War Against ISIS

[Todjaeger]

Thanks a lot Todjaeger and Feanor for explaining the system to me.

I had no clue the S-300/400 system has so many pieces, and rugged terrain like the Syrian one ads even more to the number of components you need to add to the system.

Honestly I thought that once you activate the system, it automatically has a long range bubble. Had no clue you have to build around it with extra components to actually build that bubble.

It is not that the S-300 or S-400 systems have so many pieces, but that a properly designed and implemented IADS does, with units like S-300 or S-400 battalions have a potential place as part of the IADS. A typical battalion would have several missile transport/launch vehicles, a command vehicle and one or more radar units. Now the radar units themselves are capable of detecting a target from a long distance, as long as the target is at high altitude (so the radar horizon is not an issue). RCS reduction efforts and other LO features will of course negatively impact a SAM unit's ability to detect a target, but if the target is below the radar horizon from the SAM's radars, it does not matter how capable the radar is, the target would not be detected.

Using Damascus as an example, if there was an air search radar located at the Mezze Air base (approx. 740 m above sea level) the radar would be unable to detect something flying at 1,000 m above sea level over Ghazze which is about 45 km away to the northwest. This is because there are several lines of mountainous terrain which raise the altitude required to be above the radar horizon. An object 1,000 m above sea level could normally be seen a fairly long way off, but if there is a mountain which is 1,600 m between the observer and the target...

A potential way around this would be to establish radar 'pickets' atop exterior high points and link them, but due to the regional terrain there would still be difficulties.

 

[Feanor]

Russian MinDef has presented fragments of downed cruise missiles from the recent strike. They also issued a statement saying the strike had a achieved a total of 22 impacts, which sounds plausible given the damage we've seen to the sites that were struck. Also apparently 1 Tomahawk and one unspecified air-launched cruise missile fell during the strike, and are being handed over to Russia for study. At this rate, the US is going to have some egg on its face, over claiming that all missiles struck their targets.

22 из 105

 

[John Fedup]

Fake fragments to go with fake news. Hard to believe what anyone says or shows these days. I think the main point is very little was really accomplished after spending at least $100 million for this attack, not to mention all the logistic and planning costs that would have been required.

 

[John Fedup]

This article further confirms how Syria is really becoming a proving ground for new technologies and for the first time in quite awhile the US is being confronted with near-peer EW.

Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s In Syria

 

[Feanor]

Russian MinDef made a presentation with updated data on the alleged intercepts of US, British, and French, cruise missiles. Links below have ample photos of fragments.

Слайды брифинга МО РФ про трехстороннюю агрессию 14 апреля на Сирию с показом уцелевших обломков
США не увидели никаких доказательств тому, что крылатые ракеты «Томагавк» не долетели до цели
Фотографии фрагментов сбитых крылатых ракет

 

[Lcf]

Russian MinDef made a presentation with updated data on the alleged intercepts of US, British, and French, cruise missiles. Links below have ample photos of fragments.

Слайды брифинга МО РФ про трехстороннюю агрессию 14 апреля на Сирию с показом уцелевших обломков
США не увидели никаких доказательств тому, что крылатые ракеты «Томагавк» не долетели до цели
Фотографии фрагментов сбитых крылатых ракет

Is that what fragments of an intercepted missile(s) would look like? Personally I wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a fragment of an intercepted missile compared to a fragment of a missile that hit its target successfully. Can someone here with more experience comment?

 

[ngatimozart]

This article further confirms how Syria is really becoming a proving ground for new technologies and for the first time in quite awhile the US is being confronted with near-peer EW.

Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s In Syria

Near pear EW I would say that Russia and probably China are well ahead of the US in EW capability at the moment.

 

[Feanor]

Near pear EW I would say that Russia and probably China are well ahead of the US in EW capability at the moment.

It depends on what you look at. OKR Prorubschik seems to be complete, but so far only 3 aircraft have been equipped (the Il-22PP upgrade). Similarly, Russia only has two large modern ELINT planes, the Tu-214R, and while there is unconfirmed information that a third one is on the way, the pace if glacial. On the flip side, the deployment of Khibiny EW pods is fast, with them integrated on nearly all new and upgraded aircraft (the MiG-31BM seems to be the only exception) and ground-based EW systems are being deployed in much larger quantities then the US. Also there are tactical EW systems mounted on short-range UAVs. Certainly their use of EW to defend Khmeimeem from drone strikes is impressive.

 

[Boagrius]

I wonder what systems have been causing the greatest issues... Perhaps ground based Krasukha-4 et al? I am not aware of a US analogue to something like this.

 

[gazzzwp]

The Assad versus the rebels episode of the conflict may be nearly over, but there is a high likelihood that the conflict will move into another episode as Iran gains a bigger foothold in the region in all likelihood to launch operations against Israel.

Israel in turn has threatened to go for Iran directly if this happens. That in turn will give the US a bigger role and that may be one of the prime reasons for the USM convincing Trump of the need to stay.

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-...ikely-conflict-between-Israel-and-Iran-552864

Israel at least is convinced that Russia is about to ship more SA missiles into the area to deter their own as well as future western attacks.

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Russia-likely-to-deliver-S-300-missiles-to-Syria-552709

 

[gazzzwp]

The Assad versus the rebels episode of the conflict may be nearly over, but there is a high likelihood that the conflict will move into another episode as Iran gains a bigger foothold in the region in all likelihood to launch operations against Israel.

Israel in turn has threatened to go for Iran directly if this happens. That in turn will give the US a bigger role and that may be one of the prime reasons for the USM convincing Trump of the need to stay.

Mattis, receiving Liberman, warns of ‘likely’ conflict between Israel and Iran

Israel at least is convinced that Russia is about to ship more SA missiles into the area to deter their own as well as future western attacks.

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Russia-likely-to-deliver-S-300-missiles-to-Syria-552709

More action to report.

No one seems quite sure at this stage who or what was responsible. The Russians suspect an air strike, suggesting that it was an Israeli strike in Hama and Aleppo.

No doubt more information will be imminent. High number of Iranian fatalities according to BBC.

'Dozens die' as missiles hit Syria sites

 

[STURM]

for the first time in quite awhile the US is being confronted with near-peer EW.

The Russians are certainly making it a priority to improve their EW capability but I'm not sure how their EW capability was measured in relation to that of the U.S. during the Cold War.

Russian Operations, Exercises Have Better Integrated Electronic Warfare - USNI News

Modern Russian Electronic Warfare | SITREP

Russian Electronic Warfare Targets NATO Assets

The Assad versus the rebels episode of the conflict may be nearly over, but there is a high likelihood that the conflict will move into another episode as Iran gains a bigger foothold in the region in all likelihood to launch operations against Israel.

What will Iran gain from directly launching attacks against Israel from Syrian soil? In short, nothing. It will open up Syria to Israeli retaliation and Iranian ties with Russia will suffer. The Israelis might also decide to have another go at Hezbollah and that will not be to Iran's advantage. We can argue that the Israelis are actually hoping Iran will launch attacks as Israel will then have the pretext to cause serious damage to Assad's military and Iranian facilities in the country.

Before assuming that Iran might do what you suggested; first ask what Israel wants and why Arab Sunni countries are so determined to limit the spread of Iranian influence in Syria. The fact remains that Iran has long had a foothold in the region [namely in Lebanon over the past decades] and Iran has been a Syrian ally since the 1980's. Also take note that despite what the U.S. and Israel threaten to do; their actions will be based on how the Russians will react. It's not like in the past when both countries could do what they wanted without seriously taking into account how another outside player might react.

Israel in turn has threatened to go for Iran directly if this happens. That in turn will give the US a bigger role and that may be one of the prime reasons for the USM convincing Trump of the need to stay.

The result will be the U.S. being dragged into a conflict due to actions undertaken by an ally. It will indeed give the U.S. a bigger role but it will create more trouble in an already unstable region and will not benefit the U.S. It will benefit Israel and the Gulf Arabs though.

What mysteries lie in the ruins of the Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus?

''And does it matter? Well, yes. I am reminded of the much more famous Iraqi “baby milk factory” bombed by the Americans in 1991 which General Colin Powell called “a biological weapons factory, of that we are sure”. My colleague Patrick Cockburn wrote of this last week, recalling his visit to the factory only hours after the bombing. After the war, it turned out that the building probably had been an infant formula factory after all – although what can’t you do with a glass of milk? ''

''The problem is that while we believe all Arab dictators regularly lie, we Western folk are supposed to hold our own leaders to account – and ensure that they tell the truth when they claim to act on our behalf. That’s why the Douma attack must be fully explained, and that’s why I wanted to know if this wreckage in Barzeh (the direct response to Douma, although of course no one was killed in Barzeh) was what we said it was, or whether it was what the Syrians claimed it to be – a medical research facility. Was the lion smiling at me? Or was I misinterpreting the meaning of its face?''

The US needs a Syria strategy | The Strategist

''The West has utterly failed to rise to this challenge. On the contrary, Trump is about to withdraw the remaining US troops from Syria, arguing that their main objective—defeating the Islamic State (ISIS)—has been achieved. Yet, while ISIS had to be stopped, it was never the West’s most formidable enemy in Syria; that title goes to the axis of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime—an axis against which ISIS was actually a counterbalancing force.''

''The last time a US president boastfully proclaimed ‘mission accomplished’ was in 2003, when George W. Bush, just six weeks after invading Iraq, declared that major combat operations there had ended. Instead, those operations lasted eight more years, and US troops remain in Iraq to this day. Trump failed to heed that historical lesson, which suggests that, like Bush, he doesn’t know what the mission is.''

Israel’s strategy of banking on a muted Iranian response in Syria may backfire

''But if the Israeli air war in Syria continues and begins to affect the balance of power in the seven-year civil war, then Iran will certainly retaliate. Iranian reaction to developments affecting its interests in the Middle East – such as the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 – have tended in the past to be long delayed but effective.''

''If sustained, it could draw in Hezbollah in Lebanon which has been an important ally of Assad. The US may back a more aggressive Israeli posture in Syria, but the single-minded obsession of the Trump administration with Iran as the source of all instability in the Middle East is dangerously simple-minded and injects more instability into a region already deeply unstable.''

 

[STURM]

What happens with Iran over the nuclear will have a big impact on what happens in Syria. The U.S. seems to be slowly building up a case against Iran; a sort of pre warning over what most believe will be Trump's decision to pull out of the deal. Reminds me of the run up to the invasion of Iraq when the U.S. and Britain went all out to convince the world that Saddam had nukes, was intent on threatening his neighbours and was consorting with terrorists [all turned out to be untrue]. The EU and the IAEA are adamant that Iran has keep to the deal with the U.S. and Israel [no surprises] saying otherwise.

The question remains : if the U.S. does pull out of the deal; is it because it truly believes that the deal is flawed and that the Iranians are hiding something or is it because of other reasons? It is part of an overall strategy [together with Israel and the Gulf states] aimed at further isolating and weakening an Iran which has become a more active regional player [thanks to U.S. policies]? Israel [to be expected] wants to retain its nuclear monopoly and also sees the nuclear deal as a way of adding pressure on Iran over its involvement in Syria and Lebanon; the U.S. having a go at Iran will be to Israel's advantage.
The North Koreans will be watching with great interest. That's for sure.

Iran nuclear deal built on lies, says US

Iran: Netanyahu's 'lies' aimed at influencing Trump

Interesting article on Iranian involvement in Syria. No surprises, as the war drags on Iranian citizens are questioning why their country is still involved in Syria.

Iran: Fighting 'terror' publicly, mourning the dead secretly

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Syrian bases near Hama and Aleppo were hit by what appears to be an Israeli airstrike with GBU-39s the munition of choice. Details are lacking but it appears a weapons shipment from Iran was the target. It's pretty clear that the Israelis consider anything that would allow Syria to challenge them militarily, as a fair target. These strikes also continue to highlight the weakness of Syrian air defense, whatever Russia says.

Oddly enough one of the targets appears to have been a civilian auto mechanic. Of course the building could have been used for other things as well.

Удары по Хаме и Алеппо. Подробности
Для ударов по Сирии использовались GBU-39
ВВС Израиля нанесли удар в ночь на 30 апреля из боевых порядков ВВС США в зоне Заевфратья
Израильские удары по сирийским складам около Хамы и Алеппо вечером 29 апреля
Опять в Сирии что-то взрывается
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/795242.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1968758.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1969347.html

The assault on Yarmuk is continuing. It looks like this pocket of ISIS resistance will be crushed, with other groups getting ready for green buses to Idlib.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/796040.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4158692.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4155187.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4151481.html

The Ar-Rastan pocket is close to falling. They've requested a cease-fire to negotiate, and some sources indicate the rebels are asking for Russian military police to facilitate a potential handover. This would be fairly common based on recent cases.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4158824.html

There have been clashes east of the Euphrates between a Syrian militia and the US-backed Kurds. The Syrians took 4 villages, then lost them again. In my opinion this is a dangerous game, and I'm hoping it's Syrian militias trying to take the initiative rather then a planned and systematic test of Kurdish resolve coming from higher up.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4155721.html
https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...advance-against-us-backed-in-east-deir-ezzor/

Eastern Kalamoun is done, the pocket was hit hard, and consequently has capitulated under conditions of evacuation to Idlib. Mountains of equipment have been surrendered, including a huge quantity of tanks and armored vehicles.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4146169.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3168528.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4134967.html

With coordination from the joint center in Baghdad, Iraqi F-16s have struck targets in Syria. The targets were ISIS positions on the Iraqi-Syrian border.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/722534.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3167502.html

Up close photos of UXO, a Russian free-fall bomb, and a barrel bomb.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1974000.html

Satellite photos of Khmeimeem show:
12 Su-34
9 Su-24
3 Su-25
4 Su-30
4 Su-35
2 Il-76
1 An-26
1 An-30
2 А-50
1 Il-38
1 Il-22
1 An-124
2 С-130 (Iranian)
3 MiG-29 (Syrian)

It appears Syrian and Iranian aircraft are hiding there.

Also, the Su-25SM3, the Il-38, an AVMF Su-30SM, and the Tor-M2 have all showed up at Khmeimeem. Unlike the Pantsyr, the Tor has a larger engagement envelope and adds another layer to the air defense. Their ability to integrate with the S-300/400 SAM family has been confirmed in the past. In light of regular UAV raids against Khmeimeem, as well as the unstable international situation this deployment both makes the base harder to attack, and gives them a chance to test the system against real targets.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4157739.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1969081.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3179127.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3179492.html
https://ecoross1.livejournal.com/716218.html

Israel has publicly presented accusations that Iran has continued a secret nuclear weapons program. The veracity and accuracy of the claims remains up in the air. So far neither the IAEA nor the EU have corroborated this. Meanwhile the Israeli stock market has reacted poorly to this presentation.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4158407.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1975547.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/795460.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1968402.html

In Iraq trials continue on ISIS collaborators, including a number of women from the former Soviet Union. A number of them have gotten life in prison, a relatively tame sentence considering the circumstances.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4155405.html

A curious piece of equipment has surfaced during preparations for the Victory Day parade in Moscow. This UAV is called Corsair, it's a UCAV (and if it's in service, it's the first in Russia) carrying Ataka ATGMs. The stars mirror similar symbols painted on aircraft that have flown combat missions in Syria. It's possible that Russia has tested this UCAV in Syria.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_706306

Photos of Russian service members in Syria, spring 2018.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4152037.html

Syria's ambassador in Russia said that S-300s have already been supplied to Syria, and are being used. Russia quickly denied this. If true, which is far from confirmed, it could partially explain the alleged large numbers of downed Syrian missiles, the S-300 is definitely capable of it, and if integrated with the Buk-M2, and the Pantsyr-S1, makes for a serious obstacle. A reminder, Russia currently claims that they have registered 22 impacts from US and allied strikes on Syria.

https://twower.livejournal.com/2256059.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4145770.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4146188.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/782907.html

The Syrian express continues its work, with both equipment for Assad, and for Russian units rotating in and out.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4147366.html

It appears that a Russian MinDef facility near Krasnodar has been identified as a staging area for Russian PMCs returning from Syria.

http://classic.newsru.com/russia/25apr2018/molkino.html

A new US base is allegedly being built in Syria between Tell Baydar and Tell Tamr.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1929789.html

There seems to be an effort underway to move the question of Syrian chemical weapon use from the Security Council to the General Assembly, to bypass Russia's veto. Though it remains to be seen whether the General Assembly will prove more amenable.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/25apr2018/unassembly.html

Some data on Iraqi air power and sortie rates. If someone wants a translation, please ask, I can translate the Russian part of the post.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3171676.html

OPCW inspectors have finally visited Douma, after many delays. It remains to be seen whether they can find anything.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/21apr2018/douma.html

 

[Ranger25]

Anyone else read any updates relating to this? Suggests ISF F15Is mask their route by blending with coalition aircraft. If thinly would have been done with at least coalition knowledge


Let's Talk About This Rumor That Israeli F-15s Mimicked US Jets To Strike At Iran In Syria

 

[John Fedup]

Here is another article that appeared yesterday.

Did Israel Really Spoof U.S. Warplanes to Strike Iranian Targets in Syria?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Israelis seem to have begun a major series of strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. There are reports of downed missiles with the first wave of 5 missiles having either 2 or 3 reported shot down.

There is information on an Iranian counter-strike with 20 missiles/rockets against targets on the Golan heights.

Иранские военные выпустили 20 ракет по территории Израиля в районе Голанских высот
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/812386.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/812620.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/08may2018/alkiswe.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2014420.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/809785.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/810412.html

Meanwhile the Syrians continue the push into Yarmuk, with only a small pocket of ISIS forces left there.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/727411.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4168248.html

The Ar-Rastan pocket seems to be finished, they are surrendering heavy equipment, and Russian MPs are facilitating the handover. Interestingly enough the fighting was minimal, the pocket surrendered as soon as it became clear that they were the next target.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4169881.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4170899.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4166042.html

A Russian Ka-52 went down in Deyr-ez-Zor province. Russia claims technical failure as the preliminary reason, while rumors circulate about hostile fire, possible a Zu-23-2, bringing it down. Both of the pilots reportedly died.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2014082.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/810178.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/07may2018/ka52.html

A Russian Su-30SM crashed in Syria, shortly after taking off from Khmeimeem, into the Mediterranean sea. A bird caught in one of the engines is the leading theory but details are lacking.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4165320.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1992555.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/03may2018/su30.html

British UAV has used a munition with a thermobaric warhead in Syria.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1993453.html

Up close photos of battle damage to an up-armored Zu-23-4.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/809094.html

Shots of a T-72AV upgraded with "gilette" armor panels.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/809273.html

Some SAA MLRS units.

https://strangernn.livejournal.com/1727082.html

Some information on the use of Belarussian EW in Syria, by Assad's forces.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2004283.html

Trump has exited the nuclear deal with Iran.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/08may2018/deal.html

A Russian MVD SpetzNaz team has arrived in Syria.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_719230

A Swedish ELINT aircraft, the S102B Korpen was spotted off the coast of Syria.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3186191.html

Some leaders of Jaesh al Islam reportedly ran off with the organizations funds, to safety in Turkey, where they're starting a restaurant business.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4170702.html

There are reports that the despite the defeat of all major ISIS formations, an ISIS insurgency is gaining momentum in Iraq.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4170472.html

The US is shutting down financing of the white helmets.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4166243.html

The OPCW will be exhuming the bodies of alleged victims of chemical weapons attack in Duma.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1987211.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/04may2018/exhumation.html

A bellingcat article on chemical weapon use in Syria.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...-syrias-chlorine-bombs-douma-chemical-attack/

A Russian Pantsyr-S1 got into a car accident in Syria, tipping over into a ditch.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/05/1-6560.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Great post. Thanks Feanor. A ZSU 23-2 would wreck anyones day. The ZSU 23-4 even more.

 

[Feanor]

Great post. Thanks Feanor. A ZSU 23-2 would wreck anyones day. The ZSU 23-4 even more.

If it turns out to be true, this would highlight the biggest weakness of the Ka-52. It's much lighter armored. The Ka-52 is a more complete platform then the Mi-28N that has a slew of problems, and started out with a functioning radar (something the Mi-28 is only now getting). There were some delays with the Vikhr missiles, but it's ability to use Ataka ATGMs meant the issue wasn't critical. The performance of the Ka-52 has been so good that an additional contract for iirc 114 of them was placed, meaning they will likely outnumber the Mi-28 (though maybe not, if a big contract is placed for the Mi-28NM).

 

[Feanor]

The picture becomes a little clearer, Russian MoD officially claims that Israel launched 70 missiles at targets in Syria, including Iranian targets, and air defense sites around Damascus. Russian MoD also claims that over half of the inbounds were shot down, with 60 being launched from 28 aircraft (F-16s and F-15s), and 10 being surface-surface missiles. Information on the scope of the damage is still being verified.

The muted Russian reaction, as well as a visit by Netanyahu to Russia on Victory Day (marching in the Immortal Regiment next to Putin, and wearing a St. George ribbon) suggests that there was likely a backroom agreement regarding this strike.

Oddly enough, the Israelis claim to have destroyed an Iranian BM-27 among other targets. Only a few BM-27s are operating in Syria and none of them appear to be Iranian, nor does Iran operate the system elsewhere.

Официальная версия МО РФ
Минобороны РФ заявило, что сирийские ПВО сбили большую часть израильских ракет
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/729850.html