Beltrami2005
Member
Well but it is happening. Ukraine is armed to the teeth and fights fabolous. I have great respect for them.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
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I think it has been discussed a little bit, and I would agree. This was a big loss for Russia, yet another reason why going in was a bad idea. That having been said, the split is real even within Ukraine. There is still a pro-Russian minority. But it's smaller than it was, more isolated, and with no chance of ever taking center stage politically, at least within the forseeable future. On the flip side, the same problem exists for Ukraine with regards to the Donbas. There are quite a few people there who also hate Ukraine now.
Lastly, on the question of "holding Ukraine", I don't think anyone here thinks Russia will conquer all or even most of Ukraine. In the areas Russia will conquer a demographic shift is already in progress, and it's something I've talked about in other posts, including relatively recently. You'll notice, despite what you write, that there isn't much of a guerilla resistance campaign in occupied areas, even ones that were clearly not pro-Russian in any meaningful way. Places like Energodar, Melitopol', and other parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson region. I think Russia will be able to hold what they conquer, assuming they can get a political settlement to end the war with them in possession of the territory. There will likely be some sort of right to return discussion after the war, and Russia will probably try to impose a state of affairs where people who don't want to live under Russia will be discouraged from coming back.
I actually agree with the point about the bad blood now between Russians and Ukrainians it's the reason strategicly this is a loss for Russia either way. And the true tragedy of this war.
I think when this is over there is also going to be no small anger in Ukraine towards the west. It's almost inconceivable that there won't be a feeling of betrayal by Ukrainians if this ends badly for them. I also have a sneaking suspicion that post Ukraine reconstruction is going to be mostly a Russian responsibility, it's not hard to see the e.u not investing in Ukraine once Ukraine stops fighting Russia especially as Russian is the country with the greatest desire for stability in the region
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As I've said I don't think anyone questions or doubts the Ukrainian or for that fact Russians ability to fight. Both sides have proven to be resourceful, determined, stubborn and courageous in combat. Frankly there exactly they the type of forces you wouldn't want to run into. As for the current state of Ukraine military capabilities yes our are correct but this is entirely about the state of them after the war. For the situation to remain would imop require a military victory over Russia as it's doubtful a economic or diplomatic one is likely to come before the question is settled on the battlefield.
Unfortunately for Ukraine a war of attrition is not in there favour long term as stated t Russian army is also a incredibly hard army to defeat. And in terms of manpower the are for all intents on there own. In terms of material they are also at a disadvantage in terms of capabilities and mass. These are significant and growing probloms as the form of warfare is attritional. Tho that itself is actually a reflection of the strength of Ukraine in that a rapid and decisive blow was tried and deemed unachievable.