The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
This unit seems to be based at Kazachya Bukhta near Sevastopol. Ive never seen these dolphins in action, but i can imagine they are much more effective under water than humans.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
This unit seems to be based at Kazachya Bukhta near Sevastopol. Ive never seen these dolphins in action, but i can imagine they are much more effective under water than humans.
I remember the allegedly Russian trained Beluga, that was swimming around somewhere in Scandinavia :D. The poor boy, just wanted to play with humans..

What military service do the dolphins perform? Min clerance or reconnaissance missions to the submarine Moskva?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 2: Minor but important updates

1. I strongly suspect that this Belgorod fire is the result of Ukrainian special forces direct action (that they will not directly claim credit for). We are now certain that Ukraine is bringing the war into Russia. They are doing it selectively, while the Russian war in Ukraine is not going well. Not a great few hours for Russian logistics.

2. Until more information develops, we need to take with a pinch of salt initial reports that Ukrainians are able to hit targets with artillery at range (more than 20km from their forward edge of battle). But if this is true, then the shipment of 152mm artillery ammo to Ukraine has immediately affected the battle space geometry.

3. No matter how you look at it (be it as a Russian ammo handling accident or an artillery action by Ukraine), the fires at occupied Irmino (Luhansk Oblast), and at Belgorod (in Russia), cannot be comforting for the Russians.
 
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Cult Icon

New Member
A few open sourced attempts to identify the units in the Izyum salient. :

interactive map with attempts at unit identification and placement:


Ukr claims that 76th VDV has been restored (It was located in Kyiv West in the beginning of the war) and sent to Izyum.









old attempt on April 21:

 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: Minor but important updates

4. Australian (6?) and Canadian (4?) donated M777s are being flown into Poland and will be moved by road into Ukraine — once training is complete. Once these howitzers get into theatre, these 155mm/39 calibre howitzers can hit the enemy at 14km to 40 km range, depending on type of round used.

5. This has got to help with Ukraine’s morale — the arrival of the 1st of 3. Another 5 Bushmasters are in the process of being delivered to Rzeszow in Poland, which will grow the fleet to 8 and enough for initial convoy driving and dismount tactics training to begin.
256DA839-E75C-4DEE-B4D1-963CE49E7D10.jpeg

6. There is some more news of evil acts. “We have credible information that a Russian military unit operating in the vicinity of Donetsk executed Ukrainians who were attempting to surrender, rather than detaining them,” US Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice Beth Van Schaack said at the UN on 27 Apr 2022. “If true, this would be in violation of a core principle of the law of war: the prohibition against the summary execution of civilians and of combatants who are hors de combat by virtue of surrender, injury, or other forms of incapacitation.”

7. The executions are part of a mounting list of war crimes Russia has been accused of committing, with the others including targeting civilians, kidnapping children and taking them to Russia, torture and rape.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. I strongly suspect that this Belgorod fire is the result of Ukrainian special forces direct action (that they will not directly claim credit for). We are now certain that Ukraine is bringing the war into Russia. They are doing it selectively, while the Russian war in Ukraine is not going well. Not a great few hours for Russian logistics.

2. Until more information develops, we need to take with a pinch of salt initial reports that Ukrainians are able to hit targets with artillery at range (more than 20km from their forward edge of battle). But if this is true, then the shipment of 152mm artillery ammo to Ukraine has immediately affected the battle space geometry.
I believe it was UAVs. At least two (3?) Bayraktars were shot down in Russia. Russian sources claim 6 UAVs.


And two Warmates downed in Zaporozhye, Energodar, by Russia.


Air defenses firing over Belgorod.


Explosions in Belgorod.


Explosions in Kursk.


Impact in Bryansk.

 
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Twain

Active Member
7. The executions are part of a mounting list of war crimes Russia has been accused of committing, with the others including targeting civilians, kidnapping children and taking them to Russia, torture and rape.

I said in an earlier post, this isn't an army, this is a barbarian horde. Hard to call double tap strikes like this anything other than attempts to target vital civilian workers and make things as miserable for civilians as possible, much like all the hospitals that have been targeted.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The list of countries attending the "Ramstein meeting" is quite interesting.

Organizers said over 40 countries were attending and a scan of the meeting room showed countries mainly from Europe but also beyond, including Israel, Australia, Kenya and Tunisia, with representatives from South Korea and Japan attending virtually. All EU and NATO members were among the participants.
Ramstein meeting gives birth to global ‘contact group’ to support Ukraine – EURACTIV.com

I am surprised to see that countries like Israel, South Korea, Kenya, and Tunisia joined...

I am somewhat surprised that it seems Singapore did not attend? Or did the journalist just fail to report that?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The West and Russia a hostile relationship

I am surprised to see that countries like Israel, South Korea, Kenya, and Tunisia joined...

I am somewhat surprised that it seems Singapore did not attend? Or did the journalist just fail to report that?
EC8D31AF-1FA7-450B-9661-A81F0122BFFF.jpeg
1. The reporting is likely to be correct — it is very, very unlikely that Singapore will send weapons to Ukraine — but humanitarian aid (like first aid kits, medical equipment, medicines for rare diseases, hygiene and essentials), yes. Local fund raising efforts, yes. More than $1 per citizen/resident has been raised. Technical assistance, yes. A survey taken in early March 2022 by Blackbox Research, a pollster, found that 95% of Singaporeans sympathized with Ukraine and 60% backed sanctions on Russia. Only 4% said they opposed the sanctions.

2. If you would excuse my blunt reply, this is not a soccer game, where you cheer for one side or the other. Singapore, with an ageing population, is at best modernising to be threat relevant, for our threat matrix — the pocket is finite. In 2022, defence spending went up by 6.5%, and the minor levels of Malaysian hostility demonstrated in 2018, 2019 and 2021, has resulted in residual concerns.

3. A country takes a stance at the UN General Assembly based on its understanding of its interests. As a small country with a population 5.7 million, Singapore will support ‘rule of law’, actions blessed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions and on an exceptional basis, go against a P5 member to speak up — especially if they invade another country.
  • On 27 Apr 2022, Singapore along with 82 other UN member states of the UN General Assembly took action on UNGA resolution A/76/L.52 on a “Standing mandate for a General Assembly debate when a veto is cast in the Security Council." The resolution A/76/L.52, was adopted by consensus.
  • The General Assembly: (i) decided that its President shall convene a formal meeting of the 193‑member organ within 10 working days of the casting of a veto by one or more permanent members of the Council and hold a debate on the situation as to which the veto was cast; and (ii) invited the UNSC, in accordance with Article 24 (3) of the Charter of the United Nations, to submit a special report on the use of the veto in question, to the General Assembly at least 72 hours before the relevant discussion is to take place.
  • "We are particularly concerned by Russia's shameful pattern of abusing its veto privilege over the past two decades," said U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield. Good to see that both the US and UK place their diplomatic weight behind a UN General Assembly resolution that mandates that the General Assembly convene after any permanent Security Council member exercises its veto power; and will put a new resolution soon on the Mariupol Massacre forcing Russia to explain if they use a veto.
4. Chua Mui Hoong wrote recently in The Straits Times that Singapore's foreign policy decisions shouldn't be seen as "pro-West, anti-Russia or anti-China." Instead, "they are pro-Singapore."The city-state's officials have also sought to present their response to the invasion of Ukraine as based on Singapore's own interests.

5. IMO, this war in Ukraine will not resolve itself in the next few months — it might drag the West and Russia into a hostile relationship for the long haul. Next steps on how to manage this hostility between West and Russia, have yet to be decided.
 
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Cult Icon

New Member
How are commentators certain that the Russian executions are mostly committed by their army (through indiscipline and brutality) but instead are of a more organized nature and mostly committed by the police and paramilitary units ( FSB and National Guard) accompanying them, acting like their predessors the Soviet KGB/NKVD and deploying centuries old/traditional Russian means of pacifiying occupied areas & eliminating all potential resistance/dissidents.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kherson region is transitioning to the ruble for currency, with a 4 month transition time when both grivnas and rubles will be accepted. No independence referendum is planned at this time but it seems that there's no intent to return the region to Ukraine at all. It makes a sad sort of sense, between the relatively quick and easy (at least so far) occuption, the Crimean water situation, and the major security operations by the FSB there recently. I suspect we will see some sort of special administration regime for the area by Russia, with parts of Zaporozhye included, and other parts of Zaporozhye added to DNR control.
 

Twain

Active Member
I've been seeing several reports of M270 MLRS being seen in Ukraine but no official confirmation, call it a 50/50 chance.




I guess it wouldn't surprise me as it appears Biden is going all in now.

"President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress to approve $33 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The request includes $20.4 billion in additional security and military assistance for Ukraine and for U.S. efforts to strengthen European security in cooperation with NATO allies and other partners in the region. The resources would be used to put equipment into the hands of Ukraine's military and police and to help NATO defend against Russia in the long run."

Most reports say roughly $16 billion is earmarked for Ukraine, for perspective, the US has sent just over $3 billion in aid so far.


Additionally, The US is moving toward forcing russian oligarchs to forfeit property rather than it just being frozen, proceeds to go largely to Ukraine

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
I've been seeing several reports of M270 MLRS being seen in Ukraine but no official confirmation, call it a 50/50 chance.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ue4frw
Alleged M270s in Donestk. But no idea if this old stock footage or actual footage in Ukraine.
5. This has got to help with Ukraine’s morale — the arrival of the 1st of 3. Another 5 Bushmasters are in the process of being delivered to Rzeszow in Poland, which will grow the fleet to 8 and enough for initial convoy driving and dismount tactics training to begin.
View attachment 49208
Bushmasters being used.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/udc1ep
 

Twain

Active Member
I believe it was UAVs. At least two (3?) Bayraktars were shot down in Russia. Russian sources claim 6 UAVs.

Lots of fake TB2 shootdowns going around

 

Cult Icon

New Member
I have heard that the Russian conscription class of 2021-2022 has drawn approx. 25,000 volunteers for the Ukraine. (These have completed their training and are useable). A while back there was also a claimed XX,XXX reservist figure. Any Russian sources and reliable figures on this?

It looks like the probability of Russia declaring war on Ukraine is increasing by the day.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pinch of salt for some Pro-Russian & Pro-Ukraine sources — Part 1

1. Pro-Russian sources have been caught moving the same dead Ukrainian Army solider to different locations, to pretend that there are more causalities in an engagement. I am not sharing that link, as it is deliberate desecration of war dead.

2. As we discussed earlier, some Chechen fighters, are posting videos as war tourists rather than really doing the hard fighting to clear urban areas. Urban dictionary has now defined ‘TikTok Battalion’, as a common name for the Chechen fighters led by Kadyrov on the side of Russia during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, because they like to post on social media but there is virtually no proof of them really engaging in combat — but there are videos of them getting hurt, crossing a street, or getting first aid after being shot.

I believe it was UAVs. At least two (3?) Bayraktars were shot down in Russia. Russian sources claim 6 UAVs.
3. You might be right on the cause of the Belgorod fire but on the issue of Ukrainian TB-2 losses, the Russian count is very problematic — they have been caught moving around the same TB-2 wreak to a different location to pretend it’s more than one shoot down.

Lots of fake TB2 shootdowns going around
4. Agreed. Even mainstream media have picked up this trend of the Russians faking a TB-2 shoot-down.

Alleged M270s in Donestk. But no idea if this old stock footage or actual footage in Ukraine.
5. This is likely to be fake. It makes no sense to transfer M270s, as it is maintenance intensive compared to HIMARS. The greater issue is that Ukraine does not have the sense-strike capability to use these advanced MLR systems.

6. I see little evidence of Ukrainian capability for reconnaissance-strike — I think Ukraine has limited or no ability to conduct the type of the long range fires to hit Russian troop concentrations dynamically, that NATO forces can do routinely. They need to see far, to shoot far. The donated 155mm artillery will give Ukraine the ability to shoot at around 40km away. For HIMARS, you need to see 80km away from the forward edge of the battle area, to engage in these deep fire missions.
 
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Twain

Active Member
Here's the latest episode of potential theft and war crimes



I've seen two videos like this so far, looking for the second one now as I forgot to bookmark it.


We'll see where this sorts out, I'd like to see some more proof but it wouldn't surprise me. The russians seem to be intent on stealing anything they haven't blown up.

From a different perspective, militarily, indiscriminately shelling town and cities, spending time stealing everything in sight, is not a good use of limited resources. Every missile and shell that is used to hit civilian areas is one that can't be used against legitimate military targets. Every truck loaded with washing machines is one truck that isn't hauling rations, ammo etc. Every soldier spending time looting is time not spent fighting, (let alone the discipline and morale issues) I'd include moral issues too but russia doesn't care about that, if anything their goal is to terrorize the population.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
3. You might be right on the cause of the Belgorod fire but on the issue of Ukrainian TB-2 losses, the Russian count is very problematic — they have been caught moving around the same TB-2 wreak to a different location to pretend it’s more than one shoot down.
Thanks for catching it. It's the type of thing I sadly have less time for these days. I still think UAVs were the cause.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kiev Area.

Some sources claim that some civilians in Bucha were killed by flechette darts, from artillery shells.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.


Smashed Ukrainian positions, Nikolaev area. Warning footage of corpses. Note, the video is two days old, yet we have no information on this battle.


Ukrainian forces were apparently defeated in a battle in western Kherson region, near the village of Aleksandrovka. Warning footage of corpses.


Russia hit a key rail bridge near Odessa, twice. The first strike failed to take out the bridge, no confirmation on the second strike.


Ukraine launched a Tochka strike at Kherson, Russia apparently intercepted at least one missile.


Russian ships off the coast of Odessa.


Russian National Guard near the canal in Kherson region.


Russian security forces have found a fully loaded Ukrainian 2S3 abandoned in Kherson region. Finds like this have occurred recently as Russian and rebel security forces move through areas and find equipment left behind by retreating Ukrainian troops.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Two US fighters were wounded in Zaporozhskaya region. They're Javelin operators.


A Ukrainian warehouse in an aluminum plant was destroyed by a Russian strike, it was allegedly being used to store weapons.


Russian strikes, Dnepropetrovsk.


Cruise missile over Zaporozhye.


Russia hit a power substation that supports the railway, in allegedly Pavlograd.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian Su-34 apparently shot down near Balakleya.


We have reports that the recent fighting at Kazach'ya Lopan' involved the T-90M tank.


Allegedly, Russian air defense MANPADS team took out a Ukrainian helo near Dergachi.


Ukrainian BM-27 taken out at Geevka, Kharkov region.


Two BTR-4s stuck and captured in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian BMP-1 captured by allegedly Russian National Guard in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian BTR-4 and guntrucks captured in Kharkov region. The BTR-4 might be one of the two above.


More footage of captured Ukrainian munitions and weapons out of Balakleya.


Western anti-tank weapons captured in Kharkov region.


Russian security forces operating in Kupyansk, where they allegedly found a weapons cache.

 
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