The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update on Zaporozhye.

There basically hasn't been any significant movement. After failed Ukrainian attacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge, the fighting is mostly back and forth around Pyatihatka. The latest info has Russia counter-attacking again into the village.

Рыбарь

Ореховский участок обстановка по состоянию на 15.00 21 июня 2023 года Сегодня утром российские военнослужащие начали контратаку из села Жеребянки с целью отбить позиции у Пятихаток. В завязавшемся бою при поддержке артиллерии формирования 128 огшбр ВСУ были выбиты из населенного пункта. Сейчас...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/21/20230621151854-c2cb3e0b.jpg

Assorted footage from the fighting around Pyatihatka.

Colonelcassad

Работа по ВСУ в Пятихатках. Нарезка последних дней.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Vremyevskiy bulge, we saw the Ukrainian T-72B3 run over a friendly MRAP due to panic after getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Here's the results up close.

Moscow calling

Трофейный Т-72Б3, наехавший на MRAP MaxxPro после прилёта в него БПЛА типа "Ланцет" и начавшейся после этого суеты. Времеевский выступ, Донецкое направление.

t.me

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vk.com

2 Husky TSVs destroyed near Novodonetskoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

Husky TSV - уничтожена Западнее пгт. Новодонецкое в Великоновоселовском районе Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.756860, 36.953835) Выведена из строя артиллерией ОБТФ ДНР Каскад. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Эксклюзив канала: Военкор Андрей Камыжикин Источник ; №2 ID LostArmour

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Husky TSV - уничтожена В Юго-западной части пгт. Новодонецкое Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.752081, 36.955335) Подбита артиллеристами ОБТФ ДНР Каскад. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Эксклюзив канала: IZ.RU Источник ; №2

t.me

More footage of the captured Oshkosh near Novodonetskoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

Oshkosh M-ATV - трофей Взят в Юго-западной части пгт. Новодонецкое Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.751942, 36.955640) Достался бойцам 40-й ОБрМП в хорошем состоянии. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Эксклюзив канала: ТРУШНЫЙ Источник ; №2

t.me

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vk.com

A destroyed Mastiff MRAP near Novodonetskoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

Mastiff PPV - трофей В Новодонецком Донецкой области. Геопривязка: (47.752870, 36.962180) Подбитый артиллеристами ОБТФ ДНР «Каскад» MRAP. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Источник

t.me

The same destroyed Samaritan MEDEVAC we saw above.

Рубрика от Ледка

На TG-канале публикуется техника, потерянная вооруженными силами Украины в зоне проведения СВО. Карта, аналитика и графики потерь: https://clck.ru/3AhtVB Присылайте ваши материалы в бот: @RL_feedback_bot Поддержать: https://boosty.to/rubric_lossesvsu/

t.me

A destroyed Oshkosh, 3 other armored vehicles, and a T-64BV. Location and context unclear.

Dambiev

Уничтоженная воинами-забайкальцами на Запорожском направлении бронетехника украинской армии (четыре бронеавтомобиля и один танк Т-64БВ). Помочь воинам-забайкальцам можно по этой ссылке.

t.me

A Ukrainian MBT getting destroyed, Zaporozhye area. Can't tell if T-72 or T-64. In recent days we've seen the Leo-2s get replaced by a mix of T-64s and T-72s, likely with different units getting rotated in.

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Colonelcassad

Уничтожение еще одного украинского танка Т-64 на Запорожском направлении. Ушел детонацией БК.

t.me

Ukrainian MRAP getting hit in Zaporozhye area. Allegedly Russia's 127th MRD at work.

Colonelcassad

Поражение МРАПа противника на Запорожском направлении в полосе действия нашей 127-й дивизии. https://t.me/Vmsd127/65

t.me

More of Russian Ka-52s at work.

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[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1671466679576961024

Supposedly a picture from a UKR soldier, of that Leo2/Bradley mashup happening 10 days or so ago. If true, seems to indicate some of those vehicles might be recoverable.

Look closer. Some of those vehicles are in fact gone. Either hauled away by Russia or more likely by Ukraine.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians have attacked the Chongmar and other bridges that connect Crimea with Ukraine. The Russian Occupation Governor for Crimea claims that the missiles were Storm Shadow, but if two or more Storm Shadow missiles hit that bridge, it would have a far bigger hole in it, just saying.

The Drive situation report dated 21/7/23.

• Prigozhin is still pataking in his favorite sport; attacking the Russian military.
• National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksiy Danilov urged Russians living in Crimea to flee. She told them to make good use of the Kerch Bridge before it's to late.
• Apparently fortifications are being built between the border with mainland Ukraine and the logistical hub in Jankoi in the north of Crimea.
• A VMF floating dock has sunk in Sevastopol. No indications about the cause of the sinking, but H I Sutton notes that a floating dock containing a submarine sunk there four years ago.
• UKR partisans have blown up railway tracks in the port of Fedosia, Crimea.
• The Russians claim that three UKR drones were downed near Moscow.

My usual Ukrainian report which has a different account of the Zarporizhzhia front. It's contrary to the Rybar claims posted by Feanor above.

Video from inside the UKR trenches.

Video discussion with the Tank Museum at Bonnington, UK, about the various tanks being used in the Russo Ukrainian War. It is quite informative.
NATO Tanks Special: Inside the vehicles fighting Putin on the Frontline | @thetankmuseum

UK Forces News on western training of UKR forces.
Ukraine's counter-offensive an 'acid test' of its Western training

 

[Feanor]

The Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians have attacked the Chongmar and other bridges that connect Crimea with Ukraine. The Russian Occupation Governor for Crimea claims that the missiles were Storm Shadow, but if two or more Storm Shadow missiles hit that bridge, it would have a far bigger hole in it, just saying.
View attachment 50600

It's no claim. Ukraine definitely hit the bridge. We even have video of the alleged moment of impact. The Russian liberation governor of Kherson region came for a visit. The intent is undoubtedly to canalize Russian logistics and make them easier to strike, as well more difficult for Russia to resupply. Whether this plays out or not remains to be seen. At the end of the day, with a wide strip of land from the Russian border to Kherson region, Russia can in principle supply through the land route just fine. Since the truck explosion on the Crimean bridge there are reportedly no more trucks being used on that bridge.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Ночью противник обстрелял Чонгарский мост на границе с Крымом. Повреждено дорожное покрытие.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Глава Херсонской области Владимир Сальдо прибыл на Чонгарский мост и осмотрел повреждения дорожного покрытия и одного из пролетов.

t.me

Обстрел Чонгарского моста

Противник утром обстрелял Чонгарский мост на границе с Крымом. Обстрел велся британскими крылатами ракетами. Повреждение получил один из пролетов.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

In other news Russia may have finally struck an M-270 MLRS (possibly the MARS-2 variant). This is near Orekhov. It's a reminder that all equipment no matter how good or how far from the front line can be hit. On the flip side the survivability of Ukrainian HIMARS and M-270s has been outstanding. Ukraine has done a good job of firing and relocating, and keeping the systems hidden. Clearly Russia has problems striking maneuvering targets that far behind enemy lines. In this case it may have gotten too close to the front line.

EDIT: It appears to be an IMR-2 engineer vehicle on MBT chassis. See 3rd link.

Colonelcassad

На фотосессии уничтоженной техники НАТО под Ореховым обнаружилась уничтоженная/поврежденная немецкая РСЗО MARS-II.

t.me

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vk.com

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And lastly it appears the Russian offensive on the Oskol front is a reality, the earlier reports were correct. Russia appears to be attacking in two unconnected efforts. One is a push out of Kremennaya, north of Seversk. Given that it's coupled with renewed Russian front attacks at Belogorovka it's likely the eventual target of this effort is Seversk. The other is a continuing Russian expansion of their area of control north of Kupyansk. The obvious target there is Kupyansk itself. These efforts aren't particularly massive and could be intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from Zaporozhye. They could also be opportunistic gains as Ukraine is focused elsewhere. Lastly the Russian leadership may have concluded that Ukraine's effort in Zaporozhye is a failure and it's time for Russia to go on the offensive. If the 3rd option is true, I suspect Russian leadership is sorely mistaken. Ukraine's offensive in the south is far from over.

Рыбарь

❗️ Северское направление обстановка по состоянию на 15.00 22 июня 2023 года Подразделения воздушно-десантных войск продолжают зачистку опорных пунктов ВСУ в Серебрянском лесничестве. За два дня боёв десантникам удалось занять несколько позиций противника и продвинуться вглубь лесного массива...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/22/20230622145652-2b6d3b5f.jpg

Портфель Генштаба

Российская армия продолжает наступление на купянском направлении. Идет зачистка лесного массива и продвижение к н.п. Голубовка и Синьковка.

t.me

EDIT: It appears Russian air defenses were in action at the Chogar bridge, and some sources claim Russia intercepted 3 of the 6 inbounds, but of course failed to actually protect the bridge. We have a video from the inside of a Pantsyr with a failed intercept attempt.

Moscow calling

Тот же прилёт Storm Shadow по мосту в Чонгаре, но глазами расчета ЗПРК "Панцирь-С1". Судя по всему, попытка перехвата была неудачной...

t.me

Moscow calling

Прилёт Storm Shadow по мосту в Чонгаре. P. S. За вотерки извиняюсь, если у кого есть видео без этого непотребства - шлите в бот.

t.me

 

[ngatimozart]

It's no claim. Ukraine definitely hit the bridge. We even have video of the alleged moment of impact. The Russian liberation governor of Kherson region came for a visit. The intent is undoubtedly to canalize Russian logistics and make them easier to strike, as well more difficult for Russia to resupply. Whether this plays out or not remains to be seen. At the end of the day, with a wide strip of land from the Russian border to Kherson region, Russia can in principle supply through the land route just fine. Since the truck explosion on the Crimean bridge there are reportedly no more trucks being used on that bridge.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Ночью противник обстрелял Чонгарский мост на границе с Крымом. Повреждено дорожное покрытие.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Глава Херсонской области Владимир Сальдо прибыл на Чонгарский мост и осмотрел повреждения дорожного покрытия и одного из пролетов.

t.me

Обстрел Чонгарского моста

Противник утром обстрелял Чонгарский мост на границе с Крымом. Обстрел велся британскими крылатами ракетами. Повреждение получил один из пролетов.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

In other news Russia may have finally struck an M-270 MLRS (possibly the MARS-2 variant). This is near Orekhov. It's a reminder that all equipment no matter how good or how far from the front line can be hit. On the flip side the survivability of Ukrainian HIMARS and M-270s has been outstanding. Ukraine has done a good job of firing and relocating, and keeping the systems hidden. Clearly Russia has problems striking maneuvering targets that far behind enemy lines. In this case it may have gotten too close to the front line.

EDIT: It appears to be an IMR-2 engineer vehicle on MBT chassis. See 3rd link.

Colonelcassad

На фотосессии уничтоженной техники НАТО под Ореховым обнаружилась уничтоженная/поврежденная немецкая РСЗО MARS-II.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

And lastly it appears the Russian offensive on the Oskol front is a reality, the earlier reports were correct. Russia appears to be attacking in two unconnected efforts. One is a push out of Kremennaya, north of Seversk. Given that it's coupled with renewed Russian front attacks at Belogorovka it's likely the eventual target of this effort is Seversk. The other is a continuing Russian expansion of their area of control north of Kupyansk. The obvious target there is Kupyansk itself. These efforts aren't particularly massive and could be intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from Zaporozhye. They could also be opportunistic gains as Ukraine is focused elsewhere. Lastly the Russian leadership may have concluded that Ukraine's effort in Zaporozhye is a failure and it's time for Russia to go on the offensive. If the 3rd option is true, I suspect Russian leadership is sorely mistaken. Ukraine's offensive in the south is far from over.

Рыбарь

❗️ Северское направление обстановка по состоянию на 15.00 22 июня 2023 года Подразделения воздушно-десантных войск продолжают зачистку опорных пунктов ВСУ в Серебрянском лесничестве. За два дня боёв десантникам удалось занять несколько позиций противника и продвинуться вглубь лесного массива...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/22/20230622145652-2b6d3b5f.jpg

Портфель Генштаба

Российская армия продолжает наступление на купянском направлении. Идет зачистка лесного массива и продвижение к н.п. Голубовка и Синьковка.

t.me

EDIT: It appears Russian air defenses were in action at the Chogar bridge, and some sources claim Russia intercepted 3 of the 6 inbounds, but of course failed to actually protect the bridge. We have a video from the inside of a Pantsyr with a failed intercept attempt.

Moscow calling

Тот же прилёт Storm Shadow по мосту в Чонгаре, но глазами расчета ЗПРК "Панцирь-С1". Судя по всему, попытка перехвата была неудачной...

t.me

Moscow calling

Прилёт Storm Shadow по мосту в Чонгаре. P. S. За вотерки извиняюсь, если у кого есть видео без этого непотребства - шлите в бот.

t.me

The Ukrainians apparently haven't committed the bulk of their forces to the Zaporozhye front. Various accounts I have seen believe that only 1/3rd of Ukrainian forces destined as part of their counter offensive, have so far been involved. They believe that Ukraine is still battlefield shaping and probing for weak points in the Russian defensive line. Time will tell.

 

[Feanor]

The Ukrainians apparently haven't committed the bulk of their forces to the Zaporozhye front. Various accounts I have seen believe that only 1/3rd of Ukrainian forces destined as part of their counter offensive, have so far been involved. They believe that Ukraine is still battlefield shaping and probing for weak points in the Russian defensive line. Time will tell.

It might be less then 1/3rd. We mostly see company tactical groups trying to breach the minefield with support assets, and platoon-sized recon elements trying to find ways through or around. So while the casualties are nasty, Ukraine can keep doing this for quite a while. The question in my mind is still the same. Can Russia keep doing this? Modern ATGMs and attack helos are scarce currently. Artillery is better but much of it isn't the good 152mm howitzer variety but instead MT-12s or T-55s/62s repurposed for indirect fire. Loitering munitions are also a scarce resource. FPV drones less so, but still not unlimited. Ukraine is burning through manpower and equipment doing this, but Russia is burning through PGM stocks.

EDIT: On the subject of Ukrainian shaping.

Here's a list of recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics choke points.

Moscow calling

Западные OSTNTеры наложили на карту все крайние удары ВСУ по коммуникациям и логистике ВС РФ. Железная дорога в городе Акимовка, железнодорожная станция "Партизаны" и склады в Рыково, база в Геническе, мост через Чонгарский пролив и базы Бердянске - вот список недавних целей украинских ракет...

t.me

And we have a pontoon bridge apparently almost immediately after the Ukrainian strike on the Chongar bridge. This remind us of the situation with the Antonov bridge but with a significant difference. This one isn't in artillery range.

Moscow calling

Чонгарский мост, или Антоновский мост 2.0. Как и в случае с ударами по Антоновскому мосту, инженерные войска РФ достаточно оперативно возвели понтонную переправу. Станет ли она целью для следующего удара ВСУ? Будем посмотреть...

t.me

 

[vikingatespam]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672238121809747969

Looks like the RU put a pontoon bridge in near Chonhar very quickly. This suggests a great deal of sensitivity to this crossing.

 

[Feanor]

Oskol Front.

It appears Russia is trying to take Belogorovka, from the north and the east. In the Kremennaya woods, Russian VDV are inching towards the river, while Russian forces dead east are pushing to take some significant heights in the area. Further north Russian forces are also pushing on Zarechnoye and Torskoe. Again it seems likely the ultimate target is Seversk, but it remains to be seen whether the stalemate that's dominated this axis can be broken. It's possible the attacks from the east are a fixing effort, while the push from the north will attempt to cut the supply lines through Grigoryevka.

Рыбарь

❗️ Северское направление обстановка по состоянию на 17.00 23 июня 2023 года Подразделения воздушно-десантных войск России продолжают зачистку украинских позиций в Серебрянском лесничестве. Бои идут за каждый метр, так как украинские артиллеристы и минометчики ведут массированный огонь по бойцам...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/23/20230623165841-8e9dd167.jpg

 

[vikingatespam]

Artillery is better but much of it isn't the good 152mm howitzer variety but instead MT-12s or T-55s/62s repurposed for indirect fire. Loitering munitions are also a scarce resource.

Do we have any hard data on the type of artillery pieces of RU in this area ? I would be delighted to know if they are forced to use the field expedients instead of dedicated pieces.

 

[Feanor]

Do we have any hard data on the type of artillery pieces of RU in this area ? I would be delighted to know if they are forced to use the field expedients instead of dedicated pieces.

Hard data? Very little. We have verbal reports of Russian T-55s and 62s being used as artillery near Pyatihatka. MT-12s are generally being used as indirect fire on almost every axis. We have one video of an entire Russian Msta-S battery (iirc 4 guns, unclear if reduced battery size or 2 didn't get spotted) getting hit. Given the overall state of Russian forces I would assume field expedients being used. This is at this point the norm. Russia even uses BMP-3s 100mm guns for indirect fire.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Hearing a lot of Twitter chatter about an alleged Wagner mini-coup against Russia's gov. Not gonna link anything because nothing's substantiated yet.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Yes, Twitter is all lit up and quite the circus. Some sanity to be found here:

Colonelcassad

Авторский канал Бориса Рожина - эксперта Центра военно-политической журналистики. Никнейм - Colonelcassad. Мой блог: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ Голосовать за канал: t.me/boost/boris_rozhin Разбаны: https://t.me/razban_colonelcassad_bot

t.me

 

[vikingatespam]

Yes, Twitter is all lit up and quite the circus. Some sanity to be found here:

Colonelcassad

Авторский канал Бориса Рожина - эксперта Центра военно-политической журналистики. Никнейм - Colonelcassad. Мой блог: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ Голосовать за канал: t.me/boost/boris_rozhin Разбаны: https://t.me/razban_colonelcassad_bot

t.me

This has GOT to be some political theatre. No way would Prig. talk this way without Putin's blessing.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

All good coups need to maintain and add up momentum. Seems that Wagner are certainly trying to do just that:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672345605115396097

 

[Feanor]

All good coups need to maintain and add up momentum. Seems that Wagner are certainly trying to do just that:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672345605115396097

Something seems to be happening. Military vehicles were spotted in down town Rostov-na-Donu, and Moscow. Note these appear to be National Guard, in other words exactly what you would expect to counter-act a coup attempt.

ASTRA

В центре Ростова — военная техника Фото: 161.ru

t.me

Moscow calling

Москва, центр - военная техника на Николоямской и Большой Дмитровке. Чёрт, а раньше, до короношизы, на Большой Дмитровке была пиздатая бургерная "Воронеж"...

t.me

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Increased security measures are reported in Moscow and Rostov-na-Donu around the HQ of South MD.

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vk.com

Meanwhile Boris Rozhin is of the opinion that this is essentially nothing. He's claiming the increased security measures are minimal and that nothing is happening around the Wagner center in St. Petersburg.

Colonelcassad

В центре Москвы катается БТР-82А Росгвардии, который снимают с разных ракурсов и пытаются создать видимость массового захода бронетехники в Москву. Больших колонн техники Росгвардии не отмечается.

t.me

Colonelcassad

У здания Вагнер-Центра в Питере ничего не происходит. Совсем.

t.me

Generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded videos calling to Wagner commanders not to follow orders from Prigozhin and to halt any movement of their formations. Both of those commanders have established links with Wagner.

Суровикин и Алексеев о ситуации с ЧВК "Вагнер"

Генералы Суровикин и Алексеев (зам.начальника ГШ ВС РФ) о ситуации с ЧВК Вагнер. На Пригожина официально заведено уголовное дело за призывы к мятежу.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Moscow calling

"АСТАНАВИТЕСЬ" "Я призываю остановиться", - Суровикин обратился к бойцам т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер". В то же время, ЦОС ФСБ призвал сотрудников т.н. ЧВК "Вагнер" задержать Пригожина: "Призываем бойцов "ЧВК" не совершать непоправимой ошибки, прекратить любые силовые действия против российского народа...

t.me

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EDIT: The center of Rostov, everything appears to be quiet.

Colonelcassad

Военкор Лисицын из центра Ростова. Ничего существенного не происходит.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Amid all this fun an excitement Russia appears to have eaten a second Caesar howitzer. It flips on the road after dodging a Russian loitering munition. Then gets hit directly, while CASEVAC from the accident is being done, in the roadside greenery. So far the Caesar and PzH-2000 demonstrate the greatest survivability of all Ukrainian artillery systems by a long way.

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[Big_Zucchini]

Same BTR rolling down Moscow streets, I wouldn't give it much credibility. Reports about something big going down in St Petersburg (Wagner offices) also turned out to be false.
And now we're seeing what is likely some scare posts that almost always turn out false. How do we know? Too much hysteria among Russians is implied.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672372366641451008

But simultaneously, some western officials are saying it's "the real deal".

There's this interesting statement from a Russia separatist group - "Liberty of Russia Legion"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672348371938320392

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672365690274082822

 

[vikingatespam]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672368863457996801

claims of actual combat on a road to Moscow by elements of Wagner.

W...T...F... is going on.

 

[KipPotapych]

Basically everything posted above in regards to the “coup” is straight up UA propaganda outlets (Feanor and Capt Ironpants aside).

I wouldn’t believe it till I see it, so to speak.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Basically everything posted above in regards to the “coup” is straight up UA propaganda outlets (Feanor and Capt Ironpants aside).

I wouldn’t believe it till I see it, so to speak.

That's kinda the point. There are many methods to authenticate info. One of them is to judge the tone in which information is presented.
Anton Geraschenko presents excessive levels of Russian hysteria. So authenticity is low.
Liberty of Russia legion present a written speech, no verbal and visual address, and it is perhaps more emotional and less practical than needed right now. Also rather low authenticity.
Jason presents a massively retweeted video. Fire can be seen behind trees so staying behind the first tree line that could be passed to provide much better footage, is really sus. Also low authenticity.