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I'll try for another update this weekend, meanwhile nothing particularly dramatic has happened. Russia continues to inch forward east of the Oskol near Kupyansk, towards the canal east of Slavyansk, deeper into Konstantinovka, north-west of Pokrovsk, and west-ward in eastern Zaporozhye. Ukraine is counter-attacking with some success around Krasniy Liman, in the border area north of Kupyansk, and with considerable success around Stepnogorsk. Russian net gains continue but still at a substantially slower pace than '25 or even the second half of '24. It remains to be seen if these battles lead to any Ukrainian collapses, that would give Russia territorial gains that could off-set current slower pace advances, or if Russia's net annual gains will slow down for the first time since '23.
In general territory remains a secondary factor, with this being a war of attrition,and changes in the nature of the fighting can change territorial patterns without a direct connection to the attrition rate. Unfortunately this doesn't help us see which way things are going. Again I think the macro trends haven't fundamentally shifted, so in principle we're still headed in the same direction. Though on the diplomacy front things have changed. It appears previous efforts at diplomacy, pushing off from the meeting in Anchoridge, are effectively done. Russia is openly stating they intend to reconsider the terms they intend to offer Ukraine, likely hardening them. Ukraine meanwhile has openly rejected giving up any territory as part of a peace settlement.
In general territory remains a secondary factor, with this being a war of attrition,and changes in the nature of the fighting can change territorial patterns without a direct connection to the attrition rate. Unfortunately this doesn't help us see which way things are going. Again I think the macro trends haven't fundamentally shifted, so in principle we're still headed in the same direction. Though on the diplomacy front things have changed. It appears previous efforts at diplomacy, pushing off from the meeting in Anchoridge, are effectively done. Russia is openly stating they intend to reconsider the terms they intend to offer Ukraine, likely hardening them. Ukraine meanwhile has openly rejected giving up any territory as part of a peace settlement.