War Against ISIS

Feanor · Apr 16, 2016

bdique said:
That's odd, I'd thought that the EA-6Bs were retired already.

Anyway, as always, thanks for the updates!

Here's a US government source.

Marine Corps Aircraft Deploy to Turkey for Operation Inherent Resolve > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Article View

bdique · Apr 17, 2016

Feanor said:
Here's a US government source.

Marine Corps Aircraft Deploy to Turkey for Operation Inherent Resolve > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Article View

Oh Marine Corps, okay that makes sense now. Thanks!

gazzzwp · Apr 17, 2016

bdique said:
Oh Marine Corps, okay that makes sense now. Thanks!

Hmm.

You guys must surely be thinking what I'm thinking and that is is all of this sophistication really to make things easier for dealing with ISIL or is it more about making the most of the opportunity that being close to active Russian forces presents?

Intelligence gathering, jamming S-400 equipment, detecting Russias EW systems?

What do you honestly think?

Feanor · Apr 19, 2016

Update.

Aside from minor back and forth, the most significant event has occurred in Latakia where the rebels have launched a major counter-offensive, taking several small villages. The elite Desert Hawks brigade was rapidly re-located to Latakia to counter this offensive, and at this point there is a counter-offensive in progress, aiming at the strategic rebel town of Kabanah.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/389899

Footage of an allegedly captured T-90 tank, that was hit by an ATGM. Note the missing ERA tiles. The details are hazy.

Análisis Militares: T-90 capturado por los rebeldes en Siria

Ancient 160mm mortars in combat in Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ðœ-160 – Ð±ÐµÐ·Ð¶Ð°Ð»Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐµÐºÐ¸Ñ€Ð° Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ð¸ ÐÑÐ°Ð´Ð°

A Turkish M-60T was hit with a Kornet ATGM in northern Iraq. ISIS is claiming responsibility.

ÐŸÑƒÑÐº "ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð½ÐµÑ‚Ð°-Ð" Ð¿Ð¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÑ€Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ñƒ Ñ‚ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ñƒ Ñ‚Ð°Ð½ÐºÑƒ M60T Sabra - bmpd

Some footage from Iraq.

ÐÑƒ Ð¸ Ð˜Ñ€Ð°Ðº Ð²ÑÐµ ÐµÑ‰Ðµ, Ð´Ð°. - Ð‘ÐµÑ€Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð° Ð‘Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÐ´Ð°

An Iranian C-130 over Idlib province, air-dropping supplies to SAA troops.

Ð˜Ñ€Ð°Ð½ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ C-130 Ð½Ð°Ð´ Ð˜Ð´Ð»Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð¼ - Ð®Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ Ð›ÑÐ¼Ð¸Ð½

Iraq has received 3 more Su-25s from Russia.

ÐÐ¾Ð²Ñ‹Ð¹ Ð¸Ñ€Ð°ÐºÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¡Ñƒ-25: militarizm
Ð Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð»Ð° Ð² Ð˜Ñ€Ð°Ðº ÐµÑ‰Ñ‘ Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¸ ÑˆÑ‚ÑƒÑ€Ð¼Ð¾Ð²Ð¸ÐºÐ° Ð¡Ñƒ-25: militarizm

Rimasta · Apr 19, 2016

bdique said:
That's odd, I'd thought that the EA-6Bs were retired already.

Anyway, as always, thanks for the updates!

The Navy retired theirs switching to the Growlers but the Marines, never wanting to completely rely on the U.S. Navy for support after Guadalcanal, kept theirs.

Feanor · Apr 26, 2016

Update.

SAA forces are pushing north of Palmyra, retaking oil fields in that area. The base of Brigade 550 is also back in SAA hands.

Back and forth fighting continues in Latakia, with the regime on the counter-offensive.

There are unconfirmed reports of SAA air strikes against the Kurdish quarter in Aleppo

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/391723
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/390319

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/391723

A Syrian MiG-23 shot down near Damascus, the second in fairly little time. Either the rebels have better air defense systems, or the Syrian have increased their op-tempo. Large numbers of Chinese FN-6 MANPADS might be the culprit.

Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð’Ð’Ð¡ Ð¿Ð¾Ñ‚ÐµÑ€ÑÐ»Ð¸ ÐœÐ¸Ð“-23 Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Ð”Ð°Ð¼Ð°ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¼ - Colonel Cassad
Ð’Ð¾Ð·Ð²Ñ€Ð°Ñ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¤ÑÐ¹Ð½Ñƒ-6 - Ð®Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ Ð›ÑÐ¼Ð¸Ð½
ÐšÐ¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ½Ð¾ÑÐ½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð—Ð Ðš FN-6 Ñƒ ÑÐ¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ñ… Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑ‚Ð°Ð½Ñ†ÐµÐ² - bmpd

There is heavy fighting between Kurdish militias and SAA forces in al-Qamishli. This probably has to do with the Kurds declaring autonomy, something the Assad regime refuses to allow. Personally, I think it would be very smart for Assad to support Kurdish autonomy. And it appears that a Russian-brokered cease-fire between the SAA and YPG is in effect now.

Interestingly enough, shortly afterwards there was fighting between Peshmerga and Shiite militias in Iraq.

ÐšÑ€Ð¸Ð·Ð¸Ñ Ð² ÐÐ»ÑŒ-ÐšÐ°Ð¼Ñ‹ÑˆÐ»Ñ‹ - Colonel Cassad
ÐŸÐµÑ€ÐµÐ¼Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ðµ Ð² ÐÐ»ÑŒ-ÐšÐ°Ð¼Ñ‹ÑˆÐ»Ñ‹ - Colonel Cassad
ÐÐ»ÑŒ-ÐšÐ°Ð¼Ñ‹ÑˆÐ»Ñ‹ - 2 - Colonel Cassad

Iraqi Kurds report ISIS use of chemical weapons against them. Earlier the Syrian Kurds were also hit with chemical weapons by ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èðàêñêèå êóðäû çàÿâèëè, ÷òî "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" ïðèìåíèëî ïðîòèâ íèõ õèìè÷åñêîå îðóæèå

More reports that Turkish border guards are shooting refugees trying to enter.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: The Times: òóðåöêèå ïîãðàíè÷íèêè çàñòðåëèëè âîñåìü ñèðèéñêèõ áåæåíöåâ, ïûòàâøèõñÿ ïåðåñå÷ü ãðàíèöó

Russian tactical ground forces radars Fara have been delivered to the Syrians.

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/76938/

T-90 in Syria.

Ð‘ÑƒÑ€ÑÑ‚ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ‚Ð°Ð½ÐºÐ¸ÑÑ‚ Ð² Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¸. - ÐšÐ¾Ð»Ð»ÐµÐºÑ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ€ Ð±Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²

US is deploying another 250 troops to Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îáàìà ïîäòâåðäèë, ÷òî ÑØÀ îòïðàâÿò â Ñèðèþ äîïîëíèòåëüíî 250 âîåííîñëóæàùèõ

Foreign specialists in Iraq.

Ð˜Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ðµ ÑÐ¿ÐµÑ†Ñ‹ Ð² Ð˜Ñ€Ð°ÐºÐµ - Ð‘ÐµÑ€Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð° Ð‘Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÐ´Ð°

Syrians using Kord HMGs creatively.

Ð¡ÑƒÑ€Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ðµ ÑÐ¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹Ñ†Ñ‹ - Ð‘ÐµÑ€Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð° Ð‘Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÐ´Ð°

The US has suggested to Russia that Syrian be broken up into zones, for the purposes of distinguishing terrorists from moderates.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ ïðåäëîæèëè ÐÔ óñòàíîâèòü ëèíèþ ðàçãðàíè÷åíèÿ îãíÿ â Ñèðèè

Turkish tanks have been seen moving towards the Syrian border.

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Russian EOD has finished clearing the historic part of Palmyra from ISIS booby-traps, and has moved on to the residential areas.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñàïåðû èç ÐÔ ðàçìèíèðîâàëè èñòîðè÷åñêóþ ÷àñòü Ïàëüìèðû

Photos and video from the SAA es-Sin airbase.

Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ð±Ð°Ð·Ð° ÐÑ-Ð¡Ð¸Ð½ - Ð®Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ Ð›ÑÐ¼Ð¸Ð½

ngatimozart · Apr 26, 2016

Al Jazeera are reporting on their TV news that the Turkish Foreign Minister has announced that the US will be deploying a HIMAR MRLS close to the Turkish Syria border where Daesh are holding ground. Apparently Daesh have been fighting the FSA and using mobile rocket launchers in the process. The Turkish military claim that combined with ISR assets, HIMAR will give them the ability to eliminate Daesh mobile rocket launchers.

Feanor · Apr 26, 2016

ngatimozart said:
Al Jazeera are reporting on their TV news that the Turkish Foreign Minister has announced that the US will be deploying a HIMAR MRLS close to the Turkish Syria border where Daesh are holding ground. Apparently Daesh have been fighting the FSA and using mobile rocket launchers in the process. The Turkish military claim that combined with ISR assets, HIMAR will give them the ability to eliminate Daesh mobile rocket launchers.

Surface-surface rocket/missile systems are very effective, and seem to be under-utilized in the west. The Turks are probably correct in their assessment of the HIMARS, especially when coupled with excellent US IRS capabilities.

Feanor · May 3, 2016

Ranger25 · May 3, 2016

ngatimozart said:
Al Jazeera are reporting on their TV news that the Turkish Foreign Minister has announced that the US will be deploying a HIMAR MRLS close to the Turkish Syria border where Daesh are holding ground. Apparently Daesh have been fighting the FSA and using mobile rocket launchers in the process. The Turkish military claim that combined with ISR assets, HIMAR will give them the ability to eliminate Daesh mobile rocket launchers.

Agreed. The HIMARS can very deadly effective with precision ranges between 70-300KM depending on which missile is loaded. I would doubt they use the ATACMS(300km) but even without the rename and CEP is impressive. The US is also sending them to Mosul.

Feanor · May 4, 2016

Ranger25 said:
Agreed. The HIMARS can very deadly effective with precision ranges between 70-300KM depending on which missile is loaded. I would doubt they use the ATACMS(300km) but even without the rename and CEP is impressive. The US is also sending them to Mosul.

The US seems to have taken a page from the Russian playbook, vis-a-vis use of arty in support of local forces. First the secretive USMC arty deployment, now MLRS. Not too surprising, the US has typically been a fast learner.

Plumage · May 5, 2016

If I recall correctly, Russia has one or two batteries supporting regime forces. Is that really enough to have a noticeable impact? I know the conflict isn't a WW2 brawl where artillery support numbers in the hundreds of guns, but 3-6 guns doesn't seem like much.

Feanor · May 5, 2016

Plumage said:
If I recall correctly, Russia has one or two batteries supporting regime forces. Is that really enough to have a noticeable impact? I know the conflict isn't a WW2 brawl where artillery support numbers in the hundreds of guns, but 3-6 guns doesn't seem like much.

Russia employs batteries of 6 guns. There are 2 batteries of Msta-B howitzers, and unspecified quantities of MLRS. Probably at least 1 battery of BM-21 Grad, several BM-27 MLRS, and 2 BM-30 MLRS. Overall not an insignificant force. Especially when you consider that these assets are frequently used together with SpN recon teams, UAVs, helos, and fixed wing air strikes. All in all not a bad assortment of support for a military that typically lacks in these areas.

EDIT: Maybe D-30s too, quantities unclear. Less then a battery wouldn't make sense though. I'm going to try to find footage that includes the towed guns in this parade. Maybe the reporter confused Msta-Bs with D-30s.

http://military-informant.com/airfo...i-sostoyalas-repetitsiya-voennogo-parada.html

Meanwhile Russia is shipping lots of Lynx MRAPs to Syria. In Russia the MRAPs are used by the 22nd SpN, the 127th Recon, and reportedly some military police units. These MRAPs might be slated for donation, but it's far likelier that they're gear for a Russian recon or SpN element.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/3323265.html
http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/3323003.html

Toblerone · May 5, 2016

I wouldn't donate Lynx mraps, they are so modern and not domestically produced. Grads, howitzers, su-25, BMPs and t-72, yes.

Realistically, how are they going to clear urban centers like Aleppo without flattening parts of it? House by house fighting ... versus cornered jihadists, booby traps and tunnel explosions? They don't have the manpower.

Also, why did they turn their strategic focus to Aleppo from Deir Ezzor, is it because they realised they would be getting backstabbed constantly around Alleppo and in the connecting highway while their forces were elsewhere? Because from what I understand the rebels broke the ceasefire there, after Palmyra fell.

ngatimozart · May 5, 2016

Toblerone said:
I wouldn't donate Lynx mraps, they are so modern and not domestically produced. Grads, howitzers, su-25, BMPs and t-72, yes.

Realistically, how are they going to clear urban centers like Aleppo without flattening parts of it? House by house fighting ... versus cornered jihadists, booby traps and tunnel explosions? They don't have the manpower.

Also, why did they turn their strategic focus to Aleppo from Deir Ezzor, is it because they realised they would be getting backstabbed constantly around Alleppo and in the connecting highway while their forces were elsewhere? Because from what I understand the rebels broke the ceasefire there, after Palmyra fell.

Which band of "rebels" broke the cease fire? The cease fire does not apply to all groups so some details please. Daesh and Al Nusra, for example are not part of the cease fire.

ngatimozart · May 5, 2016

There has been a meeting in Stuttgart of the coalition of nations fighting Daesh. The outcome of this meeting was an agreement to provide greater military, economic and political resources for the fight. Rhetoric is one thing - whether the nations honour their pledges is another.

Feanor · May 5, 2016

ngatimozart said:
Which band of "rebels" broke the cease fire? The cease fire does not apply to all groups so some details please. Daesh and Al Nusra, for example are not part of the cease fire.

Neither were Jaesh al-Islam and Ahrar ash-Sham. It gets really complicated because in many areas the FSA is side by side with these factions. And if they shell SAA positions, or launch an offensive, the SAA response will inevitably hit the FSA. There have also been reports of FSA violations, though it's hard to say anything for sure. The same unit of fighters could be FSA today, al-Nusra tomorrow, and join ISIS early next week. Unfortunately no real ceasefire is possible, only temporary lulls in the fighting. Eventually the Assad regime will want to restore control of the area, and clean out the extremists. And there is no way the FSA will simply stand aside while their more radical allies get demolished. Not only would it not be practically feasible, but also the FSA would be left alone against the regime. Even with their current allies, they've still been losing ever since Russia and Iran got involved on the ground. Even if there was some way for the Assad coalition to crush the jihadis while leaving the FSA unharmed, the FSA couldn't let that happen. It would be the end of them.

ngatimozart · May 5, 2016

Feanor said:
Neither were Jaesh al-Islam and Ahrar ash-Sham. It gets really complicated because in many areas the FSA is side by side with these factions. And if they shell SAA positions, or launch an offensive, the SAA response will inevitably hit the FSA. There have also been reports of FSA violations, though it's hard to say anything for sure. The same unit of fighters could be FSA today, al-Nusra tomorrow, and join ISIS early next week. Unfortunately no real ceasefire is possible, only temporary lulls in the fighting. Eventually the Assad regime will want to restore control of the area, and clean out the extremists. And there is no way the FSA will simply stand aside while their more radical allies get demolished. Not only would it not be practically feasible, but also the FSA would be left alone against the regime. Even with their current allies, they've still been losing ever since Russia and Iran got involved on the ground. Even if there was some way for the Assad coalition to crush the jihadis while leaving the FSA unharmed, the FSA couldn't let that happen. It would be the end of them.

Cool thanks Feanor. I wasn't sure because I thought that there was some bad blood between the groups as well.

swerve · May 5, 2016

It's a question of identifying the right people to kill, & the effort one is willing to expend. Those countries are not willing to use ground troops, except for a few advisors, & have committed fairly small air forces.

Feanor · May 6, 2016

standupforright said:
Are you telling me that the US, UK, Japan, Russians together can't get rid of bunch of crazy Arabs in the desert? I mean this time it's not even Afghanistan where you could hide for days in those mountains. I mean come on . . .:dbanana

Russia's ability to operate overseas (they have no land supply route) is very limited. As is they're pushing it pretty hard, and it's mostly impressive that they were even able to do this much. There are already signs that the VMF is over-strained. The BDK workhorses are old, and there are only a few cruisers available as suitable flagships for the Mediterranean task force. Even the BPKs are relatively few in number.

And remember the US has spent 15 years at war in the Middle East. There is relatively little desire to put another ~150 000 troops on the ground, and an increasing realization that unless the Iraqis can stand on their own, it's pointless anyways. ISIS is significantly a product of Iraq's failures of governance.

So while Russia is in this for an Assad victory, their ability to project force is sorely limited (those Mistrals would have come in very handy right about now). The other players are reluctant to commit to a larger operation, as gf0012 mentioned, it's often hard to find the enemy.

Meanwhile, I can confirm D-30s in Syria. Parade practice from Hmeimeem.

Ð ÐµÐ¿ÐµÑ‚Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ ÐŸÐ°Ñ€Ð°Ð´Ð° ÐŸÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ´Ñ‹ - 2016: Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Ð‘ÐµÑ€Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð° Ð‘Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÐ´Ð°

Also, Plumage, some additional thoughts on the employment of Russian support assets. These units are not spread out evenly over the various fronts of the Syrian war. They are typically used in a concentrated manner to bring a qualitative advantage to SAA forces in support of a particular offensive. Russian advisers and arty were behind the SAA push in Latakia. Then Palmyra where Russian EOD also got to show off. Now they're being redeployed to Aleppo area. So while 3 batteries of towed guns and a mixed MLRS btln isn't much even for the Syrian War, when brought together in a single location, with UAV recon, competent artillery-men, and ample air support, it's quite useful. The downside of course is that once their focus shifts to the next strategic objective, the rebels or ISIS are often able to counter-attack. Especially since elite Syrian units are being used in a similar manner (Tiger force in particular).

This strategy has yielded good results and has allowed several operational successes (Latakia, the drive in southern Aleppo, Palmyra) but also often leads to rapid reversals. Like the recent recapture of the Shaer gas fields by ISIS.

Oryx Blog: The peculiarity of the Syrian War, Islamic State captures Shaer gas field for a third time

It's honestly an open question whether Russia and Iran are willing to invest enough in this to see Assad win.

War Against ISIS

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