War Against ISIS

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The SAA offensive in Northern Aleppo has cut off the Azaz corridor. At the same time Tiger Force is pushing westward out of Kuweiris, attempting to close a pocket north-east of Aleppo that will leave several thousand ISIS fighters trapped. If both actions succeed and hold against counter-attacks, the SAA will have effectively won the battle of Aleppo, and the fates of the rebels in Aleppo and Idlib province are sealed. With this, an Iranian general, a Russian military adviser, and a number of Iranian military personnel have died. Russia is accusing Turkey of being involved with the artillery strike that killed the Russian adviser. A reminder, this comes shortly after Turkey has begun firing artillery across the border into Syria.

Прорвана оÑада шиитÑкого анклава к Ñеверу от Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин
Война продолжаетÑÑ - Colonel Cassad
Битва за Ðлеппо 03.02.2016 - Colonel Cassad
СириÑ. С 30-го ÑентÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ 2015-го - четвёртый наш официально признанный погибший... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ îòðåçàëà áîåâèêîâ îò ïóíêòîâ ñíàáæåíèÿ íà ñåâåðå Àëåïïî
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Ðîññèè ñîîáùèëè î ãèáåëè âîåííîãî ñîâåòíèêà â Ñèðèè

SAA forces also continue to push out of Sheikh Miskin with the idea being to secure the major highway leading to Deraa. Meanwhile an ISIS counter-attack out of Palmyra has captured 3 suburbs and pushed back the SAA forces. And another attack has been attempted on SAA positions in Deyr-ez-Zor, but it has also failed.

Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии 03.02.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Сводка военных дейÑтвий в Сирии 2-3 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года, ÑнÑта оÑада поÑелков Ðубуль и Ðз-Захра (Туфелька)

New satellite imagery of Hmeimeem reveals the Su-35S landed, and the downed Su-24M has been replaced. 2 Su-34s are absent, likely on a sortie. And the second link is some ground photos of the 4 Su-35S landed at Hmeimeem.

Ð*оÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ° в Сирии - bmpd
Análisis Militares: Su-35S en Siria

Peace talks in Geneva collapse in the face of the SAA cutting the Azaz corridor. A reminder, the talks opened with a rebel ultimatum. Perhaps not the wisest position to take, when one is losing.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Íå êîíåö è íå ïðîâàë": ÎÎÍ ïðèîñòàíîâèëà ïåðåãîâîðû ïî ìèðíîìó óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ â Ñèðèè

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Turkey is very uncooperative in detaining Russian citizens that travel to Syria to join terrorist organizations.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ÌÈÄ ÐÔ ïîñåòîâàëè, ÷òî Òóðöèÿ íå ïîìîãàëà â ïîèìêå òåððîðèñòîâ èç Ðîññèè, íàïðàâëÿþùèõñÿ â Ñèðèþ

Turkey has denied Russia their observation flight under the Open Skies treaty, because the flight would have been near the Turkey-Syria border. Note this denial comes shortly after Russia accused Turkey of using artillery fire from long range heavy artillery, to support rebels in Syria. A tactic reminiscent of Russian involvement in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ îáúÿñíèëà îòêàç Ðîññèè â íàáëþäàòåëüíîì ïîëåòå â ðàìêàõ "Îòêðûòîãî íåáà" íåñïîñîáíîñòüþ Ìîñêâû ñîãëàñîâàòü ìàðøðóò

Lavrov and Kerry have agreed to coordinate humanitarian aid deliveries to blocked off areas in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëàâðîâ è Êåððè äîãîâîðèëèñü ñîãëàñîâûâàòü ñîâìåñòíóþ äîñòàâêó ãóìàíèòàðíîé ïîìîùè â áëîêèðîâàííûå ðàéîíû Ñèðèè

More footage of the new APS suite Syrian armor is getting.

Gur Khan attacks!: СирийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° получила новый ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑ Ð·Ð°Ñ‰Ð¸Ñ‚Ñ‹ от противотанковых ракет

EDIT: A few more things.

The Russian government has so far declined to release the name of the military adviser killed in Syria, but has stated that he was killed by mortar fire in Homs province. This rules out Turkish military involvement.

http://newsru.com/russia/04feb2016/sovetnik.html
http://newsru.com/russia/04feb2016/peskov.html

Russia has openly accused Turkey of preparing an invasion of Syria. They claim that the refusal to allow the Russian observation flight, under the open skies treaty, is only one piece of evidence.

It's quite likely that the recently constructed artillery positions on the Turkish border are another piece. And of course significant Turkish military presence has been near the Syrian border for some time now.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1896562.html

Iraq is planning construction of a wall around Baghdad.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1896360.html

Tiger Force commander, colonel Hasan, riding around in a Lynx MRAP. Likely a Russian donation. Given the significance of his command, some investment into his personal safety is well justified. It also confirms earlier rumors that Russia had handed over some Iveco Lynxes to the Syrians.

http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/419846.html

Germany promises 2.3 bln euros in aid for refugees from Syria.

http://newsru.com/world/04feb2016/syria_donors.html

Erdogan says negotiations on Syria are impossible while Russia is killing people.

Note, while his statement is loaded and political, he's not entirely wrong. The negotiations just broke down and it's very likely that the SAA offensive against the Azaz corridor is responsible for it. The timing on it is very suspicious. It's likely that the offensive was intended as a strong card to play, right before the negotiations began in earnest. Of course the other problem is that if the offensive is successful, it will mean that negotiations will proceed along very different lines. Without the Azaz corridor and after losing most of the Latakia mountains, the rebel positions in Hama, Aleppo, Latakia, and Idlib, will all hang on a thread. And with the obvious and eventual push into Idlib from two sides ( Aleppo and Latakia), Assad could very well crush the entire non-ISIS resistance in northern Syria.

http://newsru.com/world/04feb2016/erdogan.html
 
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Toblerone

Banned Member
As I posted back in #1818 it was logical that some offensives would intensify because of the negotiations, trying to get a solid/clear victory. I think that huge IS offensive in Deir-ez-Zor is part of that.

Also, like I posted earlier I expect Turkey to try to stir up the waters to bring NATO into this conflict in some manner against Russia, like he did with the su-24 shootdown. Erdogan must be getting desperate now that his dreams of a new Syria that he can manhandle are crushed.

I want to see if the rebels can muster some strength to do a counter-attack. If not, then they really are very weakened at this point. Or is it the lack of salaries that weakens their revolutionary resolve? :p3

EDIT: What are those APS tank addons doing?
 

stojo

Member
Without the Azaz corridor and after losing most of the Latakia mountains, the rebel positions in Hama, Aleppo, Latakia, and Idlib, will all hang on a thread. And with the obvious and eventual push into Idlib from two sides ( Aleppo and Latakia), Assad could very well crush the entire non-ISIS resistance in northern Syria.
Ill agree that the rebels are being pounded lately, but I wouldn't go that far. At least as far Idlib is concerned, the entire border between that province and Tukrey is still in rebel hands.

Even without Azaz corridor, Turkey is pretty much able to supply rebels, at least in the Idlib province.

Plus, even if rebels would have been totally surrounded, that would still not mark their defeat. Look for how long are they fighting in Homs....
 

lowgo

New Member
EDIT: What are those APS tank addons doing?
It does look like it might be a part of Active Protection System being a doppler radar or some laser beam detection array component. It does however look like it could be an improvised device. The pictures of these worn out t54/55 do not show any other components of a typical APS which would be quick action projectile launchers and such.

It could be for warning purposes only. Maybe it can detect TOW laser rangefinder beam..
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
But I think that the TOW is wire-guided and it also tracks the rocket by the IR signature of the flare on its back.

Does it also have a laser rangefinder so that you know if you are within range? If so, then why use it if the target has a suspicious protection thingy on top of it?
 

lowgo

New Member
But I think that the TOW is wire-guided and it also tracks the rocket by the IR signature of the flare on its back.

Does it also have a laser rangefinder so that you know if you are within range? If so, then why use it if the target has a suspicious protection thingy on top of it?
Yes its wired and the ITAS update introduced a laser rangefinder. Not sure if that is what is used in the theater. The ITAS version is expensive that makes it limited for export. There is a TOW 2B anit-tank that uses laser profilometer - although its in the warhead for a tank turret lock assistance. Anyway this is purely speculative as the device looks ad-hoc made and lacks other components of a typical APS given a range of different vehicles its mounted on.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The SAA offensive continues around Aleppo, widening the corridor separating the Turkish border from Aleppo. Also government troops are widening the corridor of control leading to Deraa. Also Tiger Force continues to take villages, pushing westward. They haven't closed the pocket yet, but it looks like they will soon.

Meanwhile ISIS has attacked Deyr-ez-Zor again, and has gained some ground there.

Ðеудобное наÑтупление - Colonel Cassad
СириÑ, Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка 5 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Военные дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹Ñкой армии и РоÑÑийÑких ВКС 4 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)

Su-35S flying CAPs in Syria with RVV-SD missiles an R-77 upgrade.

ИÑтребители Су-35С Ñ Ñ€Ð°ÐºÐµÑ‚Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ РВВ-СД начали боевое дежурÑтво в Сирии - bmpd
СириÑ: Су-35С - Берлога Бронемедведа
Análisis Militares: Su-35S, configuraciones de armamento

Iranian Shahed-129 UAVs have been deployed to Syria.

ИранÑкие БПЛРShahed-129 на боевом патрулировании - Юрий ЛÑмин

Combat footage out of Syria, including some more of the T-90s.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ðовые видео Т-90 в боÑÑ… в Сирии
СирийÑкие будни... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

In Turkey, the government has begun clearing the Kurdish capital of Sur.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ вÑтупила в бой Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑтными активиÑтами в "Ñтолице" курдов (ko_mon)

Iran saying good bye to their war dead from Syria.

Ð’ Иране прощаютÑÑ Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸, погибшими в Сирии в ходе наÑÑ‚ÑƒÐ¿Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин

Saudi Arabia and Bahrein have expressed willingness to participate in a ground operation in Syria as part of the US led coalition effort.

In response to all of this Syria threatens to send any invaders home in body bags. Russia says that any Saudi intervention in Syria would be a declaration of war on Syria.

Íîâòè NEWSru.com :: Áàõðåéí çàÿâèë î ãîòîâíîñòè ïðèñîåäèíèòüñÿ ê íàçåìíîé îïåðàöèè â Ñèðèè
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãëàâà ÌÈÄ Ñèðèè óãðîæàåò îòïðàâèòü àãðåññîðîâ "äîìîé â ãðîáàõ"
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðåìëü âíèìàòåëüíî ñëåäèò çà ñèòóàöèåé ñ Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèåé, êîòîðàÿ ìîæåò íà÷àòü íàçåìíóþ îïåðàöèþ ïðîòèâ ÈÃ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: The Guardian: Ñàóäîâñêàÿ Àðàâèÿ ìîæåò ââåñòè âîéñêà â Ñèðèþ ïðè ïîääåðæêå Òóðöèè
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñàóäîâñêàÿ Àðàâèÿ çàÿâèëà î ãîòîâíîñòè íà÷àòü ñóõîïóòíóþ îïåðàöèþ â Ñèðèè
Саудиты Ñозрели - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
 

chris

New Member
But I think that the TOW is wire-guided and it also tracks the rocket by the IR signature of the flare on its back.

Does it also have a laser rangefinder so that you know if you are within range? If so, then why use it if the target has a suspicious protection thingy on top of it?
What if they are simple IR lights able to emulate TOW's IR flare? That would render their whole guidance system useless. There will always be a flare where the cross-hair points, no mater where the missile is. Even if the flare signature is modulated, I think that enough TOWs have fallen to SAA hands to reverse engineer them. Just a guess, I have no hard evidence to support that.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What if they are simple IR lights able to emulate TOW's IR flare? That would render their whole guidance system useless. There will always be a flare where the cross-hair points, no mater where the missile is. Even if the flare signature is modulated, I think that enough TOWs have fallen to SAA hands to reverse engineer them. Just a guess, I have no hard evidence to support that.
Here are more photos, including a decent quality close-up. Note that the system is even installed on a technical, in one case. Clearly the process of their deployment is at least somewhat haphazard, and yet they seem to have shown up in significant quantities. Charly compares them to the sensor on top of the Arena APS, but hastens to add that the similarities are minimal.

Análisis Militares: Equipo sin identificar en Siria
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
According to the ISW blog the next move of the SAA coalition would be to take over the towns of Huraytan and Kafr Hamra and encircle the Aleppo fighters for good. I am afraid of what the response of the rebel backers will be, if they are put in check like that.

Meanwhile, is anything going on in Iraq against the IS? Isn't there an incentive to gain back control of their territory or is the government complacent with the situation? Because when you don't fight for your sovereignty, then you can't expect others to respect it.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
I know, consider the source, but this provides an interesting compare/contrast of Russian V US efforts vs Deash to date


What is the Difference Between Russia's and US' Air Campaigns in Syria?
The Russian task force has supported the Syrian Arab Army, which numbers between 150,000 to 200,000 personnel. According to military analysts, government forces have over 4,000 tanks (the Russian-made T-55, T-72 and the newest T-90A) and nearly 400 warplanes.
Heh, some dubious claims all through the article.

I think the main advantage for the russians is the cooperation with ground troops. No amount of satellite coverage can make up for this direct feed of accurate information directly from the front. Also, what good is the "degrading" of an enemy if you don't have some boots on the ground to take advantage of it?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to the ISW blog the next move of the SAA coalition would be to take over the towns of Huraytan and Kafr Hamra and encircle the Aleppo fighters for good. I am afraid of what the response of the rebel backers will be, if they are put in check like that.
They're threatening, implicitly, an intervention in Syria. Saudi Arabia has scratched together an Islamic coalition, though given their track record in Yemen, I have to wonder whether they're serious. And of course the Turks likely have plans for action in the north. Whether they will act or not is a complex question, and what kind of Russian response we can expect is unclear. Especially to a joint invasion of Syria from the south by the Saudi coalition and the north by Turkey. Syria could end up effectively partitioned.

Meanwhile, is anything going on in Iraq against the IS? Isn't there an incentive to gain back control of their territory or is the government complacent with the situation? Because when you don't fight for your sovereignty, then you can't expect others to respect it.
They're trying to close the pocket west of Kuweiris. They were pushed back out of a village dead west, so they're pushing north-west now, to cut the highway from al-Bab into Aleppo. There's also quite a bit of back and forth between the SAA and ISIS around Palmyra. It's mostly indecisive because regime forces are stretched thin. I think Assad will seek to win the battle of Aleppo, and possibly even prioritize the push against rebels in Idlib, before he takes on ISIS as his main opponent. It's hard to fight a serious enemy like ISIS with the other rebels in your rear. From a military strategic view I think this is correct. Knock out the small ones, one by one, and then focus on the stronger enemy last. Also remember ISIS is plenty busy in Iraq, and against the Kurds, meaning they're exerting less pressure on the Assad regime.

I know, consider the source, but this provides an interesting compare/contrast of Russian V US efforts vs Deash to date


What is the Difference Between Russia's and US' Air Campaigns in Syria?
Sputnik certainly gets silly at times.

"Two US aircraft carriers have fired 47 missiles during the operation."
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

SAA offensives near Aleppo continue, they're still pushing towards the al-Bab Aleppo highway, and they're expanding the corridor separating Azaz from Aleppo. It appears the Kurds in that area are working very closely with the SAA in that area, to close the Azaz corridor. Given the love between the Kurds and Turkey, this isn't too surprising. Meanwhile Tiger Force is now 7 kms away from friendly lines in Aleppo. Once they close, several thousand ISIS fighters will be trapped north-east of Aleppo.

They're also pushing out of Deraa eastward, taking Einayma. This smaller town sits right next to the M1 highway. Securing it gives the SAA a shot at making the M1 the new MSR to Deraa. Meanwhile Ibtaa and Dael, two cities on the M5 highway running straight from Sheikh Miskin to Deraa attempted to surrender to the SAA but were prevented by the FSA and an-Nusra who arrested the local sheikhs, and some locals that attempted to raise SAA flags in the city. It looks like a government offensive is incoming.

Small gains in northern Latakia, it looks like the stage is being set for another major push.

Meanwhile an NDF offensive in Eastern Guta has ended in disaster, leaving many government fighters dead.

More terrorist attacks in Damascus.

Сводка военных дейÑтвий в Сирии 6-7 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии 8 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (обновлено) (Туфелька)
Военное положение в Сирии 9 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)

Images of the fighting around Aleppo. The last video is an alleged video of a Saudi troop column moving towards the Syrian border.

СпаÑти Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad

Vintage artillery in Syria.

Любители винтажа в Сирии, чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 5 - Берлога Бронемедведа

Info that the Ukrainian BDK Russia captured in Crimea is being prepared for participation in the Syrian express.

Большой деÑантный корабль "КонÑтантин ОльшанÑкий" может Ñтать чаÑтью СирийÑкого ÑкÑпреÑÑа? - bmpd

Iranian MLRS on 4X4 chassis near Aleppo.

Ð‘Ð°Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€ÐµÑ Ð¸Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñких 107-мм РПУ на внедорожниках около Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин

Canada is pulling out of the anti-ISIS coalition.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êàíàäà ïðåêðàùàåò áîðüáó ïðîòèâ ÈÃ â ðàìêàõ ìåæäóíàðîäíîé êîàëèöèè

Merkel says she's shocked with the sufferings of Syrians from Russian air strikes.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåðêåëü çàÿâèëà, ÷òî "øîêèðîâàíà" ñòðàäàíèÿìè ñèðèéöåâ èç-çà ðîññèéñêèõ áîìáàðäèðîâîê

Another Russian jet violated Israeli airspace.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèé âîåííûé ñàìîëåò âíîâü íàðóøèë âîçäóøíóþ ãðàíèöó Èçðàèëÿ

The UAE says they're ready to deploy to Syria too, meanwhile Bahrein denies having any such plans. I wonder if their denial will stand if the Saudis decide it's time to act.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÀÝ îáúÿâèëè î ãîòîâíîñòè íàïðàâèòü ñóõîïóòíûå âîéñêà â Ñèðèþ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Áàõðåéíà îïðîâåðãëè äàííûå î ïëàíàõ ãîñóäàðñòâà íàïðàâèòü ñâîè âîéñêà â Ñèðèþ

Chinese YJ-27 radar in Deyr-ez-Zor. Likely one of the few means the SAA has for monitoring airspace in eastern Syria.

РЛС JY-27 в оÑажденном Дейр-Ñз-Зоре - Юрий ЛÑмин

Some material on the Turkish crackdown against the Kurds.

ДиÑÑекир - Colonel Cassad

Good quality shot of an Mi-35M at Hmeimeem. It was noted earlier that they were present, and it was speculated that 4 have been deployed there.

Ми-35М в Сирии - bmpd

A Syrian fire support vehicle, a ZU-23-2 on a T-55 chassis.

Gur Khan attacks!: ÐžÐ³Ð½ÐµÐ²Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð´ÐµÑ€Ð¶ÐºÐ° по-ÑирийÑки.

Russia has arrested 7 alleged ISIS members in Ekaterinburg.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÔÑÁ çàäåðæàëà ñåìåðûõ ïðåäïîëàãàåìûõ òåððîðèñòîâ, ãîòîâèâøèõ òåðàêòû â Ðîññèè

Russia denies blame for the negotiations between Assad and the opposition breaking down, pointing to the opposition having no single position, and issuing ultimatums to Assad before the negotiations even began.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðåìëü îòðèöàåò âèíó Ðîññèè â ñðûâå ïåðåãîâîðîâ ïî Ñèðèè
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Thanks for the updates Feanor. But my "sovereignty" comment was about Iraq and you replied to me about Syria :D

Canada will stop bombing missions but will keep being involved, refuelling missions, iraqi training etc. I don't think it will change anything if the few rustbuckets they have there will take on other missions. But the principle of the matter is that they turned their backs.

I saw a video from the eastern guta, some government troops getting mowed down from their flank in the middle of the field ... mistakes were made...
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Thanks for the updates Feanor. But my "sovereignty" comment was about Iraq and you replied to me about Syria :D

Canada will stop bombing missions but will keep being involved, refuelling missions, iraqi training etc. I don't think it will change anything if the few rustbuckets they have there will take on other missions. But the principle of the matter is that they turned their backs.

I saw a video from the eastern guta, some government troops getting mowed down from their flank in the middle of the field ... mistakes were made...
Trudeau junior is a complete kumbayah flake POS. With this a$$hole in charge, NATO might as well ask Canada to leave and make some space for a new member that is prepared to contribute (Sweden perhaps).
 
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