rsemmes
Active Member
"The objective is to move beyond political rhetoric..." or maximalist initial position and start actual negotiations. What was Putin willing to give up in 2022?
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
rsemmes
Active Member
As reliable as the Minsk accords and our good faith? Or as Nixon in Vietnam and towards South Vietnam?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
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No he isn't... he's demanding withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk region. It seems that Russian leadership is willing to settle for that kind of end to the war. Obviously the details require working out but territorially Ukraine is already worse off than they would have been had they taken the Anchorage deal.
Well whether Ukraine can get security guarantees and how reliable they are really isn't up to Putin. Again, details would have to be worked out, but based on previous negotiations it seems Russia doesn't object to Ukrainian EU membership. At the end of the day if the west wants to provide strong, credible, and binding security guarantees, they don't have to be tied to treaty between Ukraine and Russia, ending the war. I think it would be wiser if they weren't.
This is English. you supply equipment, training, targeting, internet, maintenance, etc. and you have to train them to use it in a combined way according to Blinkin.. if this is not planning the offensives, what is it, just support? remember he said Austin put together 50 countries that are supporting Ukraine in this way and the goal is to see Ukraine get back some of the land they lost in the last 15 months, according to Blinkin.
it really sounds like planning the offensive for Ukraine.
i said i will bet my last. i used the word bet, in case you missed that one, if i was so sure i won't use bet, i will just make my statement like i have done with other things i have said. there is no need to lie
"I will bet my last" means you feel confident of winning, i.e. you're saying that you believe the outcome is not uncertain. You're 100% sure you'll get back your stake, & more. By saying that, you were, in effect, stating as a fact that weapons were being made in factories in Ukraine by westerners.
I'm qualified to teach this language. I've helped students achieve very high levels of English, e.g. a non-native speaker qualifying to study (successfully) as a speech therapist in English, after initially not reaching the required standard. Currently employed by the NHS & promoted, last I heard.
The reality is that Ukrainian-designed weapons are being made in factories in Ukraine by Ukrainians. Ukraine is also receiving weapons designed & made in factories abroad.
It doesn't sound to me like planning the offensive, & I'm qualified to teach English as a foreign language. It sounds like giving the Ukrainians the resources & abilities to succeed in whatever they plan. That's very different. Training someone to drive or repair a western tank, & giving them satellite data, isn't planning an offensive. It's giving them tools.
And note that was a few years ago. It's coming up to 52 months since Russia invaded Ukraine.
I've explained elsewhere that a bet can be a sure thing, i.e. 100% certain. Saying one would bet one's last pound/dollar/etc. on something is a statement that you believe it is a fact.
You're either telling lies, or you don't understand what you're writing. I'm not going to reply to you again.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I am not sure, though I have no issues with English (laughing), is the argument that the Americans had not planned the UA counteroffensives in 2022-23? If that is the case, then I will bet my pants they were because it has been widely reported, the sides blamed each other for the failure, etc and it was discussed here (quite extensively) at the time. So yes, they (not just Americans, other NATO members were involved) planned the UA offensive. I mean this is a fact by now, to be written in history books as such, no?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Sequence of events: invite a Russian billionaire that (at least) used to be close to (or is aquatinted with) Putin -> ask him to talk to Putin and express that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and Zelensky would like to meet in person to talk -> Putin expectedly refuses or does not return the call -> write an “open letter” aimed at lemmings expressing your mucho and trying to humiliate Putin, while still being desperate for a meeting that will never happen.
More from the thread:
Ukraine wanted to prove it takes direct peace talks seriously while the US, which tried to broker a ceasefire, focuses on the Middle East war.
Kyiv also sees leverage in Russia’s slowed offensive, huge casualties, and Ukraine’s deep strikes behind enemy lines. 2/
Kyiv hopes its success in halting Russia’s offensive, now slowed to a crawl, and hitting deep behind enemy lines can push momentum toward an immediate ceasefire.
Putin still believes Russia’s larger resources will eventually wear down Ukraine’s resistance over time. 3/
Putin: The only sense in it is for the Ukrainians to stop the advance of our armed forces.
At Russia’s St Petersburg economic conference, he said a business representative came after Kyiv and he saw no point in meeting Zelenskyy directly. 4/
Abramovich has mediated between Russia and Ukraine since the first weeks of the 2022 invasion.
He helped broker Istanbul talks; those talks collapsed after Ukraine learned of alleged Russian war crimes. Later he helped secure the Black Sea grain export deal. 5/
Abramovich’s role became less prominent after Russia began negotiating directly with the US last year.
People close to him still place him in prisoner exchanges, other bilateral talks with Ukraine, and aspects of last year’s stalled US-led peace plan as well. 6/
Zelenskyy also sent Putin a public letter on Thursday.
He offered a ceasefire and one-on-one talks while pointing to Russia’s battlefield setbacks, Ukraine’s drone strikes on St Petersburg during Putin’s economic forum, and Moscow’s reliance on North Korea and China. 7/
Putin called Zelenskyy’s letter somewhat rude and said it made in-person meetings impossible.
He said talks could happen at foreign ministry or secret service level, appearing to rule out his own involvement while still claiming Russia remains open to talks. 8X
This demonstration of “takes direct talks seriously” instead illustrates the weakness to the Russian leadership (and any reasonable person).
“Also sees leverage”, except that is not how leverage works. This is why Russian, much stronger “leverage”, didn’t work in 2022. Leverage is sustained over time, not a two-month moderately successful actions that are guaranteed to be desalt with as the natural evolution of the war takes place. This has been proven in this conflict over and again. The overall trajectory of the war has not changed and the initiative firmly remains on the Russian side. Until this is changed, there is no leverage.
“Huge casualties”… I am not sure if people have memory span of a goldfish or simply do not follow/care enough to keep tabs, but there were times when Ukrainians consistently updated their daily numbers to include well above 2,000 Russian casualties per day. The war is still being fought and much has been lost since. They now claim catastrophic 1,000 per day. Writing various numbers into a spreadsheet does not change the situation.
At the same time, we are expected to believe, as has always been the case, that higher UA activity in the offensive actions lead to even higher RU losses and the ratio is always favourable to Ukraine, even better than simply defending. In the meantime, for example:
The manpower situation has not been solved or gotten any better in Ukraine. Attrition rate is favourable to Russia - even if they simply dig in and wait, they will still win because of it. This is simple math that no one can avoid. All these stories about a UGV holding a position for two months is complete bullshit for the lemmings, it never happened and cannot happen (even if simply due to battery capacity). The same is true for these assets taking Russian positions.
“He offered ceasefire, one-on-one talks and pointed out”… Again, aimed at the lemmings. If he truly believes what he writes, he is as delusional as ever.
Here is a newsflash: Putin will never meet Zelensky unless he comes in to sign a capitulation agreement. There will never be a face-to face meeting between the two. These two had only met once, in 2019, when Zelensky mocked Putin and laughed on live TV, while Putin was talking about implementation of the Minsk agreements.
I would guess this was the moment Putin truly realized that he was being trolled and sequence of events has followed. In this scenario it is actually pretty funny how people constantly talk about lack of trust in Russian commitments/obligations. Like I said, people either have memory spans of a goldfish, do not follow/keep tabs, or simply delude themselves into the narrative pushed by Ukraine. Tango is not a solo performance.
It is in my opinion - in fact, to me it is as clear as a sunny day - there will never be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky (unless, see above). The letter had only confirmed such an impossibility. Again, if Zelensky was, as advertised, showing his seriousness and willingness to negotiate, he is as dumb as a cork. His actions in that 2019 meeting paved the way for where they are today. His actions now are paving the way for where they will be in the future. He is not a serious person who is looking for honest negotiations (regardless of what people think of the Russian side’s intentions). He is the same clown he was in 2019 and prior and Putin will never negotiate with him. It’s that simple. The proposal should be to continue bilateral talks in some previous of an improved format. Otherwise, there is no seriousness to any of it.
More from the thread:
Ukraine wanted to prove it takes direct peace talks seriously while the US, which tried to broker a ceasefire, focuses on the Middle East war.
Kyiv also sees leverage in Russia’s slowed offensive, huge casualties, and Ukraine’s deep strikes behind enemy lines. 2/
Kyiv hopes its success in halting Russia’s offensive, now slowed to a crawl, and hitting deep behind enemy lines can push momentum toward an immediate ceasefire.
Putin still believes Russia’s larger resources will eventually wear down Ukraine’s resistance over time. 3/
Putin: The only sense in it is for the Ukrainians to stop the advance of our armed forces.
At Russia’s St Petersburg economic conference, he said a business representative came after Kyiv and he saw no point in meeting Zelenskyy directly. 4/
Abramovich has mediated between Russia and Ukraine since the first weeks of the 2022 invasion.
He helped broker Istanbul talks; those talks collapsed after Ukraine learned of alleged Russian war crimes. Later he helped secure the Black Sea grain export deal. 5/
Abramovich’s role became less prominent after Russia began negotiating directly with the US last year.
People close to him still place him in prisoner exchanges, other bilateral talks with Ukraine, and aspects of last year’s stalled US-led peace plan as well. 6/
Zelenskyy also sent Putin a public letter on Thursday.
He offered a ceasefire and one-on-one talks while pointing to Russia’s battlefield setbacks, Ukraine’s drone strikes on St Petersburg during Putin’s economic forum, and Moscow’s reliance on North Korea and China. 7/
Putin called Zelenskyy’s letter somewhat rude and said it made in-person meetings impossible.
He said talks could happen at foreign ministry or secret service level, appearing to rule out his own involvement while still claiming Russia remains open to talks. 8X
This demonstration of “takes direct talks seriously” instead illustrates the weakness to the Russian leadership (and any reasonable person).
“Also sees leverage”, except that is not how leverage works. This is why Russian, much stronger “leverage”, didn’t work in 2022. Leverage is sustained over time, not a two-month moderately successful actions that are guaranteed to be desalt with as the natural evolution of the war takes place. This has been proven in this conflict over and again. The overall trajectory of the war has not changed and the initiative firmly remains on the Russian side. Until this is changed, there is no leverage.
“Huge casualties”… I am not sure if people have memory span of a goldfish or simply do not follow/care enough to keep tabs, but there were times when Ukrainians consistently updated their daily numbers to include well above 2,000 Russian casualties per day. The war is still being fought and much has been lost since. They now claim catastrophic 1,000 per day. Writing various numbers into a spreadsheet does not change the situation.
At the same time, we are expected to believe, as has always been the case, that higher UA activity in the offensive actions lead to even higher RU losses and the ratio is always favourable to Ukraine, even better than simply defending. In the meantime, for example:
The manpower situation has not been solved or gotten any better in Ukraine. Attrition rate is favourable to Russia - even if they simply dig in and wait, they will still win because of it. This is simple math that no one can avoid. All these stories about a UGV holding a position for two months is complete bullshit for the lemmings, it never happened and cannot happen (even if simply due to battery capacity). The same is true for these assets taking Russian positions.
“He offered ceasefire, one-on-one talks and pointed out”… Again, aimed at the lemmings. If he truly believes what he writes, he is as delusional as ever.
Here is a newsflash: Putin will never meet Zelensky unless he comes in to sign a capitulation agreement. There will never be a face-to face meeting between the two. These two had only met once, in 2019, when Zelensky mocked Putin and laughed on live TV, while Putin was talking about implementation of the Minsk agreements.
I would guess this was the moment Putin truly realized that he was being trolled and sequence of events has followed. In this scenario it is actually pretty funny how people constantly talk about lack of trust in Russian commitments/obligations. Like I said, people either have memory spans of a goldfish, do not follow/keep tabs, or simply delude themselves into the narrative pushed by Ukraine. Tango is not a solo performance.
It is in my opinion - in fact, to me it is as clear as a sunny day - there will never be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky (unless, see above). The letter had only confirmed such an impossibility. Again, if Zelensky was, as advertised, showing his seriousness and willingness to negotiate, he is as dumb as a cork. His actions in that 2019 meeting paved the way for where they are today. His actions now are paving the way for where they will be in the future. He is not a serious person who is looking for honest negotiations (regardless of what people think of the Russian side’s intentions). He is the same clown he was in 2019 and prior and Putin will never negotiate with him. It’s that simple. The proposal should be to continue bilateral talks in some previous of an improved format. Otherwise, there is no seriousness to any of it.
every gambling man knows that a bet is there to be lost no matter how sure you are. its a bet, am sure i will win but i might lose, it's always 50 50 with bets, that's why i phrased my statement in that way. English has a lot of translation problems, we might be reading the same thing and getting different interpretations of what is written, sometimes people end up in court because of that.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Wrong. It’ almost never 50/50. Most bets have higher/lower probability of winning, hence different payouts.
that's your opinion.. it clearly sounds to me like he was planning very detail of the offensive, from providing equipment to training on how to use equipment and even maintenance when said equipment breaks down, Austin his boy also gathered 50 countries to join in the plans.
i didn't say it, Blinken said it, its there for every one to hear.
Russia is just scared of NATO, if not, they have all the evidence they need to get reckless like Iran and dish punishment to everybody in the area.
English again, everybody knows what a bet is, your sure of your bet until you win or lose it. why bet then, if it was 100% sure. just go and take your winnings, why wait till the end of the game?
I support Arsenal, i was confident we will win against PSG in the UEFA Champions league final, i slapped a little 200 quid on the bet, hoping to win 1490. 6 minutes into the game my people score, confidence grew, i kept telling my son, i told u we will win. at half time i was being offered 389 quid but i really thought we will win so i didn't take it, i ended up losing the bet and my money. so you can be sure of your bet and still lose, it's always 50 50 not 100%
you know i know exactly what am writing, you try to spin it that Bliken was not planning Ukraine offensive even when the man is saying it clearly.
i am not lying because a bet is there to be won or lost even if i was sure of my bet..
yes agreed, it's 50 50 in the sense that, no matter the probability on the bet, you either lose or you win... you can have a bet with a high probability of winning and still lose, it happens all the time
Zelensky is a big clown, he's not serious about peace talks, Putin describes the letter as rude. i read it and honestly it sound like a rant. how can you write such a letter and expect Russia to take you serious, Zelensky is in London most likely begging for something, he gave sky an interview where the host was making fun of the letter, 'it was a cheeky letter' she said to him.
if you want to read the letter, here's a copy.
‘You can stop your war’: Zelenskyy’s open letter to Putin – in full
Russians are increasingly tired of the conflict and the time to end it is now, Ukraine’s president tells his Russian counterpart in an open letter
www.theguardian.com