We have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and after that the Donbas is free.
In my opinion we have 3 main ways to do this.
First - continue the crawling offensive with inconsistent success, not counting the casualties which will be very large. Based on the current slowed tempo that's 5 years minimum. We can accelerate it a little bit by throwing into the fight everything we've got left of combat equipment and aviation, and if this is done skillfully and with good sense, then with roughly the same casulaties in personnel but also equipment we can liberate these 15%. And then transition to a static defense, accumulating resources.
The second is to transition to a defense yesterday, dig in, and transition to destroying enemy forces and other targets until such a time as they run out of them, or we run out of personnel and weapons. This variant is not time-limited and can last forever. And judging the tendency of expanded strikes on our rears, expanding quantity and radius of strikes, on an infinite timeline, our casualties could be as large or even larger than the first option.
The third variant is a combination of the first two with the use of nuclear weapons and other WMDs. Here our casualties and risks are practically impossible to predict, but we have to remember that every new day of the SMO brings closer the moment when the enemy will have WMDs. And they may use them immediately.
We have to understand that all 3 variants could end not how we want them to, regardless of the price.
In light of reports about strategic initiate, newly liberated old people villages, and a de-facto static front line, I can't imagine in what moment we will transition to an acceptance of the inevitable and move from a crawling standing with pairs to a regime of maximum preservation of our own personnel while dealing maximum damage to the enemy, to force them to negotiate. And continuing negotiations will need to be starting from the de-facto line of contact. And use not military but diplomatic means to decide the fate of the last 15%.
We have to understand that the enemy situation is worse than ours, but they have stability and resources to fight for another couple of years for sure even in their current position, and with increased support they could go for many years.
Of course for every day of war we lose more than Ukraine. In essence Ukraine is gone. Full external control, external financing, destroy industry and agriculture, a dying population, the young fleeing, liquidation of constitutional freedoms and rights, and a lack of any prospects for a normal future.
We still have all that for now. Which is why every day costs us more.
Maybe us, or the enemy, has some sort of clever plan, military genius, or wonder weapon up the sleeve which will come out and radically change the battlefield, but since for 4 years nobody has done so, there are doubts.
Of course this is what I subjectively see based on the situation today, with the information I have. What tomorrow will look like, and how it is "for real" I do not know. Maybe it will be much better, maybe only a little different.
