The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
The few videos posted here that I saw of human vs drones, usually shows a bunch of unaware people being hit a few seconds before spotting the drones. Or even not noticing them. I am not sure I saw any video that fits your description of "split seconds" between detection and being hit. The worst case I remember seeing had a reasonable number of seconds for people to disperse before the first soldier could be hit.
The identification issue can easily be nullified by keeping one or two persons permanently watching the skies for drones. To spot a drone should be doable at least, at a few hundred of meters away, given the contrast between their colors and a blue, white or even grey sky.
At hundred of meters, it would take a decent amount of time to arrive, enough to the soldiers to disperse at safety enough distance one another.
Even if the detection distance was not enough, it could be easily improved using drones that would precede the soldiers and probe the sky for the enemy drones many kilometers away.
This assuming open areas. On trees and buildings, it depends if one would have enough visibility to look for the drones efficiently. One possibility would be to keep the watchers on specific spots between the trees where there is better visibility. On buildings, to keep the watchers outside. Another possibility is to keep using drones permanently to watch the sky.
I read the article (more of an introduction) and might read the future English translation, depending on its size.
But that's precisely the contrary of what I am suggesting here. No one under a reasonable risk of being attacked should be submitted to it without proper training. People should train against their own drone teams before going into any offensive operation.
No secret here, just basic logical thinking, that's clearly not being used by most involved.
Can you provide some detail of why you believe volunteers are fighting in Ukraine for money ,you would have to supply some evidence of what they were being paid in their normal jobs back home for that comparison ,a lance corporal in the A.D.F starts at a minimum $49,000 aus dollars to $88.000
rsemmes
Active Member
I've got this...
www.google.com
and this...
I guess that in a couple of days or so, Kalibrated will be right.
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.
www.google.com
and this...
I guess that in a couple of days or so, Kalibrated will be right.
rsemmes
Active Member
No Taurus for Kiev, from the horse's mouth.
www.lemonde.fr
This is one little inconvenience of living on promises. (What does Zelenski have?, What can he do?)
En direct, guerre en Ukraine : l’Allemagne n’envisage toujours pas de livrer des missiles Taurus à l’Ukraine
Le ministre de la défense allemand, en visite à Kiev, a annoncé le prochain déblocage d’une enveloppe d’aide militaire supplémentaire de 1,9 milliard d’euros. Mais Berlin ne compte pas livrer ces missiles de longue portée réclamés depuis un certain temps par Kiev.
www.lemonde.fr
This is one little inconvenience of living on promises. (What does Zelenski have?, What can he do?)
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,306
He might be right already. Often the issue isn't one of the event happening but one of OSINTers being able to confirm it. Suriyakmaps has, in my opinion, a fairly high standard which means sometimes he can't confirm advances as happening, and he defaults to either increasing the grey area, or leaving it unchanged until he can get it confirmed. It makes his map more valuable as a conservative estimate of what's going on, on the ground, and since there is a general trend of Russian advances and Ukrainian retreats, it gives us a good picture of what we know Russia has captured.I've got this...
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.
and this...
I guess that in a couple of days or so, Kalibrated will be right.
The thing is... Ukraine's a large country. So another piece of this is that Russian advances are still relatively small in the overall scale of things. This lets many decisions be made in a context that's mostly political, and the military reality can be ignored, or misrepresented as whatever someone wants it to be. Decisions will likely be made differently if Russia forces start taking cities like Kharkov, Sumy, or even Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. I suspect this war is heading for a decision fork that will come towards the end of the Russian campaign for the Donbas. Russia will likely face a Ukraine that isn't ready to give up, isn't willing to sign any peace that involves recognizing any loss of territory, and isn't fully defeated by any reasonable definition. Western support for Ukraine will be low compared to earlier parts of the war, but not negligible, and continuous. Capturing Zaporozhye or Kherson will still be very unlikely goals at that point in time. What does Russia do then? My suspicion is that they will push into Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkov regions*. And they will likely declare some region or other to also be annexed or be targeted for annexation once enough territory is "liberated". The intent would be to force Ukraine to face increasingly worse prospects as the war continues.No Taurus for Kiev, from the horse's mouth.
En direct, guerre en Ukraine : l’Allemagne n’envisage toujours pas de livrer des missiles Taurus à l’Ukraine
Le ministre de la défense allemand, en visite à Kiev, a annoncé le prochain déblocage d’une enveloppe d’aide militaire supplémentaire de 1,9 milliard d’euros. Mais Berlin ne compte pas livrer ces missiles de longue portée réclamés depuis un certain temps par Kiev.
This is one little inconvenience of living on promises. (What does Zelenski have?, What can he do?)
The west will then renew their use of Hitler analogies, and will be faced with an unpleasant choice. You can try to twist Ukraine's arm to force them to give up territory and agree to Russian terms. This is what Russia would like the west to do. You can simply continue as is, and the war will continue, with steadily increasing Russian gains. Or you can increase aid to Ukraine and start crossing red lines of various sorts. There are other variations on this, including a change of leadership within Ukraine, or Russia (Putin is old, and Zelensky is increasingly unpopular). Ukraine could also start facing large scale collapses, that shift the direction of the war.
*Though it's possible they will instead stubbornly try to take Kherson or Zaporozhye instead, and this could give us another positional phase to the war.
Ukraine is also developing its own missiles so perhaps not so reliant on the German Taurus
united24media.com
armyrecognition.com
“Bigger Than ATACMS”: Ukraine’s Cutting-Edge Ballistic Missile Reportedly Enters Combat Use
Developed since May 2022, Ukraine's latest missile boasts advanced precision and power, marking a significant advancement in its defense capabilities.
united24media.com
New Ukrainian Ballistic Missile Threatens Russian Rear and Reduces Kyiv’s Reliance on Western Arms
New Ukrainian Ballistic Missile Threatens Russian Rear and Reduces Kyiv’s Reliance on Western Arms
armyrecognition.com
A couple of articles about what being wounded may mean ,certainly an exact number of amputees is still a state secret but liely a hard road ahead for these people
theins.ru
kyivinsider.com
russianlife.com
“A month later my prosthesis fell apart”: Russia's war veterans are much worse off than Israel's — and somewhat worse off than Ukraine's
The Russian Ministry of Defense has classified the number of its soldiers disabled during the “Special Military Operation” (SMO), but the count is all but certainly in the tens of thousands — and it continues to rise. The country’s healthcare system is overwhelmed: returning soldiers face...
theins.ru
Bucking the Economic Collapse, Sales of Prosthetic Limbs in Russia Continue to Break Records
While most sectors of Russia's economy have stalled or fallen out a window, one industry is charging ahead like a tank with no reverse gear: prosthetics
kyivinsider.com
Vets Face Prosthetic Delays, Uncertainty
The independent publication Verstka has published a report from a Moscow rehabilitation center for Russian military personnel.
rsemmes
Active Member
Yes, it is about to surpass German production of missiles (and US production too?).Ukraine is also developing its own missiles so perhaps not so reliant on the German Taurus
“Bigger Than ATACMS”: Ukraine’s Cutting-Edge Ballistic Missile Reportedly Enters Combat Use
Developed since May 2022, Ukraine's latest missile boasts advanced precision and power, marking a significant advancement in its defense capabilities.New Ukrainian Ballistic Missile Threatens Russian Rear and Reduces Kyiv’s Reliance on Western Arms
New Ukrainian Ballistic Missile Threatens Russian Rear and Reduces Kyiv’s Reliance on Western Arms
Not to mention all the intelligence data Ukraine is providing UK and France to use of those missiles.
Edit.
I guess the only important thing is when is Ukraine going to be launching the same number or more missiles than Russia. To achieve what exactly?
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Kerch bridge attack: A more detailed engineering analysis of the bridge construction and the results of the attack.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,312
Another interesting piece from Big Serge. There are two substantial parts that stand out for me, and I'll quote them below.
bigserge.substack.com
Trends often break, and this war has gone through several phases where things changed fairly drastically, so of course it's not set in stone. But right now the trajectory is firmly favorable to Russia. I suspect even the eventual exhaustion of Soviet stockpiles of armored vehicles won't change much about that. Producing an armored tractor with a gun is not that complicated. And the "assault sheds" that Russia currently employs to deliver troops in the face of Ukrainian drone threats aren't exactly state of the art technology. Only something major could break the direction of the war. The US turning on the spigot and handing over another 10-20 thousand armored vehicles/artillery pieces of all shapes and sizes would certainly change things. A steady supply of western PGMs of the long range strike variety would change things (not a few hundred here and there, thousands, over and over again, consistently). Though the first would probably matter more than the latter. A major injection of a foreign fighting force, be it a "foreign legion" nominally under Ukrainian auspices, or an actual foreign army. Regime change in Russia or Ukraine would do it. Another major war somewhere else that directly involves Russia (or Ukraine of course but frankly I don't see how it could). None of these things seem likely right now.
Russo-Ukrainian War: The Flaming Olive Branch
Russo-Ukrainian War: Summer 2025
I think this is a great insight. Russia is seeking to negotiate to achieve it's political objectives, but has 0 interest in a ceasefire for the exactly same reason that Ukraine, and some of their foreign backers, want a ceasefire. The ceasefire helps Ukraine. It's also the reason why Ukraine won't negotiate with Russia. They have nothing to negotiate with, no objectives they can realistically achieve by negotiations, other then accept a diplomatic settlement to what amounts to a defeat.
Commentators even here on defencetalk have expressed surprise that Russian morale recovered after '22, and that Russia clearly thinks they can win the war. This is a neat summary of why. The push on Artemovsk/Bakhmut was a messy one, but since ~June '23 this war has been one of steady if somewhat costly victories for Russia. At best it can be said that the victories aren't large enough to move the needle, and they're certainly not large enough to get Ukraine to surrender. But the trend line viewed over the last ~2 years is fairly clear. Ukraine's ability to fight is winding down, Russia's is ramping up. I suspect the second half of '25 will only confirm this trend.
Trends often break, and this war has gone through several phases where things changed fairly drastically, so of course it's not set in stone. But right now the trajectory is firmly favorable to Russia. I suspect even the eventual exhaustion of Soviet stockpiles of armored vehicles won't change much about that. Producing an armored tractor with a gun is not that complicated. And the "assault sheds" that Russia currently employs to deliver troops in the face of Ukrainian drone threats aren't exactly state of the art technology. Only something major could break the direction of the war. The US turning on the spigot and handing over another 10-20 thousand armored vehicles/artillery pieces of all shapes and sizes would certainly change things. A steady supply of western PGMs of the long range strike variety would change things (not a few hundred here and there, thousands, over and over again, consistently). Though the first would probably matter more than the latter. A major injection of a foreign fighting force, be it a "foreign legion" nominally under Ukrainian auspices, or an actual foreign army. Regime change in Russia or Ukraine would do it. Another major war somewhere else that directly involves Russia (or Ukraine of course but frankly I don't see how it could). None of these things seem likely right now.
rsemmes
Active Member
I am surprised that anyone could be surprised. Russia, the country that lost Moscow in 1812? The (Russia) USSR of 1941?
I don't read Russian newspaper, I don't know about "recovered", maybe in our Disney (Western) version of the event? The coup de main failed, but even Iraq kept fighting Iran for a very long time after the unsuccessful first round.
(It could be mentioned too, that the North took the War seriously after the First Manassas defeat.)
You have cited, as examples, two defensive wars where they (Russia) were invaded. This war is a war of aggression whey the Russians are invading another country.
Quite different situations.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,315
What the significance of this distinction? The Soviet Union was the aggressor in Afghanistan but they stuck around for a decade. This is a discussion of Russia's willingness to keep fighting and why they think they will win. It doesn't even necessarily mean it's true that they will win. But there are reasons for why they think this in regards to the current war, and they have a history of being willing to persevere through long wars. You seem to be falling back on a discussion of the justification of Russia's actions. That's not particularly relevant to this conversation. Even if Russia is completely unjustified, they may still be more than willing to fight this in the long run, for many years.
Reconquest of your own lands will often (usually) result in more effort to take them back as the injured party and the willingness usually lasts for generations .
Conquest of others, will often sap the willingness of your own people, just look how many aggressor wars have failed.
I'm not justifying anything, it's just an observation that countries and people will sacrifice more to take back their own than to conquer others.
I'm British, and where is the empire now? Long gone.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,317
Good point. I guess the question is - does Russia (and maybe more importantly - do Russians) view this as a reconquest of their own lands lost due to historic circumstances or an effort to conquer an "other"? On a very relevant note, I would also point to Soviet efforts against the basmachi in Central Asia in the '20s. I think a peasant stubbornness and a willingness to stick it out for a very long time are part of Russian mentality.
EDIT: An interesting piece on Avdeevka and Russian administration efforts in the town. A reminder, the town fell to Russian forces in Feb. of 2024 after heavy fighting for ~4 months. Most of the town was in ruins, and the area is still not too far from the front line. According to this article the 2023 population of Avdeevka was 1.6k. This isn't entirely illogical, Avdeevka was on the front lines since 2014, and 2023 is ~1-2 years into a major war with the town on the front lines. But it means that the Russian reports of ~1k remaining civilians after the town fell includes most of those who were there in 2023. This also isn't impossible, I guess, but it wasn't my guess of what was going on. Today the town reportedly has almost 700 people out of which 483 receive a government pension, meaning they're of retirement age. This mirrors the pattern of older parts of the population being more pro-Russian, and being less willing to leave. It also means that they're not nearly as dependent on job opportunities to live there. 170 of the population are listed as employed with allegedly 80 of them working in Avdeevka itself, though it's unclear what they're doing. The rest commute out to Yasinovataya. Most of the city services and businesses are operated on a schedule, with a drugstore open 3 days a week, a bank once a week, and a medical outservice provider visiting twice a week. The latter is likely more important than in a normal population due to the large number of older residents. The article also claims 15 "selling points" (i.e. stores?) open. In normal Russian parlance that would refer to a store but I don't believe a town of ~700 having 15 stores. Russia is also distributing 1 loaf of bread per resident per week and 36L of drinking water per month per resident, for free.
For residences, 49 private houses have power from a commercially provided generator, 54 private houses have been repaired after the fighting. I wonder if this is a single neighborhood that's been rebuilt, or spot repairs on the least damaged homes that are counted as "repaired". Two multistory apartment buildings were repaired recently, I posted about it earlier. What it didn't expand on earlier is that this isn't like Mariupol' where people whose houses were destroyed got new permanent housing. Instead this counts as temporary housing but with no time limits, for people whose homes are destroyed. The article talks about two people not living in rebuilt houses but instead living in the not-quite-collapsed homes that were damaged in the fighting.
The town is connected to the rest of Donetsk by a single bus line with a 2 hour drive time, despite the down being a de-facto suburb of Donetsk.
To me it's clear that real reconstruction efforts haven't even started. The article mentions the front lines being ~20kms away, which was true recently, but has changed with the current Russian push. There were statements made by Russian officialdom about a reconstruction of Donetsk as a result of recent Russian advances. I suspect that Avdeevka will be somewhere towards the tail end of that effort. Avdeevka is currently a "closed town". This status applies to most areas near the front line in Ukraine under Russian control. Only people with appropriate documents or with a local residence in their internal passport are able to get in. The article also notes that ~100 residents returned since 2024. I think that Russia can expect a substantial return of population relative to current numbers once they start large scale reconstruction and handing out of new-built homes. However I would be surprised if the population gets to the pre-war numbers any time soon, especially with the larger Donetsk so close geographically but inaccessible from a transportation standpoint. It is a little shocking to read that they still haven't clear the roads from Donetsk to Avdeevka.
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rsemmes
Active Member
I also cited two wars of invasion, even if not by such stubborn countries as Russia.