So what is the alternative? What is to be gained for sustaining the war for another year? Will Ukraine be in a better position a year from now? Will it regain lands and whatever else they are looking (rather hoping) to achieve? The answer, in my opinion, is a hard no.
Betrayal of Euros? I don’t think so. I am going to tap that sign again: this is what happens when you want the ball in someone else’s court instead of being a serious and rational player. They did this to themselves, not Trump. They can also still reject the whole thing and so can Ukraine. Wasn’t there a conviction by many just a few short months ago that Ukraine and Europe should just say ef off to the US and keep going on their own? What happened to that plan?
Reuters now reports that the Trump admin is threatening to stop weapon deliveries to and intel sharing with Ukraine.
We are basically back to square one with Trump, but potentially better terms than last time. There are even some vague security guarantees this time:
But we have to be honest with ourselves and Ukraine in particular (as we should have been long time ago): no one in their right mind will send their troops to fight for Ukraine in any official and open capacity.
Here is another thought from the past. The Euros can step in here and provide better, more concrete guarantees. After all, it’s only the second best army in Ukraine and -pick your nonsense- they are standing against.
The most frustrating part is that this was so obvious years ago and talked about right here (all documented in the posts). There was no chance ever (!) Ukraine would actually defeat Russia. This is a ridiculous proposition. All these needless waste of lives and destruction. I said back in 2022 that the patient is more dead than alive, back when the times were still “good”. Many thought that was preposterous and/or offensive. Things are much worse now.
Non-expansion of NATO is another obvious outcome of this war if Russia were to succeed. This is the entire point. This could had been avoided had the NATO members not get themselves involved head-deep into the conflict and basically become direct participants.
Kazakhstan… Russia does not need to invade Kazakhstan. Also, Kazakhstan would fold ten times over If it did with a fraction of resources Russians used in 2022. The same is more or less true for any other ex-Soviet state, but Ukraine, as we had found out the hard way. Kazakhstan is a nothing burger in comparison. Some regions of Kazakhstan, I bet, would not even know that there was an invasion before the outcome was obvious. Moreover, Kazakhs are not as dumb to provoke such a turn of events. Those who had forgotten, should refresh themselves on the events of early 2022 in Kazakhstan, just before the UA invasion, and the outcome of those events.
To finish off this post, none of the things are obvious and no outcome is determined. I doubt this new plan will be outright agreed to by either side. There will be more ball passing and other nonsense. The war, in the meantime, will continue. More death and destruction. It will then eventually end, with this plan or some other, with situation for Ukraine deteriorating on the exponential scale. It does not mean there will be some immediate collapse, but in time they will lose everything they have if this continues long enough. This outcome is rather predictable.
ISW disagrees with my assessment. Perhaps, they are right. We now, however, are looking for an ability to “challenge Putin’s theory of victory”, not actually a victory of our own.
This is another frustrating part: these people have been signing these songs for years now, sitting in their comfortable chairs, warm offices, all amenities within reach. It’s amazing how clueless these people are and lack understanding of places and people they write about, as well as some basic things, or so it seems. These people are a big part of the problem because they affect policy, war and peace, life and death, building and destruction. While they create the propaganda content, or should, it appears they believe the nonsense themselves, so it is no propaganda, but their actual view of the situation, quoted and spread/amplified by the lemmings with little to no clue at all, who themselves called Ukrainians Russians until a few years ago (any Ukrainian who has lived “out West” for a while can confirm this) and didn’t really see a difference between the two countries. They now sing praises, differentiate between mental capacities, brutality, you name it, between the two nations, tweeting ridicules, etc. In reality, they should pack up their bags and head to the trenches, to save Ukraine from this terrible outcome, kill some nasty Russians, maybe even assassinate Putin and let the justice they are demanding prevail. Anyway… this “five-page” post is going to end here. Things suck, but what are you gonna do.
vk.com
www.google.com
nypost.com
www.politico.eu