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It's already happening to some extent. Populations are being displaced as the wall of fire and death rolls forward. Behind the wall, after it has passed, some come out of the basements but they are few. Some return, and they're the ones either supporting Russia or likelier willing to live under Russian rule if it means they can go home. Today Mariupol' once again has over 200 000 population, possibly as high as 300 000, from the pre-war 450 000. But I don't think anyone particularly strongly pro-Ukrainian would return. 1-2 generations later, and it won't be any more Ukrainian nationally then Belgorod. The shift is less dramatic in areas Russia occupied quickly like Crimea, Melitopol', Berdyansk, and northern Lugansk region. If I had to take a guess, I think you'd find the most pro-Ukrainian populations still living in Russian held areas in Energodar, Tokmak, Melitopol', etc. But of course places like Kharkov and Chernigov are plenty russified, compared to somewhere like Vinnitsa or Zhitomir, nevermind L'vov. And it's unlikely that population will rapidly shift. If the war continues and Russia pushed in Kharkov region of course the trend will likely continue. Making matters more decisive, Russia has instituted very thorough background checks on Ukrainians trying to enter Russia including social media history checks. On the other hand residents of areas Russia annexes have an expedited Russian citizenship path, and I'm not clear on how that's being handled vs the background checks in question. Note when I say residents, to the best of my understanding this is based on their Ukrainian residency listed in their internal passport. Lastly Russia is doing what they can to attract population in areas where reconstruction efforts are in effect by handing out free housing and reconstruction certificates to homeowners. So it remains to be seen how much things move.
EDIT: An interesting article from Big Serge discussing the change in Ukrainian strategy and taking a broader look at Russia's strategy in the Donbas. The only thing I would question is that Russia will necessarily push up to the "banana" as he calls it from the south-west. We haven't really seen Russian attempt to take the hills west of Konstantinovka, which would be an important step in that direction. I think Russia will attempt to accomplish the same purpose by taking Dobropol'ye, and then Belozerskoe and Novodonetskoe, pushing north through the western part of Donetsk region. I think the big picture analysis is correct.
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