unfort her post didn't reference the source
Ukranian Crisis
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unfort her post didn't reference the source
Ah yes. It's not behind the pay wall that I thought the NYT had -
Original
Moscow correspondent.
RT reckons the purpose of the patrols is to keep the Ukrainian army out. i.e. effectively pro-separatist, though Akhmetov has said (& it's entirely believable) that he considers that Donbass needs to stay in a united Ukraine to secure its economic future. But even so, the 'throwing out the separatists' line of the NYT article seems to be over-interpreting the evidence. It looks more like an attempt to calm everything down, restore order, & then persuade the Kiev government there's no need to send in troops.
Original
Moscow correspondent.
RT reckons the purpose of the patrols is to keep the Ukrainian army out. i.e. effectively pro-separatist, though Akhmetov has said (& it's entirely believable) that he considers that Donbass needs to stay in a united Ukraine to secure its economic future. But even so, the 'throwing out the separatists' line of the NYT article seems to be over-interpreting the evidence. It looks more like an attempt to calm everything down, restore order, & then persuade the Kiev government there's no need to send in troops.
Ah, ok. Thanks. Well the really useful part are the photos and videos in Twain's link. I wonder what this means on the ground. The anti-Maydan there isn't very powerful, and the local police took some major casualties. So the miners will effectively control the city. There were reports on some sort of round table talks planned, but the Kiev government made a statement along the lines of "the talks will be with the peaceful protesters not the terrorists". Initially I really wondered who they would find to talk to? Maybe they will talk to Akhmetov. Maybe to some sort of representatives ("approved" ones of course) from the miners and steel workers.
I think I posted a link about the miners protests in Donetsk, earlier. I wonder how they're interacting with the Donbass Militia there (i.e. the rebel militia). After all in Mariupol' there isn't much Donetsk Republic presence. In Donetsk the situation is a little different.
Just Some Guy
New Member
I have dug up some stats from other 'polls' conducted in Ukraine:
In Crimea 1,274,096 people were 'surveyed'. this number represents 83.1% of the population (who is of voting age) within the area.
The results showed that 96.77% of these people were willing for Crimea to join the Russian federation.
In Donetsk and Lugansk the number of people 'surveyed' was 74.87% and 75% of people respectively.
The results showed that 89.07% (Donetsk) and 96.2% (Lugansk) of voters supported the region’s self-rule.
As I an quite sure you will be quick to point out, I am purposely using vocabulary that suggests a 'poll' when describing what is more accurately called a 'referendum'. Also I will freely admit that these referendums only represent localized area of Ukraine, not the entire country.
However, to all of those who would see such facts as reason to disregard the results: may I please ask you exactly how many millions of people need to vote, or how large of a percentage of the population these referendums need to include for you to accept them?
I honestly don't care if the vote results were 'join Russia', 'join the EU', or 'self rule'. the only thing that matters, in my opinion, is that the will of the people is upheld and not interfered with by outside forces, minority groups, or thugs with guns.
Oh geez , even feanor refers to the referendum in eastern ukraine as a "clown show". Do a quick bit of research on how that referendum was conducted. It almost made north korean elections look free and fair. And the referendum in Crimea? Conducted with thousands of russian soldiers marching around and pro russia militias at the polling stations. Oh yeah and the russian military doing everything they can to get as many tartars and pro ukranians to leave crimea as soon as possible.
Like it or not, a majority of Ukranians are Pro EU, the next largest group wants to remain neutral and the smallest group is pro russia. The other significant thing the polls showed was that the younger a person is, the more pro EU they are. This doesn't bode well for future Ukranian-Russian relations. I would expect that to get even worse after all the russian meddling in Ukraine.
Georgia hasn't forgotten the russian intervention and Ukraine won't either. Long term this was a very bad move by Putin. It's just going to push more countries further into the arms of the EU and in time probably NATO.
In addition to citing poll results, you state not facts but your interpretations, which in some cases simply aren't supported by the polls you cite, and at other times are generalizations that omit important details.
That's the average for entire Ukraine. In the east, the majority wants to remain neutral, a large minority wants to join Russia, and a smaller minority wants to join EU. This poll result suggests that it is the West where the majority want to join EU, unlike in the East.
A new leaked tape allegedly showing who is responsible behind the massacres at Odessa and Mariupol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vATUVASx8ug#t=118
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vATUVASx8ug#t=118
What have you heard? I'm interested because I've found fairly little info. The main problem that I saw is that the referendum was only conducted in rebel-controlled areas, i.e. places with a high level of support for the rebels, and generally only attended by their supporters.
What are you referring to?
Ukraine was recently told it's, best case, 10-15 years away from EU membership. It's been offered no opportunities to join either at this time. My problem isn't that Ukraine wants into the EU or NATO, my problem is that they're being implicitly promised things while realistically they're going to get neither, in the forseeable future. If the question was between EU membership and Customs Union membership, I think that EU membership would win out fairly quickly, despite all the problems associated with it. But that's not the choice Ukraine is being presented with.
Russia needs Ukraine more then the west does, and I think Russia is willing to offer a better deal, if the Ukrainian government plays their cards right. I think Ukraine can, without sacrificing it's independence, get more out of Russia then they can out of the EU. But at the end of the day, if this turns out to be untrue, they can still turn down the Russian offer. The key thing is that the Ukrainian government needs to act like a national government, instead of a collection of liars and crooks concerned with little more then their power base, and their money.
Prime example, Russia was offering 15 bln in financial aid loans before this mess started. The West has given several bln, but for the rest Ukraine has been forced to come to the IMF... And the West is a large collection of countries. Russia is one country. This is not the only example, just a very clear one.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Twain was responding to another poster who claimed vast majorities in eastern Ukraine want to break away. He wasn't suggesting they were all pro-EU, he was pointing out the "referendum" there was a joke and not a reliable reflection of what people want.
No, he wasn't suggesting that most Ukrainians are pro EU. He was stating that. Twain has been stating that for a while in multiple posts citing different polls. I appreciate the polls he is finding, they have very good information. But correct interpretation of statistical results requires some quantitative skills, and it seems Twain's arguments are not well supported by the polls he cites. Read the posts again.
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Just Some Guy
New Member
you claim that even feanor supports your view that the referendum was bogus. this might have amounted to a slightly compelling argument if it wasn't for the fact that in the first reply feanor give he questions everything you just said.
like it or not, Ukraine is split in two down very clear geological lines. with the North West on one side and the South East on the other.
this split encompass everything from political view points to what their first language is to who they vote for in elections (back when Ukraine had an elected government).
I do not care about Ukraine as a whole. just because more people live in the NW of Ukraine mean nothing. you literally have half the country (in terms of land mass if not population) that has a pro-Russian or pro-autonomy majority.
to try and put this into perspective for you, there is a section of Ukraine that is larger than the entire UK that has a very clearly different political view from the thugs in Kiev.
not meaning to take this post out on a tangent. but yes, I view the coup appointed government as thugs. since the first thing they did was banned the main language that half the country spoke. they sent armored vehicles against the civilians who protested this. and then they labeled these civilians as terrorists so as to justify sending the heavy weaponry.
to end my post, I will ask the same question I ended my last post with:
exactly how many millions of people, or what percentage of the local population, need to hold a specific view for you to accept it?
Play nice - get grumpy offline - not in here
Mmmno. I don't think the results of the referendum are valid on any meaningful level, nor do I think this referendum was supposed to play the role that it's stated as playing by the rebels. I think that the entire referendum is bargaining chip, and it's conduct was problematic. I am interested to hear why he thinks the referendum is bogus. Why people think something is more interesting, to me, then what they think.
Lets get one thing straight. There are indeed two camps, but pro-Russian or pro-autonomy is not an accurate way of describing the eastern camp. One of the problems with the eastern camp is their distinct lack of an ideological offering.
They didn't ban Russian. That's a misconception actively encouraged and spread by Russian media. They tried to pass a language law, but failed.
Off-topic, I don't have time to do an update post today. I will hopefully have time to post one tomorrow.
Klaus
New Member
Anyway, when this whole conflict will be over some day, it will be quite hard for Ukraine to find support elsewhere than in Russia. As Crimea has been annexed by Russia, Ukraine cannot join NATO, and the EU will be even more unwilling to offer the country the perspective of full membership, after all the trouble they had with Cyprus. If it comes to a new gas war, then the Ukrainian economy will be furtherly damaged, making it less lucrative for western companies to invest there.
I don't think what the Russian government is doing now will simply be forgotten by the Ukrainian side, but in the long term they need to find some sort of compromise to end these useless struggles over the country's geopolitical orientation.
And what the people want or do not want is in some cases simply unimportant, as it is not them who decide.
Does anybody have info on how the preparations for the elections next week are progressing?
I don't think what the Russian government is doing now will simply be forgotten by the Ukrainian side, but in the long term they need to find some sort of compromise to end these useless struggles over the country's geopolitical orientation.
And what the people want or do not want is in some cases simply unimportant, as it is not them who decide.
Does anybody have info on how the preparations for the elections next week are progressing?
Actually I was suggesting just that, a majority of Ukranians are Pro EU
Here's some numbers from one poll and I quote
""Nationwide, a slight majority (54%) said it would be good for Ukraine to join the EU. "
Not sure how you can interpret that any other way, that's an exact quote from one poll.
It was very widely reported that the whole referendum was a big joke. Here's one snippet.
"Many of the voters were not on the outdated registration lists but were allowed to vote after showing identification documents.
There also seemed to be no system in place to prevent one person from voting at multiple polling stations.
A CNN crew saw several people vote twice at one polling station, where the ballot boxes were decorated with new Donetsk independence flags.
There was also a report of video showing three men arrested near Slovyansk with boxes of "yes" ballots in their car."
A quick google search will give you a lot more reports very similar to that one.
Crimean Tatars, mainly women and children, are fleeing the region to seek refuge in Western Ukraine or Turkey, although most trains and airplanes are fully booked. They fear retaliation for being pro-Ukrainian -
again google it, there is more out there, this is just one example.
UNPO: Crimean Tatars Call On International Community To Support Their Right To Self-Determination
I do agree that EU or Nato membership is a long way off, no doubt about that. Ukraine would have to institute numerous reforms before they would ever be considered for membership in either.
What I disagree about is that Ukraine would be better off long term in the Customs Union rather than the EU. One of the biggest things that Ukranians are upset about is corruption. It's rampant in the government and not just the previous administration, it goes back years. IMO joining the customs union would just institutionalize the corruption and eventually make Ukraine nothing more than a client state of Russia. Sure they would get a short term fix from the money Putin is willing to throw at them, but it is just that, a very short term fix.
The polish economy is the model they ought to be following. Since 1990 they have increased their GDP from USD $64.5 Billion to $489 billion, almost an 8 fold increase. Compare that to the russian model over the same time period, USD $516 billion to $2,014 billion, not quite a 4 fold increase. If you use constant dollars, it's much less.
i would personally prefer if this thread stayed on the update on ukraine sitrep and not going into political discussion. it would be best if ukraine related political discussion posted on another thread instead of here..
would love to see more sitrep on the ground-truth of the ambush of ukraine rightsector soliders, the one in which estimated 100 ukraine rightsector soldiers get killed and the kiev goverment said they deserted instead of admitting they are casualties. Feanor do you have more information on this rumor ?
would love to see more sitrep on the ground-truth of the ambush of ukraine rightsector soliders, the one in which estimated 100 ukraine rightsector soldiers get killed and the kiev goverment said they deserted instead of admitting they are casualties. Feanor do you have more information on this rumor ?
Well, how do you interpret it? There is nothing particularly wrong with this one statement. But drawing certain conclusions from it, such as that the eastern protesters are a small minority or that majority in the east are in favor of joining EU, while ignoring other results in the same polls is a logical fallacy.
Edit: Actually the statement itself is a little misleading. The 54% in favor of joining EU result is not nationwide but an overall average including all parts of Ukraine. The number of those in favor of joining the EU was only 14% in the East (http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/12/world/europe/ukraine-cnn-poll/), while it must be significantly higher than 54% in the West.
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I fully agree. I would love to see further updates on the current situation too. Feanor, I really appreciate what you are doing and follow your updates regularly.
Remember that you are talking about people who report on military matters but can't tell the difference between a HMMWV, Striker, Bradley, and Abrams. Sometimes I wonder if they can count to 6 with their shoes on.
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