The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Yes of course. Even without proper integration, a HARM can dramatically increase success rates in certain scenarios.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556751670402596865

First, HARM in its D variant which is confirmed to be used by Ukraine, has GPS guidance, so it's already better than any unguided long range rocket, and its 150km range (albeit at altitude and speed) gives it a farther reach than HIMARS.

We know HARM has multiple employment modes, of which one permits somewhat effective use even without digital integration with the aircraft.

Its ability to lock onto not only radars but also jammers allows it to hit with high probability targets that moved after aircraft lifted off.
It does however still suffer from ineffectiveness if the Russians simply switch off radars and jammers for a while.
This means HARMs might be somewhat useful for destroying Russian radars, but more useful for sneaking Ukrainian aircraft and other munitions past air defense bubbles.

I wouldn't be surprised if HARMs were instrumental in the recent Crimea strikes, when everyone was wondering "what the air defense doing?"

Presumably the solution should be to shoot down the HARM itself, if possible. Russia has recently deployed the S-350 to Crimea, possibly in response to the recent strikes, as their first sighting occurred ~1 week after the incident at Novofedorovka, and they showed up at Gvardeyskoe. Sources speculate that this is a new unit of S-350s re-arming the 1096th Rgt from Osa to S-350 (quite the upgrade), but it's also possible this is the 1721st Air Defense Rgt out of Sochi, sent to Crimea.

 

[seaspear]

Is this a new attack on an airbase in Crimea there are reports that aircraft are being moved from Crimea to Russia ?
Russian media report new explosions on military airfield near Simferopol in Crimea | Ukrainska Pravda

 

[ngatimozart]

Is this a new attack on an airbase in Crimea there are reports that aircraft are being moved from Crimea to Russia ?
Russian media report new explosions on military airfield near Simferopol in Crimea | Ukrainska Pravda

More Russians smoking in the magazines again? If correct then a pattern is emerging of Ukrainian attacks on Russian military infrastructure in Crimea forcing the Russians to react. Crimea has always been see as safe by the Russians, but now it isn't and that will create some problems for them.

 

[Feanor]

More Russians smoking in the magazines again? If correct then a pattern is emerging of Ukrainian attacks on Russian military infrastructure in Crimea forcing the Russians to react. Crimea has always been see as safe by the Russians, but now it isn't and that will create some problems for them.

There were additional explosions at an ammo storage area too. I'm now 4 days behind and won't have time to post an update until Sunday at the earliest, but things are happening. Ukraine seems to be hitting Crimea hard, meanwhile Russian and rebel forces have broken out of Peski westward, threatening Avdeevka from the south, but not turning north of south, instead pushing dead westward for now. The position there is turning into a salient with unclear objectives. Ukraine is building a massive defense area around Kiev, with unclear purposes, and reportedly many newly formed units with western equipment are in that area. Is Ukraine planning a counter-attack east of Kharkov? An attempt to push into Russia itself? Or is there some credible new threat to Kiev that we're unaware of? Unclear to me at this time.

 

[Vivendi]

The Kiel institute tracker was updated today, with data collected until August 3: Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

In July, Ukraine received only around 1,5 billion euros in new pledges of support. In total, the tracker now records commitments of 84.2 billion euros.

According to the tracker, large EU countries Italy and France have committed only 0.15 and 0.23 billion Euros in military assistance -- this compares poorly to Latvia and Estonia (0.25 billion each) and Czech Republic (0.35 billion Euros). This is disappointing, sad, and quite disconcerting, but unfortunately not surprising. Europe needs to step up, in particular the larger EU countries. If only they could follow the lead of the Baltics, Poland and the UK.

It's also interesting to note that Australia has committed the same level of military aid as France. Australia clearly understands the importance and urgency of supporting Ukraine. I will keep buying Australian red wine! (it's also very good).

This tracker should be taken with a grain of salt of course -- for instance I know through various sources that Finland has sent significant amounts of unannounced military aid to Ukraine, this is not reflected in the tracker at this point in time.

 

[John Fedup]

The Kiel institute tracker was updated today, with data collected until August 3: Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

In July, Ukraine received only around 1,5 billion euros in new pledges of support. In total, the tracker now records commitments of 84.2 billion euros.

According to the tracker, large EU countries Italy and France have committed only 0.15 and 0.23 billion Euros in military assistance -- this compares poorly to Latvia and Estonia (0.25 billion each) and Czech Republic (0.35 billion Euros). This is disappointing, sad, and quite disconcerting, but unfortunately not surprising. Europe needs to step up, in particular the larger EU countries. If only they could follow the lead of the Baltics, Poland and the UK.

It's also interesting to note that Australia has committed the same level of military aid as France. Australia clearly understands the importance and urgency of supporting Ukraine. I will keep buying Australian red wine! (it's also very good).

This tracker should be taken with a grain of salt of course -- for instance I know through various sources that Finland has sent significant amounts of unannounced military aid to Ukraine, this is not reflected in the tracker at this point in time.

It would be interesting to know if other countries made unannounced aid besides their officially announced aid.

 

[ngatimozart]

There were additional explosions at an ammo storage area too. I'm now 4 days behind and won't have time to post an update until Sunday at the earliest, but things are happening. Ukraine seems to be hitting Crimea hard, meanwhile Russian and rebel forces have broken out of Peski westward, threatening Avdeevka from the south, but not turning north of south, instead pushing dead westward for now. The position there is turning into a salient with unclear objectives. Ukraine is building a massive defense area around Kiev, with unclear purposes, and reportedly many newly formed units with western equipment are in that area. Is Ukraine planning a counter-attack east of Kharkov? An attempt to push into Russia itself? Or is there some credible new threat to Kiev that we're unaware of? Unclear to me at this time.

Yep, there apparently was another one in Yarylhach, late last night NZ time bringing the total to four, making that two in 24 hours. I haven't had time to obtain independent verification because the source was Ukrainian.

ISW Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
August 18, 7pm ET

Main Points.

• There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.
• Russian sources reported a series of unidentified and unconfirmed explosions across Crimea on the night of August 18.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense may be setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russian forces conducted ground assaults south of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations north, west, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground assault on the Zaporizhia axis.
• Ukrainian officials confirmed additional strikes on a Russian military base and warehouse in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is likely leveraging established Cossack organizations to support Russian force generation efforts.
• Russian occupation officials continued preparations for the long-term integration of occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources did not claim any new territorial gains on August 18. However, Russian forces still conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults across the eastern axis on August 18.

Russian sources reported explosions across Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air defenses, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack—the night of August 18. Three local sources told Reuters that at least four explosions struck around Belbek Airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, near Sevastopol.[2] The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, claimed that preliminary information indicated that Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian drone and caused no damage.[3] Video of a large explosion that circulated on social media in the immediate aftermath of the reported explosions was from a previous engagement on August 8 and is not from the vicinity of the airbase.[4]

Russian sources also claimed that Russian air defenses shot down a drone near the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and Russia on the night of August 18 as social media footage showed active air defenses in the area.[5] Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted on August 17 that the Kerch bridge was illegally constructed and ”must be dismantled.”[6] The railway side of the Kerch bridge is an important target for Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistics capabilities into occupied Ukraine. Social media videos also claimed to depict active Russian air defenses at a Russian base in Nova Kakhova in southern Kherson oblast the night of August 18, suggesting a possibly coordinated series of Ukrainian attacks, if there were attacks, or drone overflights.[7]

ISW cannot independently verify whether Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian UAV, or whether any UAV was present in Kerch or Belbek. A Russian social media user posted video claiming to be at Belbek on the evening of August 18, showing no apparent evidence of a strike there.[8] Ukrainian forces will likely continue their campaign to strike Russian military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea to degrade Russian logistics capabilities and degrade Russian capabilities to sustain operations on the west bank of the Dnipro River, as ISW previously assessed.[9] However, it is unclear at the time of publication whether the reported explosions are due to Ukrainian attacks or reconnaissance, poor Russian handling of military equipment, successful Russian air defenses, or nervous Russian defenders who are likely steeling themselves for additional attacks in areas that the Russian military had believed until now to be out of the range of Ukrainian forces.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be setting information conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for future false flag operations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, claimed in an August 18 briefing that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the provocation is meant to coincide with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Ukraine.[10] Kirillov accused Ukrainian forces of preparing to stage this provocation in order to blame Russia for causing a nuclear disaster and create a 30km-wide exclusion zone around the NPP.[11] Kirillov’s briefing, which was amplified by the Russian MoD, coincides with reports that Russian authorities told Russian NPP employees to not come in to work tomorrow, August 19.[12] Leaked footage from within the plant shows five Russian trucks very close to one of the reactors at the NPP on an unspecified date, which may indicate the Russian forces are setting conditions to cause a provocation at the plant and to shift the information narrative to blame Ukraine for any kinetic events that occur on the territory of the plant.[13]

Full article: Institute for the Study of War
The pdf can be downloaded here.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be setting information conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for future false flag operations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, claimed in an August 18 briefing that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the provocation is meant to coincide with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Ukraine.[10] Kirillov accused Ukrainian forces of preparing to stage this provocation in order to blame Russia for causing a nuclear disaster and create a 30km-wide exclusion zone around the NPP.[11] Kirillov’s briefing, which was amplified by the Russian MoD, coincides with reports that Russian authorities told Russian NPP employees to not come in to work tomorrow, August 19.[12] Leaked footage from within the plant shows five Russian trucks very close to one of the reactors at the NPP on an unspecified date, which may indicate the Russian forces are setting conditions to cause a provocation at the plant and to shift the information narrative to blame Ukraine for any kinetic events that occur on the territory of the plant.[13]

"Guess you guys are okay. Don't come to school tomorrow"

The footage:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560309427298787331

The tight placement indicates they are trying to protect their military equipment, i.e using the facility as a shield. About as damning as it gets.

 

[STURM]

Interesting discussion on the Ukraine's upgrade programme for its Fulcrums and the issue of F-16s [the guest previously appeared in an excellent discussion on the air wair - I posted the link in this and another thread]. The video starts with the guest providing an assessment on the current situation on the ground. The Ukrainians; having fully mobilised from the onset; will have the manpower advantage for the next few months he notes but in the longer term the Russians have the advantage; being able to call upon some 1.6 million people.

On the F-16s he points out that existing Ukrainian pilots would require a few months to gain sufficient proficiency but creating a pool of trained experience ground support personal would take longer and this would be the Ukraine's main challenge.

Another issue is that the F-16 is not designed to operate from the makeshift air strips the Ukrainians are operating from. Unsurprisingly his opinion is that from an operational perspective Gripen would be far more a suitable platform given that it was designed from the onset to be operated from makeshift airstrips/highways and be maintained [by conscripts] using much simpler tools. Other advantages would be Gripen's anti maritime capability and the possibility of it being armed with Meteor.

 

[At lakes]

Ukraine Citizen Who 'Destroyed' Russian Su-34 Jet With Rifle Given Medal

This is what I call one hell of a lucky shot, the rifle he is carrying looks like its a hefty weapon.

 

[Rob c]

Ukraine Citizen Who 'Destroyed' Russian Su-34 Jet With Rifle Given Medal

This is what I call one hell of a lucky shot, the rifle he is carrying looks like its a hefty weapon.

It's a shot gun, semi auto. Cannot see how this would bring down an aircraft unless it was very, very, very close

 

[STURM]

Reminds of the the 70 odd year old Iraqi farmer who shot down an Apache with his decades old bolt action rifle. Made for good propaganda but it wasn't true.

In this case all due respect to the Ukrainian and his rifle but we have no idea if it really happened.

 

[OPSSG]

HARM missiles supplied to Ukraine

1. Dr. Colin Kahl – recently did reference the supply of HARM in a briefing at the Pentagon. They wanted to be careful about how they talk publicly about capabilities that will give Ukraine a significant asymmetric & unexpected advantage.

2. Given that the Open Source intel have seen evidence of Ukraine using it successfully, the Americans are now willing to confirm. Exactly what AGM-88 variants the U.S. military has provided to the Ukrainians, how the integration of those missiles onto the MiG-29 was specifically achieved, and what modes the weapons can be employed in from those aircraft all remain unclear.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560719784303624193

3. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking to The War Zone and other outlets, disclosed that the Ukrainians integrated these missiles, with American assistance, onto their "MiG aircraft."

4. HARM missiles can be fired from Ukrainian MiG-29s (usually in a ‘pre-briefed’ mode). It is unlikely that the other typical teen series fighter modes like self-protect & target of opportunity are being used.

 

[ngatimozart]

"Guess you guys are okay. Don't come to school tomorrow"

The tight placement indicates they are trying to protect their military equipment, i.e using the facility as a shield. About as damning as it gets.

It actually creates a very serious problem.https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124532 When the Chernobyl accident happened, some of the nuclear fallout was recorded in Western Europe because of the ambient winds at the time. That was in peacetime. What happens if Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes? However now we have the situation where Russia is using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a fire base for both tube and rocket artillery with the expectation that Ukrainian forces will refrain from from counter battery fire.

Ukraine accuses Russia of plotting a false flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant Ukraine accuses Russia of plotting ‘false flag’ attack on nuclear power plant and I would believe the Ukrainian accusations before I would believe the Russian denials. The Russians have a habit of false flag ops; in fact they appear to be almost obsessed with them, and that is a weakness because it becomes SOP and every one knows it. The Russians have lied so much prior to and after the 2014 invasion, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, that any claims they make are subsequently always treated with considerable suspicion. But they, because of stubbornness, force of habit, or pure inability to change, won't change there modus operandi and will do what they have previously done because it is written in the book, and because it's written in The Book it is Holy Writ, never to be deviated from at all in any way. Jeez I served with some people who were like that. Not many thank god. We always reckoned one had his rank badges sewn on his pyjamas. But I digress.

The way I understand the plot is that the Russians intend a "terrorist" attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that will disable or destroy the incoming power supply and backup generation capability, causing a multi reactor meltdown. Simultaneously strategically placed explosives will destroy water containment facilities and various parts of the complex allowing for radioactive material to be blasted into the atmosphere. Due to prevailing and favourable ambient winds, this material would blow west and north across Ukraine into Romania, Hungary, Poland, and other NATO and EU countries. In the current time of war between Russia and Ukraine, one or all of the affected NATO nations may invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. That would be a result that would be highly detrimental to Putin's and Russia's future. I can't see the strategic or political logic in such a plan, from either side actually.

 

[tonnyc]

In the case of an attack or sabotage on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the first thing to remember is do not panic. There will be no second Chernobyl and panicked evacuation will do greater damage than sitting tight at home.

First, only two out of six reactors are active. You can not trigger a meltdown on those inactive reactors no matter what.

Next, these are VVER reactors, not RMBK ones. One massive difference is that RMBK has a positive void coefficient while VVERs (and all modern reactors) have negative void coefficient. What this means is that in RMBK reactors air bubbles created by the water boiling increases the rate of fission while in VVER air bubbles interferes with fission (hence the term negative coefficient). The fission will fizzle out long before all the water evaporated and if the water is pumped out or drained midway it will fizzle out even faster.

This doesn't mean meltdown is impossible. It could get hot enough to melt steel. But it means a nuclear explosion is impossible. It doesn't matter what the Russians do to sabotage the power plant, the law of physics makes it impossible.

What could happen though is a hydrogen explosion. The nuclear fuel is clad in zirconium because that metal has properties useful to facilitate fission. Zirconium at a high enough temperature will catalyze hidrogen separation from water. If this hydrogen can't find a way to readily escape, it could build up and if that happens, the hydrogen can react with oxygen to create a hydrogen flash. This, however, will not create a poisonous radioactive cloud. We had this happen in the Fukushima incident and as much as anti-nuclear organizations make a big deal out of it, it doesn't actually do much.

If Russia sabotages the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant what is likely to happen is a second Fukushima Daiichi. Zero people died from radiation during the Fukushima Daiichi incident. People died mostly from the evacuation panic. There isn't going to be a radioactive cloud poisoning everything it touches. There will be instead a minute release of radiation release, which people has to account for, but it is not the lethal monster the anti-nuclear people make it to be.

 

[Ananda]

Situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant ‘Very Alarming’, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Tells Security Council - Ukraine

News and Press Release in English on Ukraine about Disaster Management; published on 11 Aug 2022 by UN SC

reliefweb.int

Both sides have equal opportunities and incentives to conduct false flag on this power plant. There's too much accusation from West on Russian doing this, however Ukraine using this situation to 'blackmail' Russia to return the nuclear power plant toward their (Ukraine) control.

Something that will not even going to happen. Ukraine so far only talking big on counter offensive. Despite some incidents in Crimea and Kursk, they are shown have no abbilities whatsoever to do significant counteroffensive move. This is their biggest chance to push Russian on giving up something (that they can not realistically have chance with their Army performance so far)

Again both sides have motives and only putting that toward Russian, just taking on Ukranian despreate possition (which is not surprising on Western media). Desprate as they continue shown no abilities toward significant counteroffensive as Kyiv always talk this last two months (and being shown to the world by Western media).

Both of them will be in loosing sides (if nuclear incident happen), but Ukraine have more motives in my opinion on harming the facilities. It is their biggest chances to regain something, and in same time pushing western public opinion to support more active escalation. It is a desprate strategy, but Ukraine possition is not showing big regain despite all talks from Kyiv and Western supports.

 

[vonnoobie]

In the case of an attack or sabotage on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the first thing to remember is do not panic. There will be no second Chernobyl and panicked evacuation will do greater damage than sitting tight at home.

First, only two out of six reactors are active. You can not trigger a meltdown on those inactive reactors no matter what.

Next, these are VVER reactors, not RMBK ones. One massive difference is that RMBK has a positive void coefficient while VVERs (and all modern reactors) have negative void coefficient. What this means is that in RMBK reactors air bubbles created by the water boiling increases the rate of fission while in VVER air bubbles interferes with fission (hence the term negative coefficient). The fission will fizzle out long before all the water evaporated and if the water is pumped out or drained midway it will fizzle out even faster.

This doesn't mean meltdown is impossible. It could get hot enough to melt steel. But it means a nuclear explosion is impossible. It doesn't matter what the Russians do to sabotage the power plant, the law of physics makes it impossible.

What could happen though is a hydrogen explosion. The nuclear fuel is clad in zirconium because that metal has properties useful to facilitate fission. Zirconium at a high enough temperature will catalyze hidrogen separation from water. If this hydrogen can't find a way to readily escape, it could build up and if that happens, the hydrogen can react with oxygen to create a hydrogen flash. This, however, will not create a poisonous radioactive cloud. We had this happen in the Fukushima incident and as much as anti-nuclear organizations make a big deal out of it, it doesn't actually do much.

If Russia sabotages the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant what is likely to happen is a second Fukushima Daiichi. Zero people died from radiation during the Fukushima Daiichi incident. People died mostly from the evacuation panic. There isn't going to be a radioactive cloud poisoning everything it touches. There will be instead a minute release of radiation release, which people has to account for, but it is not the lethal monster the anti-nuclear people make it to be.

Plenty of that is totally incorrect if not an outright lie but lets leave it down to the simple basics. While only two (I have heard one) of the reactors are active the others even shut down still require cooling, If onsite power is cut off and no external power is available then the cooling pumps keeping not only those shut down reactors cool but also the pools filled with spent fuel are then at risk of meltdown. Now those wont trigger a nuclear explosion but is always a risk of such occuring and its not the explosion that is of concern but rather the radioactive material being sent up into the air getting spread around.

Takes about 5 years of cooling for spent fuel to be cool enough to not require cooling from the pumps, and their is hundreds of tons of fuel in those pools alone that are classified as being at risk ie: Not cool enough that if cooling fails then meltdown.

 

[seaspear]

I done believe its in Ukraine's best interest to have any sort of nuclear incident I'm sure they have Chernobyl in mind of the longer term consequences if this power plant is put out of commission by Russian forces to deny Ukraine its ability to restart supplying power to its own cities instead of being diverted to Russian controlled grid its not a great loss to Russia as it is to the Ukraine to address

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Due to prevailing and favourable ambient winds, this material would blow west and north across Ukraine into Romania, Hungary, Poland, and other NATO and EU countries. In the current time of war between Russia and Ukraine, one or all of the affected NATO nations may invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. That would be a result that would be highly detrimental to Putin's and Russia's future. I can't see the strategic or political logic in such a plan, from either side actually.

You make some good points, but we shouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to shoot himself in the foot. He thought the war would be over in a week, and it's almost certain to go into 2023 as things stand. He had the opportunity to declare victory after smashing Kyiv and grabbing the southern edge of Ukraine. Instead he's doubling-down on stretching this out in the hope the Ukrainians will formally surrender.

I can imagine Putin thinking that if he causes a nuclear disaster this winter, Europe will be so realing from energy shortages and protests - maybe even riots - that enough NATO governments will look the other way to limit a military response. Or that they become terrified this is a sign nuclear weapons will be used next, so Germany caves in and drags the rest down with it.

I'm not suggesting it's likely, I just don't put it beyond the man.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It actually creates a very serious problem.https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124532 When the Chernobyl accident happened, some of the nuclear fallout was recorded in Western Europe because of the ambient winds at the time. That was in peacetime. What happens if Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes? However now we have the situation where Russia is using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a fire base for both tube and rocket artillery with the expectation that Ukrainian forces will refrain from from counter battery fire.

Ukraine accuses Russia of plotting a false flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant Ukraine accuses Russia of plotting ‘false flag’ attack on nuclear power plant and I would believe the Ukrainian accusations before I would believe the Russian denials. The Russians have a habit of false flag ops; in fact they appear to be almost obsessed with them, and that is a weakness because it becomes SOP and every one knows it. The Russians have lied so much prior to and after the 2014 invasion, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, that any claims they make are subsequently always treated with considerable suspicion. But they, because of stubbornness, force of habit, or pure inability to change, won't change there modus operandi and will do what they have previously done because it is written in the book, and because it's written in The Book it is Holy Writ, never to be deviated from at all in any way. Jeez I served with some people who were like that. Not many thank god. We always reckoned one had his rank badges sewn on his pyjamas. But I digress.

The way I understand the plot is that the Russians intend a "terrorist" attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that will disable or destroy the incoming power supply and backup generation capability, causing a multi reactor meltdown. Simultaneously strategically placed explosives will destroy water containment facilities and various parts of the complex allowing for radioactive material to be blasted into the atmosphere. Due to prevailing and favourable ambient winds, this material would blow west and north across Ukraine into Romania, Hungary, Poland, and other NATO and EU countries. In the current time of war between Russia and Ukraine, one or all of the affected NATO nations may invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. That would be a result that would be highly detrimental to Putin's and Russia's future. I can't see the strategic or political logic in such a plan, from either side actually.

To the nuke experts here, if there are:
Is there any viable way for Ukraine to sabotage the plant to an extent that a nuclear 'accident' will be of minimal physical consequences?

The reactors need to be active and then have them deactivated uncontrollably to cause a meltdown - did I understand it correctly?