USAF Plans to sell F22's to "trusted allies" very soon

[Grand Danois]

You forget that if the USAF cuts the JSF order by half the other half is going to be much more expensive because the development costs still remain.

Unless your R&D part has already been covered through your partnership, in which case I would think "unit procurement cost" apply and not "program aquisition unit cost" or PAUC.

My impression is that the Unit procurement cost for the F-35 will be less than half that of the F-22, and with the PAUC for the F-22 being absolutely horrendous due to the so far limited number of platforms being procured. (And perhaps only 123 actually being funded so far despite the 183 being planned?)

But OTOH F-22 exports would go under the Foreign Military Sales and should thus also be available at unit procurement cost...

Just a thought or am I way off?

http://straylight.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode10/usc_sec_10_00002432----000-.html

 

[Occum]

I would think you are right on the money. Under FMS, the unit price would be the unit procurement cost paid by the US military plus the FMS admin charge which was recently increased to 3.58% and is negotiable. Since the unit procurement cost for the last 4 aircraft of the current production is around US$126 million per aircraft, any follow on production (such as the 40 to 80 for the USAF as recommended by the report commissioned by Gordon England, the Deputy Secretary of Defense) would benefit from further lessons learned reductions in production costs. A production of 260 Raptors would likely see the unit flyaway cost (UFC) for later build F-22s drop below US$100 million per aircraft.



ps. Nice to see some more factual reference material in a post to this thread/forum. Makes for a pleasant change.

 

[contedicavour]

Based on current budgetary figures, if the JSF orders were cut by half, the US DoD could afford to buy over 1,000 Raptors. Based on recent rumblings that the JSF Program Budget is likely to bust through the US$300bn figure by September this year (if not sooner), this figure would move closer to 1,300+ Raptors.

Could you explain your calculation please ?
I don't come up with the same numbers, even if I use the equation "cost of 1 JSF = 50% of cost of 1 F-22".
Besides, be careful with the impact on the US industry : if less JSFs were built, unit costs would skyrocket, and most of the foreign partners in the JSF programme would quit. UK, Italy, Denmark, Norway can all buy Typhoon instead (with increased CAS capabilities). The USAF and USN would end up with the remaining JSFs costing (by unit) as much as a F-22 !!

That is, unless the USAF made the F-22 available for export and managed to reduce unit costs by increasing numbers. However over here in Europe we still wouldn't be interested in buying F-22s since Typhoons are more than enough for air-to-air combat.

cheers

 

[long live usa]

The joke was how easily the Iraqi airforce was shot out of the sky. I didn't say anything about ground strikes.

i agree with you on that the iraqi airforce was pitiful ,but there was a myth going around that an iraqi MiG 25 shot down an f-18 hornet i think it was a SAM what's your opinion?

 

[Scorpion82]

i agree with you on that the iraqi airforce was pitiful ,but there was a myth going around that an iraqi MiG 25 shot down an f-18 hornet i think it was a SAM what's your opinion?

Maybe the MiG-25 pilot made a lucky shot, why not?

 

[Occum]

Calculations

Could you explain your calculation please ?
I don't come up with the same numbers, even if I use the equation "cost of 1 JSF = 50% of cost of 1 F-22".

Hi Contedicavour -

This is purely a hypothetical on what else could be done with half the current JSF Procurement Budget.

Arithmetic based onProcurement Budgets and Unit Procurement Cost for Raptor at end of current production of 184 units (US$126million) adjusted for increase in numbers and resulting learned out cost (UFC<US$100m).

Current JSF Procurement Budget > US$230bn.

Your point on increase of JSF production cost is valid and should, hopefully, bring out some interesting comments.

BTW, GAO report puts early JSF procurement costs at around US$130million per unit.

Hope this helps.

 

[Brutus Caesar]

At current exchange rates that would put the JSF at roughly $AU170,405,301. Given the budget for Australian procurement of the JSF is around $AU12 billion, that equates to no more than 70 aircraft at the very most. Even if that is bumped up to 13billion as I have seen in some reports it is still only around 75 aircraft.

 

[Brutus Caesar]

Sorry, just on that estimated 70-75 aircraft range. I've read Houston's report on why the JSF is the right choice for Australia and all of his reasoning was based around having 100+ aircraft. I would imagine that the preliminary decision by the government and defence to invest in the program was also based on this estimation. Surely such a significant drop in numbers would have a serious bearing on previous assessment.

 

[Big-E]

i agree with you on that the iraqi airforce was pitiful ,but there was a myth going around that an iraqi MiG 25 shot down an f-18 hornet i think it was a SAM what's your opinion?

If anybody can fly out of the notch of an AMRAAM it's a Foxbat.

 

[Magoo]

Maybe the MiG-25 pilot made a lucky shot, why not?

Did you guys have AMRAAMs in GW1? I thought they entered service in 93?

Magoo

 

[Big-E]

Did you guys have AMRAAMs in GW1? I thought they entered service in 93?

Magoo

Deployment began in 91'.

 

[Magoo]

Deployment began in 91'.

So, in time for GW1 which was in Jan/Feb 91?

Magoo

 

[Big-E]

So, in time for GW1 which was in Jan/Feb 91?

Magoo

Considering I was young (and stupid) enough to think Vanilla Ice could come up with an original hit, I can't vouch for anything for that time.

 

[Scorpion82]

Did you guys have AMRAAMs in GW1? I thought they entered service in 93?

Magoo

I'm not from the US .
As Big-E mentioned deployment of the AMRAAM began in 1991. If I remember right it was a F-16D making the kill with an AMRAAM in 1992. The enemy downed was an iraqi MiG-25.

 

[Occum]

Costings

Did you guys have AMRAAMs in GW1? I thought they entered service in 93?

Magoo

fftopic


Getting back on subject, what are your thoughts on the costing issues on the F-22 and the JSF now that the data are out there, for example, in the form of Congressional budgetary and GAO reports?

Is AA now going to do a detailed and rigorous analysis of the material to keep its readers properly informed and add value to the debate?

 

[Magoo]

fftopic

Perhaps, perhaps not. But it was relevant in the context of what was being said.

Getting back on subject, what are your thoughts on the costing issues on the F-22 and the JSF now that the data are out there, for example, in the form of Congressional budgetary and GAO reports?

Is AA now going to do a detailed and rigorous analysis of the material to keep its readers properly informed and add value to the debate?

First of all, we'll wait for the US FY07 budget to be signed off and handed down (late May/early June?) before analysing anything. THEN, when I get back from Europe and have got the time, I'll wade through it and see if there's anything worth writing about. THEN, we'll probably have to get someone who has a much better brain than mine to write the analysis.

Obviously, the F-22 vs F-35 thing is alot more than just the platform's cost. And, the problem with writing such an analysis is, we can only base our work on unclassified and publicly available documentation, plus perhaps a bit of hearsay. There's obviously alot more stuff which isn't 'out there' yet which we don't have access to and are unlikely to for some time.

My personal opinion is, it's still early days for JSF. Before writing an in-depth analysis on the rights or wrongs of proceeding with the aircraft, I think it would be better to wait until government is actually due to sign for the aircraft which is probably still two years away. To date, we have only committed to the development program which, in my opinion, is money well spent to remain an "informed customer."

Magoo

 

[Occum]

Good Money After Bad

Perhaps, perhaps not. But it was relevant in the context of what was being said.



First of all, we'll wait for the US FY07 budget to be signed off and handed down (late May/early June?) before analysing anything. THEN, when I get back from Europe and have got the time, I'll wade through it and see if there's anything worth writing about. THEN, we'll probably have to get someone who has a much better brain than mine to write the analysis.

Obviously, the F-22 vs F-35 thing is alot more than just the platform's cost. And, the problem with writing such an analysis is, we can only base our work on unclassified and publicly available documentation, plus perhaps a bit of hearsay. There's obviously alot more stuff which isn't 'out there' yet which we don't have access to and are unlikely to for some time.

My personal opinion is, it's still early days for JSF. Before writing an in-depth analysis on the rights or wrongs of proceeding with the aircraft, I think it would be better to wait until government is actually due to sign for the aircraft which is probably still two years away. To date, we have only committed to the development program which, in my opinion, is money well spent to remain an "informed customer."

Magoo

But the real skill is in doing the analyses (OA, capablity, cost benefit and risk) - before waiting to be told by someone else - to enable the due diligence and right 'business case' predictions to be made.

From what I have read so far, it does not seem our 'informed customer' seems capable of doing this. Just like the Super Sea Sprite, this looks like throwing good money after bad to me.

:coffee

 

[PLA2025]

Japan not US's trusted ally!

Sorry but the US does not consider Japan as a trusted ally. They need Japan as a strategic partner to maintain control and balance in the pacific but they know that giving Japan too much room for building a strong military that would improve the capability to fight offensive wars in Asia might be not the scenario the US would like to see.
Trusted allies of the US are the Brits and the Israelis, but not Japanese although the relationship between their leaders seem to be very fine.
The possible plan to sell the F/A-22A Raptor seem to be motivated by the high costs of the plane. Selling some (or many) of the Raptors to trusted allies would lower the production costs a bit. But I wonder whether the exported versions would be equal to the domestic Raptors then.
I mean, it would not be wise to sell the best weapons to others, even if they are so-called trusted allies. The JSF should be good enough for US allies IMO.
The Europeans are working on their own 5th gen fighter plane, Russia works on their Pak-Fa and China on their J-XX.

 

[contedicavour]

Sorry but the US does not consider Japan as a trusted ally. They need Japan as a strategic partner to maintain control and balance in the pacific but they know that giving Japan too much room for building a strong military that would improve the capability to fight offensive wars in Asia might be not the scenario the US would like to see.
Trusted allies of the US are the Brits and the Israelis, but not Japanese although the relationship between their leaders seem to be very fine.
The possible plan to sell the F/A-22A Raptor seem to be motivated by the high costs of the plane. Selling some (or many) of the Raptors to trusted allies would lower the production costs a bit. But I wonder whether the exported versions would be equal to the domestic Raptors then.
I mean, it would not be wise to sell the best weapons to others, even if they are so-called trusted allies. The JSF should be good enough for US allies IMO.
The Europeans are working on their own 5th gen fighter plane, Russia works on their Pak-Fa and China on their J-XX.

IMHO Japan (with Koizumi, let's see who replaces him) is a trusted ally and will inevitably become closer to the US as the military force of China and both Koreas increases.
The issue is more with the competition Japanese industry could create once it were to integrate bits of the technologies the F-22 programme has created....

cheers

 

[Big-E]

IMHO Japan (with Koizumi, let's see who replaces him) is a trusted ally and will inevitably become closer to the US as the military force of China and both Koreas increases.
The issue is more with the competition Japanese industry could create once it were to integrate bits of the technologies the F-22 programme has created....

cheers

While I do not have insider information on this deal, I do know the feeling the DoD has of releasing technology and I have to say IMHO the F-22 will stay a US platform only for years to come. Just look at how long it took them to transfer the codes to UK on JSF.