United States Defense Thread

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I've been lurking and keeping quiet ever since my CNN link faux pas, but as an American, would like to add a bit of -- nuance? Is that the right word? -- to the discussion of the power grid attacks.

First, a bit of background. We have a serious problem with mental illness in my country, and do not deal with it properly, and in my opinion, we certainly do not deal with it humanely. We dismantled our mental health system back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and never enacted the promised reforms or funded the alternate means of help as promised. Hence, mentally ill people were just dumped in the streets and comprise the majority of our growing homeless population and a goodly proportion of our prison population (our law enforcement folks also think it inhumane and lament they are not equipped to treat these mentally-ill prisoners). It's heartbreaking what families of the mentally ill go through in trying to get help for their loved ones, only to fail.

We also have various small but troublesome extremist groups, on both the far right and far left, that attract more nutters. The majority of in-the-news incidents, such as mass shootings, turn out to be committed by mentally-ill people after much agitation in our media about their having some political motivation or other. As in paranoid schizophrenics, etc. Serious organic mental illnesses. Most mentally-ill people tend to be victims of crime, rather than perpetrators, but a small subset commit crimes. And those who do often pick up on and act out whatever is "in the air" around them, whether some whacky alt-right site or loony enviro-activist bunch. They also commit copycat crimes (why our mass shootings tend to happen in clusters).

The incidents in the Seattle and Portland areas may well be people who are mentally ill. They might possibly be enviro-activists or crazed Climate Change activists who have a few screws loose. It's possible the ones responsible are far right wingnuts, but such people are incredibly rare in those areas. Both are bastions of the far left, and much farther left than say, New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.. There are some far right loons in the far east of Washington State, but such are *very* rare birds around Seattle and Portland.

My take on it: Who knows who is doing this in the Seattle-Portland area? Could be just about any bunch of nutters. Or lone copycat nutters.

As for the incidents in the Carolinas, it could be alt-right nuts (they have them there), could be good ol' boys out in their pickup truck with a twelve-pack of Bud ("Hold muh beer, Bubba, and watch this"), could be a disgruntled employee or one looking for overtime, a whacko guy who was ticked off over having his power cut off after forgetting to pay his bill -- so many possibilities. I doubt it was leftist enviro-activist crazies as they are rare there, but I suppose as possible as far right crazies in Seattle-Portland area. The South Carolina incident looks like it could be a copycat after the North Carolina attacks -- possibly just drunken Bubbas.


As our FBI is intensively surveilling and infiltrating far-right groups, and given that they have come up with zero suspects so far, I think it doubtful an organized far-right group is responsible, but could be far-right lone wolves. Could be enviro-activists in the Seattle-Portland areas. Likely lone wbackos or drunks in the Carolinas. We simply don't know. As for Russian interference, I seriously doubt it, although it's possible. Seems to me the Russians would go more for DC or NY or somewhere like that, not Seattle -Portland or the boonies of the Carolinas. I doubt Russia would need to bother. We have quite enough loonies without them, especially in Seattle and Portland and the Carolina backwoods.

In other words, I would not get too worked up over this at this point.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Reg
I've been lurking and keeping quiet ever since my CNN link faux pas, but as an American, would like to add a bit of -- nuance? Is that the right word? -- to the discussion of the power grid attacks.

First, a bit of background. We have a serious problem with mental illness in my country, and do not deal with it properly, and in my opinion, we certainly do not deal with it humanely. We dismantled our mental health system back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and never enacted the promised reforms or funded the alternate means of help as promised. Hence, mentally ill people were just dumped in the streets and comprise the majority of our growing homeless population and a goodly proportion of our prison population (our law enforcement folks also think it inhumane and lament they are not equipped to treat these mentally-ill prisoners). It's heartbreaking what families of the mentally ill go through in trying to get help for their loved ones, only to fail.

We also have various small but troublesome extremist groups, on both the far right and far left, that attract more nutters. The majority of in-the-news incidents, such as mass shootings, turn out to be committed by mentally-ill people after much agitation in our media about their having some political motivation or other. As in paranoid schizophrenics, etc. Serious organic mental illnesses. Most mentally-ill people tend to be victims of crime, rather than perpetrators, but a small subset commit crimes. And those who do often pick up on and act out whatever is "in the air" around them, whether some whacky alt-right site or loony enviro-activist bunch. They also commit copycat crimes (why our mass shootings tend to happen in clusters).

The incidents in the Seattle and Portland areas may well be people who are mentally ill. They might possibly be enviro-activists or crazed Climate Change activists who have a few screws loose. It's possible the ones responsible are far right wingnuts, but such people are incredibly rare in those areas. Both are bastions of the far left, and much farther left than say, New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.. There are some far right loons in the far east of Washington State, but such are *very* rare birds around Seattle and Portland.

My take on it: Who knows who is doing this in the Seattle-Portland area? Could be just about any bunch of nutters. Or lone copycat nutters.

As for the incidents in the Carolinas, it could be alt-right nuts (they have them there), could be good ol' boys out in their pickup truck with a twelve-pack of Bud ("Hold muh beer, Bubba, and watch this"), could be a disgruntled employee or one looking for overtime, a whacko guy who was ticked off over having his power cut off after forgetting to pay his bill -- so many possibilities. I doubt it was leftist enviro-activist crazies as they are rare there, but I suppose as possible as far right crazies in Seattle-Portland area. The South Carolina incident looks like it could be a copycat after the North Carolina attacks -- possibly just drunken Bubbas.


As our FBI is intensively surveilling and infiltrating far-right groups, and given that they have come up with zero suspects so far, I think it doubtful an organized far-right group is responsible, but could be far-right lone wolves. Could be enviro-activists in the Seattle-Portland areas. Likely lone wbackos or drunks in the Carolinas. We simply don't know. As for Russian interference, I seriously doubt it, although it's possible. Seems to me the Russians would go more for DC or NY or somewhere like that, not Seattle -Portland or the boonies of the Carolinas. I doubt Russia would need to bother. We have quite enough loonies without them, especially in Seattle and Portland and the Carolina backwoods.

In other words, I would not get too worked up over this at this point.
Regardless of the source for these attacks, they illustrate the vulnerability of the grid. No domestic production of HV transformers combined with very long delivery times is a huge potential problem. An extreme solar event could result in a nonfunctional grid lasting several years which would lead to a breakdown of civilization.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I've been lurking and keeping quiet ever since my CNN link faux pas, but as an American, would like to add a bit of -- nuance? Is that the right word? -- to the discussion of the power grid attacks.

First, a bit of background. We have a serious problem with mental illness in my country, and do not deal with it properly, and in my opinion, we certainly do not deal with it humanely. We dismantled our mental health system back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and never enacted the promised reforms or funded the alternate means of help as promised. Hence, mentally ill people were just dumped in the streets and comprise the majority of our growing homeless population and a goodly proportion of our prison population (our law enforcement folks also think it inhumane and lament they are not equipped to treat these mentally-ill prisoners). It's heartbreaking what families of the mentally ill go through in trying to get help for their loved ones, only to fail.

We also have various small but troublesome extremist groups, on both the far right and far left, that attract more nutters. The majority of in-the-news incidents, such as mass shootings, turn out to be committed by mentally-ill people after much agitation in our media about their having some political motivation or other. As in paranoid schizophrenics, etc. Serious organic mental illnesses. Most mentally-ill people tend to be victims of crime, rather than perpetrators, but a small subset commit crimes. And those who do often pick up on and act out whatever is "in the air" around them, whether some whacky alt-right site or loony enviro-activist bunch. They also commit copycat crimes (why our mass shootings tend to happen in clusters).

The incidents in the Seattle and Portland areas may well be people who are mentally ill. They might possibly be enviro-activists or crazed Climate Change activists who have a few screws loose. It's possible the ones responsible are far right wingnuts, but such people are incredibly rare in those areas. Both are bastions of the far left, and much farther left than say, New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.. There are some far right loons in the far east of Washington State, but such are *very* rare birds around Seattle and Portland.

My take on it: Who knows who is doing this in the Seattle-Portland area? Could be just about any bunch of nutters. Or lone copycat nutters.

As for the incidents in the Carolinas, it could be alt-right nuts (they have them there), could be good ol' boys out in their pickup truck with a twelve-pack of Bud ("Hold muh beer, Bubba, and watch this"), could be a disgruntled employee or one looking for overtime, a whacko guy who was ticked off over having his power cut off after forgetting to pay his bill -- so many possibilities. I doubt it was leftist enviro-activist crazies as they are rare there, but I suppose as possible as far right crazies in Seattle-Portland area. The South Carolina incident looks like it could be a copycat after the North Carolina attacks -- possibly just drunken Bubbas.


As our FBI is intensively surveilling and infiltrating far-right groups, and given that they have come up with zero suspects so far, I think it doubtful an organized far-right group is responsible, but could be far-right lone wolves. Could be enviro-activists in the Seattle-Portland areas. Likely lone wbackos or drunks in the Carolinas. We simply don't know. As for Russian interference, I seriously doubt it, although it's possible. Seems to me the Russians would go more for DC or NY or somewhere like that, not Seattle -Portland or the boonies of the Carolinas. I doubt Russia would need to bother. We have quite enough loonies without them, especially in Seattle and Portland and the Carolina backwoods.

In other words, I would not get too worked up over this at this point.
I am not quite so quick to dismiss the possibility of involvement by domestic organized groups of Far/Alt Right, though I consider it unlikely that the incidents involved would be the work of a single group with national membership. It could definitely be the work of some of the smaller, 'local' groups which are known to exist in a number of areas. Most would likely consider (correctly IMO) that the Seattle-Portland areas would be more of less left-leaning, one also needs to remember that a number of the non-urban areas in the Pacific Northwest are very active with people who would be Far/Alt Right. Eastern Washington state being one such area, as well as part of Idaho just over the border, and similar such affiliations have existed in this region for decades.

I also would not dismiss the potential if interference from Russia or any other US adversary either, though if there was interference, IMO it would be unlikely to involve material support. One has to keep in mind the roles played by Internet mediums and social media, particularly in enabling groups, often small in size, to be able to connect and communicate with others who possess similar view points and philosophies, despite there being vast differences in the physical locations of these groups. Outside groups could potentially influence an outcome by providing the medium or channel over which discussion and exchanges of information takes place (like the locations of vulnerable/exposed substations) and well as by providing encouragement for participants to go and take action. A phenomenon which AFAIK is still being looked into is how susceptible some are to being in an echo chamber-like environment online, whereby they become convinced that fringe ideas are much more popular than they really are, just because small groups of people agree with and amp up the idea. A user or even the right botnet could easily be posting from outside the US to stir up trouble domestically.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #244
I've been lurking and keeping quiet ever since my CNN link faux pas, but as an American, would like to add a bit of -- nuance? Is that the right word? -- to the discussion of the power grid attacks.

First, a bit of background. We have a serious problem with mental illness in my country, and do not deal with it properly, and in my opinion, we certainly do not deal with it humanely. We dismantled our mental health system back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and never enacted the promised reforms or funded the alternate means of help as promised. Hence, mentally ill people were just dumped in the streets and comprise the majority of our growing homeless population and a goodly proportion of our prison population (our law enforcement folks also think it inhumane and lament they are not equipped to treat these mentally-ill prisoners). It's heartbreaking what families of the mentally ill go through in trying to get help for their loved ones, only to fail.

We also have various small but troublesome extremist groups, on both the far right and far left, that attract more nutters. The majority of in-the-news incidents, such as mass shootings, turn out to be committed by mentally-ill people after much agitation in our media about their having some political motivation or other. As in paranoid schizophrenics, etc. Serious organic mental illnesses. Most mentally-ill people tend to be victims of crime, rather than perpetrators, but a small subset commit crimes. And those who do often pick up on and act out whatever is "in the air" around them, whether some whacky alt-right site or loony enviro-activist bunch. They also commit copycat crimes (why our mass shootings tend to happen in clusters).

The incidents in the Seattle and Portland areas may well be people who are mentally ill. They might possibly be enviro-activists or crazed Climate Change activists who have a few screws loose. It's possible the ones responsible are far right wingnuts, but such people are incredibly rare in those areas. Both are bastions of the far left, and much farther left than say, New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.. There are some far right loons in the far east of Washington State, but such are *very* rare birds around Seattle and Portland.

My take on it: Who knows who is doing this in the Seattle-Portland area? Could be just about any bunch of nutters. Or lone copycat nutters.

As for the incidents in the Carolinas, it could be alt-right nuts (they have them there), could be good ol' boys out in their pickup truck with a twelve-pack of Bud ("Hold muh beer, Bubba, and watch this"), could be a disgruntled employee or one looking for overtime, a whacko guy who was ticked off over having his power cut off after forgetting to pay his bill -- so many possibilities. I doubt it was leftist enviro-activist crazies as they are rare there, but I suppose as possible as far right crazies in Seattle-Portland area. The South Carolina incident looks like it could be a copycat after the North Carolina attacks -- possibly just drunken Bubbas.


As our FBI is intensively surveilling and infiltrating far-right groups, and given that they have come up with zero suspects so far, I think it doubtful an organized far-right group is responsible, but could be far-right lone wolves. Could be enviro-activists in the Seattle-Portland areas. Likely lone wbackos or drunks in the Carolinas. We simply don't know. As for Russian interference, I seriously doubt it, although it's possible. Seems to me the Russians would go more for DC or NY or somewhere like that, not Seattle -Portland or the boonies of the Carolinas. I doubt Russia would need to bother. We have quite enough loonies without them, especially in Seattle and Portland and the Carolina backwoods.

In other words, I would not get too worked up over this at this point.
You don't have exclusivity on the 'good ole boys' sinking a few brews and taking pot shots at things. When I was young and mad we used to sink a lot of brews and take pot shots at road signs, street lights etc. Street lights could be hit with a slug gun until the Borough Council and County Council bought toughened plastic lens covers. In town the boys had to resort to silenced .22s but in the country shotguns, .22, or .303 took care of them. Many of us were bought up around firearms and taught to use them by dads and uncles who were WW2 veterans, so we were taught properly. That was 50 odd years ago when Kiwi society was different and you were very unlucky if you got done for drink driving. Had to be 21, then 20 to legally go to the pub. Didn't stop us. Nowadays if you have a firearm in public somebody is bound to call the cops and you'll be surrounded by the armed offenders squad, loose you firearm, any others you own, and your firearms license.

I get what you're saying about the nutter(s) shooting up the transformers etc. You are correct in your assumptions, however I also have a suspicious mind when it comes to things security and military.
 

At lakes

Well-Known Member
You don't have exclusivity on the 'good ole boys' sinking a few brews and taking pot shots at things. When I was young and mad we used to sink a lot of brews and take pot shots at road signs, street lights etc. Street lights could be hit with a slug gun until the Borough Council and County Council bought toughened plastic lens covers. In town the boys had to resort to silenced .22s but in the country shotguns, .22, or .303 took care of them. Many of us were bought up around firearms and taught to use them by dads and uncles who were WW2 veterans, so we were taught properly. That was 50 odd years ago when Kiwi society was different and you were very unlucky if you got done for drink driving. Had to be 21, then 20 to legally go to the pub. Didn't stop us. Nowadays if you have a firearm in public somebody is bound to call the cops and you'll be surrounded by the armed offenders squad, loose you firearm, any others you own, and your firearms license.

I get what you're saying about the nutter(s) shooting up the transformers etc. You are correct in your assumptions, however I also have a suspicious mind when it comes to things security and military.
Geez what a ratbag you were growing up, the worst we ever did was ring the local alcoholics anonymous and ask to speak to the barman.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #246
Geez what a ratbag you were growing up, the worst we ever did was ring the local alcoholics anonymous and ask to speak to the barman.
I grew up in a rural area in the bottom half of the South Island. It was when the cops used to give you a hiding behind the police cells rather than running you in because it saved on the paperwork. Contrary to popular opinion that habit of the cops stopped quite a few young fullas from becoming crims. When I was 16 I was drunk and bad mouthed the local Senior Sergeant, which was a very stupid idea. He took me around the back of the cells and taught me about manners and being nice to people in uniform. My mum wasn't happy, but my dad said that I had deserved every bit of it (I did), that I was very stupid for saying such things to the Snr Sgt to his face, and that I had also forgot the cardinal rule that he taught me years before. Don't get caught. Mum revved him up about the last one, big time.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I grew up in a rural area in the bottom half of the South Island. It was when the cops used to give you a hiding behind the police cells rather than running you in because it saved on the paperwork. Contrary to popular opinion that habit of the cops stopped quite a few young fullas from becoming crims. When I was 16 I was drunk and bad mouthed the local Senior Sergeant, which was a very stupid idea. He took me around the back of the cells and taught me about manners and being nice to people in uniform. My mum wasn't happy, but my dad said that I had deserved every bit of it (I did), that I was very stupid for saying such things to the Snr Sgt to his face, and that I had also forgot the cardinal rule that he taught me years before. Don't get caught. Mum revved him up about the last one, big time.
I did not come from the deep south, but grew up at a place called Karioi half way between Ohakune and Waiouru. Bloody cold and we got power when I was 11. In town the rules were the same if you misbehaved except the local bobby usually did not bother to take you back to the station. behind any building would do. complain and your dad would give you a clout for bring the family into disrepute. :)
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
As it has been the subject of discussion here, two have been arrested in the recent vandalism of a electrical substations in Washington state. Cell phone location data led to their apprehension.
Part of a scheme to burglarize a business of it's on hand cash.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #249
As it has been the subject of discussion here, two have been arrested in the recent vandalism of a electrical substations in Washington state. Cell phone location data led to their apprehension.
Part of a scheme to burglarize a business of it's on hand cash.
Fools forgot to turn their cellphones off. :D
 

Terran

Well-Known Member
Dateline, December 2nd 1993.
Notorious Drug lord Pablo Escobar is killed in his home town of Medellin, Columbia ending a decades long reign as the Global Narcotics Emperor. During the last years of his life he spent his time running from hideout to hideout speaking on bags of cellphones and radios. He spent his time trying to dodge the US Intelligence Support Activity whom used a modified King air aircraft that was able to snoop in on cellular communications and Colombian National Police task forces. Among the tricks used by the ISA code named Centre Spike was activation of known cellular telephones by remote to serve as listening devices, even when shut off the phones could be turned back on by remote. Used to eavesdrop and triangulate
Remember this was in the early 1990s almost 30 years ago with “dumb” cell phones.
Word to the would be bad actors, it’s a bad idea don’t do it. Remember none of the romantic rebel crime lords died in their sleep. Pablo Escobar might have reigned like a king for a time but he died at the ripe old 44 living from day to day fearing exactly what happened when he was caught in a crossfire and died like a dog.
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Well this week is getting interesting.
Obviously there is unlikely to be any response other than bold/concerned/angry proclamations, denials and various levels of blame. Maybe some new sanctions. I would expect a significantly lower response than those taken after Iran shot down the RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft in 2019

 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Well this week is getting interesting.
Obviously there is unlikely to be any response other than bold/concerned/angry proclamations, denials and various levels of blame. Maybe some new sanctions. I would expect a significantly lower response than those taken after Iran shot down the RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft in 2019

As I said "bold/concerned/angry proclamations, denials and various levels of blame"

 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Dara Massicot has an informative thread on this incident, with reference to a report she and some other analysts did a few years back. They studied hundreds of incidents. Interestingly the method of dumping fuel on the drone, was new to her.

Well if it’s a MQ9 there will be a high Res video of the incident coming out very soon that should evidence what really happened.
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Well if it’s a MQ9 there will be a high Res video of the incident coming out very soon that should evidence what really happened.
They are working through the declassification process
It was mentioned during the 14 March Pentagon press briefing (not the main focus of the brief).
 
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