War Against ISIS

gazzzwp

Member
Turkey doesn’t exclusively use US made equipment for their military. They use many suppliers and have a growing domestic production base
If Turkey does proceed with it's threat today of proceeding all the way to the Iraq border they are taking a massive risk surely? They seem to be gambling that the US is prepared to take a the humiliation after declaring themselves that they are 'in Syria for the long term'.

On the other hand if they try and stop a Turkish advance that put's Turkey's NATO membership in huge doubt (not that they care or NATO cares) and this of course is all bound to keep the Russia, Iran Syria alliance smiling.

Why is it that the US, Turkey and the Kurds cannot agree a final peace deal to prevent what appears to be an imminent catastrophe with a massive escalation of the conflict into the US held region of eastern Syria?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If Turkey does proceed with it's threat today of proceeding all the way to the Iraq border they are taking a massive risk surely? They seem to be gambling that the US is prepared to take a the humiliation after declaring themselves that they are 'in Syria for the long term'.
I don't recall seeing them threaten to proceed to the US border. I think their "best case" scenario would be to kick the Kurds out of Manbij.

On the other hand if they try and stop a Turkish advance that put's Turkey's NATO membership in huge doubt (not that they care or NATO cares) and this of course is all bound to keep the Russia, Iran Syria alliance smiling.
I.e. if the US military tries to stop the Turks? Or if the Kurds do? The former seems unlikely, the latter inevitable but irrelevant to Turkish NATO membership.

Why is it that the US, Turkey and the Kurds cannot agree a final peace deal to prevent what appears to be an imminent catastrophe with a massive escalation of the conflict into the US held region of eastern Syria?
The only peace deal the Turks will take is one where the Kurds are either under the boot of another major power or squashed as an independent political power by Turkey. And of course their preference is for the latter. The US wanted to sit on two chairs and are slowly but surely sliding ass-first into the gap between them. Their idea of a lasting piece is where the Kurds get a little bit of what they want, the Turks get barely anything, and the US gets it all. You need a big stick and the willingness to use it to force that kind of outcome. I certainly don't see it coming about diplomatically. And the Kurds want their own state or the closest thing they can get to it. However they weren't willing to accept Assad, and now Turkey is a stick with Assad as the carrot.

Truth is, the biggest mistake was letting Russia play power broker between the Turks, Assad, Iran, etc. It's pushed the whole conflict into a configuration where if you want something geopolitically in Syria, you negotiate with Russia. Matters certainly weren't helped by the half-ass attempt at independence by the Iraqi Kurds.
 

Redrighthand

New Member
I don't recall seeing them threaten to proceed to the US border. I think their "best case" scenario would be to kick the Kurds out of Manbij.



I.e. if the US military tries to stop the Turks? Or if the Kurds do? The former seems unlikely, the latter inevitable but irrelevant to Turkish NATO membership.



The only peace deal the Turks will take is one where the Kurds are either under the boot of another major power or squashed as an independent political power by Turkey. And of course their preference is for the latter. The US wanted to sit on two chairs and are slowly but surely sliding ass-first into the gap between them. Their idea of a lasting piece is where the Kurds get a little bit of what they want, the Turks get barely anything, and the US gets it all. You need a big stick and the willingness to use it to force that kind of outcome. I certainly don't see it coming about diplomatically. And the Kurds want their own state or the closest thing they can get to it. However they weren't willing to accept Assad, and now Turkey is a stick with Assad as the carrot.

Truth is, the biggest mistake was letting Russia play power broker between the Turks, Assad, Iran, etc. It's pushed the whole conflict into a configuration where if you want something geopolitically in Syria, you negotiate with Russia. Matters certainly weren't helped by the half-ass attempt at independence by the Iraqi Kurds.
I agree with your assessment. The USA has been outplayed in Syria by Russia, right from the get go - from withholding support in the UN Security Council in the early days, through to the support of Assad's regime. Also, with Rojava now under a very left-wing federalist local govt. system, it's going to be difficult for the current US regime to continue supporting them - despite the fact that there's more stability, arguably, since that system was put in place in that region. Once again, I think the Kurds will be left out in the cold. Which will only lead to continued de-stabilisation of the region...
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Why is it that the US, Turkey and the Kurds cannot agree a final peace deal
Because all sides want different things and what one side wants might be detrimental to another side's long term interests.The irony of course is that Turkey and the U.S. are at loggerheads and have troops deployed on the sovereign soil of another country. At least Turkey can give the excuse that it's concerned about what's taking place in its backyard and is merely acting to ''defend'' its borders in response to actions taken by an outside power.
 
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gazzzwp

Member
Because all sides want different things and what one side wants might be detrimental to another side's long term interests.The irony of course is that Turkey and the U.S. are at loggerheads and have troops deployed on the sovereign soil of another country. At least Turkey can give the excuse that it's concerned about what's taking place in its backyard and is merely acting to ''defend'' its borders in response to actions taken by an outside power.
I take a different view. Legitimacy of occupation is subjective. Once could argue that Russia has no right to be in a region supporting a regime that uses WMD on it's people. Iran are there to oppose the Sunni forces that invaded the country and to achieve a strategic edge for a future conflict with Israel. Turkey are using the excuse of trying to eradicate an old foe instead of beginning peace talks. The US with a tiny force are occupying a huge portion of the region in support of an ally and to block direct access of Iranian forces into the region at the same time maintaining a balance with Russia who is it's main military competitor. The US presence also provides some security to Israel their other ally.

Reasons are everything.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Once could argue that Russia has no right to be in a region supporting a regime that uses WMD on it's people.
The fact remains that Assad's government [irrespective of it being undemocratic] is officially recognised as the country's legitimate government and has 'invited' the Russians in.

Some will also argue that the U.S. has no right to be in the region supporting countries that don't even have elected governments and providing intel and logistics support fora war waged by those countries on Yemen.

Iran are there to oppose the Sunni forces that invaded the country and to achieve a strategic edge for a future conflict with Israel.
One can make such an argument but it makes no sense when it's clear that Iran's main objective is not to confront Israel but to ensure the survival of the only Arab ally it has. Losing Assad and having a Sunni dominated government in Syria would be a major blow for Iran given that its fighting a 'cold war' with a Sunni coalition comprising the Arab Gulf states backed by outside powers.

at the same time maintaining a balance with Russia who is it's main military competitor. The US presence also provides some security to Israel their other ally.
There are other more applicable ways of 'maintaining a balance with Russia' and doing what it's doing has very little or no impact on Israel's security. Neither Assad or his 'moderate' enemies entertain any thoughts on harming Israel. Even for IS and other 'extremist' groups; their main aim is to overthrow secular Arab governments; not confronting Israel.

Reasons are everything.
Indeed but some 'reasons' are more realistic or believable than others. Some can provide 'reasons' as to why IS is actually supported [bollocks of course] by the U.S. and Israel as part of a grand plot to reshape the Middle East.
 
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gazzzwp

Member
The fact remains that Assad's government [irrespective of it being undemocratic] is officially recognised as the country's legitimate government and has 'invited' the Russians in.

Some will also argue that the U.S. has no right to be in the region supporting countries that don't even have elected governments and providing intel and logistics support fora war waged by those countries on Yemen.



One can make such an argument but it makes no sense when it's clear that Iran's main objective is not to confront Israel but to ensure the survival of the only Arab ally it has. Losing Assad and having a Sunni dominated government in Syria would be a major blow for Iran given that its fighting a 'cold war' with a Sunni coalition comprising the Arab Gulf states backed by outside powers.



There are other more applicable ways of 'maintaining a balance with Russia' and doing what it's doing has very little or no impact on Israel's security. Neither Assad or his 'moderate' enemies entertain any thoughts on harming Israel. Even for IS and other 'extremist' groups; their main aim is to overthrow secular Arab governments; not confronting Israel.



Indeed but some 'reasons' are more realistic or believable than others. Some can provide 'reasons' as to why IS is actually supported [bollocks of course] by the U.S. and Israel as part of a grand plot to reshape the Middle East.
This is one thing I like about this forum is that questions are asked that do not seem to be asked elsewhere. Exactly what are the US doing in the region? I'm not saying that the points already raised are invalid. However in the light of recent noises from the administration suggesting that Russia and China have overtaken terrorism in terms of threat level to the US, it strikes me that their main objective may be intelligence gathering with Russia's new high tech weaponry particularly their EW capabilities.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I take a different view. Legitimacy of occupation is subjective. Once could argue that Russia has no right to be in a region supporting a regime that uses WMD on it's people. Iran are there to oppose the Sunni forces that invaded the country and to achieve a strategic edge for a future conflict with Israel. Turkey are using the excuse of trying to eradicate an old foe instead of beginning peace talks. The US with a tiny force are occupying a huge portion of the region in support of an ally and to block direct access of Iranian forces into the region at the same time maintaining a balance with Russia who is it's main military competitor. The US presence also provides some security to Israel their other ally.

Reasons are everything.
Legitimacy is a tricky subject. Internationally it doesn't really matter whether you're a democracy or not (in point of fact most countries are not really democracies). WMD use is an interesting one, but then there's precedent. The US used WMDs with much greater effect during WWII. Saddam used WMDs and while he got hit with sanctions, he remained in power and was still recognized as the ruler of Iraq. In this case we have limited use of low-tech chemical weapons whose actual effect is less then a typical WWII carpet bombing raid. To be clear, Assad is a terrible leader, and runs one of the worst governments in the region. He makes Gaddafi look downright good. But on the flip side the US supports the Saudis, supported Mubarak in the past, generally has a history of supporting plenty of unsavory leaders. Was the US wrong in all of those cases? Are we making a principal argument that supporting a murderous regime should never be allowed? If yes, the US will be in trouble. If no, then what makes Assad special? Is killing your own civilians worse then killing civilians of your neighbors?

As is, governments are generally legitimate regardless of their form (democracy, monarchy, etc.). Typically governments can do a lot of bad things internally and quite a few externally without losing legitimacy. Assad specifically was targeted by the US along with a coalition of other countries who sought to remove him from office and part of that was an attack on his legitimacy. But this attack, as most such attacks, was opportunistic not principal and should be viewed in that context. Had Assad been pro-American you would see as few mentions of his chemical attacks on Syrian civilians as you see of Saudi bombings of Yemen civilians. Which puts us right back in the middle of the dilemma. Assad isn't going anywhere. most of the population of Syria lives in territory he controls, and indeed actively sought to leave rebel controlled areas. With Russian and Iranian backing he isn't going anywhere, and with Turkey now in the Russo-Iranian camp, the changes of him being removed from power are slim. At this point if you want to have diplomatic relations with Syria, you essentially have to have them with Assad.

Which leaves the Kurds in control of a semi-autonomous area, supported by the US, and at odds with almost every other major player. Take a look at the Iraqi Kurds and how their bid for independence led to Turkey, Iran, and Iraq to bring troops to their borders. At this point a peaceful solution for the Syrian Kurds would have to involve a) reintegration into Syria, and that's Assad's Syria we're talking about, or b) surrendering to the Turks. Any attempt at remaining independent whether in fact or in name will lead to a continued conflict. The Turks will try to crush them and Russia/Iran/Assad will let them, or even help.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Exactly what are the US doing in the region?
Good question. In 2 decades from now; assuming Iran has turn 'friendly', Syria is ruled by someone else other Assad and is no longer a Russian ally; there are no major terrorist groups that threaten Western interests or Western allies; there is no threat to Israel because Iran is 'behaving' and the Palestinians [by some miracle] have their own state; what justification would the U.S. and other Western countries have to maintain a military presence in the region? Would the Gulf states still welcome a Western military presence on their soil? An non 'Revolutionary' Iran and non 'Baathist' Syria will mean the whole region consist of countries friendly\compliant with the U.S. and less reasons for Russia to be there.

Coming back to the present, now that the U.S. has failed to evict Assad from office and has failed to prevent Russia from being a major player in the region; what will it do next? One thing's for sure; just like how American and Arab Gulf State policy over Syria was always driven by the need to further isolate Iran; what these countries do next will still largely be driven by the so called 'threat' posed by Iran and the need to isolate it. If the situation in Syria takes a turn for the worst again for Assad, will Iran be able to maintain it present level of commitment there; given that its economy could be doing a lot better and it has already spend a lot on Syria.

By Reversing Its Policy In Syria The US Is Fuelling More Wars In The Middle East

'The US may want to get rid of Assad and weaken Iran across the region but it is too late. Pro-Iranian governments in Iraq and Syria are in power and Hezbollah is the most powerful single force in Lebanon. This is not going to change any time soon and, if the Americans want to weaken Assad by keeping a low-level war going, then this will make him even more reliant on Iran.'

'The fighting over the last five days has exposed as a dangerous fantasy the US hopes that its new interventionist policy would stabilise northern Syria. Instead of weakening President Bashar al-Assad and Iran, it will benefit them, showing the Kurds that they badly need a protector other than the US. The Kurds are now demanding that the Syrian Army go to Afrin to defend it against the Turks because it is an integral part of Syria. A military confrontation between Turkey and the US would be much in the interests of Tehran and Damascus. The Iranians, denounced by the US as the source of all evil, will be glad to see America in lots of trouble in Syria without them having to stir a finger.'

' It was a bad moment for the US to stir the pot by saying it would stay in Syria and target Assad and Iran. A Kurdish-Turkish war in northern Syria will be a very fierce one. The US obsession with an exaggerated Iranian threat – about which, in any case, it cannot do much – makes it difficult for Washington to mediate and cool down the situation. Trump and his chaotic administration have not yet had to deal with a real Middle East crisis yet and the events of the last week suggest that they will not be able to do so'
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

The Turks are slowly moving forward into the Afrin. Their use of air and artillery will eventually wear down the Kurds, and without serious reinforcements from Rojava, Afrin will fall. Noteworthy is the fortress in the mountains that the Turks have recently taken after several days of heavy fighting. It appears that the Kurds have been preparing for this war for quite some time (photos in the first link).

Долговременные укрепления афринских курдов
Африн. 30.01.2018
Оливковая ветвь. День девятый

The Turks new t-129 attack helo is being used in the Afrin.

Турецкий ударный вертолет T-129 ATAK в бою с афринскими курдами

A Turkish column moving through Idlib hit an IED. Some sources attempted to credit this as an artillery strike by the SAA.

Турецкий конвой в Идлибе

Negotiations have begun in Sochi between members of the Turkish backed opposition and the Syrian government. The plan is to draft a new constitution, with 50 members from the opposition and 100 members from the government involved.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3963056.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3963544.html

The US is withdrawing technical support for the Iraqi Abrams fleet because some of the tanks were handed over to groups outside the Iraqi military.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3069267.html

It appears Erdogan entertains hopes of returning the Syrian refugees to Syria.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/28jan2018/erdogansays.html

A group of ISIS fighters moving into Iran from Iraq was intercepted and captured. Undoubtedly many such pockets of ISIS remain and will attempt to move into neighboring countries.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/700834.html

A look at western ATGMs and RPGs in the hands of the Kurds.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3958672.html

And according to some sources, nearly a 3rd of the weapons and 20% of the munitions from ISIS came from EU countries. To be honest this isn't entirely news, given that the US has been using ex-WarPac countries as a source of weapons and munitions for the rebels for quite some time. Naturally some of that has made its way to ISIS.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3959443.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

The Syrian Army has begun the push on Saraqeb, the largest rebel held city in Idlib. I think we may be about to find out just how much the Turks have traded in Idlib for a free hand in Afrin.

vhttps://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3967740.html

A Russian Su-25SM has been shot down over Idlib. The pilot blew himself up with a grenade after fighting the rebels. Tahrir Ash Sham has taken responsibility.

Retaliatory strikes have been carried out, allegedly killing 30 rebel fighters.

В Сирии сбит российский штурмовик Су-25СМ
В Идлибе сбит Су-25 ВКС РФ
Удары возмездия
Группировка "Тахрир аш-Шам"* взяла на себя ответственность за атаку на российский Су-25
http://classic.newsru.com/world/03feb2018/su25down.html

A Leo-2A4 of the Turkish Army was ripped to pieces by a detonation of the ammo. Apparently the armor in the area of the ammo stowage is thing, and the result is devastating.

Personal comment: after devil knows how many spears were broken over discussions about the ammo storage issues on the T-64/72/80, this is a rather awkward moment for the Germans.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3079160.html
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/02/2.html
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/02/blog-post_4.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3971162.html

Footage of the Turkish assault on the Kurdish fortress.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3970553.html

~80 M1 Abrams tanks sit at the base of the 9th Tank Division in Iraq. It appears that they are inoperational. When you add the tanks that were destroyed in combat, and consider that a total of only 152 were ever delivered, this is a staggering number. Given the recent withdrawal of technical support, it appears that the days of Abrams fleet in Iraq are numbered.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3078467.html

Meanwhile a Tochka-U missile was launched in Haraste.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1538152.html
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I would imagine that a major concern for the Americans is the possibility of Iraqi M-1s ending up in Iranian hands and from there to the Russians. I was also surprised that Javelin made its way to the Kurds.

On the Turkish Leopard, from the links provided its looks like it was hit by a massive IED.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would imagine that a major concern for the Americans is the possibility of Iraqi M-1s ending up in Iranian hands and from there to the Russians. I was also surprised that Javelin made its way to the Kurds.
A curious situation. And yet they sold the Abrams to the Iraqis in the first place, raising questions about how quickly the US lost control of what was at one point a satellite state.

On the Turkish Leopard, from the links provided its looks like it was hit by a massive IED.
Allegedly it's the result of an ATGM impact in the lower side of the tank where the ammo is stored. All the ammo cooking off ripped the tank to pieces.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
A curious situation. And yet they sold the Abrams to the Iraqis in the first place, raising questions about how quickly the US lost control of what was at one point a satellite state.
I guess the question is would it really benefit the Russians to get hold of an export model M-1, lacking various features fitted on U.S. army M-1s? By now the Russians would have a pretty good idea as to what's inside an M-1; would there be anything from it they would like to add to the Armata? If anything the Russians would probably be more interested in the M-1s KE rounds than the tank itself but that's assuming the Iraqis were supplied top range rounds.

On another note I recall reading somewhere that a Phantom, Phoenix and AN/AWG-9 [apparently the Soviets faced huge technical issues attempting to reverse engineer certain parts of it] ended up in the Soviet Union in the 1980's courtesy of the Iranians. And of course there's Blazer which the Syrians captured and past on to the Soviets. There was a book by a former Brit General who recalled a visit he made to India during the Cold War. He visited an air base base and was shown the various Western gear the Indians had but wasn't allowed anywhere near their Soviet supplied stuff. During one of the LIMA exhibitions in Malaysia a few years ago some Russians were caught after hours by security trying to dismantle parts of a detailed mock of a U.S. radar or missile.

With Javelin, I was really surprised to see it in Turkey. Granted its been around for quite a while now but surely its something the Americans would rather not have the Russians have a close look at.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This story involves the issue how to process ISIS prisoners. Solutions include returning them to their countries of origin, Gilmore, or new military prisons. Many here don't want citizen who fought with ISIS to be returned, ever. If Gitmo is the solution Donald, keep them there, don't return any Canadians a few years later like the US did with Kadhr. A solution mentioned in the UK is the best one.

US-Backed Syrian Force Holding ‘Hundreds’ of ISIS Foreign Fighters
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Apparently a Syrian forces moved towards an SDF force in Deyr ez Zor. Their movement may or may not have been preceded by arty or mortar fire. A US airstrike halted the advance, claiming that the SAA forces attacked the SDF. Details are lacking, and the Russian answer is a vague one. Meanwhile Damascus has requested that the UN recognize the US strike as a warcrime.

Personal comment: I wonder if Assad has a sense of irony.

МИД Сирии потребовал от ООН осудить удар коалиции по сторонникам Асада как военное преступление
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3981393.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-led-coalition-says-struck-syrian-pro-regime-225529640.html

The Dahur pocket is near collapse, as the remnants of ISIS are slowly ground under by pro-Assad forces.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3976077.html

An An-74 transport is dropping supplies to besieged SAA forces in Idlib. A reminder, and pro-Assad garrison has been besieged in central Idlib for years.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/704195.html

One Turkish ACV-15 was knocked out the other captured, also another M-60 was destroyed by ATGM.

This comes as a Turkish column continues movement through Idlib while the Kurds are reinforcing the Afrin.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/691994.html
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/02/60_7.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3976935.html

There are rumors that following the shoot down of the Su-25, Turkish aircraft avoided Idlib airspace for 2 days.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1583213.html

Warning, graphic footage. A video of the last battle of the Russian pilot, who blew himself up with a grenade to avoid capture.

https://nortwolf-sam.livejournal.com/2193176.html

Tochka-U missiles, among other munitions, have been used in strikes against rebel positions near the shoot down.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1584282.html

Syrian air defense intercepted 3 cruise missiles near Damascus. A reminder that despite there being no declared war, low-scale hostilities continue between Israel and Syria.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1593651.html

T-90A tanks being either rotated or withdrawn from Syria. These appear to be Russian T-90As that are used for base security in Khmeimeem.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/02/90_7.html

It appears that the body of the Russian pilot was not exchanged as intended but instead stolen by pro-Turkish fighters from Al-Nusra and delivered to Turkey. The body was delivered to Russia for a funeral.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3979710.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/06feb2018/deathkwamtai.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3977542.html

Russia's trade mission in Damascus was hit by 120mm mortar rounds.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/06feb2018/mina.html

The Russian pontoon bridge near Deyr-ez-Zor appears to have partially submerged.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/02/blog-post_51.html
 

Rimasta

Member
Looks like Syrian defenses downed an Israeli F-16. Aircraft crashed in Northern Israel, both pilots are said to be safe. This was apparently in response to an Iranian UAV entering Israeli airspace though we all know how common strikes are by the IDF. I wonder if this could escalate things further.

Israel jet crashes amid Syrian fire - army
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Yes, loss of an F16I.

Crash landed after back in Israeli airspace. The IDF launched a second wave of air attaches targeting over a dozen targets, mainly Syrians SAM sights as well and an Iranian drone site.

Interesting the drone was shot down by an IDF AH64AI

Israeli F-16I destroyed in attacks prompted by Iranian UAV infiltration

Another report, this time showing the footage of the drone shoot down.

Interesting to note the drone released flares showing a level of advancement.
Video also shows the IDF strike on the drone control site in Syrian. When I watched it it appeared the operators in the command trailer running from vehicle just prior to impact which makes me wonder how they knew.

Flurry Of Aircraft Shoot-Downs And Counter-Strikes Erupt Across Israel And Syria (Updated)
 
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