The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Germany now plans to deliver 155mm Vulcano ammunition in small numbers (255 rounds) to Ukraine. The ammunition will be bought from Leonardo via Diehl with German government funds and will likely be used in either PzH2000 or FH70 provided to Ukraine - since that's what it's been test-fired on. Ukraine will only get the GPS-guided version of Vulcano with nominal 80 km range and limited precision (roughly the same 5m CEP precision as M982 Excalibur), i.e. in combination with the small number primarily for precision strikes against stationary pinpoint objects.

Ukraine would be the sole and initial user of this ammunition. The ammunition type is not in service or planned for the Bundeswehr; Germany is currently certifying the laser-guided version with higher terminal precision for procurement in 2025.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Germany now plans to deliver 155mm Vulcano ammunition in small numbers (255 rounds) to Ukraine. The ammunition will be bought from Leonardo via Diehl with German government funds and will likely be used in either PzH2000 or FH70 provided to Ukraine - since that's what it's been test-fired on. Ukraine will only get the GPS-guided version of Vulcano with nominal 80 km range and limited precision (roughly the same 5m CEP precision as M982 Excalibur), i.e. in combination with the small number primarily for precision strikes against stationary pinpoint objects.

Ukraine would be the sole and initial user of this ammunition. The ammunition type is not in service or planned for the Bundeswehr; Germany is currently certifying the laser-guided version with higher terminal precision for procurement in 2025.
Can you link the source? The brochure in Leonardo's website talks about a 70km range for guided version (and 50km for unguided).
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
To the nuke experts here, if there are:
Is there any viable way for Ukraine to sabotage the plant to an extent that a nuclear 'accident' will be of minimal physical consequences?

The reactors need to be active and then have them deactivated uncontrollably to cause a meltdown - did I understand it correctly?
Not an expert but from a very rudimentary understanding point one would likely come down to knocking out transmission lines, as for point two no the reactors dont need to be active and have an uncontrollable deactivation to cause a meltdown. Even deactivated they them selves still require power to at minimum power the cooling pumps which for spent fuel alone is 5 years. From my googling between opinions on the currect feared crisis and that at Fukishima if it goes anymore then 24 hours with out the cooling pumps working then their would be a meltdown (including with the spend fuel in the pools). If (to my knowledge) for what ever reason power is knocked out and an external source can not be acquired then 24 hours later you are looking at a near certain meltdown or if the cooling pumps are damaged/destroyed then you are looking at a guaranteed meltdown.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Many reactor sites are also used for waste storage of low and medium level waste that has decayed but is still hazardous. Older sites will have a significant amount of waste. Artillery rounds hitting this stored material will be a big problem as well.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Can you link the source? The brochure in Leonardo's website talks about a 70km range for guided version (and 50km for unguided).
This Leonardo brochure quotes "up to 80 km range" for 155mm GLR while only refering to GPS for guidance: https://www.leonardo.us/hubfs/OTO VULCANO 155 (mm08723)_web.pdf

There may be a difference in range between the GPS and SAL guided versions. Note that virtually all releases stating 70 km refer to the SAL version. Or alternatively when creating this brochure they just copied the specs paragraph over from the one for 127 GLR.

I also suspect the 70 km nowadays usually stated come from a different angle: The Bundeswehr has an artillery concept in which it wants to extend tube artillery explicitly to exactly the same range as GMLRS. For that purpose Diehl sells them Vulcano 155 GLR SAL, and all announcements stem around the first tests for that purpose in 2019. Therefore the declassified range of Vulcano 155 GLR SAL is the same range as GMLRS.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
"Guess you guys are okay. Don't come to school tomorrow"

The footage:

The tight placement indicates they are trying to protect their military equipment, i.e using the facility as a shield. About as damning as it gets.
The description doesn't do justice to the image of a military truck column parked inside the NPP. This is pretty serious and makes me wonder about the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes there, for this to be the solution.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Allegedly Ukrainian infantry getting hit somewhere in Kherson region.


A Russian Tigr-M armored car hit a land mine somewhere between Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog.


Strikes landing in Novaya Kahovka, presumably Ukrainian.


Russian strikes landing in Nikolaev.


Russian Msta-S operations, somewhere towards Nikolaev.


One of the 4 turbines in the Novo-Kahovskaya dam have been shut down due to damage to some systems.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russia is using Tornado-S munitions, Zaporozhye area.


There are reports that Ukraine hit an energy distribution station at the Zaporozhskaya NPP.


Brimstone missile fragments were allegedly found in a street in Energodar, where one civilian was killed.


Kahrkov-Sumy.

LNR forces using a 2B9 automatic mortar, Kharkov region.


Allegedly a Ukrainian fighter from Kraken claims he was abandoned wounded, and spent 2 days in the woods before being captured. He also claims there are Syrians fighting on the side of Ukraine.


LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues.


LNR 6th Cossack Rgt firing on Soledar.


DNR 1st Slavyanskaya Bde firing on Avdeevka.


Apparently Ukrainian forces blew a bridge on the north-eastern outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Rebel Kal'mius artillery bde operating near Avdeevka.


Ukrainian troops spotted with a captured T-72B3 mod'16, somewhere in Donetsk region. Note that while Ukraine captured quite a few Russian vehicles, actual use of combat vehicles, or at least confirmation of it, has been scarce.


What appear to be newly sent T-72Bs and T-80BVs heading to the front line.


Rebel T-72Bs and T-80BVs in Yasinovataya area.


Footage of Russian reconstruction efforts in Mariupol'. They're trying to showcase it, but not the scale and compare it to the size of the city.


Russia.

Russian Oniks launches.


Kalibr missiles being loaded on to a 11356R frigate.


There are reports that Iran will supply as many as 1000 UAVs to Russia. Specifically the Shahed 129 is named, but it's quite plausible that there will be other types.


Russia is loosening requirements for residency status for Ukrainian and LDNR citizens.


Misc.


Russian T-72B3mod'16 in action, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian M-777 destroyed, location and context unclear.


Captured Ukrainian T-72AV and T-64BV, location and context unclear.


Captured Ukrainian BTR-4, location and context unclear.


Allegedly first use of a Ukrainian Stormer HVM SAM, against a Russian Orlan-10.


Ukrainian MT-12 mounted on a MT-LB as an SP AT gun. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian L119 operations, location and context unclear.


A Ukrainian M-113 column, location and context unclear. The type has not yet been spotted on the front lines, to the best of my experience.


Ukrainian PzH-2000, location and context unclear.


A column of 18 (my count) MaxxPro MRAPs in Ukraine, location and context unclear.


A FIM-43 Redeye has been spotted in Ukraine. Allegedly captured by Russian/rebel forces.


NATO/EU.


There are reports that Slovakia will hand over their 11 MiG-29s to Ukraine.


Reportedly the first 4 Zuzana-2 howitzers have arrived in Ukraine, out of 16 total. The number ordered is strange, since a standard artillery btln is 18 tubes.


Footage of Ukrainian soldiers training in the UK.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Both of them will be in loosing sides (if nuclear incident happen), but Ukraine have more motives in my opinion on harming the facilities. It is their biggest chances to regain something, and in same time pushing western public opinion to support more active escalation. It is a desprate strategy, but Ukraine possition is not showing big regain despite all talks from Kyiv and Western supports.
My friend we will disagree on this. Ukraine would have far more to lose than Russia by damaging the facilities, and / or creating a dirty bomb. For one thing it would be Ukrainian people and territory that would be damaged for generations; think the Chernobyl exclusion zone and the impacts that had. I agree that the Ukrainians face an uphill battle in evicting the Russians from Ukrainian territory, but at present they are holding their own. It's to months until winter and they can still do a lot between now and then. By the same token the Russians can also do the same, however they appear to have lost the momentum and momentum in war is very important. They also are having problems replacing men and material and at some point they will reach the point where drastic decisions will have to be made whether they like it or not. Replacements are now being sent into the line with very little training, and that's not good. The Russian military is a shadow of its former self.

It appears that the Ukrainians used a COTS Chinese civilian UAV as a kamikaze to strike the VMF Black Sea Fleet HA at Sevastopol. Ukraine Situation Report: Shadowy Long-Range Kamikaze Drone Strikes Again Apparently its a favourite of theirs and very cost effective. They have integrated an explosive payload to the UAV.
.
Over the weekend (NZ time) Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian far right ideologue, philosopher and reputably Putin's brain Alexander Dugina, was assassinated in Moscow. A car bomb was used. Ukraine is the main suspect, but it could've been a Ukrainian supporter.
 

Boatteacher

Active Member
Over the weekend (NZ time) Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian far right ideologue, philosopher and reputably Putin's brain Alexander Dugina, was assassinated in Moscow. A car bomb was used. Ukraine is the main suspect, but it could've been a Ukrainian supporter.
More recent speculation seems to be that it is - or is more likely to be - an inside job; in effect the prelude to or first inkling of a coup.
https://www.news.com.au/world/europ...a/news-story/1583b9b4fd03817a4284a6f21d2a134a
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
It's sourced from The Sun. They've never be known to let the truth stand in the way of a story. It's pure unfounded speculation on their part.
Nevertheless it would be a positive if true. If the 80,000 casualty number is on the low end and reported recruiting efforts are falling short then the speculation is warranted.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Ukraine would have far more to lose than Russia by damaging the facilities, and / or creating a dirty bomb. For one thing it would be Ukrainian people and territory that would be damaged for generations; think the Chernobyl exclusion zone and the impacts that had.
Ngati I know we have different opinions on this war. I put the 'desperation' scenario on Ukraine side, while many (especially in the west) think the desperation is in Russian side. Quite interesting that looking to non western media or online forums which think the desperation are in Ukraine sides. Thus shown how perception increasingly diverse on this war internationally.

Personally, I always put my thinking from beginning of this conflict (even before Russian invasion), that both regime have similar behavior. Both basically coming from same pile of clothes. Zelensky maybe new in power, however there's enough media coverage even from Western ones shown how ruthless he push the opposition. His opposition coming mostly from Pro Russian camp, and has constituents based in East. The area where the war happening now.

So for many non western, what Putin regime capable to act, Zelensky regime has similar potential. For that I don't differentiate much between both of them to go down low, including using nuclear power plant as hostage. Western sources claim Russian using the power plant as based to attack Zaparozhye. Well let's entertaint that's it's true, then if Ukraine above Russian morally on doing war (as Western media and politicians shove public opinion direction to), why they still firing back toward that.

Then off course pro Western opinion going to say there's no prove Ukranian shoot back toward the power plant (even tough the ballistic trajectory shown more probable direction coming from Ukranian position). I can shown the assessment, but as mostly coming from Russian sides, why bother putting it here.

Cynical thinking will say, Kviy will not care. Cause the East is where opposition constituents based, so will Kyiv regime cares ?But then again many in the West will claim it is Russian propaganda.

That's the point, the fog of war already very thick from both sides. Both sides already creating enough media diversions, and both sides capable go down low. How interesting the voices in West that are critical to Zelensky regime treatment toward the opposition, toward the separatist in Donbas, toward their corruption, now mostly tone down, clouded by voices shown how a strong uncorrupted Zelensky and his regime is.

This is why I don't take any information from either sides without grain of salt as big of sea of azov it self. This why in my previous post, I put both sides have enough incentive to go dirty on taking nuclear hostage on the power plant. However as Ukranian are more desperate, their incentive got more bigger then Russian ones.

Replacements are now being sent into the line with very little training, and that's not good. The Russian military is a shadow of its former self.
Agreed on that, Russian already wasted their momentum in March and April. However what I also seems see many in Collective West didn't want to admit is how low the Ukranian army condition already. Russian loosing much, but Ukrainian loosing more.

From May this war already become war of attrition. War of attrition is happening in both world wars, and it is ugly and time consuming. However as I have put before, Western supplies will not be enough if your own MIC didn't exist anymore. USSR even tough got support from US and UK, but the bulk of their military supplies coming from their own MIC production. Something that Ukraine doesn't have it. Ukrainian MIC mostly in East, in the area that are now under heavy war. Will collective west give enough supplies to compensate the loss of Ukrainian own MIC production ? I don't see that.

A car bomb was used. Ukraine is the main suspect, but it could've been a Ukrainian supporter.
It could also be internal struggle, it could also be wrong target. This is why I see both regime basically coming from same cloth, and both capable on doing low down action.
 
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vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Reportedly the first 4 Zuzana-2 howitzers have arrived in Ukraine, out of 16 total. The number ordered is strange, since a standard artillery btln is 18 tubes.
May have something to do with according to wiki Slovakia having 16 of them active. Perhaps they have struck a deal to buy their existing stock? Ordering from a production line does take time so if they can buy an odd number of existing vehicles I dont think they would care to much if it is higher or lower then a standard arty battalion. That being said is the UA arty btln 18 guns? I do recall at one stage the US M109 btln was 2 x 8 gun batteries then changed to 3 x 6 gun batteries later.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Yes, the father was the likely intended target, the perpetrators, who knows. A rogue Ukraine supporter seems more likely than a Ukraine government operation as their isn’t much to be gained by this operation. Could be internal, given the amount of blood and treasure this debacle has cost Russia. I imagine there are numerous Russians who blame Dugina.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
Over the weekend (NZ time) Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian far right ideologue, philosopher and reputably Putin's brain Alexander Dugina, was assassinated in Moscow. A car bomb was used. Ukraine is the main suspect, but it could've been a Ukrainian supporter.
Small point, but she was Dugina & he's Dugin. Russian female surnames have a feminine ending.

With regard to whoever did it, I don't know, but I don't see how Ukraine could gain from it, or expect to gain, so it fails the "cui bono?" test.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Small point, but she was Dugina & he's Dugin. Russian female surnames have a feminine ending.

With regard to whoever did it, I don't know, but I don't see how Ukraine could gain from it, or expect to gain, so it fails the "cui bono?" test.
Russia's entire invasion of Ukraine fails the cui bono test, along with many other actions... I don't know that we can assume complete and impartial rationality from the decision makers in this conflict.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Small point, but she was Dugina & he's Dugin. Russian female surnames have a feminine ending.
Thanks.
With regard to whoever did it, I don't know, but I don't see how Ukraine could gain from it, or expect to gain, so it fails the "cui bono?" test.
Definitely, what would Ukraine gain from such a hit. However I can think of many reasons for Putin's govt to order such a hit. An unknown group, the National Republican Army, has claimed responsibility for the Dugina car bombing. I would presume that it's a Russian located group. It smells of maskirovka and that's pure speculation on my part. However it wouldn't surprise me.


Who needs enemies when Russia has citizen like this. Relaxed Russian tourist photo gives away Vladimir Putin's air defences to Ukrainian forces
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Strikes against the Antonov bridge continue.


Russian strikes on Nikolaev.


Destroyed Ukrainian T-80BV, and allegedly Ukrainian BMP-1.


There is evidence Ukraine is rebuilding the Martynovka airfield in Nikolaev region.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly a Brimstone missile landing in Energodar.


Brimstone fragments found in Energodar.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Allegedly a Ukrainian tank getting hit, Kharkov region. Note the other explosions and the scatter. It's probably sheer luck they got a hit.


Russia allegedly hitting a Ukrainian checkpoint in Sumy region near the Russian border with a Krasnopol' guided shell.


Ukrainian soldiers riding a BTR in Kharkov region, with near artillery fire. Context unclear.


LDNR Front.

DNR anti-tank battery in action, MT-12s. Location and context unclear.


Russian strikes on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian and rebel forces in action near Soledar.


Apparently fighting in Peski, possibly old footage from before the fall.


Allegedly destruction of Ukrainian vehicles west of Peski.


Allegedly overrun Ukrainian positions near Seversk. Warning, footage of corpses.


A large explosion went off in Rodakovo, between Lugansk and Alchevsk, possibly a Russian fuel or munitions dump hit.


DNR 11th Rgt in action with T-72B3mod'16s on the outskirts of Peski.


Apparently a destroyed Ukrainian Humvee, allegedly near Seversk.


Two Ukrainian UAVs went down, the smaller one was apparently shot down, the larger allegedly brought down some other way, presumably EW.


Near Avdeevka, a captured Ukrainian AT-105, and a destroyed BMP-2, also allegedly Ukrainian.


Battle damage from a Russian strike in Ugledar, allegedly Ukrainian munition storage.


Rebel forces in Peski.


LNR fighters in the KNAUF factory, Soledar.


DNR 100th Bde in Neveslkoe near Avdeevka.


Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64 hiding next to a house in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


DNR 9th Rgt with T-80BVs, newly received.


DNR 1st Slavyanskaya Bde fighters.


A video has appeared of LNR draftees apparently refusing to fight for the DPR. This is partially tied to the heavy casualties and involuntary conscription, partially to the fact that Ukrainian forces are basically away from Lugansk.


Russia.

A Ukrainian loitering munition hit a tower in Belgorod region, that was allegedly used for fire observation and prevention.


Bashkiriya, a Russian volunteer btln training. Note they're training on up-armored BMP-3s. These are likely brand new, we haven't seen BMP-3s with mounting for additional armor actually carrying the additional armor in any line units. In one shot we also BMP-2Ms with Berezhok. Note, in the second video they're apparently riding BRM-1s.


Misc.

Russian Ka-52 getting hit by a missile. Ukrainian sources claim it went down, Russian sources claim it survived.


Apparently a Ukrainian 2S7 exploding. Location and context unclear.


Russian Tor-M2 operations, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.


NATO/EU.

French HPD modF2 landmines have been spotted in Ukraine.


Latvia has apparently handed over two Mi-2s and Mi-8s to Ukraine.

 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
It's probably the photo of that guy in swimwear posing in front of a S-300/S-400 launch unit on a sand dune near some salt lake on Crimea.

The image was discovered in July on Russian facebook equivalent VK.com by a Swiss guy working OSINT. He collated the information through searching for more pictures of the site as well as satellite imagery, precisely geolocating a S-400 site there. Then to publish his discovery "for some reason" he used a journalist who happens to work for RFE/RL, i.e. the US propaganda outlet.
 
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