Ukranian Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.

Strannik

Member
I've got to be honest I see Poroshenko as the ideal leader in this situation that could well bring the Ukraine out of it's current crisis. I see him as a man of integrity ...
Well, we all make mistakes, I do not know what to say. Maybe I could suggest to visit Ukrainian news outlets to see what Ukrainians themselves think about Parashenko... But then again ignorance is bliss.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
I've got to be honest I see Poroshenko as the ideal leader in this situation that could well bring the Ukraine out of it's current crisis. I see him as a man of integrity with perhaps the most unenviable job in the world.
A man of integrity, this guy is an oligarch, he's a crook, you don't get to his level of wealth in a country like Ukraine by being a nice guy, he's no Bill Gates. I bet him and all his buddies are lining there pockets already. Integrity my butt, as long as Ukraine has people like this in politics they will never get anywhere.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I've got to be honest I see Poroshenko as the ideal leader in this situation that could well bring the Ukraine out of it's current crisis. I see him as a man of integrity with perhaps the most unenviable job in the world.

Regarding his claim about the encirclement. If his troops were encircled then judging by how many broke out and how quickly it says very little for the quality of Russia forces guarding the net!

Don't forget his duty is to maintain morale of his troops in the face of overwhelmingly superior Russian fire power.

Not an enviable task.
He's a liar, and has been lying consistently. As far as encirclement goes, the Debal'tsevo pocket was effectively closed from the moment the rebels took Logvinovo. If you go back through my update posts, you should have no problem finding when that took place. Given that the taking of Logvinovo was backed by photos and video, just like the fall of Uglegorsk, there's little reason to doubt it. Recent interviews with Ukrainian military personnel who left the pocket confirm that they stopped receiving supplies shortly before the rebels announced the capture of Logvinovo. This essentially corroborates their claim.

As far as the government forces leaving, everything points to them being allowed to leave. Just like with the Ilovaysk pocket, the Russian government seems unwilling to have the Ukrainian military personnel slaughtered. In the case of Ilovaysk it appears that Ukrainian leadership made the decision to try to break out instead of leaving as per the agreement. In this case it appears that the Ukrainian military left by agreement, leaving behind all heavy weapons (with a single exception of one unit taking two tanks and one BMP-2 out of the pocket, but losing the BMP-2 on the way).

Finally as far as why he says what he says; there may be excellent reasons for him to lie (like wanting the Debal'tsevo pocket to be marked as Ukrainian per the Minsk-2 agreement, which didn't specify locations, merely referencing "the current front line". But ultimately to us, who are interested in information and analysis, it doesn't matter why he's lying. What matters is that he's lying. He's simply not a trustworthy source.

A man of integrity, this guy is an oligarch, he's a crook, you don't get to his level of wealth in a country like Ukraine by being a nice guy, he's no Bill Gates. I bet him and all his buddies are lining there pockets already. Integrity my butt, as long as Ukraine has people like this in politics they will never get anywhere.
Despite the economic crisis that has the Ukrainian GDP swirling down the toilet, his company has gotten bigger and more prosperous while he is in office. And of course he hasn't exactly kept his promise of selling off his private business after he takes office. He's a liar and a crook, but this is of course the standard when we look at Ukrainian presidents, so I suppose we can't even say that he's been any worse then his predecessors.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Or than the famously trustworthy Russian president.

It seems that the sad fate of most of the former USSR is to be in the hands of villains.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Or than the famously trustworthy Russian president.

It seems that the sad fate of most of the former USSR is to be in the hands of villains.
Well let's be honest. I don't think anyone in their right mind can say that we should taken Putin's statements at face value. Like when he sat there and claimed that the "little green men" were Crimean militias. Though to be honest, it was rather amusing. It was the kind of up front lie, where everyone knows it's a lie, but it's hard to prove. Some Russian news papers called it political theater.

What surprised me was that footage of the T-72B3 tanks near Debal'tsevo. It means that the rebels are so weak, that even a simple operation like closing the Debal'tsevo pocket requires assistance from Russian regulars.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
From reading all of the above, it is clear that there are two seperated and distinct attitudes (with variations) regarding the West's inclination to intervene. Doesn't look at there will be any agreement between those two sets of opinion anytime soon.

Having said that, I'll stick with the description of the conflicts, thanks.

Art
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'll try to get a longer update out tomorrow or wednesday, meanwhile it appears that the Ukrainian military has brought out significant quantities of heavy equipment out of the pocket. The reports appear to be that some Ukrainian units walked out on foot and on trucks, safely. Other columns, typically those riding armored vehicles or towing arty, were met with rebel "ambushes". It may be the case that the "green corridor" was only for infantry and trucks, while heavy weapons were prohibited. Whether this was a decision, like at Ilovaysk, to bring out the heavy weapons, or simple miscommunication inside the Ukrainian military is unclear.

It also appears that they took huge casualties. In one case a soldier says that over half of his company is "gone".

There was also an attempt to count up the numbers of Ukrainian vehicles that had escaped the pocket, but the numbers are sketchy, and it's not entirely clear whether all the vehicles were in the pocket. It's quite likely that some were part of the troops used to try and break through to the pocket.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoeDpF8Utls
dragon_first_1 - ПРОРЫВ ПОДРÐЗДЕЛЕÐИЙ ВСУ ИЗ РÐЙОÐРДЕБÐЛÐЦЕВО 18 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2015 г.
 
Besides local political capital, I think this is response to the U.S. announcing the intention of sending a Btln to Ukraine ,for similar purposes a week or so back - U.S. army to train Ukrainians in March: commander U.S. army Europe | Reuters

I thought I read somewhere that Canada is thinking of doing the same. To what level I cannot recall.

I find this move slightly provactive. Why not train the troops in Poland as was previously done ~6 months ago, unless this is to antagonise the situation?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In my opinion, all those moves will cause Russia to escalate, or at least consider doing so. Not a good way to direct this situation.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting development from the UK. Eager to see Russian response. To UK locals: How much if any of this move is politically motivated with UKIP and elections looming?
I've not actually heard much at all from UKIP about it.

But with respect to the GE, Fallon and a couple other higher ups have been very vocal about opposing defence cuts so engaging with Eastern European allies and frequent calls of a resurgent Russia can only support their case.

Same thing with IS.

However if we're talking escalation, I doubt we're deploying a whole lot of troops for training and the UK has canned sending weapons to Ukraine. Cameron has also said that he doesn't believe there's a military solution and would sooner ramp up EU sanctions.

The Guardian has the numbers, the initial package is 30 trainers to head to Kiev with 25 of those training medical, logistical, intelligence and infantry training. The ultimate plan is for 75 trainers.
 

gazzzwp

Member
In my opinion, all those moves will cause Russia to escalate, or at least consider doing so. Not a good way to direct this situation.
Feanor it should be obvious that we are dealing with a highly devious and calculating Russian leadership here. They obviously want to maintain the option to re-start the war at their discretion as soon as there is either strong economic support or military support.

In other words if no further support occurs I'm quite sure that Putin will be content to hold the present boundary lines.

Is that fair to Ukraine? What if the people want to see the country develop economically and become wealthy? The west has the power and resources to make that happen, however concurrent with that there has to be some military support as well.

It's like a giant sleeping over you. As soon as it senses movement it threatens to gobble you up.

In the meantime what about the people of the East with their bombed out towns? Who is going to support and regenerate that region? Not the West that's for sure. Russia is not economically able. Their future is grim indeed.

So I see support as inevitable; militarily slight but there will be economic investment on a large scale. Watch Russia re-start the conflict out of fear of a more powerful Ukraine on it's border.

Russia has to be stopped.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Feanor it should be obvious that we are dealing with a highly devious and calculating Russian leadership here. They obviously want to maintain the option to re-start the war at their discretion as soon as there is either strong economic support or military support.

In other words if no further support occurs I'm quite sure that Putin will be content to hold the present boundary lines.

Is that fair to Ukraine? What if the people want to see the country develop economically and become wealthy? The west has the power and resources to make that happen, however concurrent with that there has to be some military support as well.
Yeah, Ukraine is not at all united over this. Keep in mind that a few weeks ago, when the Kiev government told cities to pass declarations calling Russia an agressor, both Kharkov and Mariupol' refused to do it, saying that the situation is more complicated then that. ;)

There are a few other signs that Russia hasn't lost all of it's support across other Ukrainian provinces, and that quite a few people in Ukraine are unhappy with their governments actions in this war.

It's like a giant sleeping over you. As soon as it senses movement it threatens to gobble you up.
Short of dismembering Russia into a set of small and weak provinces, what else do you suggest?

In the meantime what about the people of the East with their bombed out towns? Who is going to support and regenerate that region? Not the West that's for sure. Russia is not economically able. Their future is grim indeed.
Like I said, Russia's position seems to be that the east has to be re-integrated under special conditions (Minsk-2 spells out those conditions by the way) and that means that they, being part of Ukraine, will be Ukraine's responsibility. You can already see it developing with the gas issues. Russia is sending natural gas to Ukraine both rebel and government controlled routes, and is charging the Ukrainian government for gas sent along both routes. In other words so far the Kiev government has been paying for the natural gas to heat rebel-controlled areas.

Now, one might say, if Kiev thinks those are their citizens, then Kiev should pay for gas, in order to prevent their wide-spread suffering. But on the other hand, Kiev is nearly broke, and up to its ears in debt. While Russia has the ability and the resources to supply gas to the rebel regions for free. They're small enough.

So I see support as inevitable; militarily slight but there will be economic investment on a large scale. Watch Russia re-start the conflict out of fear of a more powerful Ukraine on it's border.

Russia has to be stopped.
If Ukraine was a stable and prosperous country then there would have been no conflict.
 

narvi

New Member
It seems that Poland will also send instructors.

The Defense Minister Tomasz Siemioniak said that "up to 100" would deployed to Ukraine to help with the training. He also said that it is a continuation of already existing cooperation between Ukraine and Poland, referring to common POL-LIT-UKR brigade and military students exchange program.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@feanor...if Ukraine was stable and prosperous were would be no conflict...the latter is sort of required for the former and perhaps vice-versa. Ukraine has great potential if the locals can figure out how to progress and the other players pi$$ off. Too bad this won't happen.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Another summary of rebel formations, basically the same as the previous one, but with more and newer photos. If someone really wants the details, I'll translate.

bmpd - Предположительный облик вооруженных Ñил ÐовороÑÑии

American counter-mortar radar captured in Debal'tsevo. Well that didn't take long.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1186680.html

Photos from the warzone.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/4158884.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4163601.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4162596.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4163455.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4164521.html
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ВСРin action...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Ещё фотки из "мешка"...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ВСУ ÐТОшит...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ВСРin action...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...

Tavor assault rifles captured from Ukrainian troops.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "Было ваше - Ñтало наше..." (Ñ)

Ukrainian Army camp in Debal'tsevo shortly after the fighting has stopped. The locals are picking through the ruins for food. The locals note that some of the humanitarian aid meant for the civilians was taken by the military (namely the meet and the condensed milk), and that people whose relatives were suspected to be among the rebels were denied humanitarian aid.

You'll note from the footage that plenty of completely functional vehicles, weapons, and ammo, were found. The Ukrainian retreat was not organized. The rebels say 7 tanks, 80 trucks, plus BTRs, BMPs, mortars, arty, etc.

You can clearly see that the imperial era railroad station is still intact, and even a lot of the trains are still in working condition.

The civilians report that the Ukrainian military was often drunk, and on some occasions shot up people's windows or fences, or even took things away from the locals. They also detail beatings, rape, and torture of people. Locals were threatened with execution for helping separatists. One local compares it to the Nazi occupation. Another local says that his mother was killed, when the retreating Ukrainian troops simply shot up everything around them. Another local claims that when they hid in the cellars, the Ukrainian military often shot into the cellars intentionally. Note that the people in question are mostly the elderly. The younger have mostly left the town.

Prisoner exchange is continuing, on an all for all basis. In the close up scene, the rebel fighter shows the Ukrainian prisoner his (the rebels) Ukrainian pass port and says that he's a local, and he has a small child, that he will "rip them apart" for his child.

Interviews with the prisoners reveal that the wounded and dead Ukrainian military were left abandoned, during the retreat, and then their own positions were shelled by the Ukrainian artillery.

They've also captured ATGMs, 3 2S1 SP arty, etc. The rebel fighter notes that the vehicles are all in working order. Government troops tried to burn them before leaving.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6FuW21hrME

An interview with a Ukrainian prisoner from Azov regiment. The regiment is known for it's far right leanings. The regiment calls itself Socialist-Nationalists (you know, as opposed to National-Socialists).

He says they have foreign fighter from Scandinavia, from the US, etc. They also have a lot of foreign instructors. He says he's seen foreign fighters mainly with sniper gear. The US trained them in first aid. He mentions they have Swedes, Norwegians, French, and even a Serb. He notes they're mostly specialists, including in UAV use.

He also notes that their mortars are inaccurate, and in bad conditions, so they try to hit their targets but they're not very accurate.

He surrendered voluntarily when he was cut off from friendly lines, and does not want to go back, he doesn't want to keep fighting. He has requested to not be exchanged for others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkHCK9ga8Ys

The DNR rebels say they've pulled back 156 tube arty, and 40 MLRS pieces, and will pull back another 180 tube, and 18 MLRS. This makes for 336 cannons, and 58 MLRS, in the DNR alone. This is comparable to the entire artillery park of Britain or France.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Отвод...
bmpd - ДонбаÑÑкий Верден
Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - Ðифига Ñебе у ребÑÑ‚ арты!!!!

The LNR says Kiev troops are begging a pullback of heavy weapons.

Ð’ ЛÐÐ* Ñообщили об отводе украинÑких войÑк

Interview with an officer from the Ukrainian 128th Mech Bde reveals that the brigade had a local agreement that allowed them to withdraw on trucks, with personal weapons. The first column did that. The second and third columns tried to bring their armor out, and were badly hit by the rebels.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - ПодробноÑти выхода 128 бригады ВСУ из Дебальцево

Meanwhile Kiev says they will only complete the withdrawal of heavy weapons if there is 24 hours without shellings.

Киев назвал уÑловие отвода Ñ‚Ñжелого вооружениÑ

The OSCE says it's useless, because nobody will notify them about what's going on, as far the pulling back of forces.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - МиÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÐžÐ‘Ð¡Ð• в ДонбаÑÑе вновь подтвердила, что толку от нее – как от козлов молока

Project for further development of the Bars armored car.

bmpd - Проект Ð±Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ°Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»Ñ "БарÑ-6"

Ukraine is pulling D-48 85mm AT guns out of storage. This is ominous in two ways. It means that more modern Soviet arty is running out, and also these guns are not covered by Minsk-2, meaning they can be deployed to the front line despite the ceasefire and agreement for withdrawing heavy weapons.

bmpd - Украина раÑконÑервирует Ñтарые ÑоветÑкие 85-мм противотанковые пушки Д-48

Ukrainian nuclear plants are continuing repairs of vehicle for the military.

bmpd - УкраинÑкие ÐÐ*С продолжают ремонтировать автомобильную технику вооруженных Ñил Украины

The Ukrainian military is supposed to get 50 BMP-1U vehicles this year. This is a BMP-1 with a new combat module, carrying a 30mm cannon, AGS-17 grenade launcher, and a PKT. This isn't a bad upgrade, essentially making the BMP-1 more capable then the BMP-2.

bmpd - УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡Ð¸Ñ‚ более 50 модернизированных БМП-1

The Ukrainian military is getting another 20 Spartan armored cars.

УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡Ð¸Ð»Ð° 20 новых бронированных автомобилей «Спартан»

The Saxon armored truck broke down during demonstration in front of government officials. Ukrainian diesel was too low quality.

bmpd - БТÐ* Saxon ÑломалÑÑ Ð²Ð¾ Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ·ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ в Киеве

Up-armored cars of the 11th Motor-Rifles Btln, Kiev forces.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Бронеавтомобили 11-го мотопехотного батальона

A display of captured rebel equipment in Kiev. Allegedly it all came from Russia.

bmpd - Ð’Ñ‹Ñтавка "доказательÑтв агреÑÑии роÑÑийÑких войÑк" в Киеве

A brief interview of a Russian correspondent from Kommersant with 3 Russian soldiers, who are fighting as volunteers in Donbass, on paid special leave. They say they want to fight until the war is over, to stop the war.

Ú - Â ïàìïàñàõ Äîíáàññà

Kiev police scatters the Credit Maydan protesters. Deja vu anyone?

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð*то какое-то долбанное дежа-вю: Ð¼Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð° "кредитный Майдан" под Ðацбанком

And massive Right Sector protests at the MVD and General procuracy.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Правый Сектор под Генпрокуратурой и МВД

At the presidents administration.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Правый Сектор под ÐдминиÑтрацией Президента

Inflation in Ukraine has officially reached 30%. God knows what it really is.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ÐžÑ„Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ñ„Ð»ÑÑ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð±Ð»Ð¸Ð¶Ð°ÐµÑ‚ÑÑ Ðº 30%

Meanwhile Russia says that Ukraine has stopped paying for gas, while Ukraine says they won't pay for gas, unless Russia stops sending gas to the pipelines controlled by the rebels.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Гитлер каждое утро звонил Сталину и требовал погаÑить долг за ÑлектричеÑтво оккупированного МинÑка

And the DNR says that they no longer need gas from Ukraine, Russia is supplying them with enough natural gas to cover their needs. Though given the above, they may be billingaine for it.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ÄÍÐ çàÿâèëè, ÷òî ãàçà èç Ðîññèè õâàòàåò âñåé ðåñïóáëèêå, è ïðåêðàòèëè ïëàòèòü çà ïîñòàâêè Óêðàèíå

Ukraine is setting up "information troops" who are volunteers that are being taught how to make fake social media accounts.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / Óêðàèíñêàÿ «äèâàííàÿ àðìèÿ» âñòóïèëà â áîé

Poroshenko is in the UAE negotiating arms deals.

Порошенко проÑит у ОÐÐ* поÑтавку вооружений и Ñнижение цены на нефть
Порошенко: в ходе IDEX-2015 Украина заключила порÑдка 20 контрактов на поÑтавку вооружений

The OSCE has declined to condemn Ukraine for limiting Russian journalists ability to work in the country, saying that they understand their security concerns.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÎÁÑÅ íå ðåøèëàñü îñóäèòü Óêðàèíó çà îãðàíè÷åíèÿ äëÿ ðîññèéñêèõ æóðíàëèñòîâ

Another Russian MChS column is heading to Ukraine with aid.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êîëîííà Ì×Ñ Ðîññèè ñ ãóìàíèòàðíîé ïîìîùüþ äëÿ Äîíáàññà îòïðàâèëàñü â Ðîñòîâñêóþ îáëàñòü

Former Maydan activists are fleeing Ukraine, because the new government is incapable and unwilling to perform necessary reforms. Personally I think they're fleeing because of the waves or arrests of political activists over the past year.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÑÌÈ: Àêòèâèñòû Ìàéäàíà áåãóò ñ Óêðàèíû

An explosion at a pro-Ukraine political rally in Kharkov has killed 3. The situation is weird. Prior to this there were clear attacks in Kharkov and elsewhere targeted at disrupting Ukraine's ability to wage the war, including explosions of trains full of fuel, with generally few or no casualties. This looks like a demonstrative and targeted attack with no military value. Given how little support there is in Kharkov for Poroshenko, this looks very fishy.

Ð’ Харькове произошел взрыв во Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¼Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸Ð½Ð³Ð°
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
The numbers of artillery being pulled back by the DNR republic alone are staggering.

It more like the artillery park of Britain and France combined (although less modern). And that doesn't even cover all the mortars and probably some old guns with tubes smaller than 100mm.

I expect the artillery to be overrepresented on the rebel side compared to a classical soviet TO&E otherwise we would be looking at the artillery of nearly a whole corps...
 

wittmanace

Active Member
The numbers of artillery being pulled back by the DNR republic alone are staggering.

It more like the artillery park of Britain and France combined (although less modern). And that doesn't even cover all the mortars and probably some old guns with tubes smaller than 100mm.

I expect the artillery to be overrepresented on the rebel side compared to a classical soviet TO&E otherwise we would be looking at the artillery of nearly a whole corps...
Do you mean it is a disproportionately artillery dominated force, or that the rebel arty numbers are exaggerated?
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I mean that the rebel forces are artillery heavy compared to other branches.
What we witnessed during the conflict is heavy shelling of positions, checkpoints, rear areas, columns and some random harrassement fire. On the other hand many direct engagements seem to be more on the company level.

It is alot of firepower even when quite a portion of the systems are old. The counterfire and deep recon capabilities of the UA are rather limited just as is their ability to quickly cover terrain with heavy mobile forces.

Under these circumstances even a battery of good old D-30s is a major force multiplier.

And do not to forget the additional support by modern systems from over the border should the UA ever come close to the russian border again.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top