War Against ISIS

[STURM]

It'll be interesting to find out what shot down the F-16 : flak or a missile? If it was a missile; what kind of missile was it and what altitude was the plane at when it was hit?

It's surprising that the IDF has confirmed that the F-16 was shot down. They could have easily said that the crew ejected after experiencing technical issues with their aircraft. Luckily for them, the crew was over Israel when they ejected; the Israelis have found out the hard way that retaliatory strikes have almost never resulted in prisoners being returned.

Meanwhile it's been confirmed that the Russian Frogfoot was hit by a MANPADs/V-SHORADs.

Russia sees foreign hands behind Syrian misfortunes | Jane's 360

 

[Feanor]

I think the Israelis did initially try to claim a technical failure. Also there are unconfirmed reports that an F-15 was damaged, and made an emergency landing on it's way back to base, and that as many as 3 other aircraft were damaged by ground fire. It appears the whole incident began with an Iranian UAV that was in Israeli airspace, and the Israelis decided to also hit the command post for the UAV, losing an F-16 in the process. This then led to a retaliation strike against Syrian air defense positions, and a hasty phone call to Moscow.

Кроме потерянного F-16 и погибшего летчика, F-15 ВВС Израиля совершил аварийную посадку после боя
Израильская версия ударов, нанесенных по объектам ПВО Сирии 10 февраля 2018 г.

Honestly, rising tensions between Iran-Syria and Israel are inevitable. I hope Russia has the good sense to stay out of this, especially given their connections with Israel.

 

[Feanor]

It appears that Russian PMCs and possibly Russian SoF were in the Syrian convoy that got hit by US Arty and helo strikes near Deir-ez-Zor. It remains to be seen what Russia's response is.

Цена нефти

 

[Feanor]

It appears that Russian PMCs and possibly Russian SoF were in the Syrian convoy that got hit by US Arty and helo strikes near Deir-ez-Zor. It remains to be seen what Russia's response is.

Цена нефти

 

[ngatimozart]

An article from the Lowy Institute Interpreter regarding the latest Israeli strike and F-16 shoot-down on Syria it's possible implications.

Israel strikes Syria, loses a fighter, and maybe something more

 

[STURM]

I hope Russia has the good sense to stay out of this, especially given their connections with Israel.

The problem for the Russians is that they can't allow a situation to arise where continued Israeli military action against Syria undermines Assad's government or effects Syria's ability to deal with IS. There is also a limit on how much influence the Russians can exert on Iran given that the Russians also benefit from the Iranian presence in Syria, when it comes to combating IS.

A lot depends on what the Israelis want. In the past they were contend with having the Baathists in power because they knew that the main priority for the Assad's was regime survival; not regaining the Golan by force. That has not changed; even if Assad recovers all the territory he lost and completely defeats all his enemies; it's not as if he's going to focus entirely on Israel next and neither will the Iranians.

With regards to the Iranian UAS over Israel [if indeed it was Iranian], I'm not quire sure what effect this was intended to achieve - why antagonise the Israelis? Of course if the UAS was over the Golan the Syrians and Iranians could fall back on the position that the Golan is Syrian territory illegally occupied by Israel.

Netanyahu: Air raids dealt serious blow to Iran, Syria

The Israelis have declared that the F-16 was hit by a missile.

 

[Feanor]

The problem for the Russians is that they can't allow a situation to arise where continued Israeli military action against Syria undermines Assad's government or effects Syria's ability to deal with IS. There is also a limit on how much influence the Russians can exert on Iran given that the Russians also benefit from the Iranian presence in Syria, when it comes to combating IS.

I mean, ISIS is basically gone. But you have a point regarding Assad staying in power. That having been said, I don't think that Assad is going to lose power because of a handful of Israeli airstrikes. They're certainly bad but not "fall of the regime" bad.

A lot depends on what the Israelis want. In the past they were contend with having the Baathists in power because they knew that the main priority for the Assad's was regime survival; not regaining the Golan by force. That has not changed; even if Assad recovers all the territory he lost and completely defeats all his enemies; it's not as if he's going to focus entirely on Israel next and neither will the Iranians.

I think Israel is afraid that the result of this war will be a greater-than-ever Iranian presence near them. Which it probably will be. Which is rather ironic given that Israel contributed to stirring the Syrian pot and is now facing the geopolitical consequences.

With regards to the Iranian UAS over Israel [if indeed it was Iranian], I'm not quire sure what effect this was intended to achieve - why antagonise the Israelis? Of course if the UAS was over the Golan the Syrians and Iranians could fall back on the position that the Golan is Syrian territory illegally occupied by Israel.

Maybe the Iranians were trying to provoke the Israelis. Given how (relatively) well the Syrian IADS responded to this air raid, they may have been preparing for sort of scenario.

 

[Ranger25]

I mean, ISIS is basically gone. But you have a point regarding Assad staying in power. That having been said, I don't think that Assad is going to lose power because of a handful of Israeli airstrikes. They're certainly bad but not "fall of the regime" bad.



I think Israel is afraid that the result of this war will be a greater-than-ever Iranian presence near them. Which it probably will be. Which is rather ironic given that Israel contributed to stirring the Syrian pot and is now facing the geopolitical consequences.



Maybe the Iranians were trying to provoke the Israelis. Given how (relatively) well the Syrian IADS responded to this air raid, they may have been preparing for sort of scenario.

There has been some conjecture that the Iranians did just that. Drone intended to provoke a response and the mobile SAMs waiting in place to ambush the inbound response aircraft

 

[Feanor]

There has been some conjecture that the Iranians did just that. Drone intended to provoke a response and the mobile SAMs waiting in place to ambush the inbound response aircraft

Which would almost make the Israelis look live victims if it weren't for the fact that even their first strike that night was deep into Syrian airspace, hitting T4 airbase. If the Iranians did provoke this, they certainly got hit hard for it.

 

[STURM]

The Iranians would have been expecting an Israeli response so it's probably questionable as to how much damage the Israelis actually caused.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

There are reports that during the first strike 8 out of 11 Israeli cruise missiles were destroyed, and during the retaliation strike 5 out of 7. Also that the only Israeli aircraft to enter Syrian airspace was the one that was shot down, and an Apache helo was also destroyed. Personally I find these claims dubious but on the flip side, with Pantsyr-S1 systems in play, it's likely that some cruise missiles were shot down. The narrative is further disputed by the Israelis saying that a second aircraft was targeted by a SAM but managed to evade it, and a total of 20 surface to air missiles were launched against the Israeli aircraft (presumably aircraft and missiles).

ПВО Сирии сбила 13 из 18 крылатых ракет, выпущенных ВВС Израиля в двух налетах, и F-16I
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3090925.html
ПВО Сирии сбила израильский F-16
Израильский истребитель F-16I сбит сирийской ПВО
Коротко по Сирии. 10.02.2018

Regarding the strike of the Syrian, and Russian PMC column in Deyr ez Zor, the US says they used B-52s, as well as AC-130s, and Apache attack helos. They reiterate the claim that the Russo-Syrian forces attacked first, and that they confirmed with Russia that no Russian service members were in the area. Interestingly enough they claim that they halted their attack when the Syrians turned around, while reports from the Syrian side claim otherwise, but these are details. The bigger issue is the lack of reaction from Russia. It appears that Russian PMCs maybe have gotten involved in a Syrian project involving local militias, to seize a contested oil field without the knowledge or involvement of the Russian military. The third link has footage of part of the US strike.

Meanwhile, as the bodies of the slain contractors arrive in Russia, the Duma has resumed discussions around a law governing PMCs, who are currently all but illegal in Russia. The total casualty count is unclear, with the high numbers being ~600 (which is unlikely, in fact other reports put the entire formation that was hit at only ~500 strong), while the low estimate is 5 confirmed by name. Sources close to the Baltic Cossacks claim "tens" killed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3994713.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/14feb2018/vagner.html?utm_source=tema-main
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1622310.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/13feb2018/syriataman.html?utm_source=tema-main
http://www.kazak39.com/news/vechnaya-pamyat-0
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/13feb2018/syriataman.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3990824.html

Remnants of ISIS have broken out of the Dakhur pocket, under SAA fire, with the tail of the column getting hit pretty hard. Presumably they were allowed to do this to enable them to keep hitting the other rebels.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3985010.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3982998.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_582228

A Turkish UAV was downed in the Afrin pocket, this comes after the loss of a Turkish T-129 attack helo. One has to wonder whose MANPADS the Kurds are using.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/705950.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3089932.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3984650.html

Allegedly, a list of Turkish casualties in the Afrin.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3988810.html

Allegedly an image of the Tafun-K 4X4 MRAP in Syria.

https://dambiev.livejournal.com/1086522.html

Satellite imagery of a Turkish base in western Aleppo province. This might partially mark the line between Turkish and Russo-Iranian influence zones around north-western Syria.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1620317.html

The Iraqis say that rebuilding after their war with ISIS will cost 88 billion dollars.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/12feb2018/iraq88.html

Human Rights Watch is accusing the Kurds of executing captured ISIS fighters. While the Kurds deny this, it's not unlikely.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3983774.html

 

[STURM]

Following the loss of the F-16, Israel [to me at least] has been pretty quiet. I was expecting a whole round of retaliatory strikes on Syrian AD positions, as well as Iranian targets. Remains to be seen what Israel and countries like Saudi will do next as part of their efforts to weaken or topple Assad. It also remains to be seen what Russia will do if moves future moves undertaken start to have a serious effect on Assad. Assad seeks to consolidate his recent wins and to focus on regaining whatever territory's still held by his opponents. The last thing he needs is to be distracted from a new round of tensions on his border with Israel - unless of course if he knows that there's a limit to what Israel will do due to the Russian factor.

Despite this new era of 'friendship' between Israel and Saudi; I can't help thinking that both countries want slightly different things. Israel wants Assad to stay in power; a weak Assad who is not in control of most his territory. It's focus is and always has been Iran. Saudi on the other hand wants Assad gone and also for Iran to be weakened, whether by military or diplomatic means.

Andreas Kreig, a defence and security analyst, told Al Jazeera there was a strategic alignment between former foes, Israel and Saudi Arabia, vis-a-vis Iran. "There's a lot of tension in the Middle East and the tension now is not so much between Israel and the Arab world, but more between those who support Iran and those who are against Iran," said Kreig. "The Saudis are now on the side of the Israelis, trying to somewhat gather support, especially in Washington, DC, for a potential preliminary attack against Iran." Israel and Saudi Arabia's speeches were aimed at garnering support from neoconservatives and Republicans in the US, Kreig said.

Iran denies 'hegemon' plans, denounces Saudi and Israel

 

[cdxbow]

Updates......

Regarding the strike of the Syrian, and Russian PMC column in Deyr ez Zor, the US says they used B-52s, as well as AC-130s, and Apache attack helos. They reiterate the claim that the Russo-Syrian forces attacked first, and that they confirmed with Russia that no Russian service members were in the area. Interestingly enough they claim that they halted their attack when the Syrians turned around, while reports from the Syrian side claim otherwise, but these are details. The bigger issue is the lack of reaction from Russia. It appears that Russian PMCs maybe have gotten involved in a Syrian project involving local militias, to seize a contested oil field without the knowledge or involvement of the Russian military. The third link has footage of part of the US strike.

Polygraph have the audio, subtitled and with transcripts in English If these are to be believed it would put the casualties over 200. Sergey Kim has been identified as the officer in charge - Wagner's failed attack on US forces in Syria 'led by former Russian Marine officer' | KyivPost There is a link there to the original Russian language site that makes the claim.

If the force was 500 or so, these figures suggest about half were killed. I wonder how many of the contractors had previously been 'little green men' in the Ukraine?

 

[Feanor]

Polygraph have the audio, subtitled and with transcripts in English If these are to be believed it would put the casualties over 200. Sergey Kim has been identified as the officer in charge - Wagner's failed attack on US forces in Syria 'led by former Russian Marine officer' | KyivPost There is a link there to the original Russian language site that makes the claim.

If the force was 500 or so, these figures suggest about half were killed. I wonder how many of the contractors had previously been 'little green men' in the Ukraine?

InformNapalm is a garbage tier source (to be fair much of Ukrainian media is little more then a propaganda outlet these days so they're not special in that regard). While the number may be correct, I'd be careful about trusting anything they say without additional sources. Additionally, US Secretary of Defense quoted 257 as the total number of attackers, while Troshev, a figure close to Utkin, said 14 Russian volunteer fighters (добровольцы) were KIA. Triple that for the number of wounded and you have a total of ~60-70 casualties, which is a crippling blow to a force of 257 fighters. If there were Syrians there as well, that could mean an additional body count.

Press Gaggle by Secretary Mattis En Route to Washington, D.C. > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Transcript View
В Сирии погибло 14 человек - руководитель ЧВК "Вагнер" Трошев Андрей

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

A Syrian NDF unit has entered the Afrin pocket, despite a Turkish arty strike, and diplomatic objections from Erdogan, suggesting that things aren't as rosy between Erdogan and Putin as it earlier seemed. Despite earlier clashes between the Kurds and the SAA, these forces were welcomed in the pocket as defenders against Erdogan. Despite this, the Kurds deny there being an agreement on defense plans with Assad.

In the meantime Kurdish fighters and doctors out of Afrin accuse the Turks of using chemical weapons.

Силы NDF вошли в Африн
Встреча в Африне
Сторонники Асада попали под огонь турецких военных при попытке прорваться в Африн
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4006663.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/20feb2018/nodeal.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/17feb2018/chlorine.html

It appears the SAA offensive in Idlib is over for now. Tiger Force is redeploying to Damascus and has begun hitting Eastern Ghouta. This is a large and dangerous pocket of resistance near Damascus, and it appears that it's time has come. As the SAA offensive begins, casualties, including civilians, begin to mount.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/706678.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/19feb2018/ghouta.html

5 Su-35S and apparently 2 Su-57 (PAK-FA) along with an A-50U have been rebased to Syria. Note, the deployment of the PAK-FA requires further confirmation, but if true it's a remarkable situation.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3101271.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3100218.html

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues to make evasive comments about Russian deaths in the recent clash in Deyr ez Zor. The exact body count remains unclear though it's clear the total casualties are in the tens, at least.

http://classic.newsru.com/russia/20feb2018/mid.html?utm_source=tema-main
https://twower.livejournal.com/2231261.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4006596.html

Hangar construction appears to have begun at Khmeimeem. Given recent attacks on the base, hopefully they've learned their lessons and will build proper hardened shelters.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1645901.html

 

[Rimasta]

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues to make evasive comments about Russian deaths in the recent clash in Deyr ez Zor. The exact body count remains unclear though it's clear the total casualties are in the tens, at least.

To me, there is good reason to downplay this as the PMC battalion appeared to have crossed a deconfliction line and reports have many Russian deaths-perhaps as many as a couple hundred-will probably not go down too well back home in Russia. Also, the Pentagon doesn’t feel the need to insists on what happened as they feel the message was sent to Assad/Moscow loud and thunderously clear that US forces, even if it’s a group of SOF and advisory personnel, will defend themselves.

Apparently the PMC’s were hammered pretty damn hard too, if only to send a message. Reports indicate various 4th gen fighters involved, F-22’s, AC-130 ginships, US Marine Rocket and tube artillery, and B-52 strikes followed by AH-64 attack helicopters. Apparently the US goal was to not just drive the battalion away, but to annihilate it to send a message and the remants of the battalion were only allowed to retreat after a 3-hour sustained bombardment crippled it.
Russia isn’t looking to get into WW3 anymore than we are so I think it makes perfect sense why the Kremlin would downplay this incident. Also, these are PMC’s, not Russian grovernment forces, and as you said in a previous post, mercenaries are all but illegal in Russia. So why would Russia go to war over that?

I think to the US they’ve realized, non state actors like this battalion do not have the same sort of diplomatic protections if they get into trouble. If this were say a battalion of Russian paratroopers, we’d probably be looking at a major war about now perhaps, but these were contractors with a level of deniability and I envision that in the future, if American commanders encounter these groups in the open and are engaging them, the results will be the same and they’ll drop the hammer on them. And notice, Russian air forces were not giving that unit air cover it seems, they did not seem to intervene.

Reports: Russian contractors killed by US strike in Syria


Russian military contractors reportedly tried to test the US military in Syria — but they got whooped

 

[gazzzwp]

Updates.



5 Su-35S and apparently 2 Su-57 (PAK-FA) along with an A-50U have been rebased to Syria. Note, the deployment of the PAK-FA requires further confirmation, but if true it's a remarkable situation.

Now confirmed by western media.

Russia's most advanced fighter arrives in Syria - CNNPolitics

How do we read this? Just an opportunity to test a new platform or something more? Are they eager to demonstrate that they have closed the gap with the US stealth fighters?

 

[ASSAIL]

I

Now confirmed by western media.

Russia's most advanced fighter arrives in Syria - CNNPolitics

How do we read this? Just an opportunity to test a new platform or something more? Are they eager to demonstrate that they have closed the gap with the US stealth fighters?

think that makes a good opportunity for the NATO allies to do some assessment.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting decision by the Russians. Huge marketing win if the jets perform well but the reverse could be a disaster for export sales which are very important to Russian military aviation.

 

[Feanor]

Now 4 Su-57 fighters are in Syria, 2 more came with an escort of Su-30SM fighters.To be honest I didn't know there were 4 Su-57s that were full LRIP aircraft rather then just prototypes. They may have been rolled out quietly at KnAAPO. To be honest, this makes sense. The BMPT was tested despite not even being accepted for service with the Russian military, and in general Russia has used Syria as a proving ground for various equipment. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops.

Теперь их стало 4