Ukranian Crisis

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GermanHerman

Active Member
The significance is that the material seems to be forged and was displayed by a federal institution.

It's a part of the informational warfare going back and forth. At the level of embarrassment and harm this does to the reputation of western media I think it is interesting.

A big deal of western propaganda relies on the bad reputation of RT and the generally low credibility of russian statements, a blow like this is damaging because it shows western institutions face the same problems.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The significance is that the material seems to be forged and was displayed by a federal institution.

It's a part of the informational warfare going back and forth. At the level of embarrassment and harm this does to the reputation of western media I think it is interesting.

A big deal of western propaganda relies on the bad reputation of RT and the generally low credibility of russian statements, a blow like this is damaging because it shows western institutions face the same problems.
I guess that's significant. Though to be completely honest, even though western media is more accurate in questions of basic facts, the overall picture they present is just as much propaganda and bs as RT. The west relies on information management just as much as Russia, and is actually better at it. Granted you're right, and this is very embarassing, but in this day and age you really have to do your own research anyway. Relying on mass media for information is just plain silly.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
NATO countries should focus on their internal security and borders and only interfere in other countries when they have an ally that needs help. An existing dependable ally. Not destabilizing regimes because they aren't friendly to them. And certainly not trying to create allies out of suspect and violent actors by providing support. Then turning Europe into a refugee center.

But with the bedfellows they keep (and shamelessly arm to the teeth), like the saudis (one of the most vile regimes) and aggressive hyenas like Erdogan: the former deliberately throw the whole region down the sinkhole with military intervention, mass executions and bombing embassies and the latter sucker punches Russia because of the unwavering NATO support, threatening outright war.

Meanwhile they have been trying to stick bases and ballistic defences right on Russia's borders, as if the Cold War never ended. Very asymmetric to the threat Russia has posed since 1991.

As always I am happy to abandon my bold statements if persuaded to the contrary :p:
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Here's a link to an interesting article about how to deal with the current NATO-Russia relationship. Some of the quotations from Hart's book must have been studied by Putin.

Doing The Basil: Stalin 2.0 Must Prompt NATO Soul Searching « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary
The article is a smear-piece, and not a well written one. First it puts Putin together with Hitler. Then it puts Putin together with ISIS. It pretends to advocate some sort of intelligent approach but stops short of actually doing so, instead simply listing problems.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The article is a smear-piece, and not a well written one. First it puts Putin together with Hitler. Then it puts Putin together with ISIS. It pretends to advocate some sort of intelligent approach but stops short of actually doing so, instead simply listing problems.
I disagree depending on what you by putting Putin together with Hitler. The article does not make Putin a Hitler clone, it merely states that Putin knows what tactics work to further his agenda. His agenda is in no way like Hitler's or Stalin for that matter. He is interested in recovering some former Soviet turf but he knows there are limits.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I disagree depending on what you by putting Putin together with Hitler. The article does not make Putin a Hitler clone, it merely states that Putin knows what tactics work to further his agenda. His agenda is in no way like Hitler's or Stalin for that matter. He is interested in recovering some former Soviet turf but he knows there are limits.
The comparison by itself, no. But take the article as a whole. ;)
 

surpreme

Member
Ukrainian Training

Starting to see the training of Ukrainians Forces. They really needed help from NATO/western forces. I have noticed the Ukrainian Forces are looking well equipped and has newer armor and clean camo. They have been doing heavy training when or if they go into battle they will be different force. They doing better training and looks better organize then 2 year ago. I will say this if the rebels don't received heavy Russian volunteers it with be losing some of land it capture. I just realized the Ukrainians forces were in bad shape in 2012. Overall the aid the Ukrainian is received is helping them out. If the Rebels are smart they would take advantage of the calmness and trained harder cause went the Ukrainians started a offensive it will not be like it was in the early part of the war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Starting to see the training of Ukrainians Forces. They really needed help from NATO/western forces. I have noticed the Ukrainian Forces are looking well equipped and has newer armor and clean camo. They have been doing heavy training when or if they go into battle they will be different force. They doing better training and looks better organize then 2 year ago. I will say this if the rebels don't received heavy Russian volunteers it with be losing some of land it capture. I just realized the Ukrainians forces were in bad shape in 2012. Overall the aid the Ukrainian is received is helping them out. If the Rebels are smart they would take advantage of the calmness and trained harder cause went the Ukrainians started a offensive it will not be like it was in the early part of the war.
Sort of but not really. Only a few Ukrainian units have received western training and the majority of the Ukrainian army lacks body armor and even trucks to move around. In fact the majority of the Ukrainian army are sitting around in their barracks doing little more then peeling potatoes for their supper, and some fairly primitive training. Even in the portion of the Ukrainian army actually at the front, there is a heavy deficit of trucks, and light armor vehicles. There is also a shortage of artillery. So far it's been compensated by bringing back retired types from the arsenal, but it can only go so far. Another big fight like Debal'tsevo or summer of '14, and the Ukrainian Army will no longer be able to fill the hole in artillery units. Finally, Ukraine has received some new light armor, but far too little, and the quality of what they've received leaves much to be desired. Remember those defective BTR-4s that the Iraqis turned down due to cracks in the armor? Those went to the Ukrainian Army and National Guard. And of course those rather garbage armored cars from Streit Group (and that's not my opinion, there are repeated reports from the Ukrainians that the Cougar and Spartan armored cars have huge mobility issues, break down frequently, and are uncomfortable and poorly designed for combat use). So while this stuff might look pretty at handover ceremonies, Ukraine would be lucky to get more up-armored Humvees.

That having been said, there's a few things they've done that are likely to matter quite a bit. They've got 3 squadrons of Su-25s flying now, with repairs done locally. That's quite a lot. And while Russian air defense is likely to be inside the combat zone again, 36 aircraft in a war this small means they can eat some casualties and still operate. They have managed to scrape together enough artillery for the units currently at the front. Their use of artillery (just like the rebels) is very inefficient, reminiscent of WWII. But they've got enough, for now. For one more big fight anyway. They also have a core of experienced personnel who've fought in '14 and '15. While many of the conscripts de-mobbed, and many have even left the country (at least a couple making it as far as where I am in California), there is a core of officers and NCOs still around that have extensive combat experience.

Overall it's not the strength of the Ukrainian military I'd count on but the weakness of the rebels. They couldn't even close the Debal'tsevo pocket without having to involve Russian armor and SpN. It's likely they rebels can hold well enough on the defense, for a while anyway, but for any sort of maneuver war, or serious offensive action (even counter-offensive) they would need Russian units. Not volunteers embedded with them, actual units.

EDIT: An interesting photoset from Azov regiment. That "social-nationalist" unit that's now part of the MVD. Note the very pretty display, and fresh paint. Note also the tiny quantity of vehicles actually being shown. Azov regiment is a relatively effective fighting force, and has been the recipient of a larger proportion of vehicles and equipment then line Army units.

http://nortwolf-sam.livejournal.com/1136644.html
 

corporalclegg

Banned Member
Russia's envoy to Contact Group on Ukrainian reconciliation Boris Gryzlov said that settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is not in a situation of a "stalemate."

"I have just wanted to draw your attention to the fact that we do not consider the current situation as a stalemate. There are a lot of ways and breakthrough options. My task is to explain it to the parties of the process," Gryzlov said in an interview with the Russian Kommersant daily on Sunday.

Something is comin` on...
 

surpreme

Member
Sort of but not really. Only a few Ukrainian units have received western training and the majority of the Ukrainian army lacks body armor and even trucks to move around. In fact the majority of the Ukrainian army are sitting around in their barracks doing little more then peeling potatoes for their supper, and some fairly primitive training. Even in the portion of the Ukrainian army actually at the front, there is a heavy deficit of trucks, and light armor vehicles. There is also a shortage of artillery. So far it's been compensated by bringing back retired types from the arsenal, but it can only go so far. Another big fight like Debal'tsevo or summer of '14, and the Ukrainian Army will no longer be able to fill the hole in artillery units. Finally, Ukraine has received some new light armor, but far too little, and the quality of what they've received leaves much to be desired. Remember those defective BTR-4s that the Iraqis turned down due to cracks in the armor? Those went to the Ukrainian Army and National Guard. And of course those rather garbage armored cars from Streit Group (and that's not my opinion, there are repeated reports from the Ukrainians that the Cougar and Spartan armored cars have huge mobility issues, break down frequently, and are uncomfortable and poorly designed for combat use). So while this stuff might look pretty at handover ceremonies, Ukraine would be lucky to get more up-armored Humvees.

That having been said, there's a few things they've done that are likely to matter quite a bit. They've got 3 squadrons of Su-25s flying now, with repairs done locally. That's quite a lot. And while Russian air defense is likely to be inside the combat zone again, 36 aircraft in a war this small means they can eat some casualties and still operate. They have managed to scrape together enough artillery for the units currently at the front. Their use of artillery (just like the rebels) is very inefficient, reminiscent of WWII. But they've got enough, for now. For one more big fight anyway. They also have a core of experienced personnel who've fought in '14 and '15. While many of the conscripts de-mobbed, and many have even left the country (at least a couple making it as far as where I am in California), there is a core of officers and NCOs still around that have extensive combat experience.

Overall it's not the strength of the Ukrainian military I'd count on but the weakness of the rebels. They couldn't even close the Debal'tsevo pocket without having to involve Russian armor and SpN. It's likely they rebels can hold well enough on the defense, for a while anyway, but for any sort of maneuver war, or serious offensive action (even counter-offensive) they would need Russian units. Not volunteers embedded with them, actual units.

EDIT: An interesting photoset from Azov regiment. That "social-nationalist" unit that's now part of the MVD. Note the very pretty display, and fresh paint. Note also the tiny quantity of vehicles actually being shown. Azov regiment is a relatively effective fighting force, and has been the recipient of a larger proportion of vehicles and equipment then line Army units.

Техника полка ваффен-СС "Ðзов" "ÐГУ" Свидомии - nortwolf_sam
Thanks I understand the situation more better now. So you saying that there actual Russian units with the Rebels. Who behind the overthrow of the Ukraine's Government in 2010? Western agency. One time I recall listening to Russian leader telling the world it did not want NATO on its border.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks I understand the situation more better now. So you saying that there actual Russian units with the Rebels.
There were Russian units with the rebels during key moments of the fighting. It's much harder to tell whether they're still there or not, since it's peacetime. At the peak of the fighting I would say there was a brigade-plus sized element, composed of btln tactical groups from different units. There were also some fairly sophisticated air defense and EW/ELINT assets.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some very interesting material on the rebel artillery brigade, in the LNR. It's being slowly re-armed with bigger and better gear. It started out in August of 2014, with 8 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and 4 2S1 SP Arty, back then it was called Typhoon. It participated in the siege of the Lugansk airport. It began formation in earnest, in November-December of '14. Between breakdowns and combat, they were left with a battery of BM-21s, two batteries of Msta-B howitzers (3 of which were captured from Ukrainian troops), and had received 15 D-30s, which were organized into two batteries by the time Debal'tsevo began. For air defense they received two Osa and one Strela-10 SAMs, as well as MANPADS. A company of cossacks provided security. They had also previously captured a single BM-27 Uragan MLRS from Ukraine. After the winter campaign of '15 the brigade entered another round of reformation. It got a number, the 10th Artillery Bde. It also got 5 more BM-27s, and transporter-loaders for them, to make a full battery. Also the BM-21s, 2S1s and Msta-Bs were all filled to TO for a full arty btln (18 systems each). Now the brigade is losing the 2S1 and D-30 btlns, which are being handed over to motor-rifle brigades, and instead has received the 2S5 Giantsint-B, and is expanding the Uragan battery into a full btln. They've also received relatively new Ural-632301 trucks. These were all produced post-2004 but the Russian military has opted out of purchasing more, and it's likely that they're getting rid of them by handing them off.

10-Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ñ‚Ð¸Ð»Ð»ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¸Ð³Ð°Ð´Ð° ЛÐР: militarizm

Personal comments: Clearly this is no small process. They're being turned into a full sized arty bde, while the artillery capabilities of other units are being enhanced. At this point they're not too different from line artillery units in the Russian military. Note the quantities of ammo on display in the photos. The unit clearly has strong logistical support. This also illustrates something I talked about during the earlier stage of the conflict. The capture of a single BM-27 is used to mask the deployment of 5 more of them from Russia.
 
Bellingcat have released a very detailed report, in relation to suspects responsible for the MH-17 shoot down. They're linking the 2nd Btln of the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (RF forces obviously) as prime suspects.

Detailed pdf report

Interesting read.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some unpleasant news. At Yasinovataya Ukrainain troops have been slowly gaining ground across the no-mans land between the two sides, trying to push back the rebels. The fighting has been gradually escalating. Meanwhile the rebels began their own offensive towards Avdeevka. It seems that Ukrainian positions near Avdeevka give them ideal fire over rebel supply routes near Yasinovataya, and the rebel aim is to eliminate Ukrainian pressure on Yasinovataya. Ukrainian sources are reporting an influx in wounded.

Бои в районе ЯÑиноватой - Colonel Cassad
Бои под ЯÑиноватой - Colonel Cassad
ОжеÑточенные бои под Ðвдеевкой - bmpd

Meanwhile Ukrainian forward observer Nadia Savchenko has been convicted in a Russian kangaroo court, to serve 22 years. Ukraine says they're willing to exchange two captured Russian service members for her. A surprisingly constructive position.

Предложен обмен - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Meanwhile Ukrainian forward observer Nadia Savchenko has been convicted in a Russian kangaroo court, to serve 22 years.
Another case where Putin played entirely for a domestic audience, ignoring the international consequences. He's also ignored Russian & international law, of course.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Another case where Putin played entirely for a domestic audience, ignoring the international consequences. He's also ignored Russian & international law, of course.
I'm a little bit confused. Ukrainian troops have been slowly trying to push the rebels back for a while now by grabbing pieces of no-man's land, in clear violation of the Minsk accords. This is simply the most blatant example, and because of the significance of Yasinovataya, the rebels are actually counter-attacking to eliminate the position from which this offensive was possible. This flare-up has little to do with Putin, who at this point, would just as soon have the Ukrainian conflict over with and forgotten. If anything incidents like this are support for Putin's claim that following the Minsk accords is out of Russia's hands.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Sorry, I was referring to the Savchenko case. I should have quoted the relevant text to make it clear. I'll fix it..
 

Strannik

Member
Another case where Putin played entirely for a domestic audience, ignoring the international consequences. He's also ignored Russian & international law, of course.
I can accept "ignoring the international consequences.." bit. The rest of the sentence highly debatable, in my view.
Overall on my books this so called "pilot" who newer had a chance to fly, who
Directed artillery fire at civilian, and 'accidentally' kill two reporters.
Serving for notorious nationalistic 'Adair' gang
As well as according to eyewitness, personally taking part in torture of prisoners taken by 'Adair'.

Fully deserve to spend very long time in prison.

It is a pity, she probably will be free as a result of prisoners exchange rather soon.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I can accept "ignoring the international consequences.." bit. The rest of the sentence highly debatable, in my view.
Overall on my books this so called "pilot" who newer had a chance to fly, who
Directed artillery fire at civilian, and 'accidentally' kill two reporters.
Serving for notorious nationalistic 'Adair' gang
As well as according to eyewitness, personally taking part in torture of prisoners taken by 'Adair'.

Fully deserve to spend very long time in prison.

It is a pity, she probably will be free as a result of prisoners exchange rather soon.
The case against her is unconvincing, so I'm honestly of the opinion that she was taken to be used as an exchange option. Check out the CI Team investigation.

English https://citeam.org/nadiya-savchenko-innocent/
Russian https://citeam.org/savchenko-innocent-ru/

Sorry, I was referring to the Savchenko case. I should have quoted the relevant text to make it clear. I'll fix it..
Ah I see. Like I replied to Strannik, I strongly suspect she will be used to trade for Russian service members in Ukrainian hands. The nature of the conflict makes this necessary, since Ukraine decided not to follow the rules of prisoner exchange (all for all) when it came to Russian military personnel.
 
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