The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Big_Zucchini]

Amnesty International came under flak for its report. Zelensky accused it of parroting Russia.

Amnesty, HRW, and UNHRC have always been a laughing stock for actual human rights activists and orgs. It just happened that Amnesty exhibited the exact same policy it maintained for many, many years, at a time where people are most interested in Ukraine.
Had they waited a year, or had Ukraine been another middle eastern, African, or east Asian country, none would care about Amnesty's report.

They have value to many people because they portray themselves as a force for good, but there is no real accountability, and much of what they say is accepted as truth because they're some moral authority.
This is why 'bad actors' like Russia, China, Iran etc, see a high value in bribing such orgs, and it's also what makes them so vulnerable to such attempts.

Thankfully there are a good bunch of orgs that identify funding sources of other NGOs and politicians, which gives us a solid OSINT tool for identifying reliable or unreliable entities.


Back on topic, it seems there are talks of more Gepards for Ukraine, but were there any reported engagements for this system?

 

[Milne Bay]

Back on topic, it seems there are talks of more Gepards for Ukraine, but were there any reported engagements for this system?

If I recall correctly, a reliable source of ammunition for the Gepards was the initial holdup.
I haven't heard how this has been solved as yet, perhaps it has been and thus more Gepards are worth acquiring
MB

 

[Big_Zucchini]

If I recall correctly, a reliable source of ammunition for the Gepards was the initial holdup.
I haven't heard how this has been solved as yet, perhaps it has been and thus more Gepards are worth acquiring
MB

True, it was a holdup. Specifically Switzerland didn't want to sell ammo, and Germany didn't keep enough in storage. About 600 rounds of ammo were available per vehicle at the beginning IIRC.
But the Gepard itself is a large, hard to maintain, noisy, and EM emitting vehicle. It is going to be hard to protect once on the frontline, and I'd only see value in more sales if it had some proven value.

In the days of the Lebanon security belt, IDF used Hovet/Machbet (M163 equivalent) in a urban fire support role. Gepards could be useful in areas where there are few Russian MBTs.

Maybe it's the lower focus on Ukraine that is the reason I'm seeing fewer Russian helicopters around?

 

[STURM]

Amnesty, HRW, and UNHRC have always been a laughing stock for actual human rights activists and orgs.

Are you saying that the Amenesty report on the Ukraine is a total fabrication? What about the equally damning reports on Russia?

This is why 'bad actors' like Russia, China, Iran etc, see a high value in bribing such orgs, and it's also what makes them so vulnerable to such attempts.

Has Amnesty received funding from Russia?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Are you saying that the Amenesty report on the Ukraine is a total fabrication? What about the equally damning reports on Russia?

Has Amnesty received funding from Russia?

I don't know whether or not it's fabrication, and whether they received funding specifically from Russia.
If Amnesty was correct in their report, they should have not only provided evidence, but also inform the Ukrainian government and other relevant bodies, instead of coming out in sensational headlines that very clearly only served to fuel the political efforts of some of the world's most abusive regimes.


However, I don't need to know that to form a conclusion. I only need a solid methodology, and what contributes to this is a very long history of rot and racism in Amnesty and its fellow orgs.

Former Amnesty chief Irene Khan enjoyed condemning democracies, but is oddly cozy with China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1284020323155943425

Another recent example, UN demands of OCHA employee to apologize to PIJ for critical tweet before removing her from post anyway.
The UN's agencies are closely politically aligned with orgs like Amnesty and HRW, and their reports share a disturbingly similar pattern.

Senior UN official loses her post after tweet condemning PIJ rocket fire at Israel

Jerusalem-based Sarah Muscroft to be assigned new role, spokesman says, after her statement panning rockets that 'provoke Israeli retaliation' met strong backlash from Palestinians

www.timesofisrael.com

There are also the UNHRC racism scandals like item 7 and the permanent CoI and the absolute silence from all said orgs on Rushdie's assassination attempt.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558791545087721472

HRW's lobbying to remove sanctions from Iran to facilitate COVID vaccine transfers, despite Iran's own rejection of said vaccines due to their alleged "homosexualizing traits".

US: Ease Sanctions on Iran in COVID-19 Crisis

Broad US-imposed economic sanctions are negatively affecting the Iranian government’s ability to adequately respond to the mounting health consequences of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

www.hrw.org

Amnesty is known to be exceptionally critical of democracies. This includes the US, Israel, and now Ukraine, as the obvious examples.
And it is known to be exceptionally forgiving of opponents of democracy. This includes China, Hamas/PIJ/PA, Russia.
It is also particularly active and vocal in combating islamophobia. But when it comes to non-muslims, they claim they "can't lobby on everything" when only short statements are requested.

I've even placed bets on when Amnesty and the likes would condemn Ukraine. I'm only surprised it took them this long, but this was absolutely predictable for anyone who follows said orgs. This is absolutely in line with their political course.

 

[STURM]

Thank you. I was asking about the Ukraine report specifically and I will point out that Amnesty also released a report detailing various things Russia has done. It's not as if Amnesty was claiming that it was only the Ukraine which was "misbehaving" - Amnesty was highly critical of both Russia and the Ukraine.

As for Amnesty's agenda and whether or not it focuses only on democracies as you claim and its biase against non Muslims; I have no idea and frankly I'm not interested. As far as I'm concerned nobody is beyond scrutiny and nobody has a monopoly on truth.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Thank you. I was asking about the Ukraine report specifically and I will point out that Amnesty also released a report detailing various things Russia has done. It's not as if Amnesty was claiming that it was only the Ukraine which was "misbehaving" - Amnesty was highly critical of both Russia and the Ukraine.

As for Amnesty's agenda and whether or not it focuses only on democracies as you claim and its biase against non Muslims; I have no idea and frankly I'm not interested. As far as I'm concerned nobody is beyond scrutiny and nobody has a monopoly on truth.

Some proportion is due.
Let's consider 3 scenarios, in which Amnesty reports are divided as such:

1. 0% criticizing Ukraine, 100% criticizing Russia.
2. 10% criticizing Ukraine, 90% criticizing Russia.
3. 50% criticizing Ukraine, 50% criticizing Russia.
4. 90% criticizing Ukraine, 10% criticizing Russia.
5. 100% criticizing Ukraine, 0% criticizing Russia.


Right off the bat, we see scenarios 1 and 5 lay zero blame on one side. Our understanding of warfare tells us this is mathematically impossible over such a long period, unless some external (and still irrelevant YET) factor is at play.
So we categorize 1 and 5 as illegitimate outcomes and Amnesty is therefore biased and unreliable.

Scenario 4 points to Ukraine as the aggressor. This is not the case so that is again an illegitimate course of action for Amnesty.

Scenario 3 implies both sides are equally at fault, and ignores the massive disparity in RoE and strategy between Ukraine and Russia. On these grounds alone this scenario is illegitimate. Of course it also ignores the aggressor/defender dynamics.

Scenario 2 shows Russia as the aggressor, which it is, but doesn't leave Ukraine without accountability. This scenario is legitimate and if that were the case, we can move on.

The reality is indeed scenario 2, but that doesn't tell the whole story. So let's proceed to the content.

In their reports, Amnesty can choose to go many different ways. Here it's much more dynamic.
None of Amnesty's reports really made an impact. It was a lot of regurgitating known information and generally just goes under the radar. This is a symptom of them possibly not investing any effort in their own investigative work.
What can they do then if they don't personally investigate? They can compile data for others, and they can do analysis of some data.
But if they were really all about compiling data, then they wouldn't create purely sensational reports like the one at hand.
And if they were doing analysis, their reports would actually stick.
They could simply steer away from this conflict since they have nothing to contribute in a systematic way, but they didn't. They chose to be involved and they made more harm than good.


As for the report itself. Its wording and its timing are perhaps the most damning aspects.
First, its publishing coincided with operation Breaking Dawn.
Second, its wording, as if Ukraine uses human shields, is a well known PIJ and Hamas tactic.

Amnesty did not only accuse Ukraine of a war crime which it has failed to prove, but it deliberately compared it to PIJ and Hamas.
You may call it a coincidence. Fine. But to many, this is an intentional comparison, and it's very hard to ignore.
This is not unexpected though. Amnesty has a longstanding bias towards terrorist organizations, and drawing a parallel between them and Ukraine is a huge red line for many.

 

[STURM]

Second, its wording, as if Ukraine uses human shields, is a well known PIJ and Hamas tactic.

Well obviously it's a tactic which doesn't work because despite Israel's claims of doing its outmost to avoid civilian casualties; Palestinian children still die [the names and ande photos of the 15 Palestinian children are available] but of course it's not Israel's fault at all...

Amnesty did not only accuse Ukraine of a war crime which it has failed to prove, but it deliberately compared it to PIJ and Hamas..

You know for certain it didn't provide any proof? You saying that the report is a total fabrication? Did Amnesty provide any proof when it also released a damming report criticising Russia for numerous things? If Amnesty released a report which was critical of Hamas, Hezabollah and Fatah; would you still make claims of a lack of evidence and certain bias?

Back to the Ukraine; never mind what Amnesty or any organisation which doesn't have your seal of approval says; are you unequivocally saying that the Ukraine is totally innocent of any claims of wrongdoing; to me that's the impression you're giving. Not only that but can you actually show how Amnesty's claims about the Ukraine was incorrect/fabricated and I line with a nefarious agenda/policy?

This is not unexpected though. Amnesty has a longstanding bias towards terrorist organizations, and drawing a parallel between them and Ukraine is a huge red line for many.

That's your opinion - everyone has their own opinions and biases and you're certainly entitled to yours. As for bias towards terrorist organistions; that's a matter of opinion and debate; as is what really constitutes [never mind what Israel or the U.S. says] a "terrorist organisation".

This is why 'bad actors' like Russia, China, Iran etc, see a high value in bribing such orgs

You spoke about Amnesty and the supposed lack of lack of evidence; is there evidence that "bad actors" [to quote your good self] have actually bribed organisations such as Amnesty?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Well obviously it's a tactic which doesn't work because despite Israel's claims of doing its outmost to avoid civilian casualties; Palestinian children still die [the names and ande photos of the 15 Palestinian children are available] but of course it's not Israel's fault at all...

Using human shields is a tactic that never works in the long term for those with a moral compass. Terrorist organizations have it as their MO. Western countries, including Ukraine, don't.

• Palestinian children still die, yes, BECAUSE of PIJ's use of human shields. That's literally in the name.

I don't know where you read your news, but even AP who admitted to have intentionally reported falsehoods to blame Israel and praise Hamas and PIJ, has reported that 12 of the children (when 15 were deceased) were confirmed to have been killed by PIJ and the rest unknown.

It has been widely reported that PIJ had a massive rate of misfires, and over 200 were reportedly misfired and landed back in Gaza (out of 1,100 fired).

There is visual evidence that circulated global media, showing definitive proof PIJ killed those children in Jabaliya.
A report:

Misfired rockets may have killed over a dozen in Gaza battle

The Israeli military says that close to one-third of the Palestinians who died in the latest outbreak of violence between Israel and Gaza militants may have been killed by errant rockets fired by the Palestinian side.

apnews.com

Footage:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556186884103086081

This footage is an example of hard evidence. In the absence of hard evidence for one incident, Amnesty could point to a trend involving many micro-infractions documented and circulated via social media and OSINT accounts. If that were to happen, Amnesty could claim rightfully there is no shred of doubt, but I follow every OSINT channel that I can find, and I have never seen any evidence of that. Not even a single micro infraction. I definitely miss out on the majority of intel coming in from Ukraine. But statistically speaking, if this was a real trend, something damning would surely find its way to my feed.

You know for certain it didn't provide any proof? You saying that the report is a total fabrication? Did Amnesty provide any proof when it also released a damming report criticising Russia for numerous things? If Amnesty released a report which was critical of Hamas, Hezabollah and Fatah; would you still make claims of a lack of evidence and certain bias?

1. I have read their report. They present no verifiable evidence.
2. The report is not a fabrication, but a gross misrepresentation of the facts.
3. I don't read their reports on Russia to know, but I know their methodology is wholly unprofessional, so I don't expect them to provide either evidence or a logical conclusion in any case.
4. I don't need Amnesty to know what Hamas, Hezbollah, and Fatah are doing. If Amnesty put out a report condemning them, I'd know it was true because I've received the evidence from somewhere else and made my conclusion.

Back to the Ukraine; never mind what Amnesty or any organisation which doesn't have your seal of approval says; are you unequivocally saying that the Ukraine is totally innocent of any claims of wrongdoing

No, and you're again going to the absolute when clearly a dictionary shows us the word "relative" very much exists. Yes, statistically Ukrainian forces must have done some things that constitute a war crime.
No, it is not systematic and Ukraine surely does not use civilians as human shields.

Not only that but can you actually show how Amnesty's claims about the Ukraine was incorrect/fabricated and I line with a nefarious agenda/policy?

Yes. First, Amnesty has no real methodology.
Second, it does not have experts on military subjects.
These are the reasons why Amnesty's report is such an insult to common sense.
And now to disprove.
1. Military bases inside cities - the most logical thing to do when fighting against an invader. An invader comes to occupy the cities, and a defender defends the cities. Placing a garrison in a city is not a war crime, and is in fact how wars have been going for thousands of years. Cities are always key milestones.
Had Russia fired from inside its own cities, or from within Ukrainian cities, that would have been a war crime.

2. Firing into populated areas - eye witnesses are not a reliable source of information. They are a good way to complement a solid foundation of intel though, which in Amnesty's case was not presented.

• When a strike occurs, there's a long chain. There's the shooter, his sensors and intel, the projectile itself, the target, and its surroundings. Civilians only see a very limited part of that.
• Russia has a long history of documented false flag attacks and misfires, and many cases of shells and missiles landing in Donbas but being fired from the east (Russia's side) have been documented and presented to the public.
• Russian people are also indoctrinated by the Russian government to believe a certain narrative. All the time I see on Russian TV those people from Donbas giving their testimonies, seeing that they don't actually understand what they are saying, as if it's scripted.
• With the brutality displayed, I don't think any Russian would risk telling what he really thinks to any reporter.

That's your opinion - everyone has their own opinions and biases and you're certainly entitled to yours. As for bias towards terrorist organistions; that's a matter of opinion and debate; as is what really constitutes [never mind what Israel or the U.S. says] a "terrorist organisation".

Not a terrorist unless he's bothering me. I know that feeling. That's okay. But that's also a self defeating approach.

If Hamas, ISIS, Hezbollah, and Al Qaeda are not terrorists to you, then that's fine. They are terrorists to those involved in the region. But why talk as though you're involved in the region if you're disinterested in it?

You spoke about Amnesty and the supposed lack of lack of evidence; is there evidence that "bad actors" [to quote your good self] have actually bribed organisations such as Amnesty?

Beyond what I provided about Amnesty-China ties, I have nothing concrete that I can find a reference to.

 

[seaspear]

This report supplies some context re the Amnesty report
Amnesty International report sparks furor, resignation in Ukraine (cnbc.com)

 

[Feanor]

Let's get this back on track please. I understand one may take issue with Amnesty International and HRW, however a detailed discussion of their veracity in an unrelated conflict belongs in a different thread.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Apparently Russian Ka-52s firing on a Ukrainian vehicle near Kherson, allegedly a tank.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian strikes on the Antonov bridge.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strikes in and near Nikolaev.

Colonelcassad

В Николаеве новые ракетные прилеты. Сообщают о нескольких взрывах.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Кадры артиллерийских ударов по целям в окрестностях Николаева. Ранее появились сообщения о поражении позиций и техники 28 омбр ВСУ в Галициново к югу от города. #Николаев #Россия #Украина Источник: @rybar

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian command post of the 59th Bde, and Bayraktar control center, getting hit.

Одесское Общественное Телевидение Z

Точными ударами артиллерии уничтожен узел связи 59 отдельной мотопехотной бригады и центр управления байрактарами националистов в районе н.п. Луч Николаевской области. Отправилось к бандере более 10 боевиков.

t.me

Apparently a Ukrainian checkpoint getting hit by a Russian Lancet loitering munition in Kherson region. Russian loitering munition strikes have become increasingly common in this area.

Повёрнутые на войне

Ланцет передаёт привет блокпосту укров. @sashakots

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Continuing strike on Novaya Kahovka, presumably Ukrainian. Air defenses appear to be firing.

Рыбарь

Видео от жителей Новой Каховки. Судя по отдаленным и приглушенным звукам над городом работает ПВО. #Россия #Украина #Херсон @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Russian UAV-directed VDV strikes, Nikolaev region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Охота на танки: разведка ВДВ наводит артиллерию на бронетехнику ВСУ под Николаевом Наши товарищи из десанта бьют по целям противника, корректируя огонь с воздуха t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Разведка ВДВ помогает уничтожать позиции ВСУ под Николаевом Источник: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian Grads firing towards Nikolaev.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Battle damage to the Antonov bridge, done by Ukrainian strikes.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Footage has emerged apparently showing Ukrainian military commissariat drafting people at literal gunpoint in Nikolaev. It's unclear where this is taking place or what the context is.

Colonelcassad

Как идет процесс набора новых "защитников Украины" путем хватания случайных мужиков во дворах. Сразу видно, как они горят желанием защищать Украину. Все как один.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reflectors as decoys set up near the Antonov bridge, presumably to draw away radar-guided strikes.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly a Russian Mi-8 variant lobbing rockets, Zaporozhye area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine carried out a strike against a factory in Melitopol'. Extrapolating from common practice, it was probably being used by the Russian military in some form. Some of the rockets were allegedly intercepted.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ нанесли удар по Мелитополю из Запорожья Часть ракет сбиты ПВО армии России. Сообщают о попадании в бывший завод РЕФМА. Источник: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia is preparing a referendum for Zaporozhye region on rejoining Russia. It's interesting since no Russian push on the city has materialized, so presumably they will be annexing the rump region with Melitopol' as a capital?

Главное в Мелитополе

Исторический момент для Запорожской области – принято решение о проведении референдума о воссоединении с Россией! Глава Запорожской области поручил Избиркому области проработать вопрос о проведении Референдума.

t.me

Референдум о воссоединении Запорожской области с Россией

Официальная бумуга главы ВГА Запорожской области о начале подготовки проведения референдума о вхождении Запорожской области в состав России.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Russian recon unit, Nikolaev region.

Повёрнутые на войне

Наша разведка в Николаевской области.

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov. There appears to be an intensification of strikes there recently, unclear why.

Colonelcassad

‼️ В Харькове прогремели взрывы и после них начал ревет воздушная тревога (видео смотреть со звуком) 3 взрыва в районе Холодной горы в ряде районов пропадало свет. Возможно крупнокалиберные снаряды РСЗО. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Утренний прилет по Харькову.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Один из прилетов по Харькову.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Идут массированные удары по Харькову. Украинские каналы сообщают о более чем 10 прилетах по городу.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strikes on Chuguev.

Colonelcassad

"Искандеры" ударили по целям в районе Чугуева под Харьковом Источник: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian Grads firing, Kharkov region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The Izyum Salient.

Russian strikes on Kramatorsk.

Повёрнутые на войне

Утренняя работа артиллерии по всу в Краматорске.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues. Apparently we have evidence of Germany cluster munitions being used (1st link). Fires apparently burn after the strikes (4th link). Warning footage of corpses.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Продолжающиеся пожары после обстрела Киевского района Донецка. Источник: https://t.me/itsdonetsk

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Война Глазами Журналиста

Киевский район Донецка, продолжает гореть мебельная фабрика

t.me

Оперативные сводки

Украинские боевики продолжают обстрел Донецка. Под ударом оказались Киевский, Петровский и Куйбышевский районы города. На текущий момент известно, что в результате обстрела со стороны ВСУ погибли двое мирных жителей, еще трое получили ранения. @opersvodki

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ Последствия обстрела ул. Бирюзова, Киров кий район г. Донецка, 2 погибших, 4 раненных

t.me

Russian artillery working on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Горящий фронт под Артемовском. Наши войска продолжают перемалывать артиллерией передний край противника, дабы обеспечить взлом линии Зайцево-Кодема.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России нанесла удар по базе ВСУ в Артёмовске, объект охвачен огнём, детонируют боеприпасы Артиллерийские бои в районе продолжаются, в городе дым от мощных взрывов после обстрела t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Неофициальный Безсонов

Украинские позиции под Артёмовском (Бахмут) сейчас выглядят так. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Colonelcassad

В районе Артемовска уничтожен склад боеприпасов ВСУ.

t.me

Russian Grads firing towards Ugledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LNR artillery firing on Soledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 55th Motor-Rifles Nona-SVKs working near Seversk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR reservists firing D-20s on New York (an awkwardly named village in the area).

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Apparently a Ukrainian tank getting hit, allegedly near Peski with a Krasnopol' shell.

ИЗНАНКА

Эксклюзивные кадры уничтожения союзной артиллерией вражеского танка с помощью корректируемого снаряда «Краснополь» сегодня утром в районе Песок. ИЗНАНКА ★ t.me/The_Wrong_Side

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Apparently a Ukrainian MT-12 Rapira getting hit near Peski, possibly by a Krasnopol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian gun getting hit while being towed, near Avdeevka. I'm having a hard time making out what exactly got hit.

Colonelcassad

Накрытие тягача с артиллерийским орудием в районе Авдеевки. https://t.me/Giazint_Z

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian artillery getting destroyed near Avdeevka. I can't make out what exactly got hit but it went up pretty hard.

Colonelcassad

Кадры уничтожения позиции украинской артиллерии под Авдеевкой, откуда велись обстрелы Донецка. Источник: @The_Wrong_Side

t.me

DNR 11th Rgt using UAV-directed mortar fire near Avdeevka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Su-25s striking on Soledar.

Colonelcassad

Российские штурмовики работают по позициям ВСУ под Соледаром Источник: @zvezdanews

t.me

Russian Su-25s striking Mar'inka.

Colonelcassad

Грачи работают по позициям нацистов в Марьинке. Источник: @RtrDonetsk

t.me

LNR 6th Cossack Rgt engaged near Soledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Missile launches from inside DNR-controlled area. Targets unclear, but explosions took place in Kramatorsk near that time.

Colonelcassad

Из ДНР по врагу запущены ракеты Примерно в это же время в оккупированном ВСУ Краматорске прогремел мощный взрыв Источник: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Head of the DNR, Denis Pushilin visits rebel positions at Peski.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

UXO and mine clearing efforts in Mariupol' are allegedly nearing completion. Personally I'm doubtful.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

In Mariupol' 20 former Ukrainian police are sworn in, and will serve in the MVD of the DNR.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

The West.

We have unconfirmed reports Russian used hypersonic Kinzhal missiles against targets in Vinnitsa.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia.

A pile of footage from the Ukrainian strike on the Russian airbase in Novofedorovka.

Colonelcassad

Сообщают о каких-то взрывах в районе Сак в Крыму.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия ударов по Новофедеровке. Сообщают о 4 взрывах. https://t.me/voenacher

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще кадры взрывов на аэродроме в Новофедоровке. Отмечается вторичная детонация боеприпасов.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще Новофедоровка. Стоит отметить, что за новые прилеты принимают взрывы на самом аэродроме, где идет вторичная детонация боеприпасов.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще кадры взрывов. На видео "Базы" явно вторичная детонация БК на аэродроме. На подъезде к аэродрому пробки. К месту взрыва направлено много машин скорой помощи. Глава Крыма Сергей Аксенов выехал в Новофедоровку. Власти Крыма обещают скоро дать официальную информацию о случившемся...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Air defenses firing over Belgorod region and apparently hitting something.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A missile allegedly intercepted, Belgorod region.

Военкор Котенок

Точка-У, сбитая сегодня ранним утром в районе н.п. Колосково (Белгородская область). Били в направлении Валуек — крупного железнодорожного узла. По некоторым данным, ракет были три. Пытались ударить по расположению мотострелкового соединения, по жилым объектам и аэродрому. Все три ракеты были...

t.me

Russian governor of Kursk region, Starovoyt, claims a Ukrainian infiltrator attempt using a UAV on a local airbase was prevented.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Mi-28UB flying low over a river beach in Belgorod region. Russia has been patrolling border areas with helos recently in response to Ukrainian forces striking across the border.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Cossack volunteer training before heading to Ukraine. Note they have ZU-23-2s, AGS-17s, mortars, and quadcopters.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A full brigade of Cossack volunteers is apparently being formed in Russia, with multiple btlns.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A lengthy article has come out about the formation of volunteer btlns across Russia. In it are mentioned interesting examples of logistics volunteer units, and medical volunteer units, as well as at least one tank btln. This is in addition to the typical light infantry formation. Apparently many of these units are undergoing more training then Russian line infantry. Additionally it appears some of them are being given the opportunity to sign a contract with the Russian armed forces, which means that instead of going as unpaid volunteers with no official status or benefits, they will be actual Russian Army service members.

Формирование в России региональных и «национальных» добровольческих батальонов

Газета Коммерсантъ опубликовала материал Андрея Винокурова Специальная добровольческая операция. Как регионы формируют подразделения для участия в СВО на Украине о формировании в Российской Федерации региональных и национальных добровольческих батальонов…

bmpd.livejournal.com

Russian T-80BVs pulled out of storage, Tatarstan. Their ERA tiles are missing.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Misc.

Allegedly Russian VDV artillery hitting a Ukrainian SP howitzer. Note there appears to be a body flying out of it to the right. Location and context unclear.

Kotsnews

Артиллерия 7 воздушно-десантной дивизии уничтожает САУ противника. Корректировка ведется с БПЛА Zala. Если присмотреться, то можно увидеть, как вправо вылетает тело из расчета саушки. @sashakots

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Lancet loitering munition apparently striking a Ukrainian M-109, location unclear.

Военный Осведомитель

Уникальные кадры успешного попадания российского дрона-камикадзе "Ланцет" по движущейся украинской 155-мм САУ M109A3, поставленной из Норвегии (источником ошибочно идентифицирована как немецкая PzH 2000). В результате попадания раненный экипаж спешно покидает поврежденную установку. @deNaziFire

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian or rebel 2S7M firing, location and context unclear.

Zluchka Tactical

Денацификация украинских войск с помощью 2С7М Малка

t.me

Ukrainian L119 operations. Location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian improvised MLRS using an S-8 rocket pod from the back of a Mitsubishi pickup truck. The combat value of this combination is low.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Еще про пикапРСЗО ВСУ

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

На видео, используемые ВСУ самодельные РСЗО на шасси Mitsubishi L200, использующие 80-мм авиационные НУР С-8.

t.me

Another improvised MLRS apparently Ukrainian. This one is towing 9 Grad tubes by a SUV. In principle this is a perfectly workable solution, possibly cannibalized from a damaged or destroyed Grad.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Ещё одна украинская кустарная РСЗО – на этот раз с девятью направляющими от БМ-21 «Град», установленными на прицепе автомобиля. Криворожское направление. Источник: @milinfolive

t.me

Ukrainian forces have begun using HARM missiles, platform unclear, location and context unclear. Considering the difficulty of adapting the type to a Soviet aircraft, it's probably being done from a ground launcher.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A destroyed M-777, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Bastion-01 Grad variant destroyed. Location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a new downed Bayraktar. Location and context unclear, hard to be sure of veracity.

Повёрнутые на войне

Ладно, шутки шутками, а теперь к реальным успехам. Завалили Байрактар, южный фронт.

t.me

Russian T-90M with Nakidka, and now a roof cage, somewhere in Ukraine. Likely this is still the 27th Motor-Rifles near Kharkov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian or rebel T-62M, somewhere in the south. Location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Уголок Ситха

Танк союзных сил Т-62 на южном направлении.

t.me

Russian artillery column made of 2S3s and I think 2S5s, though the video description cites them as 2S4s. Location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

240-мм самоходные миномёты 2С4 «Тюльпан» и 152-мм дивизионные самоходные гаубицы 2С3 «Акация» группировки "V" союзных сил направляются "косить укроп" в зоне проведения СВО на Украине. Июль 2022 года. Источник: @ChDambiev

t.me

An interesting Ukrainian MT-LB with a Turkish RCWS that features machineguns, and Ukrainian Stugna ATGMs.

МТЛБ на все руки мастер

Видео используемого ВСУ бронированного тягача МТ-ЛБ с установленным турецким дистанционно управляемым боевым модулем Aselsan Serdar (модифицированный вариант известного боевого модуля Aselsan SARP Dual) c 12,7-мм и 7,62-мм пулеметами и пусковыми установками противотанковых управляемых ракет…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

NATO/EU.

Spain has apparently begun preparations for shipping M113s to Ukraine.

Испания приступила к отправке на Украину партии снятых с консервации бронетранспортёров M113

Испанские бронетранспортеры М113, обещанные Киеву, в скором времени поступят на вооружение ВСУ. Как пишет испанский ресурс Infodefensa, правительство Испании запустило механизм доставки бронетехники на Украину. Согласно озвученной информации, всего на Украину отправятся 20 (двадцать) гусеничных

topwar.ru

 

[Feanor]

I'm 5 days behind and can't seem to catch up. I'll keep trying, you'll have to be patient with me.

 

[ngatimozart]

I'm 5 days behind and can't seem to catch up. I'll keep trying, you'll have to be patient with me.

No excuse. Off to the gulag with you

You do damn fine work with your posts and we all appreciate the time and effort that you put in.

 

[Ananda]

lengthy article has come out about the formation of volunteer btlns across Russia. In it are mentioned interesting examples of logistics volunteer units, and medical volunteer units, as well as at least one tank btln. This is in addition to the typical light infantry formation. Apparently many of these units are undergoing more training then Russian line infantry. Additionally it appears some of them are being given the opportunity to sign a contract with the Russian armed forces, which means that instead of going as unpaid volunteers with no official status or benefits, they will be actual Russian Army service members.

This is interesting, in sense Russia recruiting something that close to trained volluenters. Is Russia have something that equivalent with US National Guard ?

 

[ngatimozart]

NZDF is sending another 120 soldiers to the UK to train Ukrainian forces. NZ sends further significant deployment to support Ukraine The NZ Govt feels that this is better than supply cash. The trainers will be training the Ukrainians at one of four locations in the UK and will concentrate on basic soldiering skills. Our people have done this before with foreign nationals and they're good at it.

ISW Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
August 14, 9:30 pm ET

Main Points.

• Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are operating in roughly six force groupings.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and made unspecified gains around Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Wagner force concentration in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast, inflicting casualties.
• Forty-two states called on Russian forces to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar, just two to four hours before another strike hit Enerhodar.
• Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivsky road bridge, likely keeping all three road bridges to and on the right bank of the Dnipro inoperable to heavy equipment.
• Russian military recruitment and enlistment centers continue to face challenges in incentivizing Russians to sign military service contracts.
• Russian occupation authorities continued rubleization measures and civilian data collection in occupied territories to set conditions for annexation referenda.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast; along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area; and Southern Ukraine. The Kharkiv City and Siversk-Lysychansk groups are likely built around cores drawn from the Western and Central Military Districts respectively. The Izyum-Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. Wagner Group private military company (PMC) soldiers are in the lead around Bakhmut, while forces drawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) predominate in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Troops from the Southern Military District (SMD) likely formed the original core of forces in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts but have been reinforced with troops of the Eastern Military District, Airborne Forces, and Rosgvardia. None of these groupings is homogeneous—elements of various military districts, proxy forces, volunteer units, and other formations are scattered throughout the theater.

These dispositions suggest that Moscow is prioritizing the advance around Bakhmut and, possibly, toward Siversk with its Russian forces while seeking to draw on the enthusiasm of DNR forces to seize ground they have failed to take since 2014 on the Avdiivka axis. The high concentration of volunteer battalions around Izyum and Slovyansk suggests that that area is not a focus of Russian attention and may be vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks. The congeries of forces in and around Kherson Oblast may pose significant challenges to Russian command and control, especially if Ukrainian forces press a counteroffensive there.

Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast:

Mainly Western Military District units

Russian force composition around Kharkiv City is at least in part composed of Western Military District (WMD) units. The Ukrainian General Staff has identified that Russian forces concentrated WMD units around Kharkiv City and in border areas of Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts (northeast of the city).[1]Russian offensive operations on this axis have generally been desultory and suggest a lack of focus, possibly reflected in more limited force deployments.

Izyum-Slovyansk line:

Mainly Volunteer Battalions and some Eastern Military District units

Russian forces are likely committing volunteer units and some remaining detachments of the Eastern Military District (EMD) to the Izyum-Slovyansk line and are likely deprioritizing the axis in favor of defending positions in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported that EMD elements that had previously supported offensive operations towards Slovyansk have been redeploying to the Southern Axis in an effort to defend occupied territories in western Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.[2] Russian outlets and Telegram channels have begun identifying and announcing recruitment for volunteer units operating near Izyum around reports of Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations. Russian media outlet Readovka reported that the volunteer Cossack detachments “Yermak” and “Kuban” are recruiting reinforcements for offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast, likely around Izyum given that Cossack units have been operating in the area since April.[3] Kremlin-affiliated outlet Kommersant also reported that the “Don” Cossack Detachment that has been fighting around Velyka Komyshyvakha (southwest of Izyum) since April is joining volunteer and other Cossack units (including the ”Kuban” detachment).[4] Russian war correspondent Sasha Kots reported that the “Russian Legion” is recruiting personnel to operate on the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[5] The “Russian Legion” has reportedly operated southeast of Izyum since entering Ukraine on May 12. Reliance on volunteer forces may explain the lack of Russian progress and some successful Ukrainian counterattacks on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.

Part 1 of 2

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. Part 2 of 2
August 14, 9:30 pm ET

Siversk-Lysychansk:

Central Military District with some DNR and LNR units

Units of the Russian Central Military District (CMD) and some LNR and DNR units are operating on the Siversk-Lysychansk axis and have resumed their offensive operations likely following an operational pause initiated in late July. CMD Commander Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin visited Lysychansk on August 8 and likely ordered CMD troops to resume offensive operations towards Siversk during his visit. The Russian Defense Ministry identified Lapin as responsible for securing Lysychansk on July 3, and he had likely continued to command the troops in the area since then.[6] The grouping has been consistently launching offensive operations in the Siversk area since August 8, whereas they had previously engaged in sporadic limited assaults usually at two-to-three-day intervals.[7] Social media footage published on Twitter on August 5 showed elements of the Russian 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the CMD reportedly operating in the direction of Siversk.[8] ISW has previously reported that Russian forces also moved a CMD battalion tactical group (BTG) to the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in late June.[9]

Bakhmut:

Wagner Group with LNR and some WMD units

Detachments of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) have been active in Russian efforts to gain ground around Bakhmut and have likely contributed to recent successes in this area. Various Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Wagner Group mercenaries were instrumental in the previous captures of Pokrovske (due east of Bakhmut), Klynove (18km southeast of Bakhmut), Novoluhanske (25km southeast of Bakhmut), and the Vuhlehirska Power Plant (about 20km southeast of Bakhmut).[10] Russian Telegram channels lauded the work of the Wagner Group in completing the tactically complicated capture of the Vuhlehirska Power Plant on July 26, showing the approval that the Russian information space has recently awarded the Wagner Group.[11] LNR units, such as the 6th Cossack Regiment, and other WMD detachments are operating in the Bakhmut direction as well.[12]

The Wagner Group also reportedly maintains a headquarters in Popasna, about 40km northeast of Bakhmut. A Russian miblogger posted imagery on Telegram of his reported visit to the Wagner Group headquarters, which he claimed was in Popasna, on August 9.[13] This location likely allows Wagner Group command to coordinate various offensive operations in northeastern Donetsk Oblast from well within Russian-occupied territory in Luhansk Oblast. Various Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed the headquarters on August 14, possibly based on geolocation of the aforementioned milblogger’s Telegram post.[14] The strike may impact Wagner’s command and control abilities in the Bakhmut area.

Avdiivka-Donetsk City:

DNR units

DNR units, which have been operating in the area since 2014, are operating in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area after likely having participated in operations to seize Luhansk Oblast. DNR-based milbloggers and war correspondents have been publishing footage of the DNR 1st Slavic Brigade, 5th Brigade, and the 11th Regiment making limited advances north and northwest of Donetsk City.[15] The DNR also began advertising volunteer recruitment for the DNR 100th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities have begun to mobilize men from Mariupol to join DNR efforts.[16] Readovka also identified that one unspecified Cossack detachment is operating around Mariinka, northwest of Donetsk City.[17] ISW has previously assessed that DNR-based milbloggers have increased their coverage of small-scale progress on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis likely in an effort to boost morale among DNR and Russian fighters.[18] It is likely that such coverage is aimed at recruiting more DNR fighters to support the attempted breakthroughs around Donetsk City.

Southern Ukraine:

Mixed

The Russian force composition along the Southern Axis is relatively more diverse than that of other axes. Russian military leadership has likely rushed a mix of forces to this area to defend it against an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, which likely explains the wide variety of force groupings in this area. ISW has observed elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) of the Eastern Military District (EMD), the 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet, the 49th CAA of the Southern Military District (SMD), 76th Guards Air Assault Division, and Rosgvardia throughout Southern Ukraine.[19]

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted on August 3 that Russian forces were sending elements of the 35th CAA to northern Kherson Oblast.[20] Various Ukrainian officials reported on August 3 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a command post of the 22nd Army Corps in Chornobaivka, on the outskirts of Kherson City.[21] Ukrainian forces additionally targeted control points of the 76th Air Assault Division in Chornobaivka on August 5.[22] Elements of the 49th CAA reportedly have been active on the western bank of the Dnipro River, particularly in the Snihurivka area of Mykolaiv Oblast.[23] Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Main Operational Department of the General Staff Oleksiy Gromov stated on August 4 that elements of Rosgvardia (Russia’s internal military force) moved to the eastern bank of Dnipro River, suggesting that Russian forces are prioritizing securing the defense of this bank.[24]

Full article: Institute for the Study of War
The pdf can be downloaded here.

 

[Feanor]

This is interesting, in sense Russia recruiting something that close to trained volluenters. Is Russia have something that equivalent with US National Guard ?

No. Russia has a National Guard but it's just a re-labeled Troop of the Interior. Russia has (had?) two brigades of contract reservists, one in West MD, and one in Siberia. These are (were? their status and continued existence is unclear) American-style reservists, namely units that serve one day a month, and one month a year, unless activated and deployed. Russia never figured out what to do vis-a-vis their reserve component. The Soviet-era mobilization system is obviously non-functional. No replacement was ever fully implemented. Shortly before the war Russia announced the creating of an autonomous combat reserve that would work with existing line units and provides reservists for them in some shape. The details never materialized.

I think this entire volunteer situation is idiotic. Great efforts are being made, and they will quite likely work well in this war. However, once the war is done, the volunteers go home, and the regular army is no better for experience learned or the structures formed. Note how many of these units boast quadcopters. How many regular Russian Motor-Rifle units have quadcopters for infantry support? Russia clearly has many people who want to serve, and experience from this war on which to learn. The logical thing would be to modify existing force-orgs and training programs, and direct these volunteers into existing units. Instead...

No excuse. Off to the gulag with you

Oh good, I need a vacation.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Reports came in alleging Wagner head was killed in a Ukrainian strike after footage of him visiting was posted on social media, which reportedly prompted a precision strike on the building.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558869697747107840