The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
@seaspear, a fresh article on the subject of long-range FPV drones:
"A heavy wire-drone as launching platform high over the front-line so all the wire length of the second drone is on enemy territory?"
As I posted, a logical development.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Ukrinform didn't report that because it was a failure. But not only an Ukrainian failure, also an American one. The American at least agreed and provided coordinates, if not actively participated in the preparation of the attack.
The bridge is a very large fixed construction. Why would the Ukrainians need coordinates? One sympathetic person on a ship sailing through the strait any time during or after building could have provided exact coordinates. Or a sympathetic person driving over the bridge after completion. Or they could just look at Google Earth.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Bob53 said:
on the other hand there are others that only post positive Ukrainian information and narrative.
I'm one of them. :)
KipPotapych said:
f you read the part of my post you quoted, I am arguing that the Americans must have known of the existence of the missiles, as opposed to “Surprise! We sank the biggest Russian ship all by ourselves with the missiles you had no idea we had!
Even better than that: The existence of the Neptune was of public notoriety long before the strike on the Moskva.
It was rather the inability of the Moskva to protect itself that surprised everyone. In fact it was a combined attack with drones and anti-ship missiles.
KipPotapych said:
The argument was that it is irrational to waste the equipment as they did (still do) because they fully, 100%, depend on the western supplies of that equipment.
It's irrational no matter is the case.

My counter argument is that for Ukrainians (and for Russians as well), it's not a waste. The equipment is delivered to be used to counter the Russian invasion. Not to stay in the rear to be preserved at any cost. Sometimes their decisions like invading Kursk may seems to you not logical, and then you think that what they lose there is a waste, but they have their own logic. And they don;t think that they have wasted anything. Of course Ukrainians can make mistakes. But it's difficult to judge from the outside. After all, equipment is destroyed by the enemy in the first place.

KipPotapych said:
Were they really needed though? It was the rocket-man who offered the troops, according to the Americans, Putin didn’t ask for them.
The key point is: though President Vladimir V. Putin quickly embraced it.
It still breached the barrier of the unthinkable.

KipPotapych said:
To hit a bridge with cluster munitions would be an even more asinine idea. Especially the bridge that is primarily used by civilians.
Cluster ammunition doesn't mean anti-personel ammunition, thought it's often the case. ATACMS cluster ammunitions are small bombs exploding on a wide area. We have seen several videos of them, one hitting an helicopter field. The explosion is able to dammage a bridge structure, thought several explosion are needed to collapse it.

"Primarily used by civilians": No such a thing in time of war. Every road or bridge are supposed to be used by the military, especially this one. Civilians can still use them at their own risk. The main crime is to fail to inform the public about the risk, for example by recommending not to travel neither by road or by boat to Crimea unless absolutely necessary. But the Russian media, instead, keep on saying that everything is all right as usual.

swerve said:
The bridge is a very large fixed construction. Why would the Ukrainians need coordinates?
Good point. But I mean, the American are able to deny the launch of the ATACMS if they disagree with the strike even when Ukrainians have the coordinates.

KipPotapych said:
That’s another “strange” part of the story. They say they knew it would not be successful, but let Ukraine proceed to prove the point.
I didn't say the Americans let the Ukrainians fail to prove the point. I said that the American also believed that it will be successful, IMO.

KipPotapych said:
In the Newsweek article, it is likely a typo - they probably meant to say “illegally”.
No: Newsweek quoted TASS Agency, whereas Kiyev Post quoted Ukrinform.

KipPotapych said:
Zaluzhny was fired in spite of him being against the direction chosen in 2023. He also was on record (quoted here by me) being against the Kursk offensive. Other officers have been dismissed (cited here by me) for their refusal to participate in or initiate the Kursk offensive. With my bias, which I fully accept, the article, combined with what I just wrote, makes it very clear that decisions are being made for political reasons and showtime.
The reason why he was dismissed is not clear. Certainly opposing the plan was one factor among others. Not the only one. I think that political ambitions was a more important factor, and at some point, the friction between the two men became unbearable. I think that Zaluhzny was also fed up.
The reason for dismissing other generals is not that they disagree with the Commander in Chief. But because they failed in their mission or because someone else is better for the job. The rest is speculation.

Zelensky or not Zelensky, a political leader who take utterly bad decisions in war time is not going to keep power. There is enough political opposition against Zelensky to rise the question of his legitimqcy if he would jeopardize the defence of Ukraine. Instead the opposition stands by Zelensky when his legitimacy is questioned by external leaders.

KipPotapych said:
But they also follow orders, which they don’t have to agree with.
A general would rather resign than following a devastatingly stupid order from a civilian. Several generals would also object to a bad order given to one of their colleague. And the order will not be fully obeyed.

KipPotapych said:
Trump can’t pledge anything. That’s not how things work in the US. Assuming he could, I don’t think be would. In my opinion, he is ready for Ukriane to drown and go away. I do not believe there will be some major help from the US going forward.
It depends on what Putin does. If Putin doesn't order a ceasefire, Trump will arm Ukraine to the teeth because he doesn't like to be contradicted.
However if Putin agrees to a ceasefire and his troops really stop firing, Ukrainians will be forced to stop fighting too. Then, in this case, Trump could drop economic, diplomatic and military aid to Ukraine, and renew good relations with his old friend Vladimir.
By all evidences, the friend Vladimir doesn't want to play this card.

I said:
But on the Russian side, the contrast is much more severe. A large part of new recruits are inapt to combat and sometimes to even carry a weapon.
You said:
This is rather funny because you are basically parroting the guy whose article I called “utter garbage” the other day.
This is confirmed by every single intervew of Ukrainian or foreign soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Also confirmed by indirect off-line informations from people on the front line.
I said:
So, IMO, the odds of seeing another counter offensive in 2025 is only 20%. But not zero.
You said:
Why not 15 or 25%?
Because I applied a very complex formula to reach this exact number. LOL :D :D

You said:
Today it is likely West + Ukraine - USA > Russia. An enormous change just like that.
West + Ukraine - USA is still several time Russia in militaro-imdustrial potential.
It's just that the European potential is not used.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The bridge is a very large fixed construction. Why would the Ukrainians need coordinates? One sympathetic person on a ship sailing through the strait any time during or after building could have provided exact coordinates. Or a sympathetic person driving over the bridge after completion. Or they could just look at Google Earth.
Basically, because it is not that simple? One example from the NYT article posted a coupe of pages ago:

Ukrainian intelligence had detected a makeshift Russian barracks at a school in occupied Makiivka. “Trust us on this,” General Zabrodskyi told General Aguto. The American did, and the Ukrainian recalled, “We did the full targeting process absolutely independently.” Wiesbaden’s role would be limited to providing coordinates.

Why would they need the coordinates if they (reportedly) can do everything else themselves? They could have simply used Google Earth to get the coordinates of a building that has been there for decades, most likely.

One would think that in order to bring a bridge like that down, it would have to be a cumulative attack, striking in certain rather precise places, in certain sequence, etc. Another option, of course, would be to send a truck loaded with explosives and by some random, extremely unlikely chance, have it explode exactly when passing several tank cars filled with 100,000-150,000 litres of flammable material each. In that scenario, a section of a bridge may actually be displaced, as we had actually witnessed, leaving the bridge intact and operating otherwise, for the most part.


It was rather the inability of the Moskva to protect itself that surprised everyone. In fact it was a combined attack with drones and anti-ship missiles.
All analysis that I read indicates that they didn't even have their defences operating at the time of strike.

The attack was always reported as two Neptune missiles. Never otherwise. Not sure where you get the combined attack from. The fact that that happened in April-May (?) of 2022 doesn’t help your argument since there were no “combined missile and drone attacks” back then.

The equipment is delivered to be used to counter the Russian invasion. Not to stay in the rear to be preserved at any cost.
This is my last comment on the subject because it is getting silly. If virtually everywhere else your returns on the use of the same equipment provide 2.7 or whatever it is (on average) destroyed Russian pieces of armour for each one of yours, you better use that equipment there (ie, anywhere else). Especially because there you would be defending your territory that you will likely never see back otherwise; that would be instead of losing likely up to 1.5 of your scarce armour for every one of the Russian units, while trying to hold territory where the writing was on the wall from the very beginning. That was predicted here at that time, if you go back and read through the posts.

The key point is: though President Vladimir V. Putin quickly embraced it.
It still breached the barrier of the unthinkable.
What was the unthinkable?

"Primarily used by civilians": No such a thing in time of war. Every road or bridge are supposed to be used by the military, especially this one. Civilians can still use them at their own risk.
I would argue that striking a busy bridge that is primarily used by civilians with ATACMS M39 Block I would be the main crime. Those aren’t even anti-armour munitions. You should find and watch the videos where these things fall on a paved roadway and observe the damage.

I didn't say the Americans let the Ukrainians fail to prove the point. I said that the American also believed that it will be successful, IMO.
I didn’t say you said. The article clearly says that the strike was allowed to prove the point:

The Ukrainians proposed attacking with ATACMS alone. Generals Cavoli and Aguto pushed back: ATACMS alone wouldn’t do the job; the Ukrainians should wait until the drones were ready or call off the strike.

In the end, the Americans stood down, and in mid-August, with Wiesbaden’s reluctant help, the Ukrainians fired a volley of ATACMS at the bridge. It did not come tumbling down; the strike left some “potholes,” which the Russians repaired, one American official grumbled, adding, “Sometimes they need to try and fail to see that we are right.”


That is not how things work in the real world - that is, you do not let Ukrainians use n number of missiles just to prove that the said missiles are ineffective for their purpose. I would think that this is crystal clear to everyone and why I said that this is another strange point of the article.

No: Newsweek quoted TASS Agency, whereas Kiyev Post quoted Ukrinform.
This is the original article that the Newsweek article quoted (RIA Novosti, not TASS, as clearly indicated in the article):


They call it “Crimean bridge” and “bridge over the Kerch Strait”. I have never seen it called otherwise in the Russian media space (and I never even read RIA or the like - gives you headache).

PS The other article was from Kiev Independent, not Kiev Post.

The reason for dismissing other generals is not that they disagree with the Commander in Chief. But because they failed in their mission or because someone else is better for the job. The rest is speculation.
They literally disagreed and said that Kursk invasion was a dumb idea that would result in great losses. They were replaced with others who didn’t say that. By the way, not all of them were generals.

There is enough political opposition against Zelensky to rise the question of his legitimqcy if he would jeopardize the defence of Ukraine.
Not true. Aside from Zaluzhny, there is no real opposition that has any significant weight within the Ukrainian society.

And the order will not be fully obeyed.
Which is why Ukrainian troops often withdraw from their position way before any order is given to do so (which often enough never comes at all).

It depends on what Putin does. If Putin doesn't order a ceasefire, Trump will arm Ukraine to the teeth because he doesn't like to be contradicted.
Trump alone cannot arm Ukraine. He can leave it with no arms, but he cannot provide any on a whim. That’s not how things work. Not sure what is so confusing about it.

Also, you talk like “he will do this and that” as if you have sources inside the administration or Trump’s head. Everything points to the fact that he wouldn’t do any of the things you think he would, even if he could.

This is confirmed by every single intervew of Ukrainian or foreign soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
This is not true because I personally previously posted evidence suggesting the exact opposite.

West + Ukraine - USA is still several time Russia in militaro-imdustrial potential.
It's just that the European potential is not used.
That’s right, over three years later the potential is not used. Half (and currently irreplaceable) the support was lost in days, really. There is no real indication that “the potential” is ever going to be used either. And so on. But one can keep betting on it, of course.

A couple of things on the subject:

IMG_9241.jpeg

IMG_9236.jpeg

IMG_9235.jpeg


I didn’t make the post I said I would. Maybe tomorrow.

Edit: also on the subject:

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
These constant miscalculations about the Russians basically cost them this war. Low morale, they won’t fight, Putin’s embarrassment that should lead to some irrational decisions, etc. We now have what we have. No war planning should ever be based on this. Especially when you had already clearly showed lack of understanding the first time. This “we know Russians, trust us” proposal is extremely dangerous. Which is rather funny because the Ukrainians follow the script to the tee quite often themselves.
To add to what I wrote ^, this is rather an excellent (with an exclamation mark!) take:

IMG_9296.jpeg

From: https://x.com/DrRadchenko/status/1908060055309598827
 
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