The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[personaldesas]

But the proposed sale is far too small to affect the price significantly.

Trump doing Trump things, I guess.

 

[KipPotapych]

But the proposed sale is far too small to affect the price significantly.

This is incorrect. See the following chart:



Even if the chart does not demonstrate the full picture (such as Sept 25 was already severely reduced export capacity from a normal ~1 mbpd), it clearly shows that Russia has significant leverage over diesel prices since 40% of the missing barrels originated in Russia. This is also misleading because the “exporters” such as Singapore, for example, are trading hubs, that additional Russian barrels go through. Here is Winston Churchill telling us that Russia can export up to ~308 kpbd today, removing up to 30% of September shortage (more today since we peaked in September):



Of course, he also tells us that this export would not have a significant effect on prices because math is hard and propaganda is strong, but any reasonable person can see the connection. Just like his plan to supply Europe with electricity.

If Russia restores it’s full capacity, Russia can fully cover today’s hole that is driving the prices up. Hence, the “deal” is significant in spite of proclamations by various parties that either lack the expertise and basic knowledge of the subject matter or are simply driving the narrative. Another example of the narrative:



Called Carney of all people. Not Trump, who announced the ceasefire, of course. But the results didn’t make themselves wait:



This is utterly false. We do not have spare capacity to increase our oil and diesel exports to the US. If we did, we would have already done so long ago. Also implies more tariffs since this would drive up the trade deficit with the US (currently exclusively caused by energy exports as it is -> I say we should not, even if we could for this and other reasons as well).

The only ways to reduce diesel prices today is to actually open Hormuz or let Russia restart the exports and restore full capacity (if we want the prices to really fall to or near pre-Hormuz levels). To note, we don’t need prices to fall to the pre-Hormuz level, so the full capacity does not to be restored. I mean we, as people do, of course, but the political goal is to create an illusion of falling price -> only to let Russia export at current or, better yet, slightly increased capacity. It follows that Ukraine can (and will) strike Russian refineries without upsetting the orange man as much as long as prices are falling.

 

[KipPotapych]

Re the attacks on Yandex and effects on internet services in Russia there seems to be speculation that bots aimed with political stirring in various countries may be curtailed ,may affect the the U.S ,hope we dont lose members here lol

This speculation is incorrect. It has been debunked by numerous people, but I will provide this particular example, a post by Ilya Lozovsky. Below, as well as the following post, is the copy-paste of the post (I broke it down into two parts before verifying whether it will fit here or not), none of the writing is mine.

Those viral claims about plummeting Russian ‘bot’ activity have no basis in fact

For two days, X has been deluged by claims of a sharp decline in Russian “bot” activity — supposedly a result of Ukrainian strikes on three Yandex data centers this week

These claims have been promoted by respected analysts, top politicians, and ordinary Ukraine supporters clearly eager for a win during a difficult week.

Unfortunately, they’re based on data that has been misunderstood or appears to be entirely made up:

• One chart from internet infrastructure company CloudFlare shows a decline in automated web traffic from Yandex. But this is a measure of things like search engine requests, not social media bots.
• Another chart purportedly shows a decline in activity related to Germany’s right-wing AfD party. But it contains obvious errors and is completely unsourced. My view is that it’s entirely fake.

I’ll go into more detail on both cases below. The bigger picture is that the “anti-Russian-influence” field remains vulnerable to large-scale misinformation fueled by motivated reasoning.

This isn’t the first time I’ve seen exaggerated claims about Russian influence go viral. But last night I was truly struck — really, almost radicalized — watching in real time as experts at the heights of their careers unquestioningly boosted emotionally satisfying narratives that were pretty much entirely wrong.

It’s tempting to ascribe this all to people’s ideological commitments, and I’m sure Ukraine’s enemies will waste no time pointing that out. But of course, this kind of thing permeates the right-wing information environment, too.

More illuminating, I think, is the lens of social psychology: People like to have their views confirmed, they like to cheer on their team, and they like to collect likes and retweets. And I don’t mean to descend into cynicism. Ukraine has had a particularly tragic few days, stabbed in the back by the Trump administration even as dozens of civilians were murdered by Russian drones and missiles. I understand that people are hurting and want to celebrate a win. That’s just human nature.

But it's hugely important for those of us who support Ukraine to practice good epistemic hygiene. If for no other reason than because Russian influence activity, both on- and offline, is absolutely a real, documented threat to the democratic world. I’ve done a good amount of reporting and editing on this topic: Consider the ‘Dear Compatriots’ project, this story on Russian interference in Moldova’s EU referendum, or this investigation into real Russian “cognitive strikes” against the West.

These threats are much harder to address when they’re lost in a cacophony of exaggeration. For example, the actual effects of the Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s walled-off digital infrastructure — as reported, for example,
here by @thebell_io — are real and important, and have been totally drowned out.

I'll note that the responsibility to cover this issue truthfully and accurately, and not just to engage in wishcasting, is especially incumbent on people in high-level positions with large platforms.

 

[KipPotapych]

Now, for the details on the specific claims:

CloudFlare



This chart from CloudFlare purportedly shows that Russian “bot activity” has dropped since the Ukrainian strikes. But that technically illiterate interpretation has been thoroughly debunked, initially in this thread by
@antibot4navalny, a widely cited group of Russian researchers. “Bots” here refers not to “automated social media accounts” but to any kind of automated requests made to web sites, such as the crawlers that do web searches. It stands to reason that these requests fell after the Yandex centers were struck.

AfD



Most virally of all, Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský shared this chart, allegedly showing that activity related to the right-wing German AfD party plummeted after the strikes. The implication is that it was all inauthentic Russian influence.

But the chart has a number of issues:

1. It was shared on October 11, but the second marked point appears to fall on a future date, around October 13. The “data” (the blue line) extends all the way to October 15.
2. It has obvious errors, like the bottom interval on the Y-axis being noticeably smaller than the rest. No chart creation software would do that, even if you were feeding it fake data. My assumption (which I can’t prove) is that this was AI-generated.
3. It’s completely unclear what it’s supposed to be measuring. The Y axis is labeled “Activity per day” — so what is that supposed to mean? 4,500 activity per day?
4. Most fundamentally: Any legitimate chart like this would be more professionally labeled and titled, and we would know who made it and what data it was based on. This doesn’t even have a logo. It doesn’t even say AfD on it!

I wrote Zdechovský to ask him about these issues, and where he got this chart. His spokesperson sent a quick and polite reply, but didn’t respond to the latter question. For transparency I’ll paste the entire response below.

Now, all of this doesn’t prove that nothing happened. What it shows is that there’s no proof that anything happened. It’s certainly possible that nefarious Russian bot activity really has been reduced. Tracking this kind of thing is very difficult, and I hope someone does a detailed and rigorous study soon. Until then, I think the widely-repeated anecdotal observations — “wow, social media seems so much nicer today!” — can be dismissed as wishful thinking.

Meanwhile, I'll go back to reading X and grinding my teeth.

Here is the response to my inquiry from Mr. Zdechovský’s spokesperson, reproduced in full. In light of the above, you can decide if you find it convincing:

"In my post, I explicitly used the phrase “If confirmed” to make it clear that the suggested connection was not yet an established fact, but rather an interesting finding that deserves further examination by data analysts. I certainly did not present it as a conclusively proven fact.

At this point, I do not have any additional data available. What we do know for certain is that, according to Cloudflare data, Yandex bot traffic dropped dramatically by 99.6%. Even President Zelenskyy has pointed out that there has been less anti-Ukrainian hate on social media. Is this a coincidence? It is difficult to say. Personally, however, I believe there is a connection.

Regarding your second question, I would like to point out one important inaccuracy. The graph does not actually end on October 15, as you suggest. That date is merely the final label on the horizontal axis, while the plotted data ends before that date. It is therefore incorrect to automatically assume that the graph contains data from the future.

I have been dealing with Russian disinformation operations and foreign interference for many years, including through my work in the European Parliament. Their existence has been extensively documented in numerous reports by European intelligence services and EU institutions. I strongly reject the notion that a single unverified graph should undermine the extensive evidence of Russian influence operations or the need to take decisive action against them.

This is precisely why I am preparing an appeal to the European Commission, urging it to address this issue seriously and decisively. If we continue to allow Russian bots to operate unchecked, we risk losing our democracy."

 

[KipPotapych]

Paste over, this is me writing. The propaganda has been particularly insane lately. I mean it is usually over 15 on the scale of 1 to 10, but these past few months and weeks in particular have been really, really intense. Another example from Bloomberg via the archive:

Russia had more than 50,000 casualties in Ukraine last month, with as many as 28,000 personnel killed — vastly more than losses by Ukrainian forces, according to a senior NATO military official.[…]

Ukrainian forces suffered about 5,000 casualties in the same period, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

November deadline (whatever that is) that was mentioned by Zelesnky, Biletsky, as well as others? Not sure, but things are crazy.


A little bit from the Comedy Central:

Stanimir is expecting the next collapse:



John Schindler, a serious professor, is remembering how Russians had slaughtered all that Polish political elite and everyone knows, but keeps it under the pillow:



Another infamous professor’ new hypothesis is that Ukraine, with proper European support, can defeat the newly formed Alliance of Russia, China, and the US (those epic Euros!):



Guardian journalists in a way support the hypothesis, wondering what Trump would do differently if he worked for Russia:



I wish there was space for more attachments (no, I am not going to make another post).

These are smart people, yet, here we are, at comedy central.

 

[Vanquish]

Now, for the details on the specific claims:

CloudFlare

View attachment 55780

This chart from CloudFlare purportedly shows that Russian “bot activity” has dropped since the Ukrainian strikes. But that technically illiterate interpretation has been thoroughly debunked, initially in this thread by
@antibot4navalny, a widely cited group of Russian researchers. “Bots” here refers not to “automated social media accounts” but to any kind of automated requests made to web sites, such as the crawlers that do web searches. It stands to reason that these requests fell after the Yandex centers were struck.

AfD

View attachment 55779

Most virally of all, Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský shared this chart, allegedly showing that activity related to the right-wing German AfD party plummeted after the strikes. The implication is that it was all inauthentic Russian influence.

But the chart has a number of issues:

1. It was shared on October 11, but the second marked point appears to fall on a future date, around October 13. The “data” (the blue line) extends all the way to October 15.
2. It has obvious errors, like the bottom interval on the Y-axis being noticeably smaller than the rest. No chart creation software would do that, even if you were feeding it fake data. My assumption (which I can’t prove) is that this was AI-generated.
3. It’s completely unclear what it’s supposed to be measuring. The Y axis is labeled “Activity per day” — so what is that supposed to mean? 4,500 activity per day?
4. Most fundamentally: Any legitimate chart like this would be more professionally labeled and titled, and we would know who made it and what data it was based on. This doesn’t even have a logo. It doesn’t even say AfD on it!

I wrote Zdechovský to ask him about these issues, and where he got this chart. His spokesperson sent a quick and polite reply, but didn’t respond to the latter question. For transparency I’ll paste the entire response below.

Now, all of this doesn’t prove that nothing happened. What it shows is that there’s no proof that anything happened. It’s certainly possible that nefarious Russian bot activity really has been reduced. Tracking this kind of thing is very difficult, and I hope someone does a detailed and rigorous study soon. Until then, I think the widely-repeated anecdotal observations — “wow, social media seems so much nicer today!” — can be dismissed as wishful thinking.

Meanwhile, I'll go back to reading X and grinding my teeth.

Here is the response to my inquiry from Mr. Zdechovský’s spokesperson, reproduced in full. In light of the above, you can decide if you find it convincing:

"In my post, I explicitly used the phrase “If confirmed” to make it clear that the suggested connection was not yet an established fact, but rather an interesting finding that deserves further examination by data analysts. I certainly did not present it as a conclusively proven fact.

At this point, I do not have any additional data available. What we do know for certain is that, according to Cloudflare data, Yandex bot traffic dropped dramatically by 99.6%. Even President Zelenskyy has pointed out that there has been less anti-Ukrainian hate on social media. Is this a coincidence? It is difficult to say. Personally, however, I believe there is a connection.

Regarding your second question, I would like to point out one important inaccuracy. The graph does not actually end on October 15, as you suggest. That date is merely the final label on the horizontal axis, while the plotted data ends before that date. It is therefore incorrect to automatically assume that the graph contains data from the future.

I have been dealing with Russian disinformation operations and foreign interference for many years, including through my work in the European Parliament. Their existence has been extensively documented in numerous reports by European intelligence services and EU institutions. I strongly reject the notion that a single unverified graph should undermine the extensive evidence of Russian influence operations or the need to take decisive action against them.

This is precisely why I am preparing an appeal to the European Commission, urging it to address this issue seriously and decisively. If we continue to allow Russian bots to operate unchecked, we risk losing our democracy."

This chart from CloudFlare purportedly shows that Russian “bot activity” has dropped since the Ukrainian strikes. But that technically illiterate interpretation has been thoroughly debunked, initially in this thread by
@antibot4navalny, a widely cited group of Russian researchers. Hard to tell if the rest of your post is Ai or a Russian Blog.

I have no idea if Ukraine striking Yandex centers has affected Russian troll farms. First you'd have to believe there are Russian troll farms. I guess that answer will be what you want it to be. I'll go with striking Yandex centers by Ukraine as a good thing.

 

[KipPotapych]

Ok, I will make another post, but not the comedy related stuff. This one I was going to post yesterday, when the “excitement” broke out because it sums it up perfectly (Philippe is often on point):



Now this one, from the former minister of FA of Lithuania and a member of the EP, is interesting.



He has been increasing his rhetoric for a while and is now suggesting that we (or at least “Europe” should go to war with Russia (over Ukraine) if Russia does not accept some future peace plan proposed by Europe. I have a better idea: if all these people propping up these ideas and are ready to sacrifice others signed up to fight in Ukraine themselves, there would be no manpower shortages in the UA ranks and things would go a lot better for Ukraine. The UA forces would be an order of magnitude bigger than what Russians currently have.

On the subject of what Russians currently have, according to Germans (maybe @kato can comment here on the General cited?):

According to Bundeswehr General Christian Freuding, the Russian armed forces have grown to 1.5 million soldiers. They are quantitatively and qualitatively superior to Ukraine.

His opinion is also that if the Russians attack is to happen, it is to take place at the end of this war, not after (which actually makes more sense, in my opinion, but I still do not see it happening).

In German: Freuding: Moskau hat Ziel von 1,5 Millionen Soldaten erreicht

 

[KipPotapych]

This chart from CloudFlare purportedly shows that Russian “bot activity” has dropped since the Ukrainian strikes. But that technically illiterate interpretation has been thoroughly debunked, initially in this thread by
@antibot4navalny, a widely cited group of Russian researchers. Hard to tell if the rest of your post is Ai or a Russian Blog.

Yes, sure, the bells are ringing because of, zomg, “Russian”. The author of the post cited was also born in Moscow.

I have no idea if Ukraine striking Yandex centers has affected Russian troll farms. First you'd have to believe there are Russian troll farms. I guess that answer will be what you want it to be. I'll go with striking Yandex centers by Ukraine as a good thing.

Sure, but this is not what the conversation is about.

Whether it is good or not (and for whom), time will tell.

Edit: @Vanquish, I will actually change my post here: why is it a good thing?

 

[Vanquish]

Yes, sure, the bells are ringing because of, zomg, “Russian”. The author of the post cited was also born in Moscow.


Sure, but this is not what the conversation is about.

Whether it is good or not (and for whom), time will tell.

Well maybe just post the Coles Notes then instead of the rest of the diatribe.

 

[KipPotapych]

Well maybe just post the Coles Notes then instead of the rest of the diatribe.

Already answered that earlier:

If you do not read, I cannot help you with that.

Also, seaspear’s post I replied to is short, not hard to get the theme. If you want Cole Notes, see Philippe’s post I cited above. Can’t get shorter than that.

Also, maybe you missed it because I edited the post: why is it a good thing?

 

[Vanquish]

Already answered that earlier:



Also, seaspear’s post I replied to is short, not hard to get the theme. If you want Cole Notes, see Philippe’s post I cited above. Can’t get shorter than that.

Also, maybe you missed it because I edited the post: why is it a good thing?

I would say what becomes difficult with your posts is, speaking for myself, I just see alot of blah blah blah. Your posts just ramble on and on and never seem to quite get to any point. But don't worry you'll come back to that when you have more time,lol. Your posts contain alot of attachments that you seem to contend justify whatever Russian point of view your arguing in favour of. As I've mentioned on several occasions you're certainly entitlled to your position, but for the sake of readabillity perhaps actually getting to the point might actually help you make your point.

As to Ukraine strikes on Yandex, I do believe there are Russian bot farms. If Ukraine striking them affects the messaging that other regions see or lack there of, so much the better. If Ukraine and Russia agree to an energy cease fire we all know both parties will just move onto something else to blow up. Ukraine is at Yandex for the moment, Russia will certainly have no problem blowing up something else that suits them as well.

 

[KipPotapych]

I would say what becomes difficult with your posts is, speaking for myself, I just see alot of blah blah blah. Your posts just ramble on and on and never seem to quite get to any point. But don't worry you'll come back to that when you have more time,lol. Your posts contain alot of attachments that you seem to contend justify whatever Russian point of view your arguing in favour of. As I've mentioned on several occasions you're certainly entitlled to your position, but for the sake of readabillity perhaps actually getting to the point might actually help you make your point.

Never thought the point I make is hard to read. So, if you don’t know what my point is, how can you conclude that the point is Russian? And if the point is normally hard to read, there is certainly a lot of unsubstantiated accusations of spreading Russian propaganda then, no?

Is there a lot I say I would come to and don’t (I know there is some, no doubt)? For example, the most recent instance, the diesel deal, I came back and made my point (though not as extensively as I wanted to, but you already think it is too much to read and is confusing)?

As to Ukraine strikes on Yandex, I do believe there are Russian bot farms. If Ukraine striking them affects the messaging that other regions see or lack there of, so much the better. If Ukraine and Russia agree to an energy cease fire we all know both parties will just move onto something else to blow up. Ukraine is at Yandex for the moment, Russia will certainly have no problem blowing up something else that suits them as well.

So you didn’t read my posts or completely ignored them (the ones I didn’t write, but copied and pasted, as described), or the Cole Note thing?

Here is a Cole Note: Russian “troll farms” do not have the infrastructure like or operate from Yandex data centres. To think that they do is being poorly informed.

Another Cole Note: There is no energy ceasefire and Russia will not agree to one because this is their biggest leverage in the coming months. They will/may strike additional targets - that is, “something else that suits them” - along with critical infrastructure.

But, or course, as you said, we are all entitled to our opinions, informed or otherwise, right or wrong (this last part concerns us all).

Ta-da.

PS I have to go install this new hardware Yandex/RU guberment had sent me (express!) because their servers are not available, but I have to keep this going or the line on some graph on the internet will fall even further down. The orders are to prevent it from happening.

 

[personaldesas]

Russia can export up to ~308 kpbd today, removing up to 30% of September shortage

The statement you cite says 300,000 - 500,000 tonnes per month. That is 75,000 - 124,000 barrels per day, not 308,000. Against your chart’s 1.015-million-barrel decline, that replaces 7–12%, not 30%.

So if one believes Zelensky’s numbers and the chart’s figures at face value, the export gap falls from ~22% to ~20%, assuming all those barrels are additional.

If Russia restores it’s full capacity, Russia can fully cover today’s hole that is driving the prices up.

The announced exports and a hypothetical restoration of full capacity are very different quantities. Your chart also measures a decline in seaborne exports, not today’s supply-demand deficit. Sanctions relief does not repair damaged refineries. And redirecting diesel from another buyer to America adds no global supply.

Russian export losses have contributed to higher prices, and additional exports could help. But that does not establish the size of this deal’s effect.

 

[kato]

His opinion is also that if the Russians attack is to happen, it is to take place at the end of this war, not after (which actually makes more sense, in my opinion, but I still do not see it happening).

Nah, he states that (in his opinion) a Russian attack on NATO territory
"would not just be plausible after the Ukraine War, but instead also (as a means) to end the Ukraine War".

GenLt Christian Freuding is the Inspector General of the German Army (i.e. the top commander of German Land Forces) since October 2025. By military command chain there's only two people above him.

He was previously
- adjutant to then Minister of Defense and now EU Commission Head Ursula von der Leyen between 2014 and 2019
- from 2022 to 2025 led the "Situation Center Ukraine" of the German Ministry of Defense (fielded as a coordination center after the war started)
- from 2023 to 2025 additionally led the planning and command staff within the Ministry.

 

[personaldesas]

Nah, he states that (in his opinion) a Russian attack on NATO territory
"would not just be plausible after the Ukraine War, but instead also (as a means) to end the Ukraine War".

GenLt Christian Freuding is the Inspector General of the German Army (i.e. the top commander of German Land Forces) since October 2025. By military command chain there's only two people above him.

He was previously
- adjutant to then Minister of Defense and now EU Commission Head Ursula von der Leyen between 2014 and 2019
- from 2022 to 2025 led the "Situation Center Ukraine" of the German Ministry of Defense (fielded as a coordination center after the war started)
- from 2023 to 2025 additionally led the planning and command staff within the Ministry.

I agree


Original:

Und für mich ist es daher durchaus plausibel, wenn wissenschaftlich diskutiert wird, dass ein Angriff gegen Nato-Territorium denkbar ist, nicht nach Beendigung eines Ukraine-Krieges, sondern zur Beendigung des Krieges in der Ukraine

My translation

Therefore, to me it seems quite plausible, as discussed in scholarly debate, that an attack on NATO territory is conceivable, not after the conclusion of the Ukraine-war, but to conclude the war in Ukraine.

The sentence is a bit awkward in German too, so it’s not just my translation.