War Against ISIS

gazzzwp

Member
Update.

The SAA offensive in Idlib looks to be aimed at forming pocket in the western portion of Idlib, surrounding both a large chunk of Al-Nusra with allies, as well as the ISIS forces that broke out of Akkerbat.

10 километров до котла
Идлиб. 09.01.2018

Meanwhile Russia claims the UAV attack on on Russian bases came from the de-escalation area in Idlib. Specifically from the territory that's supposed to be under Turkish watch. This comes as Turkey calls on Russia and Iran to halt the Syrian offensive in Idlib.

МО РФ назвало местом запуска атаковавших Хмеймим БЛА зону деэскалации под ответственностью Турции
"Щит Евфрата". Анонс второй серии
Минобороны обвиняет "умеренную оппозицию" в атаке дронов на Хмеймим

CITeam, using OSINT, suggests that Russian PMC Turan doesn't actually exist and instead is a fabrication. Colonelcassad fires back, in Russian, pointing out inconsistencies in the CITeam analysis. The reality of that particular structure remains in question, but the presence of Russian PMCs is not.

Turan — a new private military company fighting in Syria or an elaborate hoax? — Conflict Intelligence Team
"Туран" Шредингера

A Bahrein citizen, fighting for ISIS, and captured by the SDF, claims there are connections between ISIS and Turkey. Given the revelations of an organized exit out of Raqqa, repeated rumors of coalition helos evacuating ISIS leadership, and the earlier captured documents regarding links between ISIS and Turkey, the entire situation smells bad. It's hard to say anything concrete, given that many ISIS fighters face flat out execution when captured and would likely say much to avoid it, but the weight of indirect evidence is getting to be heavy.

Боевики халифата раскрывают подробности сотрудничества террористов с Турцией

Syria accuses Israel of 3 strikes in Syria over one night.

Сирия обвинила Израиль в нанесении трех ракетных ударов за одну ночь

I don't think any of this is surprising to be honest. The opponents of Assad and all that he stands for have watched his forces go on the ascendancy with Russian and Iranian support. In the meantime you have Turkish presence still very much in the area; having proclaimed their divorce from the US and apparently favouring ties to Russia (allowing Russia to use their air fields etc) one wonders if they are not playing some sort of game with both superpowers as it befits their purposes. Who really knows what Turkey's end game really is?

Then we have the Saudis; still rumoured to be providing materiel and money. The US watching everyone closely to see where there next entry into the arena will be, still very much aggrieved by Assad's survival and the growing presence in the region of their adversaries Russia and Iran.

The resistance now sees the Russian airfields as targets and it will be interesting to see how effective their defences are what will be their response if these attacks continue. I doubt that Russia bargained for this to be quite honest.

Then there is Israel still prodding away in the background with the occasional air strike, testing the air defences in the region to ensure that they still maintain effective striking opportunities.

The war is clearly far from over. The pawns on the chessboard are clearly now ISIS and the remaining resistance whereas previously they were the major forces to be defeated. Much will now be done militarily and politically in the name of wiping out the remaining resistance but in reality it will only be to win a longer term better strategic position for the stronger world powers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think any of this is surprising to be honest. The opponents of Assad and all that he stands for have watched his forces go on the ascendancy with Russian and Iranian support. In the meantime you have Turkish presence still very much in the area; having proclaimed their divorce from the US and apparently favouring ties to Russia (allowing Russia to use their air fields etc) one wonders if they are not playing some sort of game with both superpowers as it befits their purposes. Who really knows what Turkey's end game really is?
They want regional power status with a recognized sphere of influence. I guess "end game" is a fungible term, but that's what Turkey is currently aiming at.

Then we have the Saudis; still rumoured to be providing materiel and money. The US watching everyone closely to see where there next entry into the arena will be, still very much aggrieved by Assad's survival and the growing presence in the region of their adversaries Russia and Iran.

The resistance now sees the Russian airfields as targets and it will be interesting to see how effective their defences are what will be their response if these attacks continue. I doubt that Russia bargained for this to be quite honest.
How is now different from before? Assad has conducted offensives against rebels before, including the battle for Aleppo. Russia has been pounding the rebels from Khmeimeem for quite some time. In fact Russia's initial entry into the war was mainly aimed at the non-ISIS rebels. Only after a series of victories against the rebels, while holding ISIS at bay, did Russia and Syria shift their focus to ISIS. And even then it had more to do with the opportunity to take large swathes of territory from ISIS, as well as lay claim to the "we beat ISIS" crown.

The war is clearly far from over. The pawns on the chessboard are clearly now ISIS and the remaining resistance whereas previously they were the major forces to be defeated. Much will now be done militarily and politically in the name of wiping out the remaining resistance but in reality it will only be to win a longer term better strategic position for the stronger world powers.
The war is "far from over" but there is not much question left to Assad's political survival, nor to who has gained the most, and who has gained very little.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It looks like the Turks are getting ready for a move on the Afrin pocket. If the Turks make their move unopposed, it's likely this indicates that a deal was struck. In the past the US showing the flag around Manbij and Russia showing the flag around Afrin stopped the Turks. So far the US has stated that they will not defend Afrin, while continuing support for the SDF in north-eastern Syria, even going so far as to hand over MANPADS to the Kurds by some reports. It remains to be seen whether the Turks can actually defeat the Kurds, as in the past they did not do well in battles around Azaz.

This is pure speculation on my part, but it's possible that the Turks green-lighted the SAA offensive into Idlib in exchange for Russia allowing him to move against the Afrin.

Авиабаза Дахур. 11.01.2018

In the meantime, the US will train a new group of Kurdish fighters to guard the borders of the new Kurdish quasi-state in north-eastern Syria.

О планах вторжения в Африн
США не будут поддерживать курдов в Африне
Источник: США тайно передали сирийским курдам ПЗРК
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3931696.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/14jan2018/us30borderguards.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/14jan2018/reanimacia.html

Syrian forces continue to the push to close the pocket around Western Idlib surrounding both various rebel groups and ISIS. A counter-attack was attempted by the rebels on the flanks of the advancing Syrian force, but it appears to have failed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3925467.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3925823.html

A Russian Searcher Mk2 was downed in Syria by the rebels.

Also information has appeared that a Russian PMC was killed in battles around Idlib.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3045849.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/16jan2018/syria.html

Russian MoD has released footage of a guided arty strike against the rebels who allegedly attempted to bombKhmeimeem with drones. Allegations have surfaced, however, that the footage was edited.

http://classic.newsru.com/russia/13jan2018/montazh.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3927582.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3926285.html

An OSINT look at the drones used against Russia in the recent attack.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/01/12/the_poor_mans_airforce/

A Syrian L-39 was shot down in northern Hama province.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3896428.html

Like others before it, the Beit Jinn pocket has capitulated to the SAA. This follows a pattern of pockets of rebel resistance that are cut off from

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3894731.html
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Now that IS has largely been defeated it remains to be seen what Russia will do, apart from maintaining its bases in Syria and ensuring its hard worn victories are not squandered. Yes it has achieved all or most of its objectives [unlike the U.S] but how will Russia ensure that things don't take a turn for the worse in the coming year? As for the U.S. it's priority now seems to be the Kurds and having a go at Iran. Unless of course it comes up with another plan, with Saudi, UAE and Israeli backing to look at ways to undermine Assad; which of course would include weakening or isolating Iran.

Moscow-based think tank director: Russia’s unexpected military victory in Syria

Donald Trump still doesn’t understand Iran after a year in power
 

gazzzwp

Member
Now that IS has largely been defeated it remains to be seen what Russia will do, apart from maintaining its bases in Syria and ensuring its hard worn victories are not squandered. Yes it has achieved all or most of its objectives [unlike the U.S] but how will Russia ensure that things don't take a turn for the worse in the coming year? As for the U.S. it's priority now seems to be the Kurds and having a go at Iran. Unless of course it comes up with another plan, with Saudi, UAE and Israeli backing to look at ways to undermine Assad; which of course would include weakening or isolating Iran.

Moscow-based think tank director: Russia’s unexpected military victory in Syria

Donald Trump still doesn’t understand Iran after a year in power
Also the US have declared that they will be in the region for the long term. This is significant.

Tillerson's Syria wish list means US is in it for longer haul - CNNPolitics
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The clouds are gathering around the Afrin enclave. Turkish artillery has begun shelling the Kurds, the Kurds returned fire towards Azaz. Meanwhile it appears Russian MPs are leaving the enclave, essentially green-lighting the operation. I think this answers our questions regarding the Turkish stance on Idlib.
 

gazzzwp

Member
The clouds are gathering around the Afrin enclave. Turkish artillery has begun shelling the Kurds, the Kurds returned fire towards Azaz. Meanwhile it appears Russian MPs are leaving the enclave, essentially green-lighting the operation. I think this answers our questions regarding the Turkish stance on Idlib.
Feanor do you know if there are any US forces inside the Afrin pocket?

upload_2018-1-19_17-2-49.png
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Erdogan announced the beginning of the operation against the Afrin enclave. However the Russian flag still flies over a small outpost inside the enclave and apparently Russian military police, albeit in token numbers, are still present. Artillery shellings continue, and 4 Turkish soldiers are reported killed in a minor clash at the outskirts.

Африн. 19.01.2018
Африн. 20.01.2018
Российский флаг в Африне
Африн. Промежуточное. 19.01.2018
http://classic.newsru.com/world/20jan2018/erdosays.html
 

gazzzwp

Member
Erdogan announced the beginning of the operation against the Afrin enclave. However the Russian flag still flies over a small outpost inside the enclave and apparently Russian military police, albeit in token numbers, are still present. Artillery shellings continue, and 4 Turkish soldiers are reported killed in a minor clash at the outskirts.

Африн. 19.01.2018
Африн. 20.01.2018
Российский флаг в Африне
Африн. Промежуточное. 19.01.2018
Эрдоган объявил о начале операции против курдов в сирийском Африне

Just to clarify in my own mind; Turkey are neither respecting Russia or the US in terms of bombarding the enclave?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Just to clarify in my own mind; Turkey are neither respecting Russia or the US in terms of bombarding the enclave?
There is no US presence there so nothing to respect. There is a small Russian MP detachment (probably something platoon sized, maybe even squad sized) at a known location. That location is not getting hit. They will likely not start a full blown operation until Russian presence is gone, and they're currently holding negotiations and consultations with Russian military officials on the subject. The Turks learned their lesson after the Su-24 downing. They don't want a conflict with Russia, and they can generally get much from Russia in a tit-for-tat trade. I personally suspect that Turkey sold a chunk of their proteges (if not all of them) in Idlib down-river in exchange for a Russian green-light to hit Afrin. The goal of the operation for the Turks might be to establish a corridor from their Syrian gains in the north to their segment of Idlib province.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Among other targets, the Turks struck an airfield that the US uses to deliver weapons to the Kurds.

Турецкая авиация разбомбила аэродром на северо-западе Сирии

Some footage of Turkish airstrikes.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1506697.html

The Kurds returned fire, striking the Turkish town of Kilis with rockets.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3943554.html

The ground operation also begun, and a Leo-2 has already been hit. The Turks seem to once again be relying on proxy fighters while providing the armor, air, and artillery. Last time this cost them dearly in tanks.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/01/24.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3943850.html

France has called an emergency Security Council session on account of operation Olive Branch, while the Turks announced that the goal of the operation is a buffer zone against terrorism.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/21jan2018/frsyria.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/21jan2018/trurksays.html

Meanwhile the SAA has closed the pocket around both ISIS and al-Nusra forces in Eastern Idlib/Western Aleppo.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1507328.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3943140.html

And ISIS remnants in Deyr-ez-Zor remind of their existence as they launch attacks on the Kurds.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1509237.html
 

gazzzwp

Member
Looking ahead do people think that Turkey will push ahead and threaten the main Kurdish held region East of the Euphrates? Or is it just the YPG stronghold that they are after?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Apparently Turkey bombed Kurdish positions around Manbij, and there are unconfirmed rumors of two foreign advisors to the Kurds killed in the airstrike.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The Turkish offensive is crawling forward, and they've opened a second front against Kurdish fighters near Manbij. The Turks have also urged the US to pull out of Manbij. This might be related to the redeployment of reinforcements from Rojava to Afrin.

In the meantime the Kurds are asking Assad to protect "Syrian territory from Turkish aggression". This comes as the Turks have refused to provide a time limit on the operations despite US suggestions.

On the whole the situation is pretty terrible for the US as they're faced with a geopolitical confrontation with Turkey, while Russia, Assad, and Iran are set to profit from any likely outcome.

Оливковая ветвь. День третий.
Оливковая ветвь. День четвертый
Оливковая ветвь. День пятый
Оливковая ветвь. День шестой. Асад помоги!
Объяснения Эрдогана
http://classic.newsru.com/world/22jan2018/kurdishfighters.html

A second btln of the S-400 has arrived in Syria.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1518219.html
 

the concerned

Active Member
If the unfortunate happens and US forces get caught up in the Turkish offensive. Because they are using US supplied weapons would that trigger a arms embargo.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
If the unfortunate happens and US forces get caught up in the Turkish offensive. Because they are using US supplied weapons would that trigger a arms embargo.
Turkey doesn’t exclusively use US made equipment for their military. They use many suppliers and have a growing domestic production base
 
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