I find it useful to think of ISIS, the FSA, and al-Nusra (and sometimes even the SAA) as umbrellas under which armed groups operate. I mean there are often core forces, that are al-Nusra or ISIS, but they are surrounded by a giant cloud of affiliated groups or groups that "pledged their loyalty" and use the ISIS or al-Nusra, or FSA name.
Oh, man ... this war will never end ... not like this. Seems Assad is running out of people who will die for him.
I've seen references to it being a multi-generational war - ie 50+ years
It might be the case that there's disagreement between Russia and Assad+Iran. Russia is likely arguing for a push towards Deyr-ez-Zor, while Assad and his friends from Iran want to clear out Aleppo.ISIS and the other jihadists need to be defeated by other muslims and not by western intervention, otherwise they will never truly go away.
In Iraq the Sadrist movement seems to be the best hope with a non-sectarian, technocratic government, which will take on the struggle with reduced outside intervention (West,Iran etc)
In Syria, I would like to see a general ceasefire with the rebels while the SAA pushes from Palmyra to Deyr Erzor, then liberates it and expands its control there. Assad must resign with under-the-table guarantees that he will never be prosecuted for war crimes, go to Russia forever and some trusted general should take over so the talks for a transitional government can continue with a victorious but more amiable syrian government.
Yeah, right ...
Why do I have this sickening feeling that this prediction involves IS establishing themselves in other parts of the world beyond ME...
Yes, unfortunately. They have branches in Afghanistan and are attempting to gain footholds in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and North Africa. Libya has been particularly attractive to them with affiliates operating there.
...and let's not forget Belgium and France. Stuff will likely be happening in other Euro zones in the future. For us in North America, it is only a matter of time before we see the same $hit. Nobody wants to do boots on the ground which is understandable after years of zero return but a serious amount of eradicating of these A-holes is required and I don't see token drone and fighter strikes accomplishing this by century's end.
That's true it's matter of time for ISIS hit North America. But I will said this the CIA is doing some top secret mission against ISIS even I won't discuss this on the forum. Let's give credit to one of best agency in the world the CIA its doing it job as we speak. I'm not going to said it not going happen in the U.S. it could but a lot ISIS operation were stop by CIA. I seen these cats in action during my time in the military they are no joke just want to let the forum know this. The CIA teams has some ex NAVY SEALS and DELTA FORCE personnel on there payroll.
you can't kill your way to victory - that's why its a multi-generational event.
Russia has been steadily putting more boots on the ground, and has been taking increasing casualties for it. It remains to be seen whether they continue to do so. Iran has been putting increasing numbers of boots on the ground, in even larger quantities, and has taken quite heavy losses in the process. In fact both efforts, I suspect, have been instrumental in keeping Assad in the fight. Mid-2015 people were predicting a fairly rapid fall of the regime (even in this thread) following the loss of all his oil fields. I think that not only is gf0012 spot on, but also that both Russia and Iran have figured out that merely air power and limited SoF presence are not enough. The SAA and NDF militias are having difficulty holding ground, and even supplying them with equipment doesn't always help, since they often don't know how to use it. This is why the Russian arty group grew from a single battery to what now looks like a mixed arty regiment, and why Iranian presence started out with some advisers, and now they're deploying not only Revolutionary Guard but also regular army units.
Indeed. I live in Singapore, and our government has been pretty public about the IS threat that surrounds us. From southern Philippines, to Bangladesh, to the AfPak region, ME, Northern/Western Africa...heck, the arrests of Malaysian armed forces personnel (including commandos) who have ISIS links cuts a little too close to home, honestly.
Fully agree. I often get the feeling that this is going to force everyone to have a close look at how societies function.
The US is well positioned with in Theatre assets rapidly deployable for any necessary extraction. All cover by near immediate CAS
I doubt if IS still operates much ''heavy equipment''; especially after seeing how their ''heavy equipment'' [in the form of AFVs and other vehicles captured from the Syrian and Iraqi governments] attracted the attention of U.S. air power. In response to air strikes; IS now disperses its units and operates them in smaller groups to avoid the attention of air power.
Indeed but it not only still controls large parts of Syria and Iraq [despite all the fire power thrown against it] and still attracts volunteers to its cause.
I totally agree, Were it not for the efforts of Russia and Iran; Assad would probably be in a worst state now. Similarly, in Iraq it was largely the efforts of various Shia militias which slowed down the advance of IS, not the regular Iraqi army. Despite its losses in men and the costs of maintaining its presence in Iraq [which it can ill afford]; Iran has no choice but to continue what it's doing.
Could you post some links then please. I think that the infighting amongst the rebel forces has served Assads survival chances quite well. His govt is an Alawite minority one and if he is removed then he will be replaced by an Alawite from within the current govt. In reality any future govt of a Syria within its current borders would have to be a non Alawite govt. The longer the destabilisation of modern day Syria and Iraq plays out, the more I see the two countries being eventually dismembered and the Sykes - Picot borders being relegated to history where they belong. New states will arise from the ashes.