson as a target becomes a threat it has to be dealt with. the Track initialization is automatic and tracks are prioritized in accordance to the range or the time-to go. Accuracy takes a serious Hit here but on average each target should be updated at-least at 0.25hz

 

[BilalK]

The list should've been;
Rafale
Mirage 2000-9
F/A-18E/F Superhornet
J-10

Given that these aircraft are likely to be available.

 

[SABRE]

If u guys havent noticed..there is a poll on top of this thread. If u dont find the aircraft you think best suits PAF than just right it down here. No need to go for other lists.

Info; Pakistan officialy asked Russia for MiG-29 & Su-35. Russia has so far egnored the request. So you can also add these two ACs in PAF evaluation, but I am not hearing my main & reliable sources stating this, so this is just a roumer to me.

 

[P.A.F]

well taking it from your sources sabre PAF would like to get the rafale????

 

[SABRE]

I have asked this question alot...the answer all ways is "its not what PAF would like to have" & thats about it. No more answer.
My own guess is Yes if they are sold in multirole varient & at cheaper price of $35million.

 

[rajupaki]

The list should've been;
Rafale
Mirage 2000-9
F/A-18E/F Superhornet
J-10

Given that these aircraft are likely to be available.

F18 is not an option. J10 is the best avalible economical option. BTW u didnt mention gripen. It is also a good option for PAF.

 

[P.A.F]

my list would be
rafale
gripen
j-10
mirage2000-?

i wouldn't like to have another american jet in PAFs line-up.

 

[highsea]

my list would be
rafale
gripen
j-10
mirage2000-?

i wouldn't like to have another american jet in PAFs line-up.

The cheapest way to match up to the Su-30MKI would be F-15's.

Gripen , Mirage, J-10, are all about the same (or lower) wrt capability as the F-16's. Rafale is an orphan, F-22 and JSF are not on the table, and I doubt that the Typhoon would be either. Regardless, Rafale's and Typhoons are not cheap.

The only reason to operate more than one type of fourth gen multi-role AC is to protect Pak against sanctions if they piss off the US again for some reason. In that case, Mirage is probably the best choice for a second platform, as Gripen would be subject to the same sanctions that would affect the F-16's. Rafale would be the only other option for an Air Superiority platform, as Typhoon and F-15 depend on US approval.

So if the concern is US sanctions, then Mirage and Rafale for a hi-lo mix. If you want to save money and aren't worried about sanctions, then F-15/F-16 makes the most sense. Honestly, I don't think Super Hornets would be offered.

 

[BilalK]

Well, we have to see whether PAF is willing to go onto a twin engine aircraft, and if it does, it would take various things into account. For one, the most important, the political aspect of buying, the U.S hasn't been a stable dealer, and its just foolish to put all your eggs in one basket. Then we have France, political wise, its all good, but financial wise we're in a bit of a pickle. Like SABRE said, there is a much more cheaper Multirole version of Rafale which the PAF could buy, and its likely the PAF is waiting for that. Time isn't the problem, given that the PAF will be taking delivery of F-16s and JF-17s, it leaves quite a bit of breathing space, and does allow Rafale to come into the picture post-2009.

 

[adsH]

Typhoon and F-15 depend on US approval.

Just curious!! on what basis does the US Control the Typhoon. Politically the US may have just enough weight to control Spares or further sales in the Future. But Economic and strategic Interests of the United Kingdom may be at stake here, were dealing with a Weapon system that has the Potential of Capturing (once again) one of the Biggest Combat Ac market The RSAF (Saudi's) They have purchased our Tornados in the Past i see very little reason why they wont again. PAF and RSAF may be moving towards common Platforms As stated By many credible sources. the UK would not deny PAF Tornados as long as the Saudis are in the Deal and some one is footing the bill.

HighSea ! were desperate here our Manufacturing Industry is at an all time low.. we need to complete the UK gov planned Transition, Over the Next decade

 

[highsea]

Just curious!! on what basis does the US Control the Typhoon. Politically the US may have just enough weight to control Spares or further sales in the Future.

I didn't word that well, sorry. I'm not saying the US controls the Typhoon. There are several areas where there are US made components or licensed technology, the single crystal fan blades in the RR engines, Motorola processors in the flight control computers, Raytheon IFF, BAE and NG are very tight on the avionics side, the cockpit displays come from Planar, etc. There are several US companies involved. The main BVR missile is AMRAAM, the other missiles are AIM-9 and AIM-7 variants, and Boeing is even part of the Meteor development.

Also, the political considerations shouldn't be ignored. The UK is the closest US ally next to Canada, BAE has a large part of the JSF, and the close US-UK alliance means that the US could bring considerable political pressure on the UK in the event that US sanctions are placed on another country. I doubt that the UK would risk all these relationships without very good reasons. Selling a few AC is not a good enough reason.

This doesn't mean that the US would try to get in the way of any exports in most scenarios- but there are certain countries that we would- Iran, NorK, China. In other words, countries that the US has under military technology sanctions right now. KSA and Pak are not in that group, so the US would not say anything. But if Pakistan is concerned about potential US sanctions in the future, then they would need to consider how those sanctions would affect platforms from other countries like Sweden and the UK.

HighSea ! were desperate here our Manufacturing Industry is at an all time low.. we need to complete the UK gov planned Transition, Over the Next decade

What's stopping you?

 

[adsH]

What's stopping you?

we're moving from Manufacturing to Hightech Electronic Systems Design and production rather then Building the larger Chunks of the System that are Lobour intensive we are moving those offshores like India or even China. Finance, Electronics, Chem/Bio Tech, Medicen TECH, Architecture, Computer science. And various other High-tech sectors are what we're focussing onn, the Gov is planning out the Transition and they predict Half of the entire Young population in the next decade will hold some form of formal education Either at Degree or diploma level.

If i come back to the point where Unit numbers were addressed in in your argument. its not about " Selling a few AC" its about who we're selling to. The Saudi's are the only people who have ever bought anything expensive enough from us, Sounds a pathetic but those were the tornados. Now if Saudi's start to Outsource pakistanis. they would want a common System that they can either train there personnel inn or they could hire (out source) As they regularly do. So its not about the Pak here, we're talking about A major Market that we firmly control. we need to maintain that control. EF2000 is dependent on Foreign Orders. And Saudi's are the people the UK gove would be targeting.

 

[highsea]

Adsh, you are reading a whole lot more into my post than I what I was addressing. It's about what planes for PAF, not KSA. I understand the relationship between PAF pilots and Saudi, but that's not what I was commenting on.

I was simply observing that any fear of US sanctions wrt spare parts or weapons could potentially affect Typhoon and Gripen, but not Rafale or Mirage. If Pak wants to counter the SU-30's with something more than AMRAAM's, they need an air superiority fighter. That leaves them with a pretty short list of AC to pick from.

The common remark by Pakistanis here is "we shouldn't buy another US AC". Well, fine. It's not like there is any risk to Pakistan, since the US is giving $3 Billion in aid, and up to 1/2 of that money can be used to buy military items from the US if they want. But whatever.

If they want another AC that is immune to US influence, that essentially leaves them with China or France, because the new Eurocanards (not counting the Rafale and Mirage) have a lot of US tech, and Sukhois do not seem to be on the table. And the Chinese have nothing in the class that is competitive. So the choice is either:

a. buy an orphan (Rafale) or,
b. accept the risk of sanctions sometime down the road (Typhoon, F-15) or,
c. do nothing and wait for China to come out with something (J-XX)

 

[rafale_2k5]

Adsh, you are reading a whole lot more into my post than I what I was addressing. It's about what planes for PAF, not KSA. I understand the relationship between PAF pilots and Saudi, but that's not what I was commenting on.

I was simply observing that any fear of US sanctions wrt spare parts or weapons could potentially affect Typhoon and Gripen, but not Rafale or Mirage. If Pak wants to counter the SU-30's with something more than AMRAAM's, they need an air superiority fighter. That leaves them with a pretty short list of AC to pick from.

The common remark by Pakistanis here is "we shouldn't buy another US AC". Well, fine. It's not like there is any risk to Pakistan, since the US is giving $3 Billion in aid, and up to 1/2 of that money can be used to buy military items from the US if they want. But whatever.

If they want another AC that is immune to US influence, that essentially leaves them with China or France, because the new Eurocanards (not counting the Rafale and Mirage) have a lot of US tech, and Sukhois do not seem to be on the table. And the Chinese have nothing in the class that is competitive. So the choice is either:

a. buy an orphan (Rafale) or,
b. accept the risk of sanctions sometime down the road (Typhoon, F-15) or,
c. do nothing and wait for China to come out with something (J-XX)

Well it is pretty naiive to link evry thing that Saudis buy to Pakistan. Afterall theyve got f-15s n tornadoes , juding from same anology pakistan shouldve bought the same , but didnt nor it could afford even if it wanted too , i for one believe the threat of sanctions woul be there even from weapons procured through france or EU . If the US is pissed off even the EU cant do much about it plus comarin the two, i feel EU to be more sanction prone. Considerng the stark realities of this uni polar world indont see any nation ,even the super powers having the tenacity to openly flaunt US will. All in all u never know after F-16s, PAF goin 4 a few F-18s to fil the 4th generation fighter role. Because except 4 US equipment i dont see ether the French or EU developing ther tranche 2or 4 aircrafts sooner than 2010 , in all probabilities the choices basicaly remain relegated to Gripen , F-18s n and a remote possibility of j-10 since we cannort classify it true 4th generation until n unless we have official figures. Even than i would doubt that Paf wold go 4 this jet in near time frame , until the technology matures n enters into serial production , which may entail a time frame from 2012 onwards..... as far s JXX is cncerned i dnt think any country has the where withal pllus the funding to pursue stealth technlogies.... !!!! till todate plus the assosciated costs of R &D which except for US no nation can single handedly pursue....Even the Russians r looking for joint colaborations wrt PAK-FA....

 

[adsH]

There are several US companies involved. The main BVR missile is AMRAAM, the other missiles are AIM-9 and AIM-7 variants, and Boeing is even part of the Meteor development.

I have to agree with you on that Highsea, But i think we have the AIM-132 ASRAAM (DSTL) which is (cautiously Put) Indigenous, And intigrated on the Typhoon (Correct me if i'm wrong) i mean the Entire Housing the Rocket and the Subsystem including the Production is ours i guess the only thing that is Not Indigenous in this Missile is the IR Seeker which is the Same one that is on the AIM9X. And its listed on the DOD Wepons List (It was supposed to replace the AIM9 Variants at one time but not anymore).

 

[SABRE]

Adsh, you are reading a whole lot more into my post than I what I was addressing. It's about what planes for PAF, not KSA. I understand the relationship between PAF pilots and Saudi, but that's not what I was commenting on.

I was simply observing that any fear of US sanctions wrt spare parts or weapons could potentially affect Typhoon and Gripen, but not Rafale or Mirage. If Pak wants to counter the SU-30's with something more than AMRAAM's, they need an air superiority fighter. That leaves them with a pretty short list of AC to pick from.

The common remark by Pakistanis here is "we shouldn't buy another US AC". Well, fine. It's not like there is any risk to Pakistan, since the US is giving $3 Billion in aid, and up to 1/2 of that money can be used to buy military items from the US if they want. But whatever.

If they want another AC that is immune to US influence, that essentially leaves them with China or France, because the new Eurocanards (not counting the Rafale and Mirage) have a lot of US tech, and Sukhois do not seem to be on the table. And the Chinese have nothing in the class that is competitive. So the choice is either:

a. buy an orphan (Rafale) or,
b. accept the risk of sanctions sometime down the road (Typhoon, F-15) or,
c. do nothing and wait for China to come out with something (J-XX)

I think PAF can buy another US AirCraft & I believe it should, but that is only if US agrees on an iron clad contract that they wont be banned (except unless during war time---but that to has to be when we take the 1st step) other wise its usless.

About F-15s...I have not herd them on being on evalution list. Rafale very much are. To be on a safe side RAFALEs are the better choice & PAF seems to be waiting till its multi-role version comes out & the orphan has found some home.

J-XX would be worth buying but not worth waiting. About 24 Rafales will do now, later PAF can build its fleet on J-XX.

Over all what u have said in ur this & previous post are quite relavent. Even though I too have told that there is no EF-2000 on the list, but some ppl keep going to it.

 

[BilalK]

However what if a nation that has good ties with Pakistan also wants to buy a Rafales, but in significant numbers, would the PAF and the air force of that nation host a joint order, and would the PAF then acquire 40+ Rafales?