Ukranian Crisis

[Twain]

From Bellingcat.com (Brown Moses)

How to Locate a “Secret” Pro-Russian Training Camp

https://bellingcat.com/resources/case-studies/2014/08/15/how-to-locate-a-secret-pro-russian-training-camp/

In late May, BBC published a YouTube Video titled “Secret training base for Ukraine’s militias”. The video highlighted a secret militia camp used to train over 100 new recruits seeking to join the fight in eastern Ukraine. The video was obviously created in such a way as to not give away its location and lucky for us, giving open source investigators a decent challenge




DEAL WITH OBAMA Croatia Ukraine sent military helicopters to fight the Russians

PLAN SAD-A ZA MODERNIZACIJU HRZ-A Hrvatska

Short and sweet version, the US gives Croatia some Blackhawks, Croatia gives Ukraine some MI-8s. Looks like this is a few months from happening but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a few more deals like this in the near future.

 

[Relboon]

Mysteries abound... Buk SAM units that two months ago were in Ukrainian military hands, were spotted inside... Russia.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Дивизион ЗÐ*К "Бук", Ñ Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑ€Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ 331 и 333 ÑоответÑтвенно

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/geo-strategic-issues/ukranian-crisis-12973-87/#ixzz3Aeyxjqnd

This is different machines (different colors, but the same number ? Someone actually took the troubles to repaint the machine AND put the same tactical numbers on it ? ) and possibly different places (hard to tell, but I spent 30 minutes in google street view trying to get the same angle as in the pictures, you can get the same building composition but you end up in totally different place than the picture).

The white trucks is a strange story, but for sure:
1. There is no way it got looted or something else, just because this is a high profile political action, no one is mad enough to steal from such place.
2. It is very unlikely that someone was mad enough to think that this space will be filled with soldiers or some military equipment, why would any one need to do this ? The borders are open.

Just how much old armor do the Ukranians have sitting around? Seems like a bottomless pit at times.

For this war pretty much unlimited I think, the stockpiles was unbelievable in USSR, especially in USR territory. Of course no one knows how much was stolen and sold in 23 years (UA army declined steadily over the independence period ), but I thinks there is still enough in the storage's, the question is "Is it any good ?" I saw many times mentions by UA soldiers about APCs weapons jamming, and I dont know much about armor but I think it looses some of it protective capabilities over 20 years in the hangar.

Uh... Is this real? It looks like a BTR-82A. As far as I know the Ukrainians aren't known to operate the type.

The first one should be delivered in RU army somewhere this year, may be GAZ decided to do a real war test on the new machine ? Nothing better than real fighting tests.

on that basis we would also say that russians haven't been operating or supplying proxies in ukraine .......

And until there is a 100% proof with videos and photos, the Russia hasn`t been helping DNR and LNR in any way, that is the rules that US made for the world. There is countless video, photo and witness materials about Odessa May 2nd event, and yet nobody cares, so even with evidence you still can be left with nothing.

 

[Rimasta]

US: Among other things, It appears Obama is determined to avoid getting the US involved in another war.

Well what can be done reasonably? Open warfare between the United States of America and the Russian Federation would be disastrous, not just for the combatants but for the world as well. Options are limited. The farthest I think Washington could dare take this is to support Kiev financially and bolster the UA with equipment as well as isolating Russia further. I don't regard this as likely, but Russisn soldiers entering the Ukraine could change that. No President wants to be the one that starts a Third World War with the Russians.

 

[Feanor]

The first one should be delivered in RU army somewhere this year, may be GAZ decided to do a real war test on the new machine ? Nothing better than real fighting tests.

No. They've been serially delivered to Russian Army units for the last 3 years. The first deliveries took place to a recon btln in the North Caucus in iirc May or June 2011. The Russian military has plenty of units operating the BTR-82A, and BTR-82AM which is what is in that video.

 

[Feanor]

In this article it again mentions the Russian column destroyed in Ukraine, where are the photos, since there are not photos how can we believe this ever happened?

It didn't. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly claimed that they're fighting against the Russian military, and then failed to provide anything remotely resembling evidence. In one case they went so far as to photoshop tattoos onto a dead rebels body, in an attempt to claim he's a Russina SpetzNaz trooper. They were quickly and demonstratably proven to be lying when the original photo was found, online, pre-dating the Ukrainian publishing of the photoshopped photo. They then promptly took down the publication and the edited photo, and pretended like it was never there.

It's quite possible, even likely, that a Ukrainian arty or air strike hit a column of rebels that had recently crossed into Ukraine.

 

[Relboon]

It's quite possible, even likely, that a Ukrainian arty or air strike hit a column of rebels that had recently crossed into Ukraine.

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/geo-strategic-issues/ukranian-crisis-12973-89/#ixzz3AjNEyfeJ

Or they didn't destroy anything at all

 

[Todjaeger]

It's quite possible, even likely, that a Ukrainian arty or air strike hit a column of rebels that had recently crossed into Ukraine.

Which also presents an 'interesting' question. Who is being defined as a "rebel"?

A citizen of Ukraine resisting or fighting against the government of Ukraine would (normally) be a fairly clear cut example. However, given that Russia granted or offered citizenship to Ukrainians prior to annexing the Crimean, much like the did with some Georgian citizens immediately prior to occupying South Ossentia in 2008, this introduces the whole potential for a person to switch from being a Ukrainian to a Russian citizen, fighting in the Ukraine. And of course the foreign fighters combatting Ukrainian government forces are not rebels, but more likely unlawful combatants participating in an internal conflict.

On a related note, what is the real status of the "Ukrainian" refugees who have crossed the border into Russia? Are they Ukrainian citizens? Are they amongst those taking advantage of the offer of Russian citizenship? Are they looking to return to their homes in the Ukraine? Are they looking to return to their homes, but have those areas be part of Russia?

Between the propaganda, spin, disinformation, and misinformation coming from basically all sides, it makes the situation quite hard to get straight.

Also, please note when I reference Ukrainian vs. Russian citizenship, I am not meaning their ethnicity, but what they have citizenship from, and/or can get issued a passport by.

 

[alexkvaskov]

A second Mig-29 shot down over Krasnodon.

bmpd -

Were they trying to use the bird for CAS? IIRC the early Fulcrums had little in the way of A2G, primarily their gun and rocket pods. They're definitely doing a better job of preserving their Flankers. I'm curious to see what happens when they run out of Frogfoots. Probably not much, in light of the UkrAf's low effectiveness.

 

[swerve]

It's quite possible, even likely, that a Ukrainian arty or air strike hit a column of rebels that had recently crossed into Ukraine.

As said, the definition of rebel is problematic. Consider Strelkov, for example. A Russian from Russia. Not a Ukrainian of Russian ethnicity, nor a Russian of Ukrainian ethnicity, but a Russian of Russian ethnicity.

From all reports, there are many such. The small fragment of the Russian press which doesn't publish what Putin tells them to has claimed that Russians have been recruited in Russia (specifically, in the report I read, in Rostov on Don & surrounding areas) through Russian army recruiting offices, to fight in Ukraine. It reports that recruitment has been active, with potential recruits being contacted directly - e.g. unemployed veterans of Chechnya, Afghanistan & other wars. It looks as if prior experience is considered more important than youth, & the recruiters have access to records of other agencies, which points to a co-ordinated government operation. The reports say that they've been paid & equipped by Russia, & the bodies of some such recruits have been returned to Russia for burial after being killed in Ukraine..

It's hard to see how such people can be called rebels, any more than Strelkov.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Which also presents an 'interesting' question. Who is being defined as a "rebel"?

A citizen of Ukraine resisting or fighting against the government of Ukraine would (normally) be a fairly clear cut example. However, given that Russia granted or offered citizenship to Ukrainians prior to annexing the Crimean, much like the did with some Georgian citizens immediately prior to occupying South Ossentia in 2008, this introduces the whole potential for a person to switch from being a Ukrainian to a Russian citizen, fighting in the Ukraine. And of course the foreign fighters combatting Ukrainian government forces are not rebels, but more likely unlawful combatants participating in an internal conflict.

On a related note, what is the real status of the "Ukrainian" refugees who have crossed the border into Russia? Are they Ukrainian citizens? Are they amongst those taking advantage of the offer of Russian citizenship? Are they looking to return to their homes in the Ukraine? Are they looking to return to their homes, but have those areas be part of Russia?

Between the propaganda, spin, disinformation, and misinformation coming from basically all sides, it makes the situation quite hard to get straight.

Also, please note when I reference Ukrainian vs. Russian citizenship, I am not meaning their ethnicity, but what they have citizenship from, and/or can get issued a passport by.

The offer of Russian citizenship to Ukrainian refugees now residing in Russia is a fairly recent thing, if I recall correctly, so they can settle down and work instead of sitting around being refugees for months on end. One would imagine that only those who don't plan to go back to Ukraine (for whatever reason -- home destroyed, distrust of the government, bleak economic future, etc.) would opt to become Russian citizens. Many Ukrainians, especially those in the east, had been working in Russia for years and years anyway, while retaining Ukrainian citizenship (sort of like Croats working in Germany).

What the plans are of those who have not opted to acquire Russian citizenship we can only guess, but. the most straightforward answer is they probably hope to return home when it's safe and the fighting is over and services have been restored. Putin declined to annex eastern Ukraine when they asked for it, and they probably have no illusions there.

Of course the Ukrainians who have crossed into Russia are Ukrainian citizens, unless they have elected to take up the offer of Russian citizenship. (Can they be dual citizens? I don't know.) I'm not sure why a Ukrainian fighter in Ukraine would leave the fighting, skedaddle over the border as a "refugee" to claim Russian citizenship, and then return to the front in Ukraine. It doesn't make sense, but I suppose it's possible a few individuals may have done so.

Yes, all the disinformation from all sides does make for a confusing mix! That's why I'm especially grateful for this sane place and Feanor's excellent updates and analysis.

As said, the definition of rebel is problematic. Consider Strelkov, for example. A Russian from Russia. Not a Ukrainian of Russian ethnicity, nor a Russian of Ukrainian ethnicity, but a Russian of Russian ethnicity.

From all reports, there are many such. The small fragment of the Russian press which doesn't publish what Putin tells them to has claimed that Russians have been recruited in Russia (specifically, in the report I read, in Rostov on Don & surrounding areas) through Russian army recruiting offices, to fight in Ukraine. It reports that recruitment has been active, with potential recruits being contacted directly - e.g. unemployed veterans of Chechnya, Afghanistan & other wars. It looks as if prior experience is considered more important than youth, & the recruiters have access to records of other agencies, which points to a co-ordinated government operation. The reports say that they've been paid & equipped by Russia, & the bodies of some such recruits have been returned to Russia for burial after being killed in Ukraine..

It's hard to see how such people can be called rebels, any more than Strelkov.

My Russian is pretty rusty these days, but what I've read is that "the rebels" have set up recruiting stations inside Russia, not that they are being recruited *directly* through the Russian Army. I've no doubt that perhaps the Russian military establishment may be assisting the effort by way of providing contacts, checking records of applicants, etc., behind the scenes, but I simply haven't seen the reports you mention. That's interesting. Could you provide a link or source?

 

[Feanor]

As said, the definition of rebel is problematic. Consider Strelkov, for example. A Russian from Russia. Not a Ukrainian of Russian ethnicity, nor a Russian of Ukrainian ethnicity, but a Russian of Russian ethnicity.

From all reports, there are many such. The small fragment of the Russian press which doesn't publish what Putin tells them to has claimed that Russians have been recruited in Russia (specifically, in the report I read, in Rostov on Don & surrounding areas) through Russian army recruiting offices, to fight in Ukraine. It reports that recruitment has been active, with potential recruits being contacted directly - e.g. unemployed veterans of Chechnya, Afghanistan & other wars. It looks as if prior experience is considered more important than youth, & the recruiters have access to records of other agencies, which points to a co-ordinated government operation. The reports say that they've been paid & equipped by Russia, & the bodies of some such recruits have been returned to Russia for burial after being killed in Ukraine..

It's hard to see how such people can be called rebels, any more than Strelkov.

See below.

Which also presents an 'interesting' question. Who is being defined as a "rebel"?

When I say "rebel" I'm talking about the fighters in Eastern Ukraine, not wearing a state uniform or insignia, and not formally belonging to a state military or paramilitary. It's not a defining term, rather a term of convenience for referring to those actors.

A citizen of Ukraine resisting or fighting against the government of Ukraine would (normally) be a fairly clear cut example. However, given that Russia granted or offered citizenship to Ukrainians prior to annexing the Crimean, much like the did with some Georgian citizens immediately prior to occupying South Ossentia in 2008, this introduces the whole potential for a person to switch from being a Ukrainian to a Russian citizen, fighting in the Ukraine. And of course the foreign fighters combatting Ukrainian government forces are not rebels, but more likely unlawful combatants participating in an internal conflict.

No. Ossetians were receiving Russian citizenship long before the 2008 war. Many of them established (quite easily) residence status in North Ossetia, and got citizenship that way. Many received it during the 90s during the passport handouts in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR. This has not been taking place in Ukraine. In Crimea in particular Russian passports were handed out after occupation and effective annexation, not before. Completely different situations vis-a-vis the citizenship issue.

On a related note, what is the real status of the "Ukrainian" refugees who have crossed the border into Russia? Are they Ukrainian citizens? Are they amongst those taking advantage of the offer of Russian citizenship? Are they looking to return to their homes in the Ukraine? Are they looking to return to their homes, but have those areas be part of Russia?

All of the above. Out of the 500 000, only ~50 000 are refugees by status, meaning they're Ukrainian citizens who've temporarily surrendered their national passport in exchange for a formal refugee status, and government aid. Many more have taken advantage of individual offers by various Russian governors and mayors, for employment and housing for refugees without needing a formal refugee status or Russian citizenship. Some already had Russian citizenship (illegally since Ukraine doesn't allow Russian citizenship, but hey... it's the FSU). In addition to this Ukrainians don't need visas to enter Russia, and their stay inside Russia is not really controlled. Meaning they can leave the fighting, enter Russia, and stay indefinitely. This is made easier by the fact that most of them have relatives and friends inside Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Another map, provided by a pro-rebel source. Accuracy is questionable at best.

Блог Ивана ОктÑбрÑ-КолорадÑкого - Главком Стрелков к бою за Харьков готов

Stanitsa Luganskaya has been taken by Kiev troops.

Ð’ Станицу ЛуганÑкую вошла украинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ°

Another downed Ukrainian MiG-29.

bmpd -
militarizm:

Ukrainian special Naval forces were spotted in the civil war in the east. Given that their specialties hardly apply to the current conflict, this is a sign of desperation.

bmpd -

12 soldiers of the 25th Airmobile Bde died from arty fire, in a single incident.

12

A destroyed Airmobile troop formation. Warning, graphic video footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oidlySgqW1A

Shelling of Donestk is continuing, another 4 civilians are reported dead.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêå íå ïðåêðàùàþòñÿ îáñòðåëû, ïîãèáëî íå ìåíåå 4 ìåñòíûõ æèòåëåé

Some Don Cossacks have been killed among the rebels, with allegedly looted jewelry found on their bodies.

zloy_odessit -

On Saturday more Ukrainian military crossed into Russia, to escape. They've since been returned to Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ âåðíóëà íà ðîäèíó ïåðåøåäøèõ ãðàíèöó óêðàèíñêèõ âîåííîñëóæàùèõ

A column of Russian trucks and APCs "donated" to the rebels.

https://imageshack.com/i/ex39fsm2j
https://imageshack.com/i/exGws6FMj
https://imageshack.com/i/hjZKiWN1j
https://imageshack.com/i/f0a4TPpjj

Rebels have been spotted operating the Msta-B howitzer, T-72Bs, and Strela-10s.

bmpd - "

Rebel BTR-82AM and T-72B. Clearly Russian supplied.

bmpd -

A summary of destroyed armor from rebel and government side. It's likely incomplete, but interesting none the less.

Lost Armour | Потери бронетехники

Croatia may hand over the Mi-8MTV-1 to Ukraine, and receive UH-60 Blackhawks from the US. However some Serbian sources claim that a lot of the helicopters are in non-flyable condition so not all can be handed over.

Ð¥Ð¾Ñ€Ð²Ð°Ñ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ€ÑƒÐµÑ‚ отказатьÑÑ Ð¾Ñ‚ вертолетов Ми-8МТВ-1 и передать их Украине
bmpd -

Rebel gunjeep.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - ББМ

Rebel fighters from the LNR, near Krasnodon.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² КраÑнодоне, бойцы ЛÐР

Rebels in Shahtersk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ðет, Ñто не S.T.A.L.K.E.R. а вÑего-лишь ШахтерÑк

A train of Russian 2S3 Akatsiya SP Arty, headed towards Ukraine.

Добро пожаловать в журнал РоÑтовÑкого Орла - Эшелон Ñ ÐкациÑми

Russian Buk missiles headed towards Ukraine, in transport containers.

zloy_odessit -

Russian humanitarian aid will enter Ukraine in groups of 30 trucks, after inspection by the Red Cross.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãóìàíèòàðíóþ ïîìîùü èç ÐÔ áóäóò ïðîïóñêàòü íà Óêðàèíó ïàðòèÿìè ïî 30 ìàøèí

Russia is considering limiting imports on European industrial goods.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÐÔ ìîæåò ââåñòè çàïðåò íà èìïîðò ïðîìûøëåííûõ òîâàðîâ èç ÑØÀ è ÅÑ, óòâåðæäàþò èñòî÷íèêè

Anti-war rallies are going on in Under-Carpathians. At the same time Rightctivists have made attempts to seize government buildings in Uzhgorod. They also report that ~1500 Ukrainian troops have been brought into the region. Locals say that the soldiers are drunk, undisciplined, and not locals.

 

Testing of cage armor on a BTR-80, and a BTR-70 medical evacuator.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ИÑÐ¿Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð¾ÐºÑƒÐ¼ÑƒÐ»Ñтивных Ñкранов

Chechens in the Ukrainian military.

zloy_odessit -

Ukraine has requested direct military air from the west.

Турчинов попроÑил Запад передать Украине боевые Ñамолеты и ÑредÑтва ПВО

 

[Twain]

Well what can be done reasonably? Open warfare between the United States of America and the Russian Federation would be disastrous, not just for the combatants but for the world as well. Options are limited. The farthest I think Washington could dare take this is to support Kiev financially and bolster the UA with equipment as well as isolating Russia further. I don't regard this as likely, but Russisn soldiers entering the Ukraine could change that. No President wants to be the one that starts a Third World War with the Russians.

Oh there's a lot than can be done. It's not like the US and Russia/USSR haven't engaged in proxy wars before without starting WWIII. A few things the US and or Europe could assist in that the Ukraine gov't seems to be having trouble with.


1. Ukraine has a serious problems with Russian spies in the gov't and military. They could be quite helpful in uncovering these people.

2. Ukraine is using old russian communications equipment so the mercenaries can listen in on all the UA's communications.

3. The UA needs help in intelligence and how to respond quickly to real time or near real time intelligence

That's just what comes to mind at the moment and none of them involve direct military intervention.

 

[Feanor]

Oh there's a lot than can be done. It's not like the US and Russia/USSR haven't engaged in proxy wars before without starting WWIII. A few things the US and or Europe could assist in that the Ukraine gov't seems to be having trouble with.

Well does the EU want to be in a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine? I honestly don't think it's worth it.

1. Ukraine has a serious problems with Russian spies in the gov't and military. They could be quite helpful in uncovering these people.

What makes you say that?

2. Ukraine is using old russian communications equipment so the mercenaries can listen in on all the UA's communications.

Right. Let's give Ukraine top notch western gear... no way it'll get captured by separatists, or get sold to Russia by corrupt officers, or get inspected and it's secrets stolen by Russian spies.

3. The UA needs help in intelligence and how to respond quickly to real time or near real time intelligence

The EU and US can certainly help with intel, but can they help with the deep institutional reforms the Ukrainian military needs, in the middle of a war? Is that even the best way to win this war? So far Ukraine has been winning through superior resources. If you really want to bolster their military, wouldn't that be the simplest and most direct way of doing so? Give them more gear, weapons, and munitions. They will mobilize more of their own people, and eventually beat the rebels into submission or destruction.

 

[Relboon]

US already help UA in the form of PMCs, and that is about as direct as it gets without actually having US troops in UA.

 

[gf0012-aust]

US already help UA in the form of PMCs, and that is about as direct as it gets without actually having US troops in UA.

they're not PMC's - although its fashionable to make it seem so

 

[Relboon]

they're not PMC's - although its fashionable to make it seem so

What are they then ? I though that Black Water was PMC.

 

[gf0012-aust]

What are they then ? I though that Black Water was PMC.

Blackwater hasn't existed for over 5 years.

the original owners and directors were completely removed and the company charter changed to a flatfoot advisers role by a different consortium

 

[bdique]

2. Ukraine is using old russian communications equipment so the mercenaries can listen in on all the UA's communications.

At level are we talking about? Platoon level? Battalion level? Division level? Even so, you can't just ship entire pieces of communication equipment over and expect unrestricted, un-decryptable radio chatter among units without suitable prior training.

If UA's communications can be listened to (not difficult if you know beforehand what to listen out for) and more importantly understood (UA not communicating using proper radio protocols?) then this seems more like an issue of radio discipline amongst frontline UA troops than equipment deficiencies.

 

[Relboon]

Stanitsa Luganskaya has been taken by Kiev troops.

Ð’ Станицу ЛуганÑкую вошла украинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ°

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/geo-strategic-issues/ukranian-crisis-12973-89/#ixzz3AptTnQFY

As usual not exactly taken but rather contested, the DNR forces retreated to the nearby hill that controls the village, and now they are fighting in the village itself again.