Great updates Feanor. It's still early but everything I been seeing suggests that the majority of the targets were SAAThe picture becomes a little clearer, Russian MoD officially claims that Israel launched 70 missiles at targets in Syria, including Iranian targets, and air defense sites around Damascus. Russian MoD also claims that over half of the inbounds were shot down, with 60 being launched from 28 aircraft (F-16s and F-15s), and 10 being surface-surface missiles. Information on the scope of the damage is still being verified.
The muted Russian reaction, as well as a visit by Netanyahu to Russia on Victory Day (marching in the Immortal Regiment next to Putin, and wearing a St. George ribbon) suggests that there was likely a backroom agreement regarding this strike.
Oddly enough, the Israelis claim to have destroyed an Iranian BM-27 among other targets. Only a few BM-27s are operating in Syria and none of them appear to be Iranian, nor does Iran operate the system elsewhere.
Официальная версия МО РФ
Минобороны РФ заявило, что сирийские ПВО сбили большую часть израильских ракет
Новый сирийско-ирано-израильский раунд
This is one that truly puzzles me. Isn't Russia trying to win influence points over Iran? Putin pretty much gave the green light for this.The muted Russian reaction, as well as a visit by Netanyahu to Russia on Victory Day (marching in the Immortal Regiment next to Putin, and wearing a St. George ribbon) suggests that there was likely a backroom agreement regarding this strike.
A lot of the targets appear to have been air defense sites, suggesting that Syrian air defense hasn't been as inept as one would think.Great updates Feanor. It's still early but everything I been seeing suggests that the majority of the targets were SAA
I can't say I agree with this interpretation. I think that first off Assad has to serve two masters, Russia and Iran. Despite their involvement often being overlooked, Iran did a lot to save the Assad regime, including putting considerable boots on the ground for frontline fighting, something Russia has tried to avoid. Second off Assad is allowing Iran to set up considerable infrastructure in Syria, and isn't doing anything to stop or protect from Israeli strikes. Russia on the other hand it not making him a target, and yet has put in time and effort upgrading his air defenses, as well as being the source of his most successful high-end Pantsyr systems. Assad has some thinking to do about who is more likely to save his ass and keep him in power, and who is likely to simply make him a target.This is one that truly puzzles me. Isn't Russia trying to win influence points over Iran? Putin pretty much gave the green light for this.
I mean, if I was Assad, I probably would have said f*** Putin at least 100 times in my head since this has happened. I can't understand their reasoning for doing this. To USA, the Russians tried to say that they will retaliate if it strikes Syria. To Israel they just give a green light, and actually allow them to do far more damage(from the early reports) than both of the US/NATO Tamahawk strikes.I get that the context is different, and the Tamahawk strikes were for "chemical weapons attacks" but still, it's puzzling.
Again, doesn't this move only push Assad even closer to Iran...the thing Russia does not want?
Outside of getting to sell Syria more Pantsir-S1 systems, Russia lost major points for allowing this IMO.
US Pres Trump just tweeted
Top five ISIS leaders captured.
More to follow
The answer is obvious. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy. Iran is there because Syria has been its only Arab ally for decades [including the 1980's when the Gulf Arabs and the West supported Saddam] and if Syria falls; Iran will not only lose an ally but would be weakened and isolated. Another factor is that IS and groups like it are Iran's natural enemies. Just like how the U.S. waged the ''War On Terror'' [how I detest the term] to prevent terrorists from reaching U.S. shores; Iran seeks to defeat IS and groups like it before they get closer to home. It is often forgotten that Iran too faces terrorism issues at home.You have to wonder is Iran actually in Syria to provide support for Assad or is it there to provide support for Hezbollah.
I'm not sure they make the picture any clearer. Assad has been willing to re-integrate former rebel fighters, granting fairly wide amnesty to non-ISIS fighters who didn't personally participate in atrocities. The White Helmets, even more so, should have been able to stay, and this sort of effort to evacuate them strongly suggests that they have significantly greater ties to the west then merely a popularized civil defense force in rebel-held areas. It also raises some questions. Are these all of them? What happened to the White Helmets elsewhere in Syria? Did they all flee from advancing government forces? If not, were any of the other ones evacuated?It appears that the US, Canada, UK, and Israel are working towards evacuating some members of the White Helmets and their families from portions of southern Syria. As part of this, it appears the plan is to resettle the evacuees in Europe and/or Canada.
US, allies set to evacuate Syrian aid workers from southwest
Israel Is Evacuating Hundreds of White Helmets Rescue Workers From Syria
These stories do seem to seriously counter some of the previous suggestions by pro-Assad/Russian sources that the White Helmets are terrorists and/or affiliated with daesh, since elements that are being evacuated have been trapped between pro-Assad and pro-Islamic State forces, and the border with Israel.
More hostile then he has been to actual rebel fighters? I find this hard to swallow. White Helmet leadership - maybe. But rank and file rescue workers from the local communities? (assuming this is what the bulk of the White Helmets consist if) I rather doubt it. Some elements of the rebel forces are actually being re-integrated into the Syrian government as armed militia. In other words some of the rebel groups aren't even truly disarming. Compared to this level of tolerance (likely prompted by Russia in light of their experience in Chechnya), I can't help but wonder about what's happening with the White Helmets. It looks strange, and the information we have is awfully fragmented.AFAIK Assad has been consistently hostile to the White Helmets.
If one looks at the propaganda campaign that seems to have been getting waged against the White Helmets, attempting to have people associate White Helmets/their membership with that of the Islamic State, and/or attempting to get people to believe that the White Helmets are assets of foreign military or intelligence agencies (but not Russian or Iranian military/intelligence) then the animosity is clearly visible.More hostile then he has been to actual rebel fighters? I find this hard to swallow. White Helmet leadership - maybe. But rank and file rescue workers from the local communities? (assuming this is what the bulk of the White Helmets consist if) I rather doubt it. Some elements of the rebel forces are actually being re-integrated into the Syrian government as armed militia. In other words some of the rebel groups aren't even truly disarming. Compared to this level of tolerance (likely prompted by Russia in light of their experience in Chechnya), I can't help but wonder about what's happening with the White Helmets. It looks strange, and the information we have is awfully fragmented.
One possible reason is that they exemplify civil society independent of the regime. When protests against the Assads & their government began, the first opposition groups they moved against weren't Sunni extremists or violent rebels, but democratic groups, whether secular or moderately religious.More hostile then he has been to actual rebel fighters? I find this hard to swallow. White Helmet leadership - maybe. But rank and file rescue workers from the local communities? (assuming this is what the bulk of the White Helmets consist if) I rather doubt it. Some elements of the rebel forces are actually being re-integrated into the Syrian government as armed militia. In other words some of the rebel groups aren't even truly disarming. Compared to this level of tolerance (likely prompted by Russia in light of their experience in Chechnya), I can't help but wonder about what's happening with the White Helmets. It looks strange, and the information we have is awfully fragmented.
Between shitty intelligence, inaccurate dumb bombs, pilot error, and a rebel force that doesn't wear uniforms and often blends in with the civilian populace, it would be a hard case to make. Add to that, in some cases abandoned medical facilities being used by the rebels as strong points or bases (a certain hospital in Aleppo comes to mind) and it becomes even murkier. Though common sense and a look at some of the information coming out strongly suggests that you're right. I think that much greater crimes against humanity will likely being once the war ends, and Assad is solidly in power. I suspect that many of those who are currently taking the amnesty and laying down their arms will not fare well in the medium term. Personally I wouldn't trust the government's word on that.I agree with swerve, Assad has deliberately targeted them and the hospitals that they operated. Such actions are against the rules of war and can be classified as crimes against humanity.
The targeting of functioning hospitals is not a particularly difficult case to make. Nor is the use of heli-bourne chemical weapons and dispersal systems.Between shitty intelligence, inaccurate dumb bombs, pilot error, and a rebel force that doesn't wear uniforms and often blends in with the civilian populace, it would be a hard case to make. Add to that, in some cases abandoned medical facilities being used by the rebels as strong points or bases (a certain hospital in Aleppo comes to mind) and it becomes even murkier. Though common sense and a look at some of the information coming out strongly suggests that you're right. I think that much greater crimes against humanity will likely being once the war ends, and Assad is solidly in power. I suspect that many of those who are currently taking the amnesty and laying down their arms will not fare well in the medium term. Personally I wouldn't trust the government's word on that.
EDIT: Completely unrelated to the White Helmets, but an interesting read on the impact the Syrian campaign is having and will likely have on Russian military thought and planning.