Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Details on the ambush near Kramatorsk. The rebels moved through a government blockade, and concentrated at night. They probably had good intel. The ambush was set up in front of a bridge. A group of the 95th AirMobile Brigade was hit, it was two BTRs with troops, and two GAZ-66 trucks with Vasilek mortars. The head BTR was hit by an RPG, and then the rebels opened fire on the column. The second BTR rammed the first one off the road. One of the GAZ-66s was hit, with the mortar inside it, and the mortar rounds detonated. The second turned around, and retreated the way it came from. The rebels then rapidly retreated. It appears they took almost no casualties. Rebel sources report 1 dead 1 wounded for their side. Government troops report initially 6 dead 8 wounded. Eventually the death toll rose to 8.

u_96:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/87247.html

Ukraine has been caught using helos with UN markings in the conflict zone. Which isn't really allowed.

ООРудивлено поÑвлением под КраматорÑком вертолетов Ñ Ð¸Ñ… опознавательными знаками
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=218807&d=1400007030
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=218818&d=1400022728

Rebels got an IMR-2 engineer vehicle, probably the one I mentioned earlier. It was non-working at a factory near Kramatorsk. It might still be not working, since it's on a trailer.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/86150.html

Fighting near Aleksandrovka. Details are absent. Rumors are that the government troops have the same group of rebels surrounded that attacked government troops earlier, destroying one BTR and one truck.

jerry24_it:

An interactive map of checkpoints and objects under Donetsk People's Republic control. Accuracy is anyone's guess.

https://mapsengine.google.com/map/viewer?mid=z05-4kBOMw8Y.kn0MNlK5dkuc&authuser=1

Donetsk People's Republic has moved into Mariupol' and occupied a local police department.

jerry24_it:

Another attempt has been made to seize a National Guard unit in Donetsk. It has failed.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/conflicts/5321-1.html

Both sides in the conflict are indicating that they will escalate the fighting unless the other side backs off, which probably means we will see heavier fighting soon. The ambush near Kramatorsk may be an indicator of things to come.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1587283.html

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1587283.html#cutid1

US State Department claims that Russian troops are still near the Ukrainian border in massive numbers. This is probably accurate.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíò ÑØÀ îïðîâåðã ñëîâà Ïóòèíà, îïóáëèêîâàâ íîâûå ñíèìêè âîéñê ÐÔ ó ãðàíèöû Óêðàèíû

Rada investigators concluded that the Maydan snipers were not Berkut fighters.

*

Russia is closing infrastructural projects in other parts of the country to reinvest the money into Crimea.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èñòî÷íèêè: âîïðîñ ñ çàêðûòèåì ìíîãîìèëëèàðäíûõ ïðîåêòîâ â ïîëüçó Êðûìà "ïðàêòè÷åñêè ðåøåí"

It appears that all MVD troop units are now called National Guard. So the words National Guard do not refer to specifically the new units formed, but also to all regular internal troops units.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

Fighting continues around Slavyansk. The rebels claim that there may have been some fighting between two government units, one of which refused orders and the other then moved in. Also mortar fire exchanges have been reported.

u_96:
Ðа воÑтоке Украины в районе городов КраматорÑка и СлавÑнÑка продолжаютÑÑ Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÑтрелки

Government special purpose team Bulat (from the UGO, equivalent of Russian FSO or US Secret Service) stormed and cleared a rebel-held TV tower near Slavyansk. Rebel forces retreated.

Спецподразделение управление гоÑ. охраны Украины провело зачиÑтку меÑтноÑти вокруг телевышки

Rebel BMD-2 moves to position, fires, and retreats. The commentators note that the BMD is not firing from behind civilians, as Kiev government sources claim. I'm a little more skeptical. This may not be actual fighting, just a moto-shoot for propaganda purposes.

u_96:

The photos in the middle of this blog post show some trench work by the rebels around Slavyansk. I'm fairly certain that wasn't shown before.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1589448.html

It looks like the IMR-2 the rebels have in Kramatorsk actually does work.

u_96:

They're rotating leadership in the Anti-Terrorist Operation center. Probably due to the ineffectiveness of current leadership.

Ð’ штабе Ñпецоперации на ДонбаÑÑе проведена ротациÑ

Photos of National Guard soldiers.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Про бойца-реконÑтруктора

Another map of rebel areas in the east.

Colonel Cassad -

Crimean tourism will be hard hit this summer, as Ukrainians don't go there.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíèñòåðñòâî êóðîðòîâ Êðûìà çàÿâèëî î ïàäåíèè òóðïîòîêà â 2,5 ðàçà. Ñïèêåð Êðûìñêîãî ïàðëàìåíòà: "îøèáëèñü â öèôðå"
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Estimates are that overall tourism to russia is down by 15%
I'm not surprised, but Russia relies less on tourism then Crimea does. The Russian government can compensate losses in tourism in other ways. Crimea can't, for them tourism is a key industry.

It will be compensated with the fact that most russians will stay this summer in Russia And they don,t think to go to other countries , many of them will go to Crimea.
It appears that this is not happening. The compensation of tourism from Russia doesn't make up for what they've lost so far, it seems.
 

Twain

Active Member
Another poll has been released, Conducted by ComnRes for CNN.

I'm not familiar with ComRes so I won't comment on their reputation or accuracy but their results are largely in line with other polls.

Ukraine favors Europe over Russia, new CNN poll finds - CNN.com

"The CNN poll found that even in eastern Ukraine, a minority of people back an alliance with Russia.
Just over a third (37%) of Ukrainians in three eastern regions favor an alliance with Russia, while 14% of the region backs an alliance with the European Union and about half (49%) say Ukraine would be better off if it did not ally with either, the poll found."

"Two out of three (67%) people in Ukraine approve of economic sanctions against Russia, while one out of three (29%) disapproves, the poll by ComRes for CNN found."

The results keep showing the same thing over and over. This mess is being driven by a small minority of Ukranians and outside interests.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Another poll has been released, Conducted by ComnRes for CNN.

I'm not familiar with ComRes so I won't comment on their reputation or accuracy but their results are largely in line with other polls.

Ukraine favors Europe over Russia, new CNN poll finds - CNN.com

"The CNN poll found that even in eastern Ukraine, a minority of people back an alliance with Russia.
Just over a third (37%) of Ukrainians in three eastern regions favor an alliance with Russia, while 14% of the region backs an alliance with the European Union and about half (49%) say Ukraine would be better off if it did not ally with either, the poll found."

"Two out of three (67%) people in Ukraine approve of economic sanctions against Russia, while one out of three (29%) disapproves, the poll by ComRes for CNN found."

The results keep showing the same thing over and over. This mess is being driven by a small minority of Ukranians and outside interests.
These numbers sound a lot more plausible then the Gallup poll. I wouldn't be surprised if they were correct. Please note that 37% is not a small minority. It would explain the large crowds of civilians that have often met government troops, as well as the massive demonstrations.
 

Just Some Guy

New Member
Ukraine favors Europe over Russia, new CNN poll finds - CNN.com

"The CNN poll found that even in eastern Ukraine, [...] Just over a third (37%) of Ukrainians in three eastern regions favor an alliance with Russia, while 14% of the region backs an alliance with the European Union "
37% for Russia
14% for EU
yet the title of the article is that Ukraine favors EU more than Russia

I know western media can be bias some times, but this is just bad math. it is ridiculous.
 
These numbers sound a lot more plausible then the Gallup poll. I wouldn't be surprised if they were correct. Please note that 37% is not a small minority. It would explain the large crowds of civilians that have often met government troops, as well as the massive demonstrations.
The only solution , a división of Ukraine , the eastern part never will accept be part of E.U. or NATO, anyway the eastern part has been historically part of Rusia.
 

Twain

Active Member
37% for Russia
14% for EU
yet the title of the article is that Ukraine favors EU more than Russia

I know western media can be bias some times, but this is just bad math. it is ridiculous.
"Nationwide, a slight majority (54%) said it would be good for Ukraine to join the EU. "

You should read the entire poll before commenting. The snippets I post are just snippets not the entire picture.
 

Twain

Active Member
These numbers sound a lot more plausible then the Gallup poll. I wouldn't be surprised if they were correct. Please note that 37% is not a small minority. It would explain the large crowds of civilians that have often met government troops, as well as the massive demonstrations.
Only one out of three is a small minority. In an election between two choices, the choice getting just one out of three votes has been embarrassed.

Interesting that of the three polls I have posted you choose to believe the one that is closest to your point of view rather than the two polls that contradict it. The evidence is there and GF confirmed it when he commented on "trusted sources" saying the same thing. This mess is being driven by a small minority and by non-ukranians fighting with/for the rebels.


Just saw this in the news, sorry if already posted:

Steelworkers rout separatists in city of Mariupol, Ukraine

"In what could represent a decisive turning point in the Ukrainian conflict and a setback for Russia, thousands of steelworkers fanned out Thursday over the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and routing the pro-Kremlin militants who seized control several weeks ago."

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk, though they had not yet become the dominant force there that they are in Mariupol, the region’s second largest city and the site just last week of bloody confrontations between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants."

Steelworkers rout separatists in city of Mariupol, Ukraine - The Globe and Mail

"The workers are employees of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a recent convert to the side of Ukrainian unity, who on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting the separatist cause of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic but endorsing greater local autonomy"

Not all is well among the rebels either. It appears some splits are developing:

"In a possible allusion to tensions between rival groups among the rebels, Zdrilyuk complained about the activity of a "curly-haired man" he identified as an ex-member of the Russian security service FSB. He said the man, going by the nicknames of "Magician" and "Joker", had a group of 30 armed accomplices."

Rebel Commander Warns Of Attack - Business Insider

I wonder how Ex FSB he actually is?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Only one out of three is a small minority. In an election between two choices, the choice getting just one out of three votes has been embarrassed.
1/3rd of the population is by no means a small minority. Like I said, this isn't a place where democracy and elections are how things get decided.

Interesting that of the three polls I have posted you choose to believe the one that is closest to your point of view rather than the two polls that contradict it. The evidence is there and GF confirmed it when he commented on "trusted sources" saying the same thing. This mess is being driven by a small minority and by non-ukranians fighting with/for the rebels.
Restating your opinion does not amount to evidence. I've already mentioned the things that make me think otherwise.

Just saw this in the news, sorry if already posted:

Steelworkers rout separatists in city of Mariupol, Ukraine

"In what could represent a decisive turning point in the Ukrainian conflict and a setback for Russia, thousands of steelworkers fanned out Thursday over the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and routing the pro-Kremlin militants who seized control several weeks ago."

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk, though they had not yet become the dominant force there that they are in Mariupol, the region’s second largest city and the site just last week of bloody confrontations between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants."

Steelworkers rout separatists in city of Mariupol, Ukraine - The Globe and Mail

"The workers are employees of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a recent convert to the side of Ukrainian unity, who on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting the separatist cause of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic but endorsing greater local autonomy"
The position of the Ukrainian government today would make those steel workers separatists. Of course that position is likely to change rapidly, as they see a chance to split the rebels. But as it stands there's no clear picture of how Kiev will proceed. One thing to keep in mind is that Mariupol' was never really under rebel control. As I wrote earlier, the anti-Maydan there was very weak to begin with. It was the actions of Kiev that brought about this turn of events, when they brought troops into the city. And given the violence by MVD National Guard against the local police in Mariupol', I wonder how well the local police will get along with the Kiev government.

As for local autonomy, remember the original demand of the "separatists" was federalization. Autonomy would amount to something similar to federalization for this province. In other words these miners are on the same position that the anti-Maydan was on originally. Chances are they're worried that the clown-show of a referendum will be used as a basis for some sort of permanent arrangement by outside powers (like Russia) and don't want to see that happen. I wouldn't be surprised if when the Kiev government tries to bring troops into Mariupol' again, they end up chased out of town once more.

Not all is well among the rebels either. It appears some splits are developing:

"In a possible allusion to tensions between rival groups among the rebels, Zdrilyuk complained about the activity of a "curly-haired man" he identified as an ex-member of the Russian security service FSB. He said the man, going by the nicknames of "Magician" and "Joker", had a group of 30 armed accomplices."

Rebel Commander Warns Of Attack - Business Insider

I wonder how Ex FSB he actually is?
There have been rumors, it remains to be seen what happens next.

EDIT: I wrote the above post, taking your links at face value, however your statement about the situation in Mariupol' got me interested. I saw nothing on it in the usual sources, so I searched far and wide (in Russian) for the news. They seem to come from a news site called censor.net.ua

http://censor.net.ua/news/285303/shahtery_donbassa_vystupayut_za_edinuyu_ukrainu_glava_profsoyuza

This site has a terrible reputation, and has posted garbage in the past. This doesn't mean that these news are untrue, but it remains to be seen what is actually going on. The official city new site for Mariupol' has nothing on any massive miners strike. Lets see whether photos of thousands (tens of thousands) of miners in the streets turn up, removing barricades, and "retaking" the city.

http://www.0629.com.ua/news
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

According to some calculations by a blogger, there may be ~30 flyable Mi-24s available for the operations against the rebels. He makes an attempt to count flying machines, based on documented sightings. 3 Mi-24s have been shot down so far, which makes it a very high casualty percentage.

militarizm:
militarizm:
militarizm:

Ukrainian National Guard BTR-4E, near Slavyansk.

bmpd -

The Ukrainian National Guard is disarming and "reclaiming" local police for Kiev.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Про "ДонбаÑÑ"
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=218919&d=1400186233
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=218918&d=1400186210

Russian experts question the legitimacy of the referendums in Donetsk and Lugansk.

Ðаблюдатели из РоÑÑийÑкой Федерации уÑомнилиÑÑŒ в легитимноÑти референдума о незавиÑимоÑти ДÐР | 0629.com.ua - ÐовоÑти МариуполÑ

The US promises new and serious sanctions against Russia if the presidential election in Ukraine ends up not happening.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êåððè ïîîáåùàë Ðîññèè ìàñøòàáíûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ñàíêöèè, åñëè âûáîðû íà Óêðàèíå áóäóò ñîðâàíû
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
from Minnie...

Ukraine steelworkers’ ousting of militants could mark shift
15 May 2014

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — In what could represent a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict and a setback for Russia, thousands of steelworkers fanned out Thursday over the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and routing the pro-Kremlin militants who seized control several weeks ago. By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk, though they had not yet become the dominant force there that they are in Mariupol, the region’s second-largest city and the site of bloody confrontations between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants last week.

The workers are employees of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a recent convert to the side of Ukrainian unity, who on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting the separatist cause of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic but endorsing greater local autonomy. His decision to throw his weight fully behind the interim government in Kiev could inflict a body blow to the separatists, already reeling from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s withdrawal of full-throated support last week.

Faced with waves of steelworkers joined by police, the pro-Russian demonstrators have melted away, as has any sign of the Donetsk People’s Republic or its representatives. Backhoes and dump trucks from the steelworkers’ factory dismantled all the barricades, without resistance from demonstrators or pro-Russian militants. Akhmetov’s company, System Capital Management, has two subsidiaries that together employ 280,000 people in eastern Ukraine, forming an important and possibly decisive force in the region. They have a history of political activism stretching back to miner strikes that helped bring down the Soviet Union. In this conflict, they had not previously signaled their allegiance.

It was still too early to ascertain whether the separatists would regroup to resist the industrial workers, though none were to be found in and around Mariupol on Thursday. “We have to bring order to the city,” Alexei Gorlov, a steelworker, said of his motivation for joining one of the unpaid and voluntary patrols that were organized at the Ilych Steel Works. Groups of six or so steelworkers accompanied two policemen on the patrols. “People organize themselves,” he said. “In times of troubles, that is how it works.”

Workers from another mill, Azov Steel, took one side of the city, while the Ilych factory took the other. Both groups were trying to persuade longshoremen to patrol the port, Gorlov said. The chief executive of Ilych Steel, Yuri Zinchenko, is leading the steelworker patrols in the city. He said the company had remained on the sidelines as long as possible, while tacitly supporting unity with Ukraine by conveying to workers that a separatist victory would close export markets in Europe, devastating the factory and the town. The Ilych Steel Works, a grimy scene of mid-20th century industrial sprawl, is one of Ukraine’s most important factories, producing 5 million tons of slab steel a year. About 50,000 people work in the steel industry in Mariupol, a city of 460,000. So far, 18,000 steelworkers have signed up for the patrols, executives say.

“There’s no family in Mariupol that’s not connected to the steel industry,” Zinchenko said.
 

Twain

Active Member
1/3rd of the population is by no means a small minority. Like I said, this isn't a place where democracy and elections are how things get decided.



Restating your opinion does not amount to evidence. I've already mentioned the things that make me think otherwise.
Stating what the polls have found isn't stating my opinion, it's stating facts based on statistically valid polls measuring public opinions. The polls have been pretty consistent showing anywhere from 1 on five to 1 in three being "pro russia". You just want to seize on the one poll that shows views slight more favorable to your preconceived notions. Even this poll wasn't really favorable with 56% of Ukranians expressing loyalty to the EU while only 19% expressing loyalty to Russia. Regardless of how you want to try to interpret this poll, it is hardly favorable to the Russian point of view. From the russian point of view, it is only marginally less bad than the other two.

One out of three is not a large minority. No it's not a democracy but 2 to 1 odds against your particular point of view are not good odds at all. Unless you are North Korea or some similar government willing to imprison or kill large numbers of people, even autocratic regimes are subject to public opinion if it goes to far against them. That's why these things matter.


Some video and pics of the steelworkers patrolling with the police and tearing down barricades are at the link below.


http://mashable.com/2014/05/15/steelworkers-eastern-ukraine/
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Stating what the polls have found isn't stating my opinion, it's stating facts based on statistically valid polls measuring public opinions. The polls have been pretty consistent showing anywhere from 1 on five to 1 in three being "pro russia". You just want to seize on the one poll that shows views slight more favorable to your preconceived notions. Even this poll wasn't really favorable with 56% of Ukranians expressing loyalty to the EU while only 19% expressing loyalty to Russia. Regardless of how you want to try to interpret this poll, it is hardly favorable to the Russian point of view. From the russian point of view, it is only marginally less bad than the other two.

One out of three is not a large minority. No it's not a democracy but 2 to 1 odds against your particular point of view are not good odds at all. Unless you are North Korea or some similar government willing to imprison or kill large numbers of people, even autocratic regimes are subject to public opinion if it goes to far against them. That's why these things matter.
You are mistaken on my position. You're welcome to re-read my posts if you'd like, but I'll summarize my position for you here.

There is a significant portion of the population, in the east, that is pro-Russian, and an even more significant portion of the population that is decidedly anti-Kiev. They are a minority, but they are not a small one. The majority is politically inert, or nearly so (meaning not that they don't have an opinion or a position, but meaning that they are not willing to do more then opine). The active pro-Kiev and pro-Western side is an even smaller minority in the east. This conflict will not be decided by votes or elections, it will be decided by an open confrontation between the politically active components of the population, as well as the actions of various national international players.

The Kiev government, in my opinion, is either stupid or criminal in the way they are approaching this crisis. Their actions are not only not resolving the situation but making it actively worse. What started out as a moderate pro-Russian protest wave has turned into a violent insurgency, and the longer this inconclusive fighting goes on the stronger the roots of the insurgency become. The Kiev government needed to take certain internal steps to de-escalate the situation, and extend at least the appearance of a compromise to the protesters. Instead they chose to escalate violently. Now they're knee-deep in it and it's not looking like it will get better any time soon.

Russia's position in this crisis has been what it always has been. Russia is taking what it can where it can, using whatever justification is most suitable. This is not new, this is not unexpected, nor is this all that different from the behavior of great powers towards weak and unstable countries that hold geopolitical significance for them. The Ukrainian government, instead of rationally evaluating the circumstances in which they find themselves, has for the past 20+ years worked off of a "blame Russia" mindset, while themselves doing nothing to remedy the dire circumstances their country is in, indeed worsening it through systemic corruption, theft, and political squabbles over offices and finances. There is a clear pattern from Kravchuk to Yanukovich, to the current "genius" Turchinov. The people there now are no better, no smarter, and no more capable, then previous leaders. They may have fewer connections to organized crime, and may be less insane on the language question then Yuschenko, but the situation the country is in at this time is much worse, and their inadequate showing is the primary reason Ukraine is going down a bad bad path.

At the end of the day Ukraine is an independent nation state. The government of Ukraine is the only one responsible for the fate of Ukraine. That doesn't mean that they're the only ones who have influence on events, but it does mean that ultimately they are responsible for the outcome. I lay the blame for current events on them, collectively, and not limited to just the ones in office at this time.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
from Minnie...
What is minnie? And where are they sourcing their info? Do they have a correspondent on the ground? Given the mountains of rubbish I sort through, I've grown skeptical of anything not coming with photos and videos to verify the events. That having been said, Twain's link provides said photos and video, so I guess it's mostly my curiosity on what minnie is... a google search spat out results on a mickey mouse character... :confused:

For example the news of political infighting among the rebels are basically unverifiable. And given that the rebels aren't really a centrally coordinated or organized group to begin with, it's very hard to understand what this infighting actually means in practice.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some video and pics of the steelworkers patrolling with the police and tearing down barricades are at the link below.


Steelworkers in Unlikely Bid to Bring Order to Eastern Ukraine
Heh. Check this out. From your link.

Akhmetov himself laid out his plan in a YouTube video posted on Wednesday. In it, he calls for the kind of federalism trumpeted by the Russian foreign minister — one that gives power to the states versus the central government in Kiev. That would result in a largely decentralized power structure in Ukraine that would open up the eastern regions to Russian meddling. But it could, with Akhmetov's support, lead to an end to the worst post-Cold War crisis between east and west.
From my post above. Emphasis in edit.

As for local autonomy, remember the original demand of the "separatists" was federalization. Autonomy would amount to something similar to federalization for this province. In other words these miners are on the same position that the anti-Maydan was on originally. Chances are they're worried that the clown-show of a referendum will be used as a basis for some sort of permanent arrangement by outside powers (like Russia) and don't want to see that happen. I wouldn't be surprised if when the Kiev government tries to bring troops into Mariupol' again, they end up chased out of town once more.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
That story is in the Canadian Globe & Mail, word for word (but at greater length) & cites the New York Times news service as the source. Author is given as Andrew Kramer.

Story
 
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