John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I do not see any ROE being effective in civil wars, the most ugly form of Warfare and trying to make it pretty is akin to lipstick on a pig.
War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
- Start date
AndrewGarza
New Member
A very simple ROE is effective here, do not engage unless engaged. Yeah Civil Wars are ugly and dirty, specifically because they're insurgencies. The enemy does not wear a uniform so it's extremely easy to blend into the general populace, fully knowing the military cannot just kill off civilian groups, because doing that would lead more civilians to become insurgents, ultimately causing the military to lose the war, but this doesn't mean ROEs need to be thrown out the window and the Military should kill anybody who looks at them funny. I might just be ignorant but I've never heard of an insurgency that has failed in it's ultimate goal.
The issue here isn't whether they can select for insurgents among civilians or whether they can avoid collateral damage. The enemy here has armored vehicles and artillery, and while the blend into the civilian population, they generally can be targeted with good recon and intel. The Syrians have neither, and this conversation isn't about limiting collateral damage. There is no question that the SAA has relatively little regard for civilians. There is also little question about the SAA and government-associated militias committing what would be regarded as war crimes. My main point is that I think it would be difficult to prove. Not that it didn't happen.
I'm sure they aren't all of 'em, just those within reach of this particular rescue effort. Co-ordinated rescue efforts aren't necessarily practical elsewhere. Depends on whether there's anywhere safe to evacuate to.
As for the rest - I don't know. I've heard reports of some being evacuated elsewhere, from an area negotiating a surrender to an area remaining under rebel control. Others may have discarded their identifying markers & gone home, but I don't know.
Malayan Emergency - 1948 to 1960.
The majority of insurgencies have failed historically. In his book 'Invisible Armies' Max Boot lists 443 insurgencies post 1775, of which only 25.5 percent resulted in success for the insurgents.
2007yellow430
Active Member
A more detail analysis is here:
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG965.pdf
Art
Greek Communist uprising towards end of and post WW2 which was the Greek Civil War.
I see that the US have finally caught up with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and delivered chastisement unto him. I normally can't abide President trumps rhetoric, however I though that his choice of words, in this case appropriate although somewhat insulting to dogs: ISIL chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed in Syria, confirms Trump. There has been some reaction from other world leaders: World reacts to death of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, with the Russians casting some doubt and the Iranians claiming the US killed its own creation. However, it is thought that al-Baghdadi's death will not be the death of Daesh, a stumble yes, but not a deleterious ending as some are claiming. It certainly won't make the world much of a safer place because, by all accounts, Daesh had planned for the death of al-Baghdadi and it is not tied to one man. Baghdadi's death will damage ISIS, but not destroy it. If anything it may create greater security paranoia amongst its surviving leadership, and further devolution of authority from the centre to the franchise groups with the only fixed commandment being that they strictly adhere to the teachings and dogma of al-Baghdadi.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
One has to wonder what kind of effective leadership this mutt was really providing the last couple of years. He was rarely seen and certainly didn't have the persona of Bin Laden. Still, a good outcome, even if it takes the political heat off of Trump for a few days.
he doesn't have to be seen to provide the leadership. If he was passing on his dogmas and fatwas etc., through other channels down through the chain of command he was still leading. As long as he was getting his message an orders out to his subordinates and followers, he was doing his job. They still have their social media presence I believe.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
From a security POV, his minimal presence did make sense. Unlike many other leaders I don't believe he had any field experience. Only the intelligence officials can gauge how much control he was exerting on his subordinates and followers or if senior ISIS commanders were running the show. He seemed to be a concept guy and then he hid in the shadows as a figure head occasionally sticking his had up. He was more like Mullah Omar without the battlefield experience.
Pentagon releases first images from raid that killed ISIS leader
More and more operational details of the 26 October 2019 raid that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have been released and I am getting worried that the Trump Admin’s handling of this will tigger more ISIS reprisals (instead of using a measured tone) or make future raids more dangerous. Even comedians are getting into the act to compare Trump against Obama (after the Osama bin Ladin raid) which is not good.
ISIS lost a skilled mediator, a ruthless politician, a religious scholar, and a rapist and murderer of ‘noble’ lineage - an unusual combination for the leader of a global militant organisation. But despite the loss, ISIS will still exist after this raid. The death of al-Baghdadi, hailed as a major victory for the Trump administration in the region, is unlikely to deter them from future terrorist attacks. Prior to launching the Bin Laden raid, Barack Obama informed leaders of both parties in Congress. Some, such as the Republican then chairing the House Intelligence Committee, said they had been in touch with the White House regarding its Bin Laden efforts. In a break with tradition, Democratic leaders in Congress - including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and House intelligence committee chair Adam Schiff - were not informed ahead of the Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi raid. "We were going to notify them last night, but we decided not to do that because Washington leaks like I've never seen before," Trump said.
Being measured on the raid’s success against Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is my preferred choice as the whereabouts of three humanitarian workers kidnapped by the ISIS in Syria in 2013 are still unknown — Fate of ISIS Kidnapping Victims in Syria Remains Uncertain
More and more operational details of the 26 October 2019 raid that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have been released and I am getting worried that the Trump Admin’s handling of this will tigger more ISIS reprisals (instead of using a measured tone) or make future raids more dangerous. Even comedians are getting into the act to compare Trump against Obama (after the Osama bin Ladin raid) which is not good.
Being measured on the raid’s success against Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is my preferred choice as the whereabouts of three humanitarian workers kidnapped by the ISIS in Syria in 2013 are still unknown — Fate of ISIS Kidnapping Victims in Syria Remains Uncertain
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Time has a good article about situation after the raid. Some foot for thought, it seems that the Daesh have managed a coherent response and succession. It is of course impossible to know to which degree this is a true reflection of the inner workings. Time only will tell, but it looks like a sadly good power transfer which should reduce the chances of fracture and flight.
1. The new leader is Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi and this name is believed to be a nom de guerre. With the name "al-Qurashi", ISIS also made clear that he claims to be descended from the Prophet Muhammad's Quraysh tribe - something generally held by pre-modern Sunni scholars as being a key qualification for becoming a caliph.
2. ISIS also confirmed the death of spokesman Abu al-Hasan al-Muhajir, who was killed in another raid/attack against ISIS.
3. The new ISIS spokesman, Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, also called on Muslims to swear allegiance to Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi.
4. The reality is that the dream of an ISIS caliphate by these terrorists is no longer viable and at an operational level, they can no longer ‘win’ as an army against other rebel groups, like the SDF, in Syria. The nucleus of ISIS activity in Syria is the greater region of Deir al-Zour in the north-east, particularly the areas extending south of Bosaira towards Diban. The SDF control the area but have struggled to gain acceptance there because the SDF is Kurdish-dominated while the area is populated by Arab tribes that reject not only the SDF but also the Syrian army and Iran-backed militias. The other complicating factor is Turkey and it’s militias in Syria, where Russian and Turkish troops have begun patrolling what Turkey says is a "safe zone" in north-east Syria. The abrupt withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria opened the way for Turkey to launch an offensive across the border. After days of clashes with the Kurdish-led Syrian SDF, in early Nov 2019, Turkey agreed to pause for Kurdish fighters to withdraw beyond a range of 30km (18 miles).
5. Over the fourteen months from Sep 2016 to Nov 2017, the Iraqi Security Forces wrestled their nation from the clutches of ISIS in some of the fiercest and most brutal urban combat experienced since World War Two — see the SOTG 632 approach for details. Since Nov 2017, when ISIS was defeated in Iraq, there is on going support by the US for Iraq in a train and assist plan, including support from a diverse coalition of Australian Commandos and a small number of SAS operators, US Naval Special Warfare operators, paratroopers from the US 82nd Airborne Division, and specialist surgeons and medical staff largely drawn from the US and Belgium. In 2019, there is a new open-ended NATO training mission in Iraq and essentially involved teacher-on-teacher instruction for the rebuilt Iraqi Army and other Iraqi Security Forces. As part of these train and assist efforts, in Oct 2019, the NATO Mission Iraq and European Union Advisory Mission Iraq (EUAM Iraq) signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to formalise and further strengthen the good cooperation between the two Missions. NATO’s assistance is helping Iraq to enhance the skills of a core group of instructors and trainers, and help strengthen Iraqi defence institutions to enable them to be self-sustaining in the future.
6. Instead, ISIS have evolved into a terror franchise holder (with cooperation from local tribes in parts of Syria, where they can get support) and really now operate via sleeper cells (that are dangerous) but they are not as capable in their days when they were a caliphate that spanned Iraq and Syria.
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Allegedly, a group of ISIS fighters from Afghanistan attacked a border check point in Tadjikistan, reminiscent of similar attempts by the Taliban/Mujahadeen in the 90s. However the footage of the situation looks a bit odd, with it looks more like a column was hit by an ambush, rather then an attack fought off by the Tadjik border guards. If this does turn out to be an ISIS attack, this could mark a new step in the destabilization of the region, with ISIS actively picking at the post-Soviet states in Central Asia.
Нападение на погранзаставу "Ишкобод"
Нападение на погранзаставу "Ишкобод"
Beautifully written and once again a reminder of the human face of war and the importance of the human heart in this bitter contest. Of course beside the men the material was also needed to enable operations, facilitate success and reduce casualities.
It might seem strange but The school of hard knocks offers a fine insight how vicous and deadly the spiral of intenstive combat can become if an arrogant army leadership, forced to quickly mass mobilize, does a great deal wrong. Errors were unavoidably, but not to this extent.
Attrition in itself means death and harm but additionally causes more suffering down the line of operations as the loss of leaders, experience and energy degrades units which tend to be less effective and lose more. The support outlined in this article certainly limited it.and helped to win the fight.
Is Iraq (like Somalia) doomed to an endless cycle of civil wars?
1. On 19 Jul 2021, a suicide bomber killed at least 35 people and wounded 60, in the Wahailat market in Sadr City (near Iraq’s capital Baghdad), on the eve of the Eid al-Adha festival.bloody attack sparked a furious response from Iraqis on social media.
3. In June 2016, Mustafa al-Khadhimi took over the role of director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service, in light of the intensification of the battles against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS or Daesh). During his tenure, he forged links with dozens of countries and agencies operating within the US-led international coalition against ISIL. Despite being blessed by Iran, Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq are suspicious of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
4. Experts and protestors point at Iran-affiliated militias, accusing them of being responsible for a string of assassinations that mainly targeted activists. Ihab Jawad Al-Wazni, a famous Iraqi activist, was assassinated by unidentified gunmen on 9 May 2021 outside his home in the southern city of Karbala. The murder sparked massive protests in Karbala. Hundreds of people took to the streets in the predominantly Shia city condemning the assassination.
5. Iraqi protesters in Karbala blocked roads and burned tyres. They demanded the Iraqi authorities find out the attackers and reveal their identity to the public. Although Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has vowed to prosecute the attackers, no perpetrator has been brought to justice so far. Dr. Tallha Abdulrazaq, a security expert on the Middle East from the University of Exeter, said that the nature of the killing suggests that pro-Iranian Shia militia groups are behind the assassinations of both Al Wazni and several other prominent Iraqis. Since 2003, according to Abdulrazaq the Shia militias have tracked the killings of those who criticise or oppose them, and Iraq has become a state that serves such extremist groups rather than the local population. “That is precisely why the protesters reacted by attacking the Iranian consulate because everyone knows who's truly responsible,” Abdulrazaq said. Nearly 30 Iraqi activists have been killed by unknown gunmen since 2019 and dozens of others have been abducted.
6. There is a shadow war being fought, not sure who will win in the end but it’s certain the Americans are going to lose this 2021 round of the shadow war; but just because the Americans are losing, it does not mean victory for Iran.
7. Once an almost daily occurrence in Baghdad, large bomb attacks have slowed since ISIL was defeated on the battlefield in 2017. Daesh is an acronym of ISIL's Arabic name al-Dawlah al-Islamīyah fī l-ʻIrāq wa-sh-Shām. Dāʿish. This name has been widely used by ISIL's Arabic-speaking detractors, as it is considered derogatory. This name resembles the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes, something underfoot") and Dāhis (loosely translated: "one who sows discord").
1. On 19 Jul 2021, a suicide bomber killed at least 35 people and wounded 60, in the Wahailat market in Sadr City (near Iraq’s capital Baghdad), on the eve of the Eid al-Adha festival.bloody attack sparked a furious response from Iraqis on social media.
"Terrorism and the government’s failure keep on stealing our lives," tweeted Alaa Sattar, a youth activist. "The authorities have nothing but condolences to dole out and empty investigative committees."
2. An Iraqi military spokesman said Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi had ordered the arrest of the commander of the federal police regiment in charge of security in the market area, and that an investigation had begun.3. In June 2016, Mustafa al-Khadhimi took over the role of director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service, in light of the intensification of the battles against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS or Daesh). During his tenure, he forged links with dozens of countries and agencies operating within the US-led international coalition against ISIL. Despite being blessed by Iran, Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq are suspicious of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
4. Experts and protestors point at Iran-affiliated militias, accusing them of being responsible for a string of assassinations that mainly targeted activists. Ihab Jawad Al-Wazni, a famous Iraqi activist, was assassinated by unidentified gunmen on 9 May 2021 outside his home in the southern city of Karbala. The murder sparked massive protests in Karbala. Hundreds of people took to the streets in the predominantly Shia city condemning the assassination.
5. Iraqi protesters in Karbala blocked roads and burned tyres. They demanded the Iraqi authorities find out the attackers and reveal their identity to the public. Although Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has vowed to prosecute the attackers, no perpetrator has been brought to justice so far. Dr. Tallha Abdulrazaq, a security expert on the Middle East from the University of Exeter, said that the nature of the killing suggests that pro-Iranian Shia militia groups are behind the assassinations of both Al Wazni and several other prominent Iraqis. Since 2003, according to Abdulrazaq the Shia militias have tracked the killings of those who criticise or oppose them, and Iraq has become a state that serves such extremist groups rather than the local population. “That is precisely why the protesters reacted by attacking the Iranian consulate because everyone knows who's truly responsible,” Abdulrazaq said. Nearly 30 Iraqi activists have been killed by unknown gunmen since 2019 and dozens of others have been abducted.
7. Once an almost daily occurrence in Baghdad, large bomb attacks have slowed since ISIL was defeated on the battlefield in 2017. Daesh is an acronym of ISIL's Arabic name al-Dawlah al-Islamīyah fī l-ʻIrāq wa-sh-Shām. Dāʿish. This name has been widely used by ISIL's Arabic-speaking detractors, as it is considered derogatory. This name resembles the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes, something underfoot") and Dāhis (loosely translated: "one who sows discord").
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Has Boko Haram pledged allegiance to Daesh?